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Bacatology 2/24: NCAA Tournament Analysis

Bac, please tell me Wake would be out if they lose to UVA tonight. I am a Wake alum but want Forbes fired.
 
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Also, why is Wake 11th seed but we are not even near the bubble? We are only a few spots behind Wake on NET/KP.
 
RUDeac said:
Bac, please tell me Wake would be out if they lose to UVA tonight. I am a Wake alum but want Forbes fired.
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This would be their 2nd Q3 loss along with a very unimpressive resume. Personally I think this loss should eliminate them but I worry about the push to get a ACC 4th and SMU and UNC are options too
 
ru66 said:
Oh so in your analysis, bigten wins or losses matter but win/ loss records do not and the committee ' s mind is made up by 12 : 01 tonight thoiugh they really are not until final big records, wins or losses are completed ? Also all the conference tourneys mean nothing unless auto qualifying and losses matter at end of season but wins at end do not.. Most importantly you know how the committee thinks and what they considered this year ( by 12:01 tonight).Guessing may be fun but you're not since you're the overlord and all others are just guessing. Got it.
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This might have been intended as insulting, but it actually comes across as complimentary or as the kids today call it “glazing”.
 
recapping a very busy late night that had huge impacts...

Wake loses at home to Virginia. Its their 2nd Q3 loss and cratered their NET down 8 spots to 71. 2-6 in Q1 but only win vs team in field vs Michigan. 5-1 in Q2 and 6-2 in Q3....13-19 vs Q1/2/3 isnt all that bad but they just do not have the quality wins to justify selection with net that poor. I know there will be talk of the ACC cant only get 3 but it looks like UNC and SMU have moved ahead of Wake in that pecking order. There is a road game at Duke to come that could get them back into contention

Texas rallied from way back and got it to overtime but lost at Arkansas. When I finish my numbers crunching update today the Longhorns may be OUT of the field. Now down to 16-12....4-9 in Q1, 7-12 in Q2 but the 9-12 in Q1/2/3 is very concerning now. Non conference sos of 286 and SOR/WAB has sunk to 56/51. The 4 quality wins are two high level Q1 vs Missouri and Kentucky and additional Q1s over Texas A&M and at Oklahoma. Those certainly are good starters but they need more. Note they lost 2 to Arky and also lost to bubble Ohio State. Nothing of note non conference. Last 3 has two bubbles Georgia and Oklahoma at home sandwiched around a trip to Mississippi State. They will need to win 2 of these to feel good if preferably all of them.

Arkansas meanwhile bolster their middling numbers completing a sweep of Texas. Best wins Missouri, Kentucky, Michigan, Georgia, Texas 2x...dont forget a sneaky good Q3 win over ASUn AQ Lipscomb, Now 17-11, 4-9 in Q1, a shaky 6-11 in Q1/2 and 9-11 in Q1/2/33 is why they cannot feel totally safe. Can they get 2 of last 3...at SC is mandatory, at Vandy, Miss State. if they only get 1 its very dicey.

Vandy wins at Texas A&M and its a HUGE win for their resume....it moves them beyond the 4 SEC bubbles. Their resume was lacking that big road win and this was a doozy. Now 4-8 in Q1, 8-9 in Q2 but a very very very solid 11-9 in Q1/2/3. Key wins...3 of them high level Q1...at A&M, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss. There are those wins over Texas and TCU in Q2 that work for them. Yes the non conference sos is major red flag at 323 but SOR/WAB at 31/28 scream all systems go. Last 3 are Missouri, Arkansas, at Georgia. They probably want to win one of those and not find out what would happen with a 0-3 finish.
 
Utah's NCAA hopes were all but extinguished with a loss at Arizona. There are games left with WVU and at BYU so I suppose they can remain in the far out regions of the bubble

UCF knocked off Kansas State to keep their extremely dim hopes alive but at 4-13 in Q1/2 even winning their last 3 over OK State and 2 Q1 road games vs TCU/WVU and that TCU game is actually borderline Q2 wont move them up much

Bucknell replaces American as the AQ from the Patriot League
 
Indiana got a Q2 win over Penn State...not really a quality win but moreso avoiding a loss there that they could not afford. Hoosiers at NET 56 are the worst rated at large team in my bracket. Still only 4-11 in Q1 but that means no loss outside Q1. 8-11 in Q1/2 but a very good 13-11 in Q1/2/3. Its not an overwhelming profile and but the road win at Michigan State is a feather in their cap. With OSU back in the field, that road win gives them barely just 3 wins vs the field with Purdue the other. For me I would like to see them win at Oregon to emphatically state their case. They also have a game at Washington and home to OSU. Yet if they get those latter 2 that might be enough as they would be 10-12 in Q1/2 and 15-12 in Q1/2/3 and those numbers elevate them vs the drek around the bubble.

Ohio State is going to slip back into my field with a barely Q1 road win at USC. Moves them 3 games above 500 to 16-13. Now 6-9 in Q1. 9-13 in Q1/2 but just 10-13 in Q1/2/3 so that bulky loss total taking its toll. They have 3 high level Q1 wins..at Purdue, Maryland and neutral site of Kentucky. They have a win over bubble Texas to come in handy. Yet their other Q1 wins are to mediocrity like PSU/USC albeit on the road. So now down to just 3 wins vs teams in the field. Its very tough seperating them from Texas right now but give them the edge due to their head to head win and non conference schedule strength at 37. SOR/WAB at 53/49 is right at the cut line. Nebby and at Indiana left. Of course winning both makes it academic. A split likely leaves them right smack on the bubble. 2 losses and its over. They do seem to pass the eye test though.
 
SMU won at Cal. Again 0-5 still in Q1 despite the gaudy 21-7 mark. It was a Q2 win to put them 6-2 there but its not the type of win to move needles. 10-0 in Q3 is still an impressive number so how much weight does the committee give that. I have seen them give alot of weight to ACC schools with thin resumes in Q1/2 but impressive Q3 numbers. They are 16-7 in Q1/2/3 from a supposed power 5 conference so that is an impressive number on paper. At the end of the day, their best wins are drek Pitt, Virginia, LSU. The SOR/WAB at 40/50 does put them in the game but I dont like their non conference sos of 269. With 2 Q2 road games at FSU/Stanford and a Q3 home with Cuse if they can win all 3, I actually think they are going to move into the field despite zero wins vs the field.
 
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Dont look now but the Mountain West could wind up with 4 bids afterall. Up to 43 NET, The Broncos are making a late charge and got a big time double digit win at home over Utah State. Just counts as a Q2 but that puts them 7-6 in Q1/2 and gives them 4 wins vs teams in the field with their very strong ooc wins over St Marys and Clemson along with a win over projected MWC AQ New Mexico. 3-5 on Q1 and 11-8 in Q1/2/3. They did get swept by San Diego State and overall their resume is a notch or so above the Aztecs who look above the bubble fray. Their big regret will be the 2 Q3 losses, one could be excuses but 2 really hurts around the cut line. Washington St loss neutral site isnt all that bad but the Boston College loss is. Games against 2 Mountain West bottom feeders and then a tough Q2 home game with bubbly Colorado State. Will need to win them all and if they do that they are right there in that last group of schools under consideration.

San Francisco now 22-7 picked up a Q2 road win at Oregon State. Tough to realistically make a case at just 1-5 in Q1 and 4-7 in Q1/2. They have the win over St Marys and the non conference win over Boise State is looking better by the day but that is really it and 18 wins are coming from Q3/4. With Gonzaga up next and the Zags in the top 10 of the NET a win would boost their metrics across the board and keep them in the game but still appears a longshot. Will certainly be a legit potential bid stealer in the WCC tourney.
 
one more I forgot...Oklahoma dropped a heartbreaker at home to Kentucky that likely would have clinched a spot for them. The loss doesnt move them out of the field, it just means they will need 2 of 3 down the stretch vs at Ole Miss, Mizzou, at Tex....tough 3 game finish. 5-9 in Q1, 8-10 in Q2 and 10-11 in Q1/2/3... very good wins here non conference over Arizona, Michigan and Louisville. Its in SEC play where they are 4-11 where they do not have alot of quality wins..at Arky, Miss St, Vandy...that is 6 wins vs the field though which is hard to argue against. Lost to bubble Texas so they want to avoid that sweep there. The road mark of 1-6 is a major red flag so thats why they may need 1 or even 2 on the road.
 
Curious if you could explain why some still have Arizona as a 3. They have a ton of losses (9 now) and were really bad in the non-conference.
 
Clemson and St. John’s seeded too low. Johnies should be on 3rd line, Clemson5th.
 
Update 2/27

ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Alabama, Houston*

TWO SEEDS: Tennessee, Florida, Michigan State*, Texas A&M

THREE SEEDS: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Michigan, St John's*

FOUR SEEDS: Arizona, Purdue, Iowa State, Texas Tech

FIVE SEEDS: Missouri, Marquette, Maryland, Clemson

SIX SEEDS: Mississippi, Kansas, Oregon, UCLA

SEVEN SEEDS: Mississippi State, Saint Mary's*, Illinois, Louisville

EIGHT SEEDS: Memphis*, Creighton, Connecticut, BYU

NINE SEEDS: New Mexico*, Utah State, West Virginia, Vanderbilt

TEN SEEDS: Nebraska, Gonzaga, San Diego State, VCU*

ELEVEN SEEDS: Oklahoma, Baylor, Arkansas/Ohio State, Georgia/Indiana

TWELVE SEEDS: UC San Diego*, Drake*, Yale*, McNeese State*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, High Point*, Lipscomb*, Utah Valley State*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: Jacksonville State*, Chatanooga*, James Madison*, Towson*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Connecticut State*, Montana*, Norfolk State, Robert Morris*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Bryant*, Omaha*, Southern*/Bucknell*, SE Missouri*/Marist*

LAST 4 IN: OHIO STATE, INDIANA, GEORGIA, ARKANSAS
FIRST 4 OUT: TEXAS, BOISE STATE, SMU, NORTH CAROLINA
NEXT 4 OUT: CINCINNATI, XAVIER, NORTHWESTERN, VILLANOVA
 
MiamiWolv said:
Curious if you could explain why some still have Arizona as a 3. They have a ton of losses (9 now) and were really bad in the non-conference.
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I have them oscillating as a 3 or 4 along with Texas Tech and Iowa State...right now I have 3 of them as 4...one of them if not 2 of them will eventually be 3s but tight jockeying go on right now.

still alot of time to go for movement, these are not predictions, just a snaphot in time.

I dont know here you are getting they have bad losses..they one loss outside of Q1 and that was Q2 to Kansas State, yes in reality a bad loss but their only one.
 
bac2therac said:
I have them oscillating as a 3 or 4 along with Texas Tech and Iowa State...right now I have 3 of them as 4...one of them if not 2 of them will eventually be 3s but tight jockeying go on right now.

still alot of time to go for movement, these are not predictions, just a snaphot in time.

I dont know here you are getting they have bad losses..they one loss outside of Q1 and that was Q2 to Kansas State, yes in reality a bad loss but their only one.
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I cannot recall a 3 seed with 11-12 losses unless it did major damage in the non-conference portion of it’s schedule.
 
MiamiWolv said:
I cannot recall a 3 seed with 11-12 losses unless it did major damage in the non-conference portion of it’s schedule.
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They have 9 losses now so I don't understand

I have them as a 4. Those Big 12 schools will jockey to be on the 3 line

Michigan can easily fall to a 4 or 5

3 weeks of hoops left to play
 
bac2therac said:
They have 9 losses now so I don't understand

I have them as a 4. Those Big 12 schools will jockey to be on the 3 line

Michigan can easily fall to a 4 or 5

3 weeks of hoops left to play
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Agree on Michigan.

I could see Michigan as low as a 6.

Their metrics have been poor since January 8.

Very clean resume but if they lost say 4 of 5 to end which is very possible, they could end up with predictive metrics in the mid 30s which could put them in the 6 range.

There is a world where Michigan is the 6th seeded team out of the big ten in March.

Of course if Michigan gets 3 of 4 down the stretch, it’s likely a 3 seed. So they have a 4 seed range which probably is the case for most teams in the 12-25 range
 
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MiamiWolv said:
Agree on Michigan.

I could see Michigan as low as a 6.

Their metrics have been poor since January 8.

Very clean resume but if they lost say 4 of 5 to end which is very possible, they could end up with predictive metrics in the mid 30s which could put them in the 6 range.

There is a world where Michigan is the 6th seeded team out of the big ten in March.

Of course if Michigan gets 3 of 4 down the stretch, it’s likely a 3 seed. So they have a 4 seed range which probably is the case for most teams in the 12-25 range
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If they win out they win the Big 10..they control their own destiny
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
Was this a joke
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nope...if they won tonight at 15-14...the path was there..beat Purdue and Minny and 6-11 in Q1, 9-10 vs Q2...2 high level Q1 wins at Purdue, at Michigan, home to UCLA, Illinois, at Nebby...thats 5 wins vs teams in field and would match up close with 17-14/18-3 teams like Georgia, Baylor, Ohio State, Indiana, Texas

not a joke...not saying they would be in the field or the next 2 out but they would be legitly paired up against those teams where a case could be made
 
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bac2therac said:
nope...if they won tonight at 15-14...the path was there..beat Purdue and Minny and 6-11 in Q1, 9-10 vs Q2...2 high level Q1 wins at Purdue, at Michigan, home to UCLA, Illinois, at Nebby...thats 5 wins vs teams in field and would match up close with 17-14/18-3 teams like Georgia, Baylor, Ohio State, Indiana, Texas

not a joke...not saying they would be in the field or the next 2 out but they would be legitly paired up against those teams where a case could be made
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Fvck
 
Here is the update going into weekend play

SOUTH REGION – Atlanta
1) Auburn*
16) Bucknell* / Southern*
8) BYU
9) New Mexico*
5) Marquette
12) Liberty*
4) Texas Tech
13) Yale*
6) Mississippi
11) Baylor
3) Wisconsin
14) Chatanooga*
7) UCLA
10) San Diego State
2) Texas A&M
15) Montana*
WEST REGION San Francisco
1) Alabama
16) Omaha*
8) Memphis*
9) West Virginia
5) Maryland
12) UC San Diego*
4) Iowa State
13) Lipscomb*
6) Kansas
11) Georgia/Indiana
3) Saint John's*
14) James Madison*
7) Illinois
10) VCU*
2) Tennessee
15) Norfolk State*
EAST REGION – Newark
1) Duke*
16) Marist* / SE Missouri*
8) Connecticut
9) Utah State
5) Missouri
12) McNeese*
4) Purdue*
13) Akron*
6) Oregon
11) Oklahoma
3) Kentucky
14) Utah Valley State*
7) Mississippi State
10) Gonzaga
2) Michigan State*
15) Robert Morris*
MIDWEST REGION – Indianapolis
1) Houston*
16) Bryant*
8) Creighton
9) Vanderbilt
5) Clemson
12) Drake*
4) Arizona
13) High Point*
6) Saint Mary's*
11) Arkansas/Ohio State
3) Michigan
14) Towson*
7) Louisville
10) Nebraska
2) Florida
15) Central Connecticut*




tried to stay within bracketing principles. I do have a possible matchup with Ohio State/Michigan in the 2nd round which would be allowed because they have only met once this year. Also a possible meeting between Kentucky/Oklahoma 2nd round would be allowed because they also met just once. Tough to avoid given 2 SEC and 2 Big 10 schools in first four games as 11 seeds and 6 seeds from SEC/Big 10 Ole Miss and Oregon and 2 Big 10 3 seed Wisconsin and Michigan and 1 SEC 3 seed Kentucky


LAST 4 IN: OHIO STATE, INDIANA, GEORGIA, ARKANSAS

FIRST 4 OUT: TEXAS, BOISE STATE, SMU, NORTH CAROLINA

NEXT 4 OUT: CINCINNATI, XAVIER, NORTHWESTERN, VILLANOVA


BUBBLE TALK FOR WEEKEND

BIG 10

Northwestern needs to beat Iowa or their longshot hopes are over.
Nebraska must beat Minnesota to remain above the bubble fray
Indiana must win at Washington to remain in the field
Wisconsin would move a 2 seed with a win at Michigan State

ACC

North Carolina must beat Miami to remain in the last grouping of teams out.
SMU can possibly but not probably sneak in the field with a win at Stanford. A loss will continue to dim their prospects
Wake Forest must win vs Notre Dame to keep their longshot hopes alive
Pittsburgh could possibly get back to the outer fringes of contention with a win at Louisville

ATLANTIC 10

VCU can take a step closer to cementing a NCAA bid even without the A10 AQ with a win over Davidson
George Mason cannot lose at Duquense and remain in contention for an at large
Dayton must beat Richmond to keep their flickering at large hopes alive

BIG 12

UCF/TCU loser will be eliminated from any at large contention. The winner will reside on the outer fringes of the bubble.
Cincinnati can possibly vault into the field with a win at Houston. A loss will not necessarily end their hopes.
Baylor must win at Oklahoma State to remain in the field
West Virginia can lock up an at large with a win at BYU. A loss will not move their needle much.

BIG EAST

Xavier can move very close to the cut line if they beat Creighton. A loss will keep them last 8-10 out.
Villanova must win vs Butler to remain in contention for an at large

MISSOURI VALLEY

Drake can take another step forward to secure a possible at large without the MVC AQ with a win over Missouri State in their regular season finale.

MOUNTAIN WEST

New Mexico cannot afford a bad Q4 home loss to Air Force.
Boise State in must win mode at Fresno State to remain close to the cut line.
San Diego State cannot afford a loss at Wyoming if they want to remain about the bubble fray.
Utah State will likely lock up an at large bid with a win at Colorado State
Colorado State can move to the last 6/8 out grouping with a win over Utah State

SEC

Arkansas could possibly fall out of the field if they lose at South Carolina
Oklahoma would likely become a lock with a win at Ole Miss. A loss will not knock them out of the field but could drop them into the last 4 in.
Tennessee could supplant Alabama for the final one seed with a win over the Crimson Tide
Vanderbilt will be a stone cold lock with a win over Missouri. A loss will not substantial impace their resume negatively but could drop them to a 10 seed.
Texas could move back into the field with a win over Georgia. A loss and they remain in the last 4 out.
Georgia likely needs a road win at Texas to remain in the field.
Florida will need to beat Texas A&M to keep their hopes of grabbing that final one seed back.


WEST COAST

Gonzaga will wrap up an at large bid with a win at San Francisco. A loss moves them closer to the last 4 in but likely still above
San Francisco must beat Gonzaga to keep any at large chances alive.
 
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Northwestern knocks off Iowa and remains on the bubble. While they wouldn't be selected at the moment, should they beat UCLA at home and Maryland in the road, the Wildcats would finish 18-13...5-9 in Q1 and 13-13 in Q1/2/3 and potentially 6 wins vs the field. They would be right at the cut line. Tough but the path is there and they did beat Maryland earlier.
 
bac2therac said:
nope...if they won tonight at 15-14...the path was there..beat Purdue and Minny and 6-11 in Q1, 9-10 vs Q2...2 high level Q1 wins at Purdue, at Michigan, home to UCLA, Illinois, at Nebby...thats 5 wins vs teams in field and would match up close with 17-14/18-3 teams like Georgia, Baylor, Ohio State, Indiana, Texas

not a joke...not saying they would be in the field or the next 2 out but they would be legitly paired up against those teams where a case could be made
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This is what I was arguing the last month 😃

Unfortunately , could have, should have , would have …..
 
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