Good chance Iowa loses out which automatically puts us in regardless if we lose out
RU and Big 10 Tournament Tie-Breakers
- Thread starter lion1983
- Start date
Playing with the mred tiebreaker page, I cannot find a scenario where winning at Purdue does not guarantee us a spot in the conference tournament.
Same with me. Iowa has to win both or they're out if we win 1. One of those games is against Nebraska. If Nebraska loses out they're a game behind us if we beat Purdue meaning we would be in. So worst case for us would be giving Nebraska an OSU win and an Iowa loss, with Iowa beating MSU. But you'd still need USC to sweep Wash and UCLA to tie us at 8 wins, otherwise USC would be at 7 wins and out. But I don't see any scenario at 8 wins based on our tiebreakers where we would be out. Nebraska as an example assuming the above is most at risk - a woeful 0 and 5 potentially against us, Minnesota, Iowa, and USC.
Now the problem is we would be out if we lose out and there's a logjam at 8 conference wins. And given how not lucky this season has gone I won't be comfortable until we win 1 more.
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Exactly he left that one out...its the mist likely scenario
Thank you for doing ALL of this work. That's a ton of great information.
On a side bitch. I can't stand that every ranking grid the stations show and BTN's own scroll they always have Rutgers last in that group that is tied even though we own the tie-breakers. I guess it is too much work for them and they don't have a guy like you there doing the work to get it accurate at the time.
and I'll be the guy to say it. If we can't beat Minny AT HOME in the last game to get in we do not deserve to be in it. Period.
In a way, the biggest non-RU games this week are: Nebraska at Ohio State, and Michigan State at Iowa. If the Buckeyes and Spartans both win, we are guaranteed to get in.
Great find - thanks ... adds a lot to this thread!
I think you're right. Since they play each other in their final game this scenario would guarantee either Iowa being a game back of us and eliminated or Nebby tied with us with us having the tiebreaker. There's a situation where it could be three way with USC us and Nebby but we'd qualify then too.
USC losing out guarantees us in as well.
Northwestern losing tonight would all but lock as they finish @maryland which is very likely a loss
yeah i know they beat Maryland earlier in the year but this Maryland team is way better at home and just way better in general. Cannot see Northwestern pulling off the win.
I'd be sick as a Northwestern fan that Martinelli didn't get the whistle on that looked like a hack with 15 seconds to go.
Whew.
Whew.
UCLA has looked horrible in late-game situations... blew a 17-point lead at home to Minnesota recently.
I know you are rooting for that to happen but it s not going to….. sorry.
Do you mean "very likely possibility" that we won't make the B10 tourney? It's mathematically possible that we would miss but it's very, very unlikely.
So true. I cannot believe UCLA let that game get so close. You know if we were the opponent in that game that we would have blown that lead. Foul definitely would have been called against us and game goes into overtime and we lose.
Update - Conference records after 3/3/25, morning of 3/4/25, plus remaining opponents ... renumbered, updated record and remaining opponents - did reorder this morning:
7. Illinois (10-8) ... @Mich, Purdue
8. Oregon (10-8) ... Indiana, @Washington
9. Indiana (9-9) ... @Oregon, Ohio St
10. Ohio St (8-10) ... Nebraska, @Indiana
11T. RU (7-11) ... @ Purdue, Minnesota
11T. Nebraska (7-11) ... @Ohio St, Iowa
11T. Minnesota (7-11) ... Wisconsin, @Rutgers
14. Northwestern (7-12) ... @Maryland
15. USC (6-12) ... Washington, @UCLA
16. Iowa (6-12) ... Michigan St, @Nebraska
17. Penn St (5-14) ... @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-14) ... @USC, Oregon
UCLA coming back to beat NW in the last minute was very good for RU.
Games of relevance for RU:
Tuesday, 3/4:
RU @Purdue: Obviously root hard for RU
Nebraska @OSU: Root for OSU to give Nebraska 12 conference losses
Indiana @Oregon: No longer relevant (if RU had beaten Michigan, it might have been relevant for seeding purposes, but not relevant any more.
Wednesday, 3/5:
Wisconsin @Minnesota: Root for Wisconsin, get Minnesota to 12 losses ... Even if RU beats Purdue, RU might STILL have to beat Minnesota to make the Big 10 tourney ... It depends on how other games shake out.
Washington @USC: Root for Washington, though they are not very good, even at home. Still, getting USC to 13 losses would be good for RU.
Maryland @Michigan is not relevant for RU.
Thursday 3/6:
Michigan St @ Iowa: Root for Michigan St.
FYI: RU can clinch a slot in the Big 10 tourney if RU wins today, and either if USC loses on Wednesday. or Iowa loses on Thursday. Otherwise, RU will have to wait until the weekend, maybe even Sunday - RU (vs Minnesota), and Nebraska and Iowa (vs each other), play Sunday. Northwestern and USC play Saturday.
Another FYI, not really relevant, but maybe of interest: If RU wins out and Ohio St loses out, RU finishes with the 10th seed.
7. Illinois (10-8) ... @Mich, Purdue
8. Oregon (10-8) ... Indiana, @Washington
9. Indiana (9-9) ... @Oregon, Ohio St
10. Ohio St (8-10) ... Nebraska, @Indiana
11T. RU (7-11) ... @ Purdue, Minnesota
11T. Nebraska (7-11) ... @Ohio St, Iowa
11T. Minnesota (7-11) ... Wisconsin, @Rutgers
14. Northwestern (7-12) ... @Maryland
15. USC (6-12) ... Washington, @UCLA
16. Iowa (6-12) ... Michigan St, @Nebraska
17. Penn St (5-14) ... @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-14) ... @USC, Oregon
UCLA coming back to beat NW in the last minute was very good for RU.
Games of relevance for RU:
Tuesday, 3/4:
RU @Purdue: Obviously root hard for RU
Nebraska @OSU: Root for OSU to give Nebraska 12 conference losses
Indiana @Oregon: No longer relevant (if RU had beaten Michigan, it might have been relevant for seeding purposes, but not relevant any more.
Wednesday, 3/5:
Wisconsin @Minnesota: Root for Wisconsin, get Minnesota to 12 losses ... Even if RU beats Purdue, RU might STILL have to beat Minnesota to make the Big 10 tourney ... It depends on how other games shake out.
Washington @USC: Root for Washington, though they are not very good, even at home. Still, getting USC to 13 losses would be good for RU.
Maryland @Michigan is not relevant for RU.
Thursday 3/6:
Michigan St @ Iowa: Root for Michigan St.
FYI: RU can clinch a slot in the Big 10 tourney if RU wins today, and either if USC loses on Wednesday. or Iowa loses on Thursday. Otherwise, RU will have to wait until the weekend, maybe even Sunday - RU (vs Minnesota), and Nebraska and Iowa (vs each other), play Sunday. Northwestern and USC play Saturday.
Another FYI, not really relevant, but maybe of interest: If RU wins out and Ohio St loses out, RU finishes with the 10th seed.
If we win tonight, we clinch. There is no tiebreaker scenario we'd lose out on.
We'd be 8-12 at worst.
Iowa needs to beat Nebraska and Michigan State to match that.
In that case, Nebraska needs to beat Ohio State to catch us - but they lose to Iowa, so they are also 8-12.
Northwestern needs to upset Maryland to get to 8-12.
USC needs to beat Washington and UCLA to get to 8-12.
If any of the above don't happen, that team is no better than 7-13 and our ticket is punched.
Minnesota would beat us in this scenario to get their 8th win. If the above collection of results happens and Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, there is a six team pile-up at 8-12. Nebraska is the loser because they would be 1-5 against the tied teams. We would be the 12 seed, Minnesota would be the 11 seed. The 13 seed is Iowa.
If Minnesota wins twice, we are still the 12 seed, Minnesota is still 11, and Nebraska is still out. Iowa is still the 13 seed.
We'd be 8-12 at worst.
Iowa needs to beat Nebraska and Michigan State to match that.
In that case, Nebraska needs to beat Ohio State to catch us - but they lose to Iowa, so they are also 8-12.
Northwestern needs to upset Maryland to get to 8-12.
USC needs to beat Washington and UCLA to get to 8-12.
If any of the above don't happen, that team is no better than 7-13 and our ticket is punched.
Minnesota would beat us in this scenario to get their 8th win. If the above collection of results happens and Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, there is a six team pile-up at 8-12. Nebraska is the loser because they would be 1-5 against the tied teams. We would be the 12 seed, Minnesota would be the 11 seed. The 13 seed is Iowa.
If Minnesota wins twice, we are still the 12 seed, Minnesota is still 11, and Nebraska is still out. Iowa is still the 13 seed.
Around 27% chance of us losing both based on espn metrics fwiw. So I'd push back on "very likely" for that too. Could it happen? Of course. But not "very likely."
So cal Dave metrics very likely will happen
The metrics with 3.1 seconds left against Michigan were 94% chance of winning
🤣
I think the program would ultimately be better served if we missed the big 10 tournament this year.
Nebraska loses. Need MSU to beat Iowa and we are in BTT.
I would rather have the Minnesota game mean something but it is what it is.
I would rather have the Minnesota game mean something but it is what it is.
Man I'm not watching it, but this Ohio State - Nebraska play by play is insane!
Win on Sunday and we will be the 11 seed. #6 seed likely to be UCLA IMO if we get to the second round.
Win on Sunday and we will be the 11 seed. #6 seed likely to be UCLA IMO if we get to the second round.
Complete and total failure improves our chances of change by Pike.
Not true.Although this season has been very disappointing with Bailey and Harper on the roster,getting to play in the B1GTenTournament would be far better than being left out.
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