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2/12: Just a taste of 2024 NCAA Bacatology

@bac2therac this is very complex so I know there are a 100+ moving parts at all times but this seems like it may come down to Rutgers vs Nebraska or Michigan St (or another Big Ten team) on the bubble. The consensus is that the Big Ten won’t get the more than 6 teams. Maybe they get a 7th team but I could see the the 6-8 ranked big ten teams fight it out at the end of the day. Rutgers will still need to get to 11-12 Big Ten wins in my opinion but the game at Nebraska could be huge if they take care of business the other games.
 
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bac2therac said:
I was in shock when I saw the early score. Quite the turnaround there. Colorado State has a dicey 4 game stretch coming up. Utah State, at New Mexico, at UNLV, Nevada

New Mexico completed the season sweep over Nevada. Didnt win by 35 this time but one is enough and that keeps them ahead of Nevada in the pecking order. On paper Nevada would seem to have the better wins and profile but the metrics really prefer New Mexico at 21 in the NET over Nevada 49 Again I dont see 6 from MWC, Nevada is the odd man out for now. Unfortunately for them, they dont have any Q1 opportunities at home left. Three tough road games 2 in Q1 Boise St/CSU and Q2 UNLV. Can they win 2 of 3 and take care of everyone else at home...that could put them back in.

if you think about it, the Lobos had to have this game given 3 games on the road at San Diego State, Boise St, Utah State plus a home game with Colorado State left

Invariably the perfect bracket will come down to whether a bracketologist can nail this conference the most.
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Yeah - that’s an example of what worries me. Without beating Purdue, is there a realistic path to us having a better side by side resume than a team like them outside of an implosion on their part? SDSU and TCU (neutral) are very good wins. @ Utah State and Colorado State are two more wins over very likely field teams. Nevada’s profile is clean and unless that changes, what would be the reason we objectively could move ahead of them? Even if we go 7-1 the rest of the way we’d have at least 2 more losses than them on Selection Sunday. Basically the same story with Boise except they do have one extra loss. The neutral win over St Marys paired with a SDSU win stacks right up with what our resume would have.
 
needmorecowbell said:
@bac2therac this is very complex so I know there are a 100+ moving parts at all times but this seems like it may come down to Rutgers vs Nebraska or Michigan St (or another Big Ten team) on the bubble. The consensus is that the Big Ten won’t get the more than 6 teams. Maybe they get a 7th team but I could see the the 6-8 ranked big ten teams fight it out at the end of the day. Rutgers will still need to get to 11-12 Big Ten wins in my opinion but the game at Nebraska could be huge if they take care of business the other games.
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I dont think its a Big 10 issue really...i think if it was 8 teams yes like last year but its 6th, i could see all 7 getting in. I dont see any issue with Michigan State, Nebraska can fix their issues by winning on the road and a loss at home to RU wouldnt ding them. RU can control their own destiny by going 7-1
 
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PSAL_Hoops said:
Yeah - that’s an example of what worries me. Without beating Purdue, is there a realistic path to us having a better side by side resume than a team like them outside of an implosion on their part? SDSU and TCU (neutral) are very good wins. @ Utah State and Colorado State are two more wins over very likely field teams. Nevada’s profile is clean and unless that changes, what would be the reason we objectively could move ahead of them? Even if we go 7-1 the rest of the way we’d have at least 2 more losses than them on Selection Sunday. Basically the same story with Boise except they do have one extra loss. The neutral win over St Marys paired with a SDSU win stacks right up with what our resume would have.
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I wouldnt worry about a comparison to any particular MWC school. I dont see 6 teams from this conference...its 7th rated behind the Pac 12 which might only get 3. Someone will play their way out. Nevada and Boise State are not liked by the metrics right now. New Mexico still has just an okay resume but the metrics love them. I see RUs spot a competition with an additional sec or big east or pac 12 or acc or big 12 rather than the MWC.
 
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With Berry out for the season, how much would NW need to collapse before they are in danger?

They could be last year's Rutgers if things spiral in the wrong direction now
 
The metrics do not like Northwestern at 57 in the NET for two reasons...the horrific loss to 290 Chicago State and the wretched non conference schedule 325

That raises issues if they spiral in the last few games

Certainly beating Purdue is a feather in their cap..but RU did it last year, its not everything. Home wins vs Illinois, Michigan State and Nebraska. They did actually do something OOC with a win over Dayton which RU didnt have last year. Thats 5 wins vs NCAA schools.

4-3 in Q1, 3-1 in Q2 are solid enough. Probably on the 9 line right now. Strength of record 28 which is very good.

6 of their last 7 are vs teams not projected in the field. 4 are on the road. Michigan State and Rutgers on the road. The other games are all 2nd division schools but at Indiana at Maryland will be tough. Home games to Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota. If they can take care of the home games and win one of those on the road....4 more wins puts them at 21-10/12-8 and they are dancing. But if they dont win any road games they will have an issue even at 20-11/11-9 as they would drop to 7-8 in Q1/2 and thats where the non conference sos, road issues, not having Berry will crop up
 
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bac2therac said:
The metrics do not like Northwestern at 57 in the NET for two reasons...the horrific loss to 290 Chicago State and the wretched non conference schedule 325

That raises issues if they spiral in the last few games

Certainly beating Purdue is a feather in their cap..but RU did it last year, its not everything. Home wins vs Illinois, Michigan State and Nebraska. They did actually do something OOC with a win over Dayton which RU didnt have last year. Thats 5 wins vs NCAA schools.

4-3 in Q1, 3-1 in Q2 are solid enough. Probably on the 9 line right now. Strength of record 28 which is very good.

6 of their last 7 are vs teams not projected in the field. 4 are on the road. Michigan State and Rutgers on the road. The other games are all 2nd division schools but at Indiana at Maryland will be tough. Home games to Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota. If they can take care of the home games and win one of those on the road....4 more wins puts them at 21-10/12-8 and they are dancing. But if they dont win any road games they will have an issue even at 20-11/11-9 as they would drop to 7-8 in Q1/2 and thats where the non conference sos, road issues, not having Berry will crop up
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RU did it @ Mackey too, significantly weaker win to do it at home
 
If Rutgers won the Purdue game, would we be able to lose an additional game or no matter what is it 20 wins to feel fairly good and 19 to have a semblance of a chance?
 
Big win for SHU...and with Richmond falling to UMass, the Spiders lose to the Atlantic 10 AQ to Dayton which opens a spot in that at large field that might go to the Pirates tomorrow morning

Clemson tops Miami solidifying their resume while keeping the Canes in the far end of the bubble pool
 
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Clemson has fairly easy schedule. They are in and playing for seeding. Curious how high they could go. They have a nice team.
 
Miami has BC 2x and GT but FSU away and also UNC and Duke.

I suspect NCAA likes Larranaga and maybe rewards Miami?

NC State? Wake? UVA? Cuse? Va Tech?
 
I agree with you but trash wee bit harsh.
Beat KSU, UCF, Georgia, Clemson
Beat teams competing against, Va Tech 2x, Pitt.
Lost in OT to Wake and Kentucky.
I suspect loss to Louisville is their downfall.
 
So does Northwestern now lose credit for the Purdue win ? Being a PC fan after Hopkins went down word was we get no credit for beating Wisconsin and Marquette even though both games were not even close.
 
bac2therac said:
The metrics do not like Northwestern at 57 in the NET for two reasons...the horrific loss to 290 Chicago State and the wretched non conference schedule 325

That raises issues if they spiral in the last few games

Certainly beating Purdue is a feather in their cap..but RU did it last year, its not everything. Home wins vs Illinois, Michigan State and Nebraska. They did actually do something OOC with a win over Dayton which RU didnt have last year. Thats 5 wins vs NCAA schools.

4-3 in Q1, 3-1 in Q2 are solid enough. Probably on the 9 line right now. Strength of record 28 which is very good.

6 of their last 7 are vs teams not projected in the field. 4 are on the road. Michigan State and Rutgers on the road. The other games are all 2nd division schools but at Indiana at Maryland will be tough. Home games to Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota. If they can take care of the home games and win one of those on the road....4 more wins puts them at 21-10/12-8 and they are dancing. But if they dont win any road games they will have an issue even at 20-11/11-9 as they would drop to 7-8 in Q1/2 and thats where the non conference sos, road issues, not having Berry will crop up
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Somebody said earlier as a compliment that NW this year was us last year. Maybe not a good thing, lol
 
Edits made here.....with the Richmond loss, Dayton moves from at large to Atlantic 10 AQ while Richmond falls into the at large pool. This opens up a spot in the field and Seton Hall jumps in as my last team in

FIRST FOUR BYES: NEBRASKA ,MISSISSIPPI STATE, WASHINGTON STATE, NEW MEXICO

LAST 4 IN: SETON HALL, UTAH, PROVIDENCE, GONZAGA

FIRST 4 OUT: CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI, NEVADA, KANSAS STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, MEMPHIS
 
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Loyal_2RU said:
Somebody said earlier as a compliment that NW this year was us last year. Maybe not a good thing, lol
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Don’t see it at all. The only similarity really is that they beat Purdue. Their D is 78 in KenPom. Their resume isn’t otherwise similar either - we beat nobody OOC and they have the Dayton win.

When I think of comparatives, Nebraska’s resume reminds me of our resume from the Covid year.
 
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PSAL_Hoops said:
Don’t see it at all. The only similarity really is that they beat Purdue. Their D is 78 in KenPom. Their resume isn’t otherwise similar either - we beat nobody OOC and they have the Dayton win.

When I think of comparatives, Nebraska’s resume reminds me of our resume from the Covid year.
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We now have 3 Quad 1 wins with 2 on the road with Maryland jumping to 75 and Seton Hall jumping to 67. Upward and onboard ! Big one tonight . Get this one and now the talking starts
 
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Memphis loses again at North Texas. Colorado going down at UCLA.

On the flipside Washington gets a 20 point win over Stanford.
 
kcg88 said:
Memphis loses again at North Texas. Colorado going down at UCLA.

On the flipside Washington gets a 20 point win over Stanford.
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Memphis is deep crap now. Not a fan of Colorados resume despite their good numbers and thats one they needed to have.

Washington has a very sloppy resume. I would clearly put RU ahead of them

Washington State big win over Cal so they keep their spot in the field

Gonzaga takes care of Loyola on the road

SMU wins at Tulane

Minnesotas NCAA hopes are down to a flicker after the loss to Purdue

Northwestern now has to be careful going forward with Berry injured and their drop off in play on the road.

Utah losing to USC by 5 later in the 2nd half

Ill crunch numbers tomorrow to see where Rutgers stands up I think I would slot them in the last 10-12 out right now....so to me that makes the a bubble team even if a more distant one.
 
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bac2therac said:
Memphis is deep crap now. Not a fan of Colorados resume despite their good numbers and thats one they needed to have.

Washington has a very sloppy resume. I would clearly put RU ahead of them

Washington State big win over Cal so they keep their spot in the field

Gonzaga takes care of Loyola on the road

SMU wins at Tulane

Minnesotas NCAA hopes are down to a flicker after the loss to Purdue

Northwestern now has to be careful going forward with Berry injured and their drop off in play on the road.

Utah losing to USC by 5 later in the 2nd half

Ill crunch numbers tomorrow to see where Rutgers stands up I think I would slot them in the last 10-12 out right now....so to me that makes the a bubble team even if a more distant one.
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Said this in another thread but I do believe we're a bubble team BUT nobody is going to put us in brackets unless we go 4-1 through the Nebraska game.
 
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Update heading into the weekend....



FIRST FOUR BYES: BOISE STATE ,MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO

LAST 4 IN: NEVADA, SETON HALL, GONZAGA, PROVIDENCE

FIRST 4 OUT: UTAH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI, KANSAS STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, VIRGINIA TECH

ON DECK: PITTSBURGH, MEMPHIS, RUTGERS, SYRACUSE
 
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bac2therac said:
Update heading into the weekend....



FIRST FOUR BYES: BOISE STATE ,MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO

LAST 4 IN: NEVADA, SETON HALL, GONZAGA, PROVIDENCE

FIRST 4 OUT: UTAH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI, KANSAS STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, VIRGINIA TECH

ON DECK: PITTSBURGH, MEMPHIS, RUTGERS, SYRACUSE
Click to expand...
Is there more than 1.5 wins that separate this 20 team blanket? If Miss State was 14-10 they probably wouldn't even be on deck
 
bac2therac said:
Update heading into the weekend....



FIRST FOUR BYES: BOISE STATE ,MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO

LAST 4 IN: NEVADA, SETON HALL, GONZAGA, PROVIDENCE

FIRST 4 OUT: UTAH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI, KANSAS STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, VIRGINIA TECH

ON DECK: PITTSBURGH, MEMPHIS, RUTGERS, SYRACUSE
Click to expand...
Seton Hall at St John's on Sunday. Big game for each
 
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Mississippi State is 34 in the NET with wins over projected 2/3s Tennessee and Auburn. That is pretty potent. A neutral site win over Washington State and win over Northwestern...4 wins vs schools in the field. Pretty decent...their drawback was the hideous Quad 4 loss to 200 Southern AND a Q3 road loss to horrible Ga Tech. You can get away with one without too much dinging but not 2. Plus they are only 1-6 on the road despite 2 neutral site quality OOC wins.

But their case will be determined in the next 7. Arky, Ole Miss, at LSU and brutal end with KY, at Auburn, at Tex A&M, SC
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
not a big deal but Princeton played it's way out of at large so Ivy gets 1 bid.
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yeah well just 2 Ivy losses isnt bad but the NET slipped to 53 and they dont have anything to show for it in Q1 or 2 besides wins over RU and Duquense in the latter. The SOR is a very good 36. The St Joes loss was their only other loss and thats what killed them. I suppose if they run the table, enact revenge on Yale and Cornell and lose in the Ivy final they will be up on the board as a bubble team at 23-4
 
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bac2therac said:
Update heading into the weekend....



FIRST FOUR BYES: BOISE STATE ,MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO

LAST 4 IN: NEVADA, SETON HALL, GONZAGA, PROVIDENCE

FIRST 4 OUT: UTAH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI, KANSAS STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, WAKE FOREST, VILLANOVA, VIRGINIA TECH

ON DECK: PITTSBURGH, MEMPHIS, RUTGERS, SYRACUSE
Click to expand...
Syracuse ! Not saying you are wrong, but I thought they were supposed to suck forever since forcing boheim into retirement
 
San Diego State knocked off Ricky Jr's New Mexico. Love watching the late night Mountain West games.

Aztecs are a lock at this point. New Mexico will not get dinged for this and stays on the first 4 bye line
 
bac2therac said:
San Diego State knocked off Ricky Jr's New Mexico. Love watching the late night Mountain West games.

Aztecs are a lock at this point. New Mexico will not get dinged for this and stays on the first 4 bye line
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What did you think ? I have not seen any of the Mountain West games. There is talk of them getting six. I find that hard to think they would be that improved.
 
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