The latest NAM run is great for snow lovers. 4-8 inches across much of NJ.
Will the other 0z models follow?
Will the other 0z models follow?
OT: Another Minor/Moderate,Snow Event on Friday (1/19); Still Some Uncertainty
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First thing I looked at after getting home from that incredible win at the RAC tonight. Still fired up.
I remember in the 80’s going to wrestling practice in a blizzard. Today they would fire the coach for making us attend
The game, lol - see my thread on the hoops board. The NAM run was pretty nice, though...
Wow, Lee Goldberg, who's usually fairly conservative, just called for 3-6" for much of CNJ, all of SNJ (except the SE coast) and a big chunk of EPA/northern DE, with the 3" line running very close to 78 from about Allentown to Elizabeth and then to the Southern Parkway on LI, with 3-6" south of that line and 1-3" north of that line. South of that line is where he and many other pros are thinking the Norlun Trough sets up and focuses the most lift and snow.
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Hot off the presses, the NWS-Philly upped snowfall forecasts again. As I said elsewhere, I'm astounded by this, as the 12Z (and previous runs) Euro, UK, and GFS generally have 1-2" for this storm (even using Kuchera), while only the NAM, CMC and SREFs have more than 3" anywhere. I know they know way more about meteorology than anyone here, but this is unusual. At least the NBM (model blend) is much greater than the GFS/UK/Euro and not far below the NBM, but I don't recall seeing 3 of the 4 major globals discounted at this range.
Edit - well, maybe not so aggressive, lol. Mike Masco just came out with his first call and it's pretty bullish, especially from about 10 miles N of 195/276 and southward almost to Delaware Bay, where he has a 4-6" swath from the inverted trough, mainly, as per the graphic, below.
Edit #2: NWS-NYC also just upped their snowfall forecasts by about an inch across the board vs. this morning, with 2-3" for NYC and most of SENY (below the Tappan Zee) and 3-4" for extreme southern NYC and southern LI.
Despite lack of support for more than 3" of snow from the global models, the NWS-Philly is doubling down that the mesoscale and higher resolution models, which show more for much of the area, will be correct, and have bumped snowfall totals up a bit more, issuing advisories for 3-5" of snow for every county covered by their office in PA/NJ that is north of 276/195, i.e., Monmouth, Middlesex, Mercer, Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Warren and Sussex in NJ and Upper Bucks, NW Montco, the Lehigh Valley and Poconos in NE PA.
They've also issued advisories for 2-5" for Ocean, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem in NJ and Lower Bucks, SE Montco, Philadelphia, Chester and Delaware in SE PA and Newcastle in DE. Maps are below, as well as the NBM (model blend) map, which does support the 3-5"/2-5" amounts for many.
The NWS-NYC has held off on advisories until they have more confidence in their counties reaching 3+" of snow. They're generally predicting 2-4" of snow for NENJ (Union up to Bergen), NYC, LI and SENY south of the Tappan Zee and 1-2" north of there. Needless to say, bust potential is high, as the uncertainty level in predicting exactly where these inverted trough features with heavier precip will hit is quite high, even now, 24 hours before the precip starts.
Precip should start around sunrise and continue at light to moderate intensity through the early evening with temps predicted to be at or below 32F the entire day everywhere N of 195, while coastal areas in SENJ and south of about a Dover to AC line, will likely have temps that hit the mid-30s, leading to some mixing and rain; in-between there, temps may reach about 33-34F but the precip is expected to remain snow there. Everywhere will be below 32F through the late morning, so accumulation should occur on all but untreated surfaces easily during that time and will still accumulate easily for the areas expected to remain all snow.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
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Well, so much for meetings in North Jersey tomorrow
Guess I'll head home back to Monmouth County tonight and prepare for the inevitable
Guess I'll head home back to Monmouth County tonight and prepare for the inevitable
Whatever happens, my house and street in Montclair will be on the high end snow side of the precipitation line.
That’s a given
That’s a given
Main snowfall should be between about 7 am and 7 pm, roughly, with some fairly light snow a few hours before and after that window. Here's the hourly weather graphic for NB, which should suffice for most of CNJ.
Prediction for school closures in monmouth county?Main snowfall should be between about 7 am and 7 pm, roughly, with some fairly light snow a few hours before and after that window. Here's the hourly weather graphic for NB, which should suffice for most of CNJ.
Nam and Rgem are just 2-3 inches in NJ with Euro/gfs 1-2
Mt holly obviously going higher to cover their asses for where the norlun trough sets up...a likely narrow path that overacheives with 4-5 inch amounts. Figuring where that sets up is almost impossible to pin down
Mt holly obviously going higher to cover their asses for where the norlun trough sets up...a likely narrow path that overacheives with 4-5 inch amounts. Figuring where that sets up is almost impossible to pin down
As I said earlier, I'm skeptical of the high amounts from the NWS-Philly, but in fact, they just tweaked their forecast even slightly higher for many. Sounds like the key here, from reading the boards (and answers to a couple of questions of mine) is that it's likely they (and other forecasters showing 3-6" amounts for much of our area) are giving more credence to the high resolution models, like the NAM3K, the HRRR, the WRF, etc., as they believe that mesoscale banding, which is expected in an inverted trough situation like this, will be better forecasted by high resolution models using smaller grid spacing (the globals generally have 9-13 km grid spacing while the high res models typically are in the 2-4 km range).
And these high res models have generally been showing greater snowfall amounts than the global models, as indicated best by the HREF model, which combines a host of high-res model output from several high res models and and is showing 4-6" for most of our region south of 80 down through most of SNJ/SEPA with 2-4" outside that area. That's the best I can do to figure out why the NWS-Philly forecast is a fair amount snowier than the global models, which are generally showing 1-3".
I honestly don't know what to expect as I just don't know enough about the detailed modeling and how these folks use the various models and how they weight them to get their forecasts, but I remain skeptical that most of the area will be getting 3-6" - I think that area will likely be much smaller than the NWS is showing and it seems more likely that will be close to 276/195 with more like 2-4" for most of CNJ, which is why I'm going with 3.3" prediction for my house (similar to the NBM). We'll see soon...
Decent probability as Monmouth has been in the bullseye for highest amounts in many models, although it's very possible they'll hedge and do early dismissal, as roads probably won't be bad at all at 6 am when most make their decisions.
well the nams especially the 3k did cut back significantly at 12zAs I said earlier, I'm skeptical of the high amounts from the NWS-Philly, but in fact, they just tweaked their forecast even slightly higher for many. Sounds like the key here, from reading the boards (and answers to a couple of questions of mine) is that it's likely they (and other forecasters showing 3-6" amounts for much of our area) are giving more credence to the high resolution models, like the NAM3K, the HRRR, the WRF, etc., as they believe that mesoscale banding, which is expected in an inverted trough situation like this, will be better forecasted by high resolution models using smaller grid spacing (the globals generally have 9-13 km grid spacing while the high res models typically are in the 2-4 km range).
And these high res models have generally been showing greater snowfall amounts than the global models, as indicated best by the HREF model, which combines a host of high-res model output from several high res models and and is showing 4-6" for most of our region south of 80 down through most of SNJ/SEPA with 2-4" outside that area. That's the best I can do to figure out why the NWS-Philly forecast is a fair amount snowier than the global models, which are generally showing 1-3".
I honestly don't know what to expect as I just don't know enough about the detailed modeling and how these folks use the various models and how they weight them to get their forecasts, but I remain skeptical that most of the area will be getting 3-6" - I think that area will likely be much smaller than the NWS is showing and it seems more likely that will be close to 276/195 with more like 2-4" for most of CNJ, which is why I'm going with 3.3" prediction for my house (similar to the NBM). We'll see soon...
ukmet, gfs, rgem also cutting back to the 1-2.5 inch range. Euro up next
Hrrr still bullish as it usually is with the 4-5 inch amounts
the possibility of higher ratios does lean toward higher amounts and of course where the norlun sets up.
I am skeptical of the widespread 3 to 6 but I get why they are forecasting it.
overall should be about a 12-15 hour storm, gfs has it only about 12 while the nam had it starting earlier and ending later.
Sounds like the type of storm where, if the road crews are even marginally on their game, they should be able to stay ahead of this on the highways.
Euro coming in with 1-2 inches a bit higher down in south jersey..about 12 hour event
so its the modelling vs the mets...and thats why I point out when the models spit out ridiculous amounts and the mets do not bite on them, same situation here. Models have lighter amounts but the mets not biting. Models are not everything. You cannot just hug clown maps. Mets know more than EVERYONE here and they use their professionalism and skill and hone in on how to inform the public. They will usually err on the side of caution here so the higher amounts given the chance for higher ratios which do surprise sometimes and the set up of the norlun trough. So we wait to see expecting a minor to potentially moderate type event that will impact travel all day tomorrow. Schools might be able to squeak in a half day since they already lost a day this week and some also had a delay and then some lost a day last week for flooding.
so its the modelling vs the mets...and thats why I point out when the models spit out ridiculous amounts and the mets do not bite on them, same situation here. Models have lighter amounts but the mets not biting. Models are not everything. You cannot just hug clown maps. Mets know more than EVERYONE here and they use their professionalism and skill and hone in on how to inform the public. They will usually err on the side of caution here so the higher amounts given the chance for higher ratios which do surprise sometimes and the set up of the norlun trough. So we wait to see expecting a minor to potentially moderate type event that will impact travel all day tomorrow. Schools might be able to squeak in a half day since they already lost a day this week and some also had a delay and then some lost a day last week for flooding.
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I applaud all of the knowledgeable posters for the fact based posts absent any extraneous material. Very refreshing.
Yes.
Dammit, what happened? Went from rain event earlier yesterday to 3.5-5" in South Monmouth. Plugged in the electric start on the snowblower, gassed it up for first time in 3 years(?), and it fired right up, so we have that going for us. @e5fdny and @koleszar -your snowblowers in the ready position?
Yes.
* Gassed up, started and I even ordered a cover on Amazon for my Toro.
We’re good.
* Edited to add I even bought some gas so we’re really good. LOL
Still have 1" to 3" in Howell so I'm going to gamble on this one as well. So I'm going to be a maverick here and live life on the edge.
18z nam wasnt good for snow lovers north of 78
Meanwhile mt holly has winter storm warnings now for monmouth ocean burlington 4-7 inches
Meanwhile mt holly has winter storm warnings now for monmouth ocean burlington 4-7 inches
I'd come over with my snowblower in the back of my pickup but:
(1) might get stuck at the Allaire bridge project;
(2) according to experts on these boards, my EV Lightning might freeze and die while stuck at the bridge.
Too risky, you're on your own!
As I said earlier, I'm skeptical of the high amounts from the NWS-Philly, but in fact, they just tweaked their forecast even slightly higher for many. Sounds like the key here, from reading the boards (and answers to a couple of questions of mine) is that it's likely they (and other forecasters showing 3-6" amounts for much of our area) are giving more credence to the high resolution models, like the NAM3K, the HRRR, the WRF, etc., as they believe that mesoscale banding, which is expected in an inverted trough situation like this, will be better forecasted by high resolution models using smaller grid spacing (the globals generally have 9-13 km grid spacing while the high res models typically are in the 2-4 km range).
And these high res models have generally been showing greater snowfall amounts than the global models, as indicated best by the HREF model, which combines a host of high-res model output from several high res models and and is showing 4-6" for most of our region south of 80 down through most of SNJ/SEPA with 2-4" outside that area. That's the best I can do to figure out why the NWS-Philly forecast is a fair amount snowier than the global models, which are generally showing 1-3".
I honestly don't know what to expect as I just don't know enough about the detailed modeling and how these folks use the various models and how they weight them to get their forecasts, but I remain skeptical that most of the area will be getting 3-6" - I think that area will likely be much smaller than the NWS is showing and it seems more likely that will be close to 276/195 with more like 2-4" for most of CNJ, which is why I'm going with 3.3" prediction for my house (similar to the NBM). We'll see soon...
The NWS not only hasn't backed down given the general decrease in snowfall amounts seen at 12Z for most models, but they upped snowfall amounts a bit more, especially between about Rt 33 and a line from Wilmington, DE to LBI, where the NWS-Philly has winter storm warnings up (counties in pink, below) for Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Salem in NJ and Philly and its nearby N and W suburbs, for 5-6" of snow (and this is 6-7" of snow for Monmouth). Inland Atlantic and Cumberland have advisories for 2-4" and coastal Ocean, coastal Atlantic and Cape May only have advisories for 1-3"" due to some likely mixing/changing to rain.
Advisories are still up for 3-5" for all of the NWS-Philly counties N of the warning counties, i.e., the Lehigh Valley and Poconos in PA and Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Warren and Sussex in NJ, while the NWS-NYC advisories in adjacent Union/Essex/Hudson/Bergen/Passaic, as well as NYC/LI are for only 2-3" so there's clearly a difference in opinion between the two offices on this. My personal opinion, shared by many mets/experts on the weather boards, is that it's really unlikely to get more than 3" N of 78 and especially N of 80. Lee Goldberg, for example, has N of 78 only getting 1-3", but does have 3-6" south of 78. That's why I'll stick with my forecast of 3.3" for my house in Metuchen. The higher amounts south of 78, especially near 195 and south of there make sense assuming that's where the best inverted trough banding sets up.
Maps are below from the NWS, including a more detailed snowfall map for our entire region with many more locations detailed with forecast amounts (the NDFD map, which adjusts for ratios), plus I included the NBM (model blend map), which also includes adjustments for ratios likely being in the 14-18:1 range (inches of snow per inch or liquid), which is well above the typical 10:1 ratio, given the entire atmospheric column being below 32F and with good crystal growth expected, i.e., this will very likely be a fairly fluffy snow (low bulk density).
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...n-part-of-the-nyc-subforum-event-obs/page/20/
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Still not buying more than 3" anywhere north of 78; the higher amounts south of there, especially near 195 and south of there make sense assuming that's where the best inverted trough banding sets up.
someone will bust on high and lows sides...the question is where
Dan Zarrow on 107.1 the boss says "the coast" will get mixing and closer to 1". Blow some of that warm coastal air West towards us over here. I'm going to fill the 5 gallon tank in a bit.
You don't fill it with sunshine, like your truck?
Tried that--could not get the electrons into the carburetor. Working on a new invention.
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