BACATOLOGY 3/3: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
OSU Nebraska in a true bubble battle, Double OT, both teams keep fighting like they know if they lose they’re out
I think both with wins on Sunday could play their way back in but its tight, especially with Texas winning and UNC/SMU/Xavier lurking plus bid stealers. Neither wants to near the last in or two
SEC dream of 14 bids still alive
SEC dream of 14 bids still alive
Ohio State wins 116-112
now a gigantic bubble matchup with Indiana awaits. Winning team is in, loser....well not necessarily out but sitting in a very very precarious spot hoping no bid stealers and subject to all the other bubbles around them
we shall see when the smoke clears tomorrow with the metrics
now a gigantic bubble matchup with Indiana awaits. Winning team is in, loser....well not necessarily out but sitting in a very very precarious spot hoping no bid stealers and subject to all the other bubbles around them
we shall see when the smoke clears tomorrow with the metrics
Arkansas wins at Vandy...not a lock but big win
great night for the 3 SEC bubble
didnt expect San Diego State to lose to UNLV for a 2nd time. This one was just a Q2 as opposed to the earlier Q3 home loss. Resume takes a hit but still in but with Boise lurking, Aztecs better not screw up at home vs Nevada.
great night for the 3 SEC bubble
didnt expect San Diego State to lose to UNLV for a 2nd time. This one was just a Q2 as opposed to the earlier Q3 home loss. Resume takes a hit but still in but with Boise lurking, Aztecs better not screw up at home vs Nevada.
Forget that
Try this one on for size
Nebraska plays Iowa on Sunday
Nebraska lost to
Iowa
Rutgers
USC
Minnesota
But beat northwestern
if Nebraska looses to Iowa , and northwestern wins they are out of everything ,
Out of the ncaa AND the big ten tourney,
It’s all or nothing for them when they play Iowa this weekend
Nebraska is not getting in unless they win at least two games in Big Ten tournament.
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Tennessee
TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Florida, Michigan State*, St John's*
THREE SEEDS: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Iowa State
FOUR SEEDS: Purdue, Michigan, Texas Tech, Missouri
FIVE SEEDS: Arizona, Maryland, Marquette, Oregon
SIX SEEDS: Clemson, Saint Mary's*, Illinois, UCLA
SEVEN SEEDS: Kansas, Louisville, Mississippi, Memphis*
EIGHT SEEDS: BYU, Mississippi State, Connecticut, Gonzaga
NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Vanderbilt, New Mexico*, West Virginia
TEN SEEDS: VCU*, Utah State, Baylor, Arkansas
ELEVEN SEEDS: Georgia, San Diego State, UC San Diego*, Ohio State/Texas
TWELVE SEEDS: Indiana/Oklahoma, Drake*, McNeese State*, Yale*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, High Point*, Lipscomb*, Jacksonville State*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Utah Valley State*, Chatanooga*, Northern Colorado*, South Alabama*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Towson*, Robert Morris*, Central Connecticut State*, Norfolk State*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Bryant*, Quinnipiac*, Omaha*/Southern*/, SE Missouri*/Bucknell*
LAST 4 IN: TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: NEBRASKA, BOISE STATE, XAVIER, NORTH CAROLINA
NEXT 6 OUT: SMU, CINCINNATI, DAYTON, COLORADO STATE, WAKE FOREST, SAN FRANCISCO
Big changes....Nebraska moves out, Texas moves in just barely.
What is fascinating is that my first four schools will be playing each other this weekend. Oklahoma at Texas and Ohio State at Indiana. Winners of those games are likely in. Losers may not be out but not a spot to me in given some action around the bubble and you dont want to be sitting on the last 2 in lines with potential bid stealers lurking in conference tournaments.
bubble is very weak..i mean very weak and shrinking fast. Not like last year. Anyone advocating for expansion by 6 or 8 or 28 schools is absolutely nuts. Alot of drek would be playing.
BIG 12
Cincinnati must win at home vs Kansas State to remain in contention for an at large.
BIG EAST
Xavier must win at Butler to keep their legitimate hopes alive
BIG 10
Wisconsin's hopes for a 2 seed would end with a loss at Minnesota
SEC
Oklahoma would get "some" breathing room with a win over Missouri. A loss would not necessarily drop them out of the field.
Florida needs to win at Alabama to remain in consideration for a one seed.
Alabama win vs Florida plus a win over the weekend at Auburn would earn them a #1 seed without a doubt. A loss here would not necessarily put them out of the running for a one but would mean a win at Auburn was mandatory.
Tennessee needs to win at Ole Miss to maintain their positioning in the slight drivers seat for that final one seed.
TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Florida, Michigan State*, St John's*
THREE SEEDS: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Iowa State
FOUR SEEDS: Purdue, Michigan, Texas Tech, Missouri
FIVE SEEDS: Arizona, Maryland, Marquette, Oregon
SIX SEEDS: Clemson, Saint Mary's*, Illinois, UCLA
SEVEN SEEDS: Kansas, Louisville, Mississippi, Memphis*
EIGHT SEEDS: BYU, Mississippi State, Connecticut, Gonzaga
NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Vanderbilt, New Mexico*, West Virginia
TEN SEEDS: VCU*, Utah State, Baylor, Arkansas
ELEVEN SEEDS: Georgia, San Diego State, UC San Diego*, Ohio State/Texas
TWELVE SEEDS: Indiana/Oklahoma, Drake*, McNeese State*, Yale*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, High Point*, Lipscomb*, Jacksonville State*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Utah Valley State*, Chatanooga*, Northern Colorado*, South Alabama*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Towson*, Robert Morris*, Central Connecticut State*, Norfolk State*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Bryant*, Quinnipiac*, Omaha*/Southern*/, SE Missouri*/Bucknell*
LAST 4 IN: TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: NEBRASKA, BOISE STATE, XAVIER, NORTH CAROLINA
NEXT 6 OUT: SMU, CINCINNATI, DAYTON, COLORADO STATE, WAKE FOREST, SAN FRANCISCO
Big changes....Nebraska moves out, Texas moves in just barely.
What is fascinating is that my first four schools will be playing each other this weekend. Oklahoma at Texas and Ohio State at Indiana. Winners of those games are likely in. Losers may not be out but not a spot to me in given some action around the bubble and you dont want to be sitting on the last 2 in lines with potential bid stealers lurking in conference tournaments.
bubble is very weak..i mean very weak and shrinking fast. Not like last year. Anyone advocating for expansion by 6 or 8 or 28 schools is absolutely nuts. Alot of drek would be playing.
BIG 12
Cincinnati must win at home vs Kansas State to remain in contention for an at large.
BIG EAST
Xavier must win at Butler to keep their legitimate hopes alive
BIG 10
Wisconsin's hopes for a 2 seed would end with a loss at Minnesota
SEC
Oklahoma would get "some" breathing room with a win over Missouri. A loss would not necessarily drop them out of the field.
Florida needs to win at Alabama to remain in consideration for a one seed.
Alabama win vs Florida plus a win over the weekend at Auburn would earn them a #1 seed without a doubt. A loss here would not necessarily put them out of the running for a one but would mean a win at Auburn was mandatory.
Tennessee needs to win at Ole Miss to maintain their positioning in the slight drivers seat for that final one seed.
Of the 9 at large spots , I have Vandy , Georgia , Baylor , West Virginia , Indiana and San Diego State. That leaves 3 slots and those fighting for them are Arkansas , Texas , Xavier , Ohio State , UNC and Boise State. Everybody else is done. So 3 spots and 6 contenders. Who you got ?
I would flip Arky with Indiana.
UNC gets in with a win over Duke so alot depends on that.
Xavier is close..more so for what they didnt do than what they have done. But really their profile is behind the 3 Big East bubbles who were snubbed last year.
Boise State is getting there but have a hard time believing the Mountain West is going to get 5 based on their disastrous history in the NCAA vs ACC only getting 3.
I dont see Oklahoma on your list. They have very good wins to go along with the bulky losses. In fact they have better wins that any around the bubble
watch out for the bid stealers...VCU, UC San Diego and even Drake are attractive at large candidates. Watch out for a bid stealers from the AAC because Memphis is a lock. Also in the WCC.
UNC gets in with a win over Duke so alot depends on that.
Xavier is close..more so for what they didnt do than what they have done. But really their profile is behind the 3 Big East bubbles who were snubbed last year.
Boise State is getting there but have a hard time believing the Mountain West is going to get 5 based on their disastrous history in the NCAA vs ACC only getting 3.
I dont see Oklahoma on your list. They have very good wins to go along with the bulky losses. In fact they have better wins that any around the bubble
watch out for the bid stealers...VCU, UC San Diego and even Drake are attractive at large candidates. Watch out for a bid stealers from the AAC because Memphis is a lock. Also in the WCC.
Agreed there will be bid stealers for sure. Oklahoma ‘s lost total in the SEC bothers me. After they started 10-0 out of conference they are 17-12 which means they are 7-12 since and 4-12 in conference. 4-12 is a no no for me. I know they have close wins over Arizona , Michigan and Louisville but not lately and they look like a team that will be beat in their first game. But you are correct they have something on their resume
I agree on Arky Bac and think they still throw UNC a bid if they lose to Duke and win 2 ACC Tournament games.
If they beat Texas they will still be in but easy prey for bid steelers
I don't like their conference mark either but the NCAA claims the committee doesn't consider. Those non conference wins are so good though and they did a few more vs tourney teams
It will be tough to overcome 1-11 in Q1 with Q2 not all that impressive.
Alot of chances where they failed..they overscheduled
But does anyone think only 3 ACC schools go? In the past few years, Virginia, Pitt, and Notre Dame all got in with weak resumes
Maryland gets a huge win at Michigan. Both are going to straddle that 4/5 line in the next week. With Purdue looking solid as at least a 4, both Maryland and Michigan will not be on the 4 line, someone will be 4, someone a 5
Although NCAA says Tournaments don’t matter but do believe they will have to wait for end of SEC to seed.
Looks like Fla will beat Bama at Bama. Cliff clutch at line. Cliff nice game.
So try to seed Auburn, Tenn, Bama and Florida right now. A&M, Kentucky, Missouri lurking.
Looks like Fla will beat Bama at Bama. Cliff clutch at line. Cliff nice game.
So try to seed Auburn, Tenn, Bama and Florida right now. A&M, Kentucky, Missouri lurking.
Alabama loses at Florida and looks unlikely to get that final 1 seed. Likely to be decided between Florida and Tennessee
I know they have a game at Auburn left by the Tide are 0-3 vs the other big 3
Florida is now 3-1 and Tennessee is 2-2 vs the other big 3 with a split vs each other
Auburn is 2-1
I know they have a game at Auburn left by the Tide are 0-3 vs the other big 3
Florida is now 3-1 and Tennessee is 2-2 vs the other big 3 with a split vs each other
Auburn is 2-1
I agree somewhat.....they are only 5-3 vs the field...7-3 if you include Quinnipiac and Bryant
Still winning a down Big East likely pushes them to 2. The other option there is Wisconsin or perhaps Texas Tech
I think it will not matter if all the teams make the semis. Just going off some recent history where teams won the conference tourney but never got the bump over the team they beat
Auburn is clearly a one...either UF/Tenn gets a one with the other a 2. A&M/KY feel like 3s and Missouri I have 4 now but they dont deserve that and they are losing to OK tonight...feel more like a 5/6
Xavier gets a Q2 road win at Butler to move to 20-10. We will see tomorrow morning how their metrics look and could they bump Texas out and sneak in. That 1-9 Q1 mark is a tough sell
Cincy suffers a Quad 3 home loss to Kansas State. Now down to 17-13, 1-10 in Quad 1 and suffering there first Q3 loss, cannot really see a case made and they likely stay in that 6-10th out grouping
Great stuff BAC per usual. Don’t see how Xavier makes it with a 1-9 Q1 record. And if you are correct, which you probably are, over Texas no less. Not going to happen.
big high level Q1 win for Oklahoma by double digits. It is their 7th win vs a team in the field. I know they are just 5-12 in the SEC and the 1-7 road mark is bad...but note 3 neutral site wins over Michigan, UL, and Arizona. They belong.
Still have to remember Oklahoma in SEC.
League so good so agreed.
Just wonder with all the love for SEC if actually overrated. Wonder if MSU, Purdue, Maryland may be under rated this year. Not at all impressed with Dusty May coaching.
Have given up trying to figure out Illinois.
Watching Wiscy v Minny. Can’t tell if Wiscy overrated or Minny better than we think.
League so good so agreed.
Just wonder with all the love for SEC if actually overrated. Wonder if MSU, Purdue, Maryland may be under rated this year. Not at all impressed with Dusty May coaching.
Have given up trying to figure out Illinois.
Watching Wiscy v Minny. Can’t tell if Wiscy overrated or Minny better than we think.
Similar threads
