Bacatology 3/10: NCAA Tournament Analysis

[bac2therac]

While I believe Vanderbilt, Baylor, San Diego State, Utah State, and West Virginia are IN the field and none true bubble schools, it would not shock me if one of them was left out of the field. Committee always good for a curveball.

 

[bac2therac]

 

[BigEastPhil]

Bac - I have tickets for Newark Sweet 16 / Elite 8 games.

How realistic is this bracket for East:

1- Duke
2- St John’s
3 - Kentucky
4- Maryland

 

[bac2therac]

i dont see St Johns getting that 2 seed in Newark

would you like this one

1. Duke
2. Michigan State
3. Kentucky
4. Arizona

 

[MiamiWolv]

While I believe Vanderbilt, Baylor, San Diego State, Utah State, and West Virginia are IN the field and none true bubble schools, it would not shock me if one of them was left out of the field. Committee always good for a curveball.

I cannot see Texas in the field.

15 losses with the 349th non-conference SOS.

That should be disqualifying. The committee has always made a point out of non-conference scheduling.

If Texas played any sort of decent non-conference schedule, they’d be under .500.

They couldn’t even beat Ohio State on a neutral

 

[MiamiWolv]

i dont see St Johns getting that 2 seed in Newark

would you like this one

1. Duke
2. Michigan State
3. Kentucky
4. Arizona

I think they’ll put Michigan or Maryland as the 4 in the east.

Always fun to see if the committee “coincidentally” creates some interesting storyline matchups such as

St John’s-Louisville round 2?
Danny Wolf vs Yale in round 1?
Bruce Pearl vs Illinois in round 2?
Indiana v UNC in first 4?

 

[King of S]

Morning Update

2 bids up for grabs...5 schools

INDIANA
XAVIER
BOISE STATE
NORTH CAROLINA
TEXAS

One bid stealer left in the AAC....UAB

VCU will be thrown into the at large bubble mix list if George Mason wins the A10 tourney.


IMPACT GAMES


IVY

Cornell/Yale meet in the Ivy tourney final.


ATLANTIC 10

George Mason/VCU meet in the A10 tourney final. VCU will get thrown into the at large bubble pool if they do not beat George Mason. I think though VCU has less than 50/50 odds of being selected as an at large. George Mason has no legitimate at large hopes and must win the Atlantic 10 tourney.


SEC

Tennessee/Florida meet in SEC tourney final. Its very late in the game. IMO I think Florida has wrapped up this one seed regardless of the outcome but still will consider a Tennessee win and possible contigency bracket


AAC

UAB/Memphis meet in the AAC tourney final. Memphis is locked into the field already as a possible 7/8 seed regardless of the outcome. UAB represents the sole potential bid stealer left on Selection Sunday and would remove an at large spot currently available. The committee will have a contigency bracket at the ready as the American final will not end until sometime around 5PM.


BIG 10

Michigan/Wisconsin meet in the Big 10 tourney final. Michigan is straddling 4/5 and Wisconsin 3/4. Game will end at 5:30 or so, a contingency bracket could be waiting but its likely the committee has already settled on their seeding. Do not think the result will significantly matter for either school.

No. Carolina and Texas should be out. Leaves 2 bids for 3 schools baring any bid stealers. However we all know how these NCAA committees work as they love the blue bloods.

 

[G- RUnit]

I think they’ll put Michigan or Maryland as the 4 in the east.

Always fun to see if the committee “coincidentally” creates some interesting storyline matchups such as

St John’s-Louisville round 2?
Danny Wolf vs Yale in round 1?
Bruce Pearl vs Illinois in round 2?
Indiana v UNC in first 4?

Exactly. Always amused when bracketologists would claim CBS had no influence.

 

[bac2therac]

I cannot see Texas in the field.

15 losses with the 349th non-conference SOS.

That should be disqualifying. The committee has always made a point out of non-conference scheduling.

If Texas played any sort of decent non-conference schedule, they’d be under .500.

They couldn’t even beat Ohio State on a neutral

the non conference sos is not 349, its 287 but point made anyhow

12-15 vs Q123 would be a historical selection yet A&M last year with 4 Q3 losses was also historical last year.

7-14 vs the field

i agree I am not putting them in

 

[bac2therac]

Yale is going to the NCAA tourney as the Ivy rep and will likely be a 13 seed

 

[StevieB160]

i dont see St Johns getting that 2 seed in Newark

would you like this one

1. Duke
2. Michigan State
3. Kentucky
4. Arizona

What I don't understand about this or the Duke-St Johns proposal, with there being two #1 SEC seeds and two #2 SEC seeds, wouldn't each region need to have one SEC team as a 1 or 2 seed in order to avoid having SEC teams as the 1 and the 2 in the same bracket? Or does that type of thing not matter anymore?

 

[RuWishBone]

It only applies until 9 teams in the same conference choosen to dance 2 can meet before the round of 8

 

[Erial_Lion]

What I don't understand about this or the Duke-St Johns proposal, with there being two #1 SEC seeds and two #2 SEC seeds, wouldn't each region need to have one SEC team as a 1 or 2 seed in order to avoid having SEC teams as the 1 and the 2 in the same bracket? Or does that type of thing not matter anymore?

The first 4 teams from a conference should be placed in different regions as long as they are all top 4 seeds...the committee is allowed to relax that rule if additional teams from that conference appear as top 4 seeds (which will happen today), however I'd definitely expect us to see them stick to this principal and separate Auburn/Florida/Tennessee/Alabama into 4 different regions.

 

[RocktheRac]

Oh Georgie

 

[RocktheRac]

Friggan guys on Mason draining 3's in A-10 meanwhile we are soft in B1G. Our talent evaluators suck

 

[bac2therac]

What I don't understand about this or the Duke-St Johns proposal, with there being two #1 SEC seeds and two #2 SEC seeds, wouldn't each region need to have one SEC team as a 1 or 2 seed in order to avoid having SEC teams as the 1 and the 2 in the same bracket? Or does that type of thing not matter anymore?

St John's isn't going to be put in advantage at being the home team at the expense of a 1

 

[bac2therac]

The first 4 teams from a conference should be placed in different regions as long as they are all top 4 seeds...the committee is allowed to relax that rule if additional teams from that conference appear as top 4 seeds (which will happen today), however I'd definitely expect us to see them stick to this principal and separate Auburn/Florida/Tennessee/Alabama into 4 different regions.

Correct

With Kentucky and Texas A&M also projected top 4 seeds, 2 regions will have 2 SEC schools

 

[bac2therac]

VCU wins and dances from A10

Ends handwriting about their at large hopes

 

[bac2therac]

Now all eyes on UAB/Memphis.

The selection committee has a contingency bracket at the ready

 

[bac2therac]

My final field is close to being complete. Just waiting on the AAC result

 

[bac2therac]

Florida locked up the final 1 but it really wasn't in question

 

[fatsam98]

My final field is close to being complete. Just waiting on the AAC result

Good luck. You submitting to the matrix again?

 

[RAC93]

Question, when you do your bracket, which plays a bigger part in your mindset for your own bracket selection, picking the teams you think the Committee will pick or picking the best at large teams that are most deserving based upon your evaluation? I’ll give an example of what I mean, just using North Carolina as an example, if you had NC as being out based upon your full resume evaluation of the potential field, would you still possibly put them in your bracket if you felt strongly the committee was going to include them?

 

[Erial_Lion]

St John's isn't going to be put in advantage at being the home team at the expense of a 1

Why would you believe that? There is nothing stopping it, they've done it before, and their goal is to get teams close to home.

Note that I wouldn't expect it to happen if Duke ends up in the East, since I expect them to get an SEC team in the two line with them.

 

[StevieB160]

St John's isn't going to be put in advantage at being the home team at the expense of a 1

Yes but I’m saying they are going to be the 2 seed with a sec 1 regardless of location. And Michigan state will be also. Duke will get either bama or Tennessee.

 

[bac2therac]

Good luck. You submitting to the matrix again?

Thanks

Yes

 

[bac2therac]

Why would you believe that? There is nothing stopping it, they've done it before, and their goal is to get teams close to home.

Note that I wouldn't expect it to happen if Duke ends up in the East, since I expect them to get an SEC team in the two line with them.

Because it won't happen in this case

 

[bac2therac]

Question, when you do your bracket, which plays a bigger part in your mindset for your own bracket selection, picking the teams you think the Committee will pick or picking the best at large teams that are most deserving based upon your evaluation? I’ll give an example of what I mean, just using North Carolina as an example, if you had NC as being out based upon your full resume evaluation of the potential field, would you still possibly put them in your bracket if you felt strongly the committee was going to include them?

How the committee thinks not what I think but based on their principles. Takes a lot of prep work a good deal of guesswork.some you get right some wrong

Unfortunately its tough to leave my own biases out

I am still not sure on that final spot between North Carolina and Xavier.

Honestly none of the bubbles including Indiana deserve it

Let's do 66

 

[bac2therac]

UAB up 35-32 at half