Got this from the Minnesota Board
- Thread starter cubuffsdoug
- Start date
That isn’t the debate. The debate is whether we’d make it if we lost all 3.
I think there is a 5-10% chance we lose out, but that isn’t the debate
You don’t even know what is being argued. If we lose all three, and we still believe RU has a 70% chance from there, then, yes we are prolly more than 95% of making tourney right now.
when you put it in the hands of the committee all bets are off so you really want to do the things that do not put you around the last 6 or so schools in the field
He averages over 20 ppg and 8 rpg. That’s a big deal. Obviously, Iowa was able to beat their crosstown rivals without him but when you take Connor out of the equation too the team becomes a shell of what it otherwise is. Whether he ends up in the mix for national awards or not. They should still beat EI, yes, but I don’t think there’s any way they lose if Murray plays that game.
I think Rutgers should get consideration for missing Caleb and Paul vs Temple for the same reason, but it probably won’t stand out as much for the committee to take notice. 1) temple isn’t close to as bad and 2) the guys we were missing are glue guys and don’t have eye popping stats like Murray.
A lock means you still get in the worst possible scenerio - meaning you lose out. obviously - the discussion becomes about whether we’d get in in that hypothetical 18-14 scenerio. We could get in but very few teams are ever solidly locked in with 14 losses.
exactly.. you just know that there will be people in the room (all of whom have vested interests) who will say that this is not the Rutgers team that built the solid resume. They will use "eye test" and "not among the 30-x best right now". Even if they think the total resume earns a spot.. they have an argument against... which they will use, given the chance.. to help get one of their own in. They are human. Heck.. I could even see the big Ten rep arguing in favor of a different Big Ten team over Rutgers (as an aside because they cannot discuss Big Ten teams when they specifically come up for consideration).
With 2 losses we are more likely than not out.
I think we will win tomorrow, but calling us a lock was silly and wrong.
We were never even a near lock. With a loss tomorrow the following game is must win. We will not be in with 2 more straight losses. I think the odds would be very low.
Agree...even if in a better spot tomorrow with a win we are not a lock..we are likely but not a lock
Yet when we win expect dozens of posters to declare lock
Yet when we win expect dozens of posters to declare lock
“Likely” seems optimistic even, to be honest. What would you put our odds at getting in with a first round loss to Michigan in an 8/9 game at 19-13? Possible sure, but better than 50%?
Let’s put it this way. In 2019-20 we were in much better position going into the game with Michigan. With a loss, we’d have been no better than a 10 seed.
The way I see it - tomorrow is must win at this point or we basically need an autobid. We don’t have the SOS to get in with 14 losses, a 10-10 conference record and as many bad losses as we have.
The committee doesn’t care about the last 2 days of the conference tournies. See A&M’s ommission. Indiana only making play in.
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