Update - Conference records after 3/1/25, plus remaining opponents ... renumbered, updated record and remaining opponents - did reorder this morning:
7. Illinois (10-8) ... @Mich, Purdue
8. Oregon (10-8) ... Indiana, @Washington
9. Indiana (9-9) ... @Oregon, Ohio St
10. Ohio St (8-10) ... Nebraska, @Indiana
11T. RU (7-11) ... @ Purdue, Minnesota
11T. Nebraska (7-11) ... @Ohio St, Iowa
11T. Northwestern (7-11) ... UCLA, @Maryland
11T. Minnesota (7-11) ... Wisconsin, @Rutgers
15. USC (6-12) ... Washington, @UCLA
16. Iowa (6-12) ... Michigan St, @Nebraska
17. Penn St (5-14) ... @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-14) ... @USC, Oregon
PSU and Washington are 100% out of the running, , even if Iowa and USC each lose out to 14 losses, and PSU and Washington remain with 14 losses. Even in a 4-way ties at 14 losses, here is how it shakes out: Washington, to tie with USC and Iowa would have to beat USC and Oregon - they would then have a 1-1 record vs USC, an 0-1 record vs Iowa and 1-0 vs PSU. PSU would have an 0-1 vs Washington, 0-1 vs Iowa and 0-1 vs USC. Iowa would be 1-0 vs PSU, 1-0 vs Washington, 0-1 vs USC. USC would be 1-1 vs Washington, and 1-0 vs PSU and 1-0 vs Iowa. In a 4-way tie at 14 losses, USC would get the 15th seed, the others out, with a 3-1 mini-pool record vs Iowa's 2-1, Washington's 2-2 and PSU's 0-3.
Every day this will be very fluid.
With the loss to Michigan, the only thing that matters for RU is to get into the Big 10 tournament, and hope to win 5 in a row (the 9th seed is out of reach, so no single bye is possible. RU COULD finish 10th, if RU beats Purdue and Minnesota and OSU loses out (to Nebraska and Indiana) - but it is not all that relevant whether RU finishes 10th, 11th or 15th - as long as they make the Big 10 tournament.
So ... in the above context, who to root for the next couple of days:
Sunday 3/2: No games matter for RU purposes.
Monday, 3/3:
UCLA vs Northwestern: Root for UCLA to beat NW to give NW 12 conference losses.
Tuesday, 3/4:
RU @Purdue: Obviously root hard for RU
Nebraska @OSU: Root for OSU to give Nebraska 12 conference losses
Indiana @Oregon: No longer relevant (if RU had beaten Michigan, it might have been relevant for seeding purposes, but not relevant any more.
Wednesday, 3/5:
Wisconsin @Minnesota: Root for Wisconsin, get Minnesota to 12 losses ... Even if RU beats Purdue, RU might STILL have to beat Minnesota to make the Big 10 tourney ... It depends on how other games shake out.
Washington @USC: Root for Washington, though they are not very good, even at home. Still, getting USC to 13 losses would be good for RU.
Maryland @Michigan is not relevant for RU.
A reminder - others have posted on this:
1) RU wins the tiebreaker in 2-way ties with NW, Nebraska and USC. And Minnesota if RU beats Minnesota.
2) RU would win in a 3-way tie in the following combos, due to having a better mini-pool record: a) RU, NW, Nebraska; b) RU, USC, Nebraska; c) if they BEAT Minnesota, then RU, Minnesota, USC; d) If RU BEATS Minnesota, then RU, Minnesota, NW, e) if RU BEATS Minnesota, then RU, Minnesota, NW.
3) It starts getting really complicated in other 3-way ties - Minnesota, if they beat RU, will be 1-0 vs ALL the potential teams with whom they would tie: RU, Iowa, Nebraska, NW, and USC. Iowa would be 1-0 vs RU, NW and Nebraska, 0-1 vs Minnesota and USC. NW is 0-1 vs RU, Minnesota and Iowa, 1-0 vs Nebraska and USC. Nebraska is 0-1 vs 4 potential teams with whom they could be tied, but 1-0 vs USC. USC is 1-0 vs Nebraska and Iowa, 0-1 vs RU, NW and Minnesota. Someone else can work out these permutations today, LOL!
The odds still are that RU makes the Big 10 tourney even losing out - and a bit stronger if RU goes 1-1 ... I THINK guaranteed if RU beats Minnesota.
