RU and Big 10 Tournament Tie-Breakers

[PiscatawayMike]

Have we clinched yet or is there still a very small possibility we don’t make it?

Still a small, very small chance we don't make it.

If Maryland beats Northwestern on Saturday, we're in.

 

[Luvscarletknights]

Complete and total failure improves our chances of change by Pike.

They beat who they needed to beat....

 

[lion1983]

Update - Conference records as of the morning of 3/6/25, plus remaining opponents ... renumbered, updated record and remaining opponents - did reorder just now:

7T. Illinois (11-8) ... Purdue
7T. Oregon (11-8) ... @Washington
9T. Indiana (9-10) ... Ohio St (Sat)
9T. Ohio St (9-10) ... @Indiana (Sat)
11T. RU (7-12) ... Minnesota (Sun - 1 PM))
11T. Nebraska (7-12) ... Iowa (Sun - 12:30 PM)
11T. Minnesota (7-12) ... @Rutgers (Sun - 1 PM)
14. Northwestern (7-12) ... @Maryland (Sat)
15. USC (7-12) ... @UCLA (Sat)
16. Iowa (6-12) ... Michigan St (Thurs), @Nebraska (Sun - 12:30 PM)
17. Penn St (5-14) ... @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-15) ... Oregon

Wisconsin beating Minnesota was good for RU. OSU beating Nebraska was good for RU. USC beating Washington was expected - but would have been better if Washington had upset USC.

Last Weekend Left: Games of relevance for RU:

Thursday 3/6:

Michigan St @ Iowa: Root HARD for Michigan St.

Friday 3/7:

Purdue @Illinois - not relevant

Saturday 3/8:

Penn St @Wisconisn - not relevant for RU

Northwestern @Maryland - root for Maryland to beat NW

OSU @Indiana - not relevant for RU, winner gets the 9 seed and the 1st round bye, loser has to play in the 1st round.

USC @UCLA - root for UCLA

Sunday 3/9:

Michigan @MSU - no relevance

Iowa @Nebraska - IF Iowa loses to MSU Thursday, a loss to Nebraska gives them 14 losses, and RU beats them out no matter what. BUT it MAY be given the tiebreakers that RU gets the higher seed if Iowa loses to MSU then beats Nebraska - if there is a 4-way tie between RU, Iowa, Nebraska and either NW or USC ... or a 5-way tie between RU, Iowa, Nebraska, NW AND USC. In both those (a 4-way and a 5-way tie), RU has the best mini-pool record, regardless of the result of RU v Minnesota because RU has beaten all of them except Iowa.

Minnesota @RU (Sun) - obviously root for RU.

I believe bactotherac states RU clinches a Big 10 tournament slot if MSU beats Iowa TONIGHT.

THIS IS TRUE, mathematically: IF Iowa loses to MSU, they will be 6-13. If RU loses to Minnesota, Iowa beats Nebraska,, USC beats UCLA, and NW beats Maryland, then RU is 7-13, tied with Iowa and Nebraska. Iowa would be 3-0 in the mini-pool, RU would be 1-1, Nebraska would be 0-3 - RU finishes as the 15th seed, ahead of Nebraska. If RU loses, to Minnesota, and Nebraska beats Iowa - Iowa ends up with 14 losses, and RU finishes as the 15th seed, behind an 8-12 Nebraska - and NW, USC and Minnesota also at 8-12 if all other games left go against RU's way.

RU could still finish as high as the 11th seed: beat Minnesota, and end up tied with ANY team other than JUST Iowa, I think.

RU misses out, I think, if they lose to Minnesota, Iowa beats Michigan St then loses to Nebraska, and USC and NW also win in upsets vs UCLA and Maryland (both on the road). In that case RU is in a 2-way tie with just Iowa, and Iowa wins the tiebreaker with its head to head win vs RU. I think this is the only scenario in which RU misses out.

 

[lakejj]

RU misses out, I think, if they lose to Minnesota, Iowa beats Michigan St then loses to Nebraska, and USC and NW also win in upsets vs UCLA and Maryland (both on the road). In that case RU is in a 2-way tie with just Iowa, and Iowa wins the tiebreaker with its head to head win vs RU. I think this is the only scenario in which RU misses out.

Thanks. At least I know how it will happen now.

 

[RuSnp]

Update - Conference records as of the morning of 3/6/25, plus remaining opponents ... renumbered, updated record and remaining opponents - did reorder just now:

7T. Illinois (11-8) ... Purdue
7T. Oregon (11-8) ... @Washington
9T. Indiana (9-10) ... Ohio St (Sat)
9T. Ohio St (9-10) ... @Indiana (Sat)
11T. RU (7-12) ... Minnesota (Sun - 1 PM))
11T. Nebraska (7-12) ... Iowa (Sun - 12:30 PM)
11T. Minnesota (7-12) ... @Rutgers (Sun - 1 PM)
14. Northwestern (7-12) ... @Maryland (Sat)
15. USC (7-12) ... @UCLA (Sat)
16. Iowa (6-12) ... Michigan St (Thurs), @Nebraska (Sun - 12:30 PM)
17. Penn St (5-14) ... @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-15) ... Oregon

Wisconsin beating Minnesota was good for RU. OSU beating Nebraska was good for RU. USC beating Washington was expected - but would have been better if Washington had upset USC.

Last Weekend Left: Games of relevance for RU:

Thursday 3/6:

Michigan St @ Iowa: Root HARD for Michigan St.

Friday 3/7:

Purdue @Illinois - not relevant

Saturday 3/8:

Penn St @Wisconisn - not relevant for RU

Northwestern @Maryland - root for Maryland to beat NW

OSU @Indiana - not relevant for RU, winner gets the 9 seed and the 1st round bye, loser has to play in the 1st round.

USC @UCLA - root for UCLA

Sunday 3/9:

Michigan @MSU - no relevance

Iowa @Nebraska - IF Iowa loses to MSU Thursday, a loss to Nebraska gives them 14 losses, and RU beats them out no matter what. BUT it MAY be given the tiebreakers that RU gets the higher seed if Iowa loses to MSU then beats Nebraska - if there is a 4-way tie between RU, Iowa, Nebraska and either NW or USC ... or a 5-way tie between RU, Iowa, Nebraska, NW AND USC. In both those (a 4-way and a 5-way tie), RU has the best mini-pool record, regardless of the result of RU v Minnesota because RU has beaten all of them except Iowa.

Minnesota @RU (Sun) - obviously root for RU.

I believe bactotherac states RU clinches a Big 10 tournament slot if MSU beats Iowa TONIGHT.

THIS IS TRUE, mathematically: IF Iowa loses to MSU, they will be 6-13. If RU loses to Minnesota, Iowa beats Nebraska,, USC beats UCLA, and NW beats Maryland, then RU is 7-13, tied with Iowa and Nebraska. Iowa would be 3-0 in the mini-pool, RU would be 1-1, Nebraska would be 0-3 - RU finishes as the 15th seed, ahead of Nebraska. If RU loses, to Minnesota, and Nebraska beats Iowa - Iowa ends up with 14 losses, and RU finishes as the 15th seed, behind an 8-12 Nebraska - and NW, USC and Minnesota also at 8-12 if all other games left go against RU's way.

RU could still finish as high as the 11th seed: beat Minnesota, and end up tied with ANY team other than JUST Iowa, I think.

RU misses out, I think, if they lose to Minnesota, Iowa beats Michigan St then loses to Nebraska, and USC and NW also win in upsets vs UCLA and Maryland (both on the road). In that case RU is in a 2-way tie with just Iowa, and Iowa wins the tiebreaker with its head to head win vs RU. I think this is the only scenario in which RU misses out.

Thanks. Back of envelope that's way less than a 5% chance. More like 0.25%.