Bacatology 2/17: 1st 2025 NCAA Tournament Analysis

[bac2therac]

the committee likely has their field set by Thursday....they have the contigency at the ready for bid stealers

not be Jerry Palm but the odds are against simply because history is against

Im not interested in discussing Rutgers as a bubble school unless they get to 17-14

 

[goru7]

the committee likely has their field set by Thursday....they have the contigency at the ready for bid stealers

not be Jerry Palm but the odds are against simply because history is against

Im not interested in discussing Rutgers as a bubble school unless they get to 17-14

Rutgers is not a bubble school now. Looked at the locks and then the bubble and I have 60 locks and only 8 slots for 25 teams and Rutgers is not one of the 25. Some bracketologists have 4 of my 8 also in , so only maybe 4 spots for 21 teams.

Rutgers is playing better and almost fully healthy now. Dylan is the key in every game from here on out.

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers is not a bubble school now. Looked at the locks and then the bubble and I have 60 locks and only 8 slots for 25 teams and Rutgers is not one of the 25. Some bracketologists have 4 of my 8 also in , so only maybe 4 spots for 21 teams.

Rutgers is playing better and almost fully healthy now. Dylan is the key in every game from here on out.

17-14 gets them on the board and under consideration but nothing less than that so need to go 3-0

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I think the "old" ways of thinking about what used to be the cutoffs, no longer exist

We have 4 distinctly different conferences this year and because of that, 13 losses in the regular season is now 15 regular season losses.

It is literally impossible to eliminate any team from the NCAA tournament with 15 losses with these 4 giant conferences.

The days of Arizona, UCLA, Oregon cruising to NCAA bids is over.....the Pac 12 used to offer built in wins vs some opponents that were solid but just a cut below these 3 schools most seasons.

The days of Kansas and Baylor cruising to Too 2 to 4 seeds is over.....adding Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Arizona to this league, has made Kansas and Baylor look normal when an injury takes a piece out of their lineups.

The days of Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois and Purdue, being able to coast home in comfort with a high seed or double bye in B1G tournament ended the day Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington entered the league. Adding in the variables of the bottom 3 dynamic for schools not qualifying for the B1G tournament, makes NW play much harder at Ohio State this year, vs prior years.

Ohio State is no worse or better than Oklahoma in the SEC or another bubble team in Wake Forest or any Big 12 team.

15 losses is now the NEW cutoff, when 13 used to be that regular season cutoff.

I don't know what the committee will do in this new age.....but I don't think ANY credible NCAA selection committee, can ignore conference tournament games any longer. The teams are too balanced in the middle of these 4 leagues and teams like Baylor and RU have had huge players miss chunks of the conference slate. Both would be locks if healthy during conference seasons.

I can only say that if any team wins 5 out of their last 7 games, in the regular season or combined with a conference tournament, it has to be considered. The margins between resume is so blurred and similar that it's going to lead to the bigger conferences eventually forming their own tournament, if too many quality schools and rosters, get left out. I will maintain that while Ohio State, RU and some others may not dance, they're miles better than certain Mountain West or West Coast conference schools. Gonzaga as a #10 in the NET, is comedy, they'd struggle to win 8 games in the B1G and feel fairly certain they'd have around 5 in the SEC.

For RU, Baylor, Ohio State and a handful of others, just keep playing the games and see what happens. All I can see for RU is a drastically different team, lineup and upside....on the other hand, how do you account for Illinois losing a Top 75 100 2024 big man last Saturday night to a broken wrist and then ask them to go play at Wisconsin snd Duke at MSG?? Even at full strength, those are likely losses.

 

[bac2therac]

I think the "old" ways of thinking about what used to be the cutoffs, no longer exist

We have 4 distinctly different conferences this year and because of that, 13 losses in the regular season is now 15 regular season losses.

It is literally impossible to eliminate any team from the NCAA tournament with 15 losses with these 4 giant conferences.

The days of Arizona, UCLA, Oregon cruising to NCAA bids is over.....the Pac 12 used to offer built in wins vs some opponents that were solid but just a cut below these 3 schools most seasons.

The days of Kansas and Baylor cruising to Too 2 to 4 seeds is over.....adding Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Arizona to this league, has made Kansas and Baylor look normal when an injury takes a piece out of their lineups.

The days of Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois and Purdue, being able to coast home in comfort with a high seed or double bye in B1G tournament ended the day Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington entered the league. Adding in the variables of the bottom 3 dynamic for schools not qualifying for the B1G tournament, makes NW play much harder at Ohio State this year, vs prior years.

Ohio State is no worse or better than Oklahoma in the SEC or another bubble team in Wake Forest or any Big 12 team.

15 losses is now the NEW cutoff, when 13 used to be that regular season cutoff.

I don't know what the committee will do in this new age.....but I don't think ANY credible NCAA selection committee, can ignore conference tournament games any longer. The teams are too balanced in the middle of these 4 leagues and teams like Baylor and RU have had huge players miss chunks of the conference slate. Both would be locks if healthy during conference seasons.

I can only say that if any team wins 5 out of their last 7 games, in the regular season or combined with a conference tournament, it has to be considered. The margins between resume is so blurred and similar that it's going to lead to the bigger conferences eventually forming their own tournament, if too many quality schools and rosters, get left out. I will maintain that while Ohio State, RU and some others may not dance, they're miles better than certain Mountain West or West Coast conference schools. Gonzaga as a #10 in the NET, is comedy, they'd struggle to win 8 games in the B1G and feel fairly certain they'd have around 5 in the SEC.

For RU, Baylor, Ohio State and a handful of others, just keep playing the games and see what happens. All I can see for RU is a drastically different team, lineup and upside....on the other hand, how do you account for Illinois losing a Top 75 100 2024 big man last Saturday night to a broken wrist and then ask them to go play at Wisconsin snd Duke at MSG?? Even at full strength, those are likely losses.

while you make some good points about consolidation perhaps changing the selection nitty gritty, the reality is schools from that sec that are 4-10 and 5-9 in league play are still projected in as of today by most brackets. At some point too many losses is too many losses. Ohio State is now 15-13...some really good stuff on that resume and no bad losses but you still need to be at least 3 game above 500..

we only have recent history to go on to look for in the committee decision process. In the past there are schools just 3 games above 500 (Im not including the 2021 covid shortened season where there were some weaker marks above 500 let in) that have got in but its few and far between. I believe Georgia was 16-14 but that was over 20 years ago. Its less and less likely. 15 is even more a rarity and and example of that was Ok State at 18-15 being left out a couple years back. As for how you finish, the committee no longer consider last 10 or 12 as criteria and hasnt for 10-15 years now.

conference tourney...recent history says no consideration see 23-12 Texas A&M in 2022 but also noticable last year with Providence. Until I start to see evidence from the committee that they are changing their ways I just have recent history over the past decade as trends to go on.

you also have to consider record in Q3 which to me are teams that at least have pulses...RU is just 7-14 in that catagory where a school like smu or wake who do not have too many impressive wins are like 15-7 and 13-8....that is a big difference

 

[RUJMM78]

There are too many mediocre teams getting NCAA bids.At a minimum teams should have no worse than a 50/50 record against league competition to be considered.Parity is being used to explain mediocre league records.Instead of increasing the number of bids the number should be reduced by eliminating all the automatic bids to smaller conferences and let them play in the N1T.The NCAA Tournament should be for the best teams not the also rans.

 

[RUChoppin]

There are too many mediocre teams getting NCAA bids.At a minimum teams should have no worse than a 50/50 record against league competition to be considered.Parity is being used to explain mediocre league records.Instead of increasing the number of bids the number should be reduced by eliminating all the automatic bids to smaller conferences and let them play in the N1T.The NCAA Tournament should be for the best teams not the also rans.

Not just parity, but consolidation. The better teams are now playing each other more often, as fewer conferences are showing up in the top 10-15% of teams. That will mean better in-season matchups for fans, but a higher chance of picking up losses.

Looking at the top 40 NET schools, and 88% of them are in just 5 conferences (68% of them are in just 3 conferences).

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

while you make some good points about consolidation perhaps changing the selection nitty gritty, the reality is schools from that sec that are 4-10 and 5-9 in league play are still projected in as of today by most brackets. At some point too many losses is too many losses. Ohio State is now 15-13...some really good stuff on that resume and no bad losses but you still need to be at least 3 game above 500..

we only have recent history to go on to look for in the committee decision process. In the past there are schools just 3 games above 500 (Im not including the 2021 covid shortened season where there were some weaker marks above 500 let in) that have got in but its few and far between. I believe Georgia was 16-14 but that was over 20 years ago. Its less and less likely. 15 is even more a rarity and and example of that was Ok State at 18-15 being left out a couple years back. As for how you finish, the committee no longer consider last 10 or 12 as criteria and hasnt for 10-15 years now.

conference tourney...recent history says no consideration see 23-12 Texas A&M in 2022 but also noticable last year with Providence. Until I start to see evidence from the committee that they are changing their ways I just have recent history over the past decade as trends to go on.

you also have to consider record in Q3 which to me are teams that at least have pulses...RU is just 7-14 in that catagory where a school like smu or wake who do not have too many impressive wins are like 15-7 and 13-8....that is a big difference

I agree with most of what you said. The one caveat though that Rutgers would have going for it to set them apart from past teams in that situation would be a really strong overall SOS going into their conference tournament. We’re at 22 now so with the pair of ranked road games I imagine that will finish even better.

In contrast, it’s impossible to go back and see what A&M and Providence’s SOS were before their conference tournaments since they include that data - but they ended their post seasons at 63 and 43 respectively so presumably they were worse before adding all those neutral games?

 

[DHajekRC84]

Last night they noted Rutgers having the 22nd most difficult overall schedule and 3rd most difficult in the B1G. When considering League records that ought to matter. Same with road wins which we've been historically poor at but have 3 (?) this year.. but yes, our neutral and home isn't the greatest either so there's that.

 

[bac2therac]

Our current NET Sos is 32. OOC sos is middling at 163 and our best win a bad Notree Dame

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Our current NET Sos is 32. OOC sos is middling at 163 and our best win a bad Notree Dame

KenPom SOS is 22. I wonder why such a big difference?

 

[bac2therac]

KenPom SOS is 22. I wonder why such a big difference?

Net is what's used so I never really look at Kenpom for anything