2/12: Just a taste of 2024 NCAA Bacatology
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Tech looked good but Kansas played sooo poorly last night. Dickinson totally anonymous
The guy who wrote all those Hardy Boy books is/was a world class loser with too much time on his/her hands.
Great stuff BAC.
I’m not sure what to make of the MWC. Unlike usual they have the out of conference wins to back up the numbers. The teams Nevada beat at the top of their standings have legit non-conference wins - it’s not double digit Q3 wins propping up the NETs this time. SOR and even the old RPI metrics love Nevada and honestly for good reason. A lot of games left, but to be blunt, outside of an epic collapse on their part, I have a hard time seeing a path to us having a better resume than a team like them (unless we win at Purdue). Loss count matters and wins at Wisconsin, SHU and Nebraska just wouldn’t stand out enough over what they’ve already got to make up for having 3+ extra losses.
So I’m sort of resigning to the MWC possibly getting the 6 (at least I don’t see RU entering the field that easily ahead of any of their teams for now unless one of them takes a landmine loss). I’m most interested in thinking about where we could realistically pick up ground. BE seems huge because they play a balanced conference schedule. Do I have this right? If SHU claws out a 3rd or 4th place finish ahead of those other bubblers that would be big for us - conference race there might even be more important optically than where SHU clogs in on the NET. Obviously - where we stand in our own conference race matters a lot too with the BIG containing it’s own laundry list of bubblers. While conference standings isn’t a metric in its own right - it still matters a lot in conferences packed with bubblers because it’s like for like comparative data amongst them.
I’m not sure what to make of the MWC. Unlike usual they have the out of conference wins to back up the numbers. The teams Nevada beat at the top of their standings have legit non-conference wins - it’s not double digit Q3 wins propping up the NETs this time. SOR and even the old RPI metrics love Nevada and honestly for good reason. A lot of games left, but to be blunt, outside of an epic collapse on their part, I have a hard time seeing a path to us having a better resume than a team like them (unless we win at Purdue). Loss count matters and wins at Wisconsin, SHU and Nebraska just wouldn’t stand out enough over what they’ve already got to make up for having 3+ extra losses.
So I’m sort of resigning to the MWC possibly getting the 6 (at least I don’t see RU entering the field that easily ahead of any of their teams for now unless one of them takes a landmine loss). I’m most interested in thinking about where we could realistically pick up ground. BE seems huge because they play a balanced conference schedule. Do I have this right? If SHU claws out a 3rd or 4th place finish ahead of those other bubblers that would be big for us - conference race there might even be more important optically than where SHU clogs in on the NET. Obviously - where we stand in our own conference race matters a lot too with the BIG containing it’s own laundry list of bubblers. While conference standings isn’t a metric in its own right - it still matters a lot in conferences packed with bubblers because it’s like for like comparative data amongst them.
A-10 seems like this years poor man version of the MWC. With 3 teams log jamming the NET 70-75 slots they are manufacturing a pile of fringe Q1 and Q2 games for their conference. St Bonnie’s in particular seems like the biggest fraud case of all. How on earth is a 9 loss team with 2 Q4 losses, no wins over tournament teams, AND also a negative net record vs Q1-Q3 in the top 74?
they wont get 6
New Mexico is most likely candidate....Boise has some great stuff on their resume but at 48 in the NET with 8 losses we shall see. There are alot of games they still have to play against each other.
UNLV can play spoiler
And yet somehow they have 3 frauds clogging up the top 75 and taking away a Q1 win from us at the moment.
yeah I think its similar, SJU has slightly better wins in the mid pack than RU does in the Big 10 (Nova/Xav vs MD, Indy) so thats big enough advantage to have them a bit better CURRENTLY but RU can change that with a win on Thursday.
Syracuse gets their first Q1 win, their only other wins of note are Pitt and Oregon
Pitt who already won at Duke got a huge road win at Virginia. They have wins over Wake and NC State. Yet non conference sos of 347
I excluded them on the initial bubble list because they did not belong...well now they do. I cannot say they have good shots but they belong to be on the list. Cuse will not have many opportunities for a move the needle win until travelling to Clemson to end the year. Pitt has trips to Wake and Clemson they will need to win.
Pitt who already won at Duke got a huge road win at Virginia. They have wins over Wake and NC State. Yet non conference sos of 347
I excluded them on the initial bubble list because they did not belong...well now they do. I cannot say they have good shots but they belong to be on the list. Cuse will not have many opportunities for a move the needle win until travelling to Clemson to end the year. Pitt has trips to Wake and Clemson they will need to win.
Yeah thats a bad loss. Lets see how far their NET tumbles after losing at home by 13 to #215, a Quad 4 loss. I think their margin of error is done. They likely get an at large if they do not win the MVC tourney but ONLY if they win out the rest of the season.
Cincy failed to pick up a Q1 win at home over Iowa State that would have vaulted them in the field
Butler begins a gauntlet of games with a home loss to Marquette
Texas A&M suffers a hideous one point loss to Vandy who at 235 was barely in Q3
Butler begins a gauntlet of games with a home loss to Marquette
Texas A&M suffers a hideous one point loss to Vandy who at 235 was barely in Q3
Really glad there are no 150+ NET teams in the B1G this year, although Michigan sure is tracking there lol. They always steal 1-2 games to totally torpedo resumes
I think ACC gets 4 so it will be between Pitt Wake and UVA to battle it out. I figure rutgers has to win 7 games total including tourney to have a shot
Love reading Bac's NCAA thoughts. He does such a great job.
There is still a long way to go and things can change quickly within a 3 or 4 game swing and he will keep us all updated....
Best of Luck,
Groz
There is still a long way to go and things can change quickly within a 3 or 4 game swing and he will keep us all updated....
Best of Luck,
Groz
I also wouldn’t sleep on Maryland. If they end the year strong, they could very well finish in the NET top 75. Ranked 81 at the moment
I hate to admit it but Pitt was probably in way better shape than us even before the UVA win. That Duke road win was always way better than anything on our resume. Wake and NC State wins pretty similar to Nebraska and SHU. Virginia is Pitt’s 7th true road wins (plus they have another neutral win). That’s a lot of wins away from home.
3 reasons why I did not include Pitt in the intital look....
348 non conference sos
12 of their 15 wins came from Q3/4, they were just 3-6 in Q1/2 entering last night
2 Q3 losses...the cuse at home not so bad but the home loss to Missouri is not far from a Q4 loss, I took the Duke win as an aberration.
Compare SHU's wins to Pitt. I know Pitt won those 2 games on the road but SHU still comes out way ahead. Virginia is a bubble team themselves so winning there wasnt like winning at North Carolina.
Can Pitt win at Wake, at Clemson and take care of the other ACC turds. Probably have to go 6-1
Unlikely they dug too big a hole. Here is why....unlike RU, they arent playing well at all. Their non conference sos is 307 and have no win of note there.. 3 Q3 losses stick out. For a team that is going to have 13-14 losses, that ooc sos is a non starter Already at all 11, they basically need to go 6-1 the rest of the way, a slimmer margin of error than RU.
yep need to root for SHU to close the year out strong. Its our best OOC win, they need to make the tourney and get people talking Rutgers beat the team that beat Connecticut
I think they’re more talking about them becoming a Q1 win for us
I was in shock when I saw the early score. Quite the turnaround there. Colorado State has a dicey 4 game stretch coming up. Utah State, at New Mexico, at UNLV, Nevada
New Mexico completed the season sweep over Nevada. Didnt win by 35 this time but one is enough and that keeps them ahead of Nevada in the pecking order. On paper Nevada would seem to have the better wins and profile but the metrics really prefer New Mexico at 21 in the NET over Nevada 49 Again I dont see 6 from MWC, Nevada is the odd man out for now. Unfortunately for them, they dont have any Q1 opportunities at home left. Three tough road games 2 in Q1 Boise St/CSU and Q2 UNLV. Can they win 2 of 3 and take care of everyone else at home...that could put them back in.
if you think about it, the Lobos had to have this game given 3 games on the road at San Diego State, Boise St, Utah State plus a home game with Colorado State left
Invariably the perfect bracket will come down to whether a bracketologist can nail this conference the most.
it might look like a Q1 win but not sure anyone is calling Maryland a quality win...similar to Ohio State hanging by a thread in Q1. The road win definitely helps for a road mark though
BYU dealt Central Florida its 10 loss of the season. There is still a path for the Golden Knights given their schedule has many opportunities for Q1 and Q2 home wins yet the 2 point road loss was a missed opportunity
Virginia Tech stays alive by knocking off Florida State. 5 game gauntlet coming up.....at UNC, Virginia, at Pitt, at Cuse, Wake
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