OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?
- Thread starter Doteman
- Start date
- Status
I predict one thing. There will be sniping between the two board weather-tards. One of the best parts of the free board.
I predict another thing. Someone will start another thread on the storm. Dueling storm threads is one of the other great parts of the free board.
I predict another thing. Someone will start another thread on the storm. Dueling storm threads is one of the other great parts of the free board.
Early buzz from the MILF's at Hillsborough Deli is 12 to 18 inches. Could go out to sea and could be rain. Too far out lets see by Wed.
Way too early in the game to know anything..all we know is thereci potiential. Amounts shouldn't be discussed because this could also easily go out to sea. Pattern has been progressive and this storm wrapping up would be at odds with the pattern. So have to get more models runs in before any honking goes on
Aw hell!! guess that means a blizzard is coming!! [jumpingsmile][laughing][jumpingsmile][laughing][jumpingsmile][laughing]
and the GFS was more progressive with its latest run so those insane totals were cut waaaaaay down. So as I said things are way too early in the game with this storm
Won't happen. I bought winter boots yesterday.
Might happen - my snowblower is broken.
Snowing in Philly now. Big flakes sticking to ground.
Winter weather advisory for 1 to 3 inches for South jersey
For Central NJ snow toaday less than an inch
Numbers and Bac are slipping. That's 2 events that have been missed by them.
Winter weather advisory for 1 to 3 inches for South jersey
For Central NJ snow toaday less than an inch
Numbers and Bac are slipping. That's 2 events that have been missed by them.
As GFS cut down totals, Euro just came in showing a stronger storm. Around 2 feet from Baltimore to southern new England.
Models will flip flop all week. Stay tuned.
This is, by far, our best chance of snow, so far, this winter. Today's models are showing pretty good consistency on a major winter storm (8" or more for almost everyone, if the models are correct) for the mid-Atlantic and the northeast for Friday night and Saturday; this includes the Euro, which has been advertising such a winter storm for a couple of days now (and the Euro is still the best model).
Now, we're still 5-6 days out, so a lot can still go "wrong," for snowlovers, i.e., the storm could come too far inland and bring rain for most (but snow in the NW suburbs) or it could slide off the coast too far to the east, such that the I-95 corridor only gets some light snows. The storm could even "vanish" i.e., completely miss us or fail to develop: the main pieces of energy are still in the poorly sampled (from a data ingestion into the models perspective) Pacific Ocean, so much can still change from now until Friday night.
Having provided all those caveats, it's looking highly likely that we'll at least see our first non-trivial (i.e., more than 1" widespread) snowfall of the season with this storm and I'd say it's at least a 50-50 probability of it being our first significant (4" or more) snowfall of the season - and it's at least a 10-20% probability of this being a major snowfall with 8-12" or more. The pattern is good for snowfall with plenty of cold air and a good lucking jet stream setup.
DT (WxRisk) is barking and he's fairly conservative in calling for big snows, so this one is definitely worth watching closely, although Spanky and friends shouldn't start buying up milk and bread quite yet, lol. If interested, here's his post on the thread and below that is the AmericanWx thread:
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47642-possible-jan-2223-coastal-storm-discussion/page-2
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/
Don't think anyone north of 195 will get more than 1/2" from today's snowfall, but there could be 1-2" south of there, especially towards the coast, with advisories up for Atlantic/Cape May/Cumberland counties for 1-2"). But I'd still love to see some falling snow and a coating to 1/2" given the nothing we've had so far this winter.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
Now, we're still 5-6 days out, so a lot can still go "wrong," for snowlovers, i.e., the storm could come too far inland and bring rain for most (but snow in the NW suburbs) or it could slide off the coast too far to the east, such that the I-95 corridor only gets some light snows. The storm could even "vanish" i.e., completely miss us or fail to develop: the main pieces of energy are still in the poorly sampled (from a data ingestion into the models perspective) Pacific Ocean, so much can still change from now until Friday night.
Having provided all those caveats, it's looking highly likely that we'll at least see our first non-trivial (i.e., more than 1" widespread) snowfall of the season with this storm and I'd say it's at least a 50-50 probability of it being our first significant (4" or more) snowfall of the season - and it's at least a 10-20% probability of this being a major snowfall with 8-12" or more. The pattern is good for snowfall with plenty of cold air and a good lucking jet stream setup.
DT (WxRisk) is barking and he's fairly conservative in calling for big snows, so this one is definitely worth watching closely, although Spanky and friends shouldn't start buying up milk and bread quite yet, lol. If interested, here's his post on the thread and below that is the AmericanWx thread:
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47642-possible-jan-2223-coastal-storm-discussion/page-2
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/
Don't think anyone north of 195 will get more than 1/2" from today's snowfall, but there could be 1-2" south of there, especially towards the coast, with advisories up for Atlantic/Cape May/Cumberland counties for 1-2"). But I'd still love to see some falling snow and a coating to 1/2" given the nothing we've had so far this winter.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
Still way out. NOAA currently has a 30% chance for Saturday. If temp projection is correct would likely be rain along the coast during the day.
The Euro and Canadian models have a historic snowstorm for Saturday, as do their ensemble members. As someone pointed out, the GFS is notorious for losing east coast snowstorms in the day 3-5 timeframe, so I'm not too concerned about that. The PNA spike day 3, and Atlantic blocking pattern are favorable and lend credence to the big East Coast storm idea. The development and strengthening of today's storm will have some influence on things.
Both the 12z GFS and the 12z Canadian continue to show the potential snowstorm for the upcoming weekend. Euro is up next this afternoon.
For those waiting for the euro model it shows a big snowstorm for next weekend. Again long way to go and a lot can change and probably will.
People are free to speculate about 1-2 foot amounts as they are in the realm of possibility, but there's no professional meteorologist on the planet who would actually predict that kind of snowfall 5-6 days in advance. I've said this a million times, but I'll say it again: weather is, by nature, chaotic, meaning small differences/uncertainties in initial conditions (inherent in meteorology, since the 3-D data inputs, globally, are sparse and fraught with errors) lead to propagating errors downstream, i.e., the uncertainty in any forecast increases day-by-day.
This is akin to the "cone of uncertainty" for a hurricane's track, showing the potential track outcomes becoming wider and wider every day), such that 5-6 days out the uncertainty in any forecast is quite high, especially when it comes to predicting a complex storm taking shape from multiple sources of energy thousands of miles away. So have some fun with it and keep an eye on the forecast, but I wouldn't worry or start planning around it yet (unless you have to travel and have the ability to be flexible).
Nice little snowfall today - got a quick 1/4" in Metuchen and think we might get 1/2". Areas down the Shore supposedly already have an inch or more, especially south of Toms River. Temps are still around freezing, so during daylight hours, don't expect any accumulation on roads - but any snow that falls after 5 pm should accumulate on roads after sunset. Advisories were expanded north to include SE Burlington, Ocean and Monmouth, where 1-2" could fall, especially near the coast.
This is akin to the "cone of uncertainty" for a hurricane's track, showing the potential track outcomes becoming wider and wider every day), such that 5-6 days out the uncertainty in any forecast is quite high, especially when it comes to predicting a complex storm taking shape from multiple sources of energy thousands of miles away. So have some fun with it and keep an eye on the forecast, but I wouldn't worry or start planning around it yet (unless you have to travel and have the ability to be flexible).
Nice little snowfall today - got a quick 1/4" in Metuchen and think we might get 1/2". Areas down the Shore supposedly already have an inch or more, especially south of Toms River. Temps are still around freezing, so during daylight hours, don't expect any accumulation on roads - but any snow that falls after 5 pm should accumulate on roads after sunset. Advisories were expanded north to include SE Burlington, Ocean and Monmouth, where 1-2" could fall, especially near the coast.
Should be fun. I'm looking forward to the first bust of the year! December was mild and so has/will be January. The people that cheer for snow are down to February, that's it!
Snow showers have been in today's forecast for a couple of days, as we were always going to be on the northern fringe of the storm, which still mostly missed us out to sea. The precip shield simply came further NW than expected even 12 hours ago. Call it a minor bust. It happens. As of the 4 am forecast, places down the shore were expecting a coating to up to 1/2" and will likely get 1-1.5" and places along I-95 were expecting maybe a dusting, if anything, and will get about 1/2", which is what we now have in Metuchen.
Yes, the pattern shifted in early January (it's been much closer to normal, temp-wise, as opposed to the outrageous warmth of Nov/Dec), but we just haven't been lucky enough to get significant snow yet - have to get the cold air and the precip to coincide, which just hasn't happened yet. A little taste today and hopefully a lot more this weekend.
Last edited:
Snow shower only. Nothing is sticking to sidewalks or roads, so essentially, it's meaningless snow.
- Status
