Bacatology 2/17: 1st 2025 NCAA Tournament Analysis
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Daytons loss at Loyola Chicago not a good sign for their at large chances. Flyers down to 17-9 and while that only counts as a Q2 loss it drops them to 4-8 in Q1/2 games. I do not think wins over Marquette and UConn in non conference play are enough to legit put them in the discussion.
Always a great job . I'm not quite into as much this year because my team is out of it but always thought you did such a good job. What I like is your explanation on each team's chances. Really don't see that anywhere else.
thank you...very time consuming, its more than just looking up numbers or in some case bracketologist just copying others brackets.
last years Providence plus seton hall and st johns would all be in the tourney right now, thats how weak the bubble is this year and thats why I am against expansion
I agree a lot of very bad teams this year. Sec really only very good conference. Big is OK the rest are very down.
A wild and wacky day
Illinois blown out by Duke..its not the loss or margin that matters. Its that Illinois is now just 17-11 with 3 games to go. Iowa now becomes a must win given their last 2 are very tough
17-14 is problematic because next loss is 15...that is rare territory....18-15 might sneak them in....17-15 not so much
schools do not receive bids just 2 games over 500. My personal rule is 4 games above 500, Illinois a special case where 3 games above could work out.
6-9 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q2 for 11-11 in Q1/2/3 is strong but 6-12 and 11-14 is not
The point will be moot if they can win at home vs Iowa this week and then they are a lock and will end the season no worse than 18-13 or 18-14 with a first B10 tourney game loss.
if they dont beat Iowa, alot of pressure with a trip to Michigan and a home game vs Purdue left
Illinois blown out by Duke..its not the loss or margin that matters. Its that Illinois is now just 17-11 with 3 games to go. Iowa now becomes a must win given their last 2 are very tough
17-14 is problematic because next loss is 15...that is rare territory....18-15 might sneak them in....17-15 not so much
schools do not receive bids just 2 games over 500. My personal rule is 4 games above 500, Illinois a special case where 3 games above could work out.
6-9 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q2 for 11-11 in Q1/2/3 is strong but 6-12 and 11-14 is not
The point will be moot if they can win at home vs Iowa this week and then they are a lock and will end the season no worse than 18-13 or 18-14 with a first B10 tourney game loss.
if they dont beat Iowa, alot of pressure with a trip to Michigan and a home game vs Purdue left
They were embarrassment last night to the entire BIG 10 . No one is going let that domination slide losing by 45 , giving up 110 when Duke pulled their starters with 7 minutes left . Not sure they recover
In the ACC...
SMU failed to get a Q1 win by losing to Clemson. Mustangs are 20-7 but 0-5 in Q1, 5-7 in Q1/2 but does their 10-0 mark in Q3 putting them at 15-7 a difference maker. Their best win is distant bubble Pitt which means no wins vs teams in the field. They have 3 road Q2 games vs non ncaa teams and will need to win them alll
Wake loses at NC State. Its still a Q2 loss and quite frankly its not a good resume but likely still in the field due to all the futility around the bubble. 2-6 in Q1 but a solid 13-8 in Q1/2/3...3 Quad 3 home games and a trip to Duke left
Pitt loses at Notre Dame, only a Q2 loss but not the one such a barren resume could afford. Now 4-10 iwith just 2 Q2 games left
North Carolina knocks off Virginia. Tough to overcome the woeful 1-10 Q1 mark and still just 6-10 in Q1/2 but they are now 12-11 in Q1/2/3. A Q2 road game at FSU and Duke at home are opportunities.
SMU failed to get a Q1 win by losing to Clemson. Mustangs are 20-7 but 0-5 in Q1, 5-7 in Q1/2 but does their 10-0 mark in Q3 putting them at 15-7 a difference maker. Their best win is distant bubble Pitt which means no wins vs teams in the field. They have 3 road Q2 games vs non ncaa teams and will need to win them alll
Wake loses at NC State. Its still a Q2 loss and quite frankly its not a good resume but likely still in the field due to all the futility around the bubble. 2-6 in Q1 but a solid 13-8 in Q1/2/3...3 Quad 3 home games and a trip to Duke left
Pitt loses at Notre Dame, only a Q2 loss but not the one such a barren resume could afford. Now 4-10 iwith just 2 Q2 games left
North Carolina knocks off Virginia. Tough to overcome the woeful 1-10 Q1 mark and still just 6-10 in Q1/2 but they are now 12-11 in Q1/2/3. A Q2 road game at FSU and Duke at home are opportunities.
in the Biug 12
Baylor loses at Colorado, yes its only a Q2 loss but the issue like with Illinois is that it drops them to just 15-11, 4 games above 500 meaning the Bears needs to win 3 of 4 to get to 18-12....a 17-13 mark with a possible Big 12 tourney loss puts them at just 17-14. This could be a case where conference tourney win will matter to the committee...need to be 4 games over 500. Its not an overwhelming resume with 4 wins vs teams in field.
BYU in excellent shape now after winning at Arizona. Cougars have 4 Q1 wins in their last 4 games.
TCU loses at Cincy. Not necessarily a loss that damages their chances but at just 7-12 in Q1/2, this was a missed opportunity vs a distant bubble team
Cincy really still a big longshot did get the Q2 win. 1-10 in Q1 and 8-0 in Q2, will need to beat Baylor and then win at Houston to seriously considered
WVU loses at Texas Tech...no shame with that. At 16-11 though they need a split of their last 4
Baylor loses at Colorado, yes its only a Q2 loss but the issue like with Illinois is that it drops them to just 15-11, 4 games above 500 meaning the Bears needs to win 3 of 4 to get to 18-12....a 17-13 mark with a possible Big 12 tourney loss puts them at just 17-14. This could be a case where conference tourney win will matter to the committee...need to be 4 games over 500. Its not an overwhelming resume with 4 wins vs teams in field.
BYU in excellent shape now after winning at Arizona. Cougars have 4 Q1 wins in their last 4 games.
TCU loses at Cincy. Not necessarily a loss that damages their chances but at just 7-12 in Q1/2, this was a missed opportunity vs a distant bubble team
Cincy really still a big longshot did get the Q2 win. 1-10 in Q1 and 8-0 in Q2, will need to beat Baylor and then win at Houston to seriously considered
WVU loses at Texas Tech...no shame with that. At 16-11 though they need a split of their last 4
Mountain West....
Utah State looks in excellent shape after winning at San Diego State
Aztecs remain on the good side of the bubble somewhere in the last 8/10 but missed a golden opportunity for a much needed win....can they beat New Mexico next up
Boise State nabs a low end Q1 road win at Nevada. Doesnt move the needle much but a win vs Utah State next up could
Utah State looks in excellent shape after winning at San Diego State
Aztecs remain on the good side of the bubble somewhere in the last 8/10 but missed a golden opportunity for a much needed win....can they beat New Mexico next up
Boise State nabs a low end Q1 road win at Nevada. Doesnt move the needle much but a win vs Utah State next up could
WCC...
St Marys completes the season sweep over Gonzaga.
Despite the ridiculous anomoly of NET of 10. The Zags are certainly bubblicious but probably on the right side due to their ooc wins over Baylor and San Diego State but its not a particularly strong resume 2-6 in Q1 and 6-8 in Q1/2. Last 2 at Santa Clara and at USF are Q1 road games..what if they lose both? WAB/SOR are not good at 47/51
Santa Clara gets a low end Q2 win over Washington State and remain a distinct longshot...will need to beat Gonzaga to even remain a bubble
St Marys completes the season sweep over Gonzaga.
Despite the ridiculous anomoly of NET of 10. The Zags are certainly bubblicious but probably on the right side due to their ooc wins over Baylor and San Diego State but its not a particularly strong resume 2-6 in Q1 and 6-8 in Q1/2. Last 2 at Santa Clara and at USF are Q1 road games..what if they lose both? WAB/SOR are not good at 47/51
Santa Clara gets a low end Q2 win over Washington State and remain a distinct longshot...will need to beat Gonzaga to even remain a bubble
SEC...the most active day
Great try by Georgia at #1 Auburn but couldnt pull it off and the Bulldogs remain out of the field.....2-11 in Q1 and 5-11 in Q1/2 is no bueno
Texas loss at South Carolina is just a Q2 road loss but make no mistake its a bad one. Just 7-11 in Q1/2 and 9-11 in Q1/2/3... Still on the good side of the bubble, 4 games with other SEC bubble teams to end the year
Arkansas picks up a big time Q1 home win over Missouri and also moves their mark 5 games above 500 at 16-11. Its likely a 2-2 finish will be enough to keep them in the field. They are just 5-11 in Q1/2 and 9-11 in Q1/2/3
Vandy wins at home vs Ole Miss...a much needed Q1 win pushing their mark there to 3-8....7-9 in Q1/2 but now above 500 at 10-9 in Q1/2/3. 3 Q1 and a Q2 game to go. Would like to see a road win at either A&M or Georgia.
Oklahoma stopped the bleeding...coming in at just 3-10 in the SEC, the win over Mississippi State stablizes things after a 5 game losing streak. 4 Q1 games left, 2 at home. They will need to still get one of them to remain in the field. Up to 5-8 in Q1....6 wins vs the field....10-10 Q1/2/3
Great try by Georgia at #1 Auburn but couldnt pull it off and the Bulldogs remain out of the field.....2-11 in Q1 and 5-11 in Q1/2 is no bueno
Texas loss at South Carolina is just a Q2 road loss but make no mistake its a bad one. Just 7-11 in Q1/2 and 9-11 in Q1/2/3... Still on the good side of the bubble, 4 games with other SEC bubble teams to end the year
Arkansas picks up a big time Q1 home win over Missouri and also moves their mark 5 games above 500 at 16-11. Its likely a 2-2 finish will be enough to keep them in the field. They are just 5-11 in Q1/2 and 9-11 in Q1/2/3
Vandy wins at home vs Ole Miss...a much needed Q1 win pushing their mark there to 3-8....7-9 in Q1/2 but now above 500 at 10-9 in Q1/2/3. 3 Q1 and a Q2 game to go. Would like to see a road win at either A&M or Georgia.
Oklahoma stopped the bleeding...coming in at just 3-10 in the SEC, the win over Mississippi State stablizes things after a 5 game losing streak. 4 Q1 games left, 2 at home. They will need to still get one of them to remain in the field. Up to 5-8 in Q1....6 wins vs the field....10-10 Q1/2/3
Woah woah woah I was told the conference tournament does not matter.
Can Rutgers get in at 20-15
It matters at the margin like in 17-15 vs 18-15...but 15 schools teams are a distinct rarity...you know my point so why poke the bear
No rutgers 20-15 isn't getting in
Though I don’t understand why the conference tournament would matter for Illinois but not other bubble teams. Seems dumb if that’s how they really do it.
20-15
Q1: 8-12
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 1-2
Q4: 6-0
NET: 53
WAB: 46
Okay okay I’ll stop after this I respect your work too much
Q1: 8-12
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 1-2
Q4: 6-0
NET: 53
WAB: 46
Okay okay I’ll stop after this I respect your work too much
That is only 3-1 in the BTT good sir. Only a 7 game win streak needed, surely this team is good for it
Because being a certain amount over 500 matters for bids...in this particular case 18-15 is a big deal vs 17-15 but I would imagine 17-14 Illinois is likely out anyhow..I'm just saying there is a possibility it will help given their strong q1/2 wins
Yawn you are tired when I know you are capable of intelligent conversation about bubble teams but be a troll like i have seen you do in other threads here
I actually find the hypotheticals kind of interesting (I mean not so much now bc obviously we aren’t winning 7 in a row) but I know you don’t like them.
I would like throw a hypothetical 18-13 Rutgers at you when the season ends just b/c of the conversations we had earlier in the year but I don’t know if you’ll be willing to evaluate it.
Anyway great work as always as I don’t think I said it yet this year.
Well since Rutgers has 14 losses I see no purpose in a discussion of 18-13 Rutgers
If Ohio State loses to UCLA they will drop to 15-13 and at just 2 games above .500 will drop out of my field
Big time win for Indiana today. Do not know exactly where they land in right now until a full update tomorrow night but they are right there in the mix. 4-11 in Q1 and 2-0 in Q2 isnt all that impressive at 6-11 but 12-11 in Q1/2/3 helps and helps no bad losses and no loss outside Q1
Xavier got the needed win over SHU...still hanging near first 4 out
UCF deals Utah big blow while keeping their own flickering hopes alive
Kansas State is finished after their loss to ASU
Drake survives in OT and will remain an attractive at large if they aren't the MVC AQ
UCF deals Utah big blow while keeping their own flickering hopes alive
Kansas State is finished after their loss to ASU
Drake survives in OT and will remain an attractive at large if they aren't the MVC AQ
Yes
Sorry bac….this one you are off on …..but If Rutgers is 20-15, at that point will be 9-12 against quad 1 (4 current quad one wins , plus Michigan , Purdue , and three in the big ten tourney )….
I’ll even say with the logjam between 45/60 for the last 6-8 teams …if things break just right …19-15 might .
disagree and until RU gets to 17-14 its not worth discussing
beyond the very small chance RU gets to 17-14 or 19-15 or 20-15 the two other issues remain working against RU....only 3 schools have ever been selected with 15 losses and they did not do their run in conference tournaments.....and then that leads to the 2nd issue, the past several years have shown that conference tourney runs to finals do not have much impact with schools not making them or if the school did win the conference tourney, the seed was such that they never were getting the at large
I dont think RU fans should set themselves for one...a miracle scenario and two still unlikely even in that miracle scenario
if someone can find precedent for it i am open to listen but history shows alot of things working against RU not mention RU would have to run off 5 Q wins in 7 games where they only have 4 in 15 games right now
I don’t disagree about having any expectation of it to Happen …but only answering IF it happens
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