Bacatology 3/3: NCAA Tournament Analysis
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Drake survives scare from Belmont to reach MVC finals. That sigh of relief you here is from bubble schools all across the globe
Indiana wins 66-60. Up to 19-12 but with Ohio State possibly out of the field, the Hoosiers have just 2 wins vs the field...2 very good wins at Michigan State and Purdue. 4-12 is really ugly but still says no loss outside Q1. Q1/2 is 9-12 which is pretty solid and Q/1/2/3 at 14-12 is very good around the bubble. Its more what they havent done wrong than what they did. I will note they have nothing ooc..just a Q2 win over Providence. I am going to take back what I said earlier...they are not a lock but in for now and if no bid stealers could be alright...still may be in first four games. They likely get Oregon in first Big 10 tourney game. Tough spot to expect a win but a win there would be a big help.
Ohio State is in trouble. At just 17-14 they will almost certainly get a 15th loss. Only 3 schools have ever got bids with 15 losses...all in the past decade but none in the past 5 years. OSU doesnt have the overwhelming profile to support that..certainly not at 17-15 but maybe not even at 18-15. 11-14 vs Q1/2/3 is a big red flag despite the solid 6-11 in Q1. Only 3 wins vs the field...at Purdue, Kentucky and Maryland if you dont include Texas and was swept by Indiana. Will conference tourney results matter? If they do getting to 19-15 or better is mandatory meaning they will need to beat whoever the 15th seed is AND the likely 7 seed Illinois at minimum.
Ohio State is in trouble. At just 17-14 they will almost certainly get a 15th loss. Only 3 schools have ever got bids with 15 losses...all in the past decade but none in the past 5 years. OSU doesnt have the overwhelming profile to support that..certainly not at 17-15 but maybe not even at 18-15. 11-14 vs Q1/2/3 is a big red flag despite the solid 6-11 in Q1. Only 3 wins vs the field...at Purdue, Kentucky and Maryland if you dont include Texas and was swept by Indiana. Will conference tourney results matter? If they do getting to 19-15 or better is mandatory meaning they will need to beat whoever the 15th seed is AND the likely 7 seed Illinois at minimum.
Xavier beats Providence to finish at 13-7 in the Big East and will play Marquette in their opening game.
Even though they are 1-9 in Q1, their Q2 mark of 8-1 brings them up to 9-10 Q1/2 and they are 14-10 Q1/2/3 which is very strong. 3 wins vs field..at Marq, UConn, Creighton
Do they have to beat Marquette or are they in before the BE tourney.
As of now I have them IN replacing Ohio State.
Even though they are 1-9 in Q1, their Q2 mark of 8-1 brings them up to 9-10 Q1/2 and they are 14-10 Q1/2/3 which is very strong. 3 wins vs field..at Marq, UConn, Creighton
Do they have to beat Marquette or are they in before the BE tourney.
As of now I have them IN replacing Ohio State.
Florida up 16 over Ole Miss looks like they will continue to be in the drivers seat for that last one seed.
North Carolina was down double digits to Duke but has cut the lead to just 1 nearing halftime
A win will put them in
A win will put them in
North Carolina loses 82-69. I don't know how they overcome 1-11 in Quad 1. How many opportunities should they get?
Oklahoma wins at Texas.
Longhorns down to 17-14 and now out of the field. Not sure they can get back in even with a deep run in the SEC tourney.
Oklahoma at 19-12 would appear close to a lock but stopping short of saying it
We shall see tomorrow who slides in as the last team in...might be a surprising choice
Longhorns down to 17-14 and now out of the field. Not sure they can get back in even with a deep run in the SEC tourney.
Oklahoma at 19-12 would appear close to a lock but stopping short of saying it
We shall see tomorrow who slides in as the last team in...might be a surprising choice
Baylor loses a close one to Houston. At 17-13 I am not sure just how safe the Bears truly are. Still in the field for now.
San Diego State routs Nevada. Look good to go but still vulnerable to be put in first 4
Omaha is dancing for the first time ever as the Summit League AQ. Tge final hasn't been played yet but St Thomas their opponent is ineligible for the NCAA tournament due to the transition wait out period
That's what I want to know. Even though they apparently have it done before tourneys now the announcers continues to talk about performance in the league events a consideration and factor. Probably not so true but would they have special "holds pending" for teams the blue bloods?
Michigan will be lucky to get a 6.
I think we could be a 7 if we take two straight blowouts.
I get the overall resume is stronger than most in that range (no bad losses, half the schedule against Q1, great road record) but if we lose four straight to end, with 3 of them as blowouts, the efficiency metrics could be used to justify a lower seed than the resume suggests
Regardless of where they end up seeded, I have little confidence in Michigan in the tournament.
No worse than 6...its not like these are losses to bad teams
You are overreacting
Body of work
9 Q1 wins and 20 Q1/2/3 wins
I tend to lean that Wednesday and Thursday conference tourney results will matter but likely none afterwards
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