“It ain’t happening games?”

[zebnatto]

I think the league this year is incredibly balanced. I am going to define an “It ain’t happening”game as one in which it’s so certain that one team would be victorious over the other that you would not even take 10 to one odds on the underdog. If it moves the needle, shift that to eight to one. Let’s assume, to simplify, that all games are played on a neutral court. It seems to me that while there are occasional blowouts occur, they are entirely unpredictable. More often than not the games go deep into final few minutes, the weaker-record teams are in the game, but don’t have the player who can close it for them, or can’t make foul shots, or are too inexperienced, or are missing a key player to injury, or get a couple of bad calls by the refs in the final few minutes . But I know that I for one would not be $10 to win $1 or $100 to win 10 on any game in the league. (Or $80 to win $10). So I’m saying that outside of home/road games Which may alter the equation there are no “ain’t gonna happen games” in the B1G. Agree or disagree?

 

[fluoxetine]

Even with home/away the most lopsided possible games in the conference are probably right around 90/10 or slightly closer.

 

[zebnatto]

Even with home/away the most lopsided possible games in the conference are probably right around 90/10 or slightly closer.

Hypothetical: Minny vs Purdue at Purdue. I want Minny at 8-1. Take the bet?

 

[fluoxetine]

If I had to pick a side, yes I would give you Minny at 8-1 rather than take it myself. But I think that's probably a very fair line so I wouldn't be particuarily jazzed about taking either side.

 

[bac2therac]

no one is taking Washington at Michigan State or at Purdue

 

[fluoxetine]

no one is taking Washington at Michigan State or at Purdue

At 10-1 odds they might. I might.

 

[bac2therac]

At 10-1 odds they might. I might.

well you already lost...Michigan State 88 Washington 54

 

[fluoxetine]

well you already lost...Michigan State 88 Washington 54

Ok lol, well I would not generally take them in games they've already lost in the past.

I'm not sure what your point is though; I said I think they would have a >9% chance in a rematch, the fact they got blown out once doesn't really dispute that.

 

[zebnatto]

well you already lost...Michigan State 88 Washington 54

Well, talk about cherry picking! How many times have such games gone the other way? Besides if Washington beat MSU once in nine games, the Washington bettor comes out ahead. I’m an old guy and I remember some huge upsets that no one ever thought could happen: Jets Super Bowl III, Douglas over Tyson, Clay over Liston, NC State championship. Any 20-1 shot at Monmouth. There are so many that finding one where the big favorite won. The game is really meaningless.

 

[SirPerceval]

Hypothetical: Minny vs Purdue at Purdue. I want Minny at 8-1. Take the bet?

Absolutely