Bacatology 2/24: NCAA Tournament Analysis

[Bayonnebomber79]

Bac, I have a general seeding and placement question for you.
I understand why #1 and #2 seeds get placed in the reigons, but it is mostly a mystery to me how placement in the first round sites are determined. More specifficaly, I have tickets for Cleveland and am on the fence if I should go. Im assuming at least 1 or 2 Big10 teams will be there. Do you have any insights or best guesses on who might be placed there? Thanks and keep up the good work. I really appreciate and respect your opinions and hard work. This board is fortunate to have you.

 

[RAC93]

In the discussion is In was the debate. I still think a hard sell with 14 losses and a 15th coming..2 Q3 losses that others don't have.

You are saying that even if they won out, got to 17-14, that they were on the bubble but still OUT, correct? Only hope of getting in would have been if committee paid attention to them rattling off a minimum of 3 BTT wins, I assume. They would be 20-15, but committee could have basically determined the field and that they were already out based upon the 17-14 resume. I am surmising that even if we won the Michigan game, we were pushing a rock up a hill regardless as we were not being selected. Only shot for us was finish regular season with 5 straight wins, then rattle off 3 more in BTT (now up to 8 straight wins, my word) and then committee takes account of our BTT exploits and then selects us as an at large. That was a near impossible task, a real Sisyphus pushing the rock up the hill kind of task.

 

[bac2therac]

You are saying that even if they won out, got to 17-14, that they were on the bubble but still OUT, correct? Only hope of getting in would have been if committee paid attention to them rattling off a minimum of 3 BTT wins, I assume. They would be 20-15, but committee could have basically determined the field and that they were already out based upon the 17-14 resume. I am surmising that even if we won the Michigan game, we were pushing a rock up a hill regardless as we were not being selected. Only shot for us was finish regular season with 5 straight wins, then rattle off 3 more in BTT (now up to 8 straight wins, my word) and then committee takes account of our BTT exploits and then selects us as an at large. That was a near impossible task, a real Sisyphus pushing the rock up the hill kind of task.

At 17-14 out IMO.. I just don't think they would be waiting holding a spot for a school making a late run

Also factor in bid stealers

 

[bac2therac]

Bac, I have a general seeding and placement question for you.
I understand why #1 and #2 seeds get placed in the reigons, but it is mostly a mystery to me how placement in the first round sites are determined. More specifficaly, I have tickets for Cleveland and am on the fence if I should go. Im assuming at least 1 or 2 Big10 teams will be there. Do you have any insights or best guesses on who might be placed there? Thanks and keep up the good work. I really appreciate and respect your opinions and hard work. This board is fortunate to have you.

Thank you

They will protect the top 4 seeds in each region and will make sure they dont put them at a geographically disadvantage with a worse seeded school. They try to stay close to geography but sometimes the site locatations do not allow for it. Its looking like Michigan State will be headed to Cleveland as a 2 seed so expect a 7 or 10. Wont see Michigan or Wisconsin there.

 

[RAC93]

At 17-14 out IMO.. I just don't think they would be waiting holding a spot for a school making a late run

Also factor in bid stealers

When do we find out how the committee is handling conference tourney wins this year and other criteria? Not until they get interviewed during the selection show and after selections are made? Not familiar with that type of info being released earlier.

 

[bac2therac]

when they start throwing out the phrase body of work

 

[bac2therac]

Villanova stays alive by dispatching of Butler

North Carolina knocks off dreadful Miami and continues to take care of business ahead of next weeks big game with Duke

Arkansas is getting absolutely mauled at last place South Carolina..50-20 with 8 minutes gone in the 2nd half. It was 32-14 at half. Make no mistake about it, while it would only be a Q2 loss, this loss would be a crushing blow to their NCAA at large chances

Nebby struggling with Minny early down 20-15 in the first half. They really need this one.

 

[RAC93]

Nebraska down 9 at the half to Minnesota, how disastrous is a home Q3 loss to Minny for them if they lose?

 

[bac2therac]

Nebraska down 9 at the half to Minnesota, how disastrous is a home Q3 loss to Minny for them if they lose?

Still in tourney but in must win mode next 2 at Ohio State and Iowa

But could have 2 Q3 losses if Rutgers slips beyond 75...actually 3 as USC is at 72

Their biggest positive was Arkansas no show today

 

[bac2therac]

Arkansas clouted by last place South Carolina 72-53. True only a Q2 loss but its a bad loss anyhow. Arky just 6-12 in Q1/2 play

 

[RAC93]

Still in tourney but in must win mode next 2 at Ohio State and Iowa

But could have 2 Q3 losses if Rutgers slips beyond 75...actually 3 as USC is at 72

Their biggest positive was Arkansas no show today

Nebraska now bouncing back in second half so they may take this one at home.

 

[shields]

Nebraska loses.

 

[bac2therac]

Nebby down to 17-12 and sliding toward the cut line. 2 wins vs Ohio State and Iowa will keep them in

 

[bac2therac]

New Mexico waxes Air Force to avoid any bad loss

 

[bac2therac]

Dayton fighting through 2 overtime to survive vs Richmond

 

[bac2therac]

Oklahoma rallied to take lead at Ole Miss in game that could have locked up a bid but fell late and now fall to 17-12. The 4-12 SEC mark is atrocious but not considered. Likely need a split of Missouri and at Texas to remain in the field

 

[BigEastPhil]

Ben Stevens has done a terrific job with minimal talent and I’m sure minimal NIL.

Nebraska does not look like an NCAA squad. It’s next game at Ohio State should be quite interesting from a bubble perspective.

 

[bac2therac]

George Mason loses at Duquense and their at large hopes are gone

 

[bac2therac]

Ben Stevens has done a terrific job with minimal talent and I’m sure minimal NIL.

Nebraska does not look like an NCAA squad. It’s next game at Ohio State should be quite interesting from a bubble perspective.

Huge bubble game...Ohio State has 2 of those coming up

 

[bac2therac]

Colorado State stunning 48-22 over Utah State at half

TCU boatracing UCF 49-30 at half

Interesting day

 

[TDIrish27]

Yes and I've seen Utah State several times and have thought they are pretty darn good.

 

[bac2therac]

Yes and I've seen Utah State several times and have thought they are pretty darn good.

Utah State not a mortal lock. Need to win next week

 

[bac2therac]

Xavier up 15 at half over Cteighton. Would be a big time boost to their profile

 

[bac2therac]

Xavier gets big win over Creighton. They only have 1 Q1 win but if they get 2 at Butler and Providence good shot to sneak in at 21-8

 

[bac2therac]

TCU ends UCF hopes. Horned Frogs will be right in thick of things if they beat Baylor and win at Colorado

 

[bac2therac]

Colorado State annihilated Utah State. Rams are in sole possession of 2nd place in Mountain West. Moving up but still not in the first 4 out

Utah State still OK but they better not **** around and find out vs Air Force

 

[bac2therac]

Wake rallies to stay alive with win over Notre Dame. Need to win at Duke

 

[bac2therac]

Indiana wins at Washington to remain in the field despite a rather bland resume

A win at Oregon would lock up a bid though

 

[bac2therac]

Pitt loses at Louisville and their bubble has officially burst

 

[bac2therac]

SMU loses at Stanford and remain out of the field with a cloudy future

 

[bac2therac]

Cincy fails to get win at Houston and now falls to 1-10 in Q1...they have 8 Q2 wins but might be a hard sell

 

[bac2therac]

Boise trailing Q4 Fresno State. A loss would realistically sink their chances to near zero

 

[bac2therac]

Vandy rallies to beat Mizzou giving them their 5th Q1 win vs teams in the field. Pretty much a lock now even without beating Arky/Ga

 

[bac2therac]

Tennessee's buzzer beater win over Alabama puts that final one seed up for grabs between the Vols, the Tide, and Florida

Incredibly tight

 

[bac2therac]

Boise averts the bad loss at Fresno

San Diego State struggling at Wyoming

Georgia up big at Texas at half

 

[Erial_Lion]

Gonzaga’s blowout win at San Fran will move them up even further in the metrics (now 8th in Pomeroy). Really tough team to handle for the committee. All stems from them being 0-7 in games decided by two possessions or less (or in OT), and 23-1 in the rest (and even the loss was a 7 point game).

 

[bac2therac]

Baylor stabilizes their spot for now by knocking off OK State. Still need 1 of 2 down the stretch.

Georgia strengthens their case by winning at Texas. The Longhorns are in serious trouble.

Gonzaga locked up a bid while ending San Franciscos at large hopes.

WVU loses at BYU but still above the bubble fray for now

San Diego State survives an ugly performance at Wyoming

 

[bac2therac]

Gonzaga’s blowout win at San Fran will move them up even further in the metrics (now 8th in Pomeroy). Really tough team to handle for the committee. All stems from them being 0-7 in games decided by two possessions or less (or in OT), and 23-1 in the rest (and even the loss was a 7 point game).

Tough for sure. I see them as 8 line unless they win the WCC tourney where they could get a 7.

 

[bac2therac]

USC moved to a Q3 loss for Nebraska...the Minnesota loss now gives them 2 Q3 losses. Rutgers precariously at 73 is a potential third Q3 loss for them. Nebraska NET sinking to 57 is worst rated NET of schools projected in field.

 

[goru7]

Vandy after beating Ole Miss, Texas A&M on the road , and now Missouri , 3 ranked teams and 2 of them ranked 10 and 14 should move from the 9 seed to an 8 and closer to a 7. They also have beaten Tennessee and Kentucky and Tennessee is likely to be a 1 seed after their win over Alabama yesterday.