BACATOLOGY 3/3: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Michigan State has claimed the regular season Big 10 Title and is almost a mortal lock for a 2 seed.
SOUTH REGION – Atlanta
EAST REGION – Newark
MIDWEST REGION – Indianapolis
LAST 4 IN: TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: XAVIER, NORTH CAROLINA, BOISE STATE, NEBRASKA
NEXT 5 OUT: SMU, DAYTON, WAKE FOREST, COLORADO STATE
ACC
North Carolina will punch their ticket with a win over Duke. Can they make it with a loss? 1-11 seems ugly better pickings are slim around the cut line and the notion that the ACC will get only 3 schools seems absurd. Will depend so not out with a loss.
Wake Forest absolutely must win at home vs Georgia Tech to keep their very very very feeble chances alive.
A10
Dayton must win at VCU to keep any longshot at large hopes alive
VCU win tonight makes them close but not quite a lock if they do not win the A10 tourney
BIG 12
Cincinnati must win at Oklahoma State even to stay on the board for consideration yet they have virtually no shot at this point
Texas Tech/Iowa State/Arizona all need road victories as there is very close jockeying along the 3/4 line from the Big 12 schools
West Virginia will lock in with a win at TCU. A loss still would have them in solid shape.
Baylor will lock in with a signature win over Houston. A loss leaves them just 17-13 and likely near the first four and thus vulnerable to bid stealers
BIG EAST
St John's may need to win at Marquette to keep their tenuous spot as the final 2 seed.
Xavier can possibly move into the field with a win over Providence depending on bubble action around them. A loss likely leaves them in the last 4 out for now.
BIG 10
Wisconsin must beat Penn State at home to keep their hopes for a 2 seed alive.
Ohio State at Indiana is a win and you are in. Lose and you are sitting on the last in/last out line
Nebraska must beat Iowa at home to keep any hopes alive and that still might not get them above the cut line.
BIG WEST
UC San Diego needs to win at UC Davis which would move them to 26-4 and keep their solid at large chances alive if they do not win the Big West tournament
MISSOURI VALLEY
Drake needs to beat Southern Illinois in the MVC quarters and then the winner of Belmont/Illinois State to put them in the MVC finals which would put them in a great spot to get an at large if they do not win the tourney final.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Colorado State absolutely must win at Boise State to even remain in contention for an at large
Boise State could possibly move into the field with a win over Colorado State depending on other bubble games. A loss likely leaves them still in first four out.
New Mexico wrapping up the regular season MWC has put them almost a mortal lock but still would advise not losing a home game to UNLV which woud be their 3 Quad 3 loss.
Utah State must avoid a catastrophic Quad 4 home loss to Air Force to remain above the bubble fray.
San Diego State must beat Nevada at home to remain above the first four and as a loss could move them precariously close to the cut line
SEC
Arkansas can lock up a bid with a home win over Mississippi State. A loss could push them back to the last 4 in grouping.
Georgia can lock up a bid with a win over Vanderbilt. A loss could put them back in the last 4 grouping.
Vanderbilt is likely a mortal lock but could see their seed drift to 10/11 given their woeful non conference strength
Alabama could possibly make a case for a one seed with a win at Auburn depending on Florida and Tennessee results
Florida needs to win at home over Ole Miss to remain in the drivers seat for that final one seed.
Tennessee cannot afford a loss to South Carolina and remain in contention for a one or to be the top 2 seed.
Texas must beat Oklahoma to remain in the field just barely. A loss puts them in dire straits
Oklahoma would move close but not quite a lock if they win at Texas. A loss puts them in a precarious spot smack dab on the cut line
| 1) Auburn* |
| 16) Bucknell* / Southern* |
| 8) BYU |
| 9) Creighton |
| 5) Missouri |
| 12) Drake* |
| 4) Michigan |
| 13) Yale* |
| 6) Saint Mary's* |
| 11) Ohio State/Texas |
| 3) Texas Tech |
| 14) South Alabama* |
| 7) Louisville |
| 10) Arkansas |
| 2) Saint John's* |
| 15) Towson* |
| WEST REGION San Francisco |
| 1) Florida |
| 16) Omaha* |
| 8) Connecticut |
| 9) New Mexico* |
| 5) Maryland |
| 12) Oklahoma/Indiana |
| 4) Arizona |
| 13) Akron* |
| 6) Mississippi |
| 11) San Diego State |
| 3) Wisconsin |
| 14) Utah Valley State* |
| 7) Kansas |
| 10) VCU* |
| 2) Alabama |
| 15) Bryant* |
| 1) Duke* |
| 16) Quinnipiac* / SE Missouri* |
| 8) Mississippi State |
| 9) West Virginia |
| 5) Oregon |
| 12) UC San Diego |
| 4) Iowa State |
| 13) Lipscomb* |
| 6) Illinois |
| 11) Baylor |
| 3) Texas A&M |
| 14) Chatanooga* |
| 7) Memphis* |
| 10) Georgia |
| 2) Michigan State |
| 15) Robert Morris* |
| 1) Houston* |
| 16) Norfolk State* |
| 8) Gonzaga |
| 9) Vanderbilt |
| 5) Clemson |
| 12) McNeese* |
| 4) Purdue |
| 13) High Point* |
| 6) Marquette |
| 11) UC San Diego |
| 3) Kentucky |
| 14) Towson* |
| 7) UCLA |
| 10) Utah State |
| 2) Tennessee |
| 15) Central Connecticut* |
LAST 4 IN: TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: XAVIER, NORTH CAROLINA, BOISE STATE, NEBRASKA
NEXT 5 OUT: SMU, DAYTON, WAKE FOREST, COLORADO STATE
ACC
North Carolina will punch their ticket with a win over Duke. Can they make it with a loss? 1-11 seems ugly better pickings are slim around the cut line and the notion that the ACC will get only 3 schools seems absurd. Will depend so not out with a loss.
Wake Forest absolutely must win at home vs Georgia Tech to keep their very very very feeble chances alive.
A10
Dayton must win at VCU to keep any longshot at large hopes alive
VCU win tonight makes them close but not quite a lock if they do not win the A10 tourney
BIG 12
Cincinnati must win at Oklahoma State even to stay on the board for consideration yet they have virtually no shot at this point
Texas Tech/Iowa State/Arizona all need road victories as there is very close jockeying along the 3/4 line from the Big 12 schools
West Virginia will lock in with a win at TCU. A loss still would have them in solid shape.
Baylor will lock in with a signature win over Houston. A loss leaves them just 17-13 and likely near the first four and thus vulnerable to bid stealers
BIG EAST
St John's may need to win at Marquette to keep their tenuous spot as the final 2 seed.
Xavier can possibly move into the field with a win over Providence depending on bubble action around them. A loss likely leaves them in the last 4 out for now.
BIG 10
Wisconsin must beat Penn State at home to keep their hopes for a 2 seed alive.
Ohio State at Indiana is a win and you are in. Lose and you are sitting on the last in/last out line
Nebraska must beat Iowa at home to keep any hopes alive and that still might not get them above the cut line.
BIG WEST
UC San Diego needs to win at UC Davis which would move them to 26-4 and keep their solid at large chances alive if they do not win the Big West tournament
MISSOURI VALLEY
Drake needs to beat Southern Illinois in the MVC quarters and then the winner of Belmont/Illinois State to put them in the MVC finals which would put them in a great spot to get an at large if they do not win the tourney final.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Colorado State absolutely must win at Boise State to even remain in contention for an at large
Boise State could possibly move into the field with a win over Colorado State depending on other bubble games. A loss likely leaves them still in first four out.
New Mexico wrapping up the regular season MWC has put them almost a mortal lock but still would advise not losing a home game to UNLV which woud be their 3 Quad 3 loss.
Utah State must avoid a catastrophic Quad 4 home loss to Air Force to remain above the bubble fray.
San Diego State must beat Nevada at home to remain above the first four and as a loss could move them precariously close to the cut line
SEC
Arkansas can lock up a bid with a home win over Mississippi State. A loss could push them back to the last 4 in grouping.
Georgia can lock up a bid with a win over Vanderbilt. A loss could put them back in the last 4 grouping.
Vanderbilt is likely a mortal lock but could see their seed drift to 10/11 given their woeful non conference strength
Alabama could possibly make a case for a one seed with a win at Auburn depending on Florida and Tennessee results
Florida needs to win at home over Ole Miss to remain in the drivers seat for that final one seed.
Tennessee cannot afford a loss to South Carolina and remain in contention for a one or to be the top 2 seed.
Texas must beat Oklahoma to remain in the field just barely. A loss puts them in dire straits
Oklahoma would move close but not quite a lock if they win at Texas. A loss puts them in a precarious spot smack dab on the cut line
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in the past 5 years..excluding that weird shortened covid year, only 3 schools have received an at large with less than 19 wins....Michigan at 17-14, Rutgers at 18-13, and Oklahoma at 18-13
no school has received an at large with under 19 wins the past 2 seasons
lets see how consolidation changes things and also the big question is do they consider conference tournaments again.
no school has received an at large with under 19 wins the past 2 seasons
lets see how consolidation changes things and also the big question is do they consider conference tournaments again.
likely no
ncaa may be forced to relax some principles with so many Big 10 and SEC schools around the 4, 5, 6 and 11
Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.
Any principle can be relaxed if two or more teams from the same conference are among the last four at-large seeded teams participating in the First Four.
Whether that would apply to next round is in question. Ultimately its likely that those last four in will not be the last 4 in on Selection Sunday
ncaa may be forced to relax some principles with so many Big 10 and SEC schools around the 4, 5, 6 and 11
Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.
Any principle can be relaxed if two or more teams from the same conference are among the last four at-large seeded teams participating in the First Four.
Whether that would apply to next round is in question. Ultimately its likely that those last four in will not be the last 4 in on Selection Sunday
Dayton wins at VCU creating A10 mayhem
The Flyers arguably have the better resume than VCU even as VCU will have no worse than share possibly with George Mason for A10 title. VCU has clinched #1 seeds though
I lean to think the resume does not support VCU getting in as an at large especially when comparing to Dayton.
VCU will slip at least to an 11 and possibly a 12 heading into next week
The Flyers arguably have the better resume than VCU even as VCU will have no worse than share possibly with George Mason for A10 title. VCU has clinched #1 seeds though
I lean to think the resume does not support VCU getting in as an at large especially when comparing to Dayton.
VCU will slip at least to an 11 and possibly a 12 heading into next week
Illinois knocks off Purdue
I've been more bullish on the Illini than most of the matrix and I still like them as a 6..they will be no worse than 7.
Purdue still a 4 for now but no guarantee to keep that with Michigan, Maryland, Oregon all lurking around
I've been more bullish on the Illini than most of the matrix and I still like them as a 6..they will be no worse than 7.
Purdue still a 4 for now but no guarantee to keep that with Michigan, Maryland, Oregon all lurking around
All very close..and Oregon has a a great resume but likely falls short of 4 seed
Michigan loses 4 to Maryland if Wolverines don't beat Michigan State
Big win for Colorado St at Boise State tonight. Locks up the 2 seed in the Mountain West. They likely get a tricky one against Nevada in the Quarter, then likely Utah State/UNLV winner in the semi. I’d think it’s greater than 50/50 that a run to the championship game would be enough for them, but they’d be right on the edge.
Colorado State wins at Boise State completing the season sweep over the Broncos and securing the 2nd seed in the Mountain West Tournament.
The Rams need alot more as this was just their 1st Quad 1 win and they have nothing ooc to point plus 2 Q3 losses
For the Broncos the loss deals a serious momentum blow to their push to get an at large. Note they also were swept by San Diego State and now are the 5 seed and will play San Diego State in their opening MWC tourney game
New Mexico beats UNLV and as regular season Mountain West champ would appear to be a mortal lock as an at large
Conference as usual is competitive and CSU is playing as well as anyone right now
The Rams need alot more as this was just their 1st Quad 1 win and they have nothing ooc to point plus 2 Q3 losses
For the Broncos the loss deals a serious momentum blow to their push to get an at large. Note they also were swept by San Diego State and now are the 5 seed and will play San Diego State in their opening MWC tourney game
New Mexico beats UNLV and as regular season Mountain West champ would appear to be a mortal lock as an at large
Conference as usual is competitive and CSU is playing as well as anyone right now
I disagree. Not enough on the resume. I don't see this conference getting 4 unless Colorado State wins the whole thing
Very weak ooc. 2 bad losses and one win over Utah State in tourney won't be enough most likely....bid stealers will be lurking. Can you say their profile is better than Dayton?
I might like them more than Boise State at this point (but very close, where a run to the championship game gives CSU the push ahead). That Boise/SD State game is very possibly an elimination game, but Boise could also easily win that tourney. As you know, the Mountain West is often the conference that gets a team more than expected…and they are one of the few that play a full round robin where league standings mean a bit more. But Colorado St’s non-conference was definitely blah. Some people really we think we need to expand it to get more of these middling teams in?
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Not really. They have been good when healthy. Flu ran through the team for weeks. Injuries, too. Ivisic had mono, a badly sprained ankle and then the flu. Lost 15 pounds and practiced 3 times in a month. Even now, Morez Johnson has been out with a broken wrist, Jakucionis is playing sick, and deep reserve Carey Booth now has the flu.
Illinois had 8 different starting lineup in the last month. Never seen anything like it.
San Diego State has a way better resume than Boise. Boise 10 wins in Q4...
Colorado State was 2-6 vs teams in field. Not good enough for me. 10 wi s in Q4
I agree. Expansion would water things down and put cincy tcu Nw and ucf on the bubble
LAST 4 IN: TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: XAVIER, NORTH CAROLINA, NEBRASKA, DAYTON
NEXT 4 OUT: BOISE STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU, WAKE FOREST,
FIRST 4 OUT: XAVIER, NORTH CAROLINA, NEBRASKA, DAYTON
NEXT 4 OUT: BOISE STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU, WAKE FOREST,
St Johns/Marquette going to overtime
Redmen need this to stay as a 2 although Wisconsin doing their best to give it away vs awful Penn State
Redmen need this to stay as a 2 although Wisconsin doing their best to give it away vs awful Penn State
Ohio State up 29-25 at Indiana at half in winner take all bubble matchup
Loser can still get in but...
Loser can still get in but...
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