3-5 since Mag injury.....here are the facts

[NewJerseyHawk]

I shaved the numbers down because it is the only feasible way to explain it over the 8 games...it's more lack of guard productivity with Paul Mulcahy as the most important factor.

I am including the MSU MSG game because Mag only played 11 minutes instead of his norm 26 to 32 minutes depending how he would have played. Maybe less than 32 but no fewer than 26. MPG is minutes per game.

Mulcahy 34 MPG/6.75 PPG

Caleb 33.4 MPG/9.14 PPG

Cam 33.75 MPG/12.25 PPG

Hyatt 26.62 MPG/8.5 PPG

Simpson 18.5 MPG/ 6.5 PPG

I think 8 games is large enough sample size to account for good games, awful games and normal games in between.

If I didn't tell you anything about the team and I told you PG#1 was the least productive per minute and PG#2 was the possibly the most productive, what conclusion would you make??

If I then add in the assists, turnovers and defense, I could argue that Mulcahy still warrants playing more than Simpson anyway. But on the surface these 5 players all have to absorb 26 to 30 Mag minutes. Mag however is not a guard and Hyatt and Palmquist have done "OK".

If you want to be technical or say, RU is 2-5 instead of 3-5 since Mag, I'm not inclined to agree. But then I have to isolate the PPG/MPG and Paul drops from 6.75 to 5.25 PPG in the 7 games where Mag didn't play 1 minute. More of a technicality IMO.

It is enough of a sample of good average and not good programs in that 7-8 game sample. If you want to place Nebraska in the not good category, I won't argue against it. But it's all B1G competition.

Mulcahy at essentially 5PPG is the factor, not Hyatt or Palmquist and the rest of the team in his absence.

Solution?? Play Mulcahy 34 MPG and hope he jumps to 10 to 12PPG, which is almost impossible if he's passing or overpassing.

OR play the more productive Simpson and see what happens.

 

[SBP]

I shaved the numbers down because it is the only feasible way to explain it over the 8 games...it's more lack of guard productivity with Paul Mulcahy as the most important factor.

I am including the MSU MSG game because Mag only played 11 minutes instead of his norm 26 to 32 minutes depending how he would have played. Maybe less than 32 but no fewer than 26. MPG is minutes per game.

Mulcahy 34 MPG/6.75 PPG

Caleb 33.4 MPG/9.14 PPG

Cam 33.75 MPG/12.25 PPG

Hyatt 26.62 MPG/8.5 PPG

Simpson 18.5 MPG/ 6.5 PPG

I think 8 games is large enough sample size to account for good games, awful games and normal games in between.

If I didn't tell you anything about the team and I told you PG#1 was the least productive per minute and PG#2 was the possibly the most productive, what conclusion would you make??

If I then add in the assists, turnovers and defense, I could argue that Mulcahy still warrants playing more than Simpson anyway. But on the surface these 5 players all have to absorb 26 to 30 Mag minutes. Mag however is not a guard and Hyatt and Palmquist have done "OK".

If you want to be technical or say, RU is 2-5 instead of 3-5 since Mag, I'm not inclined to agree. But then I have to isolate the PPG/MPG and Paul drops from 6.75 to 5.25 PPG in the 7 games where Mag didn't play 1 minute. More of a technicality IMO.

It is enough of a sample of good average and not good programs in that 7-8 game sample. If you want to place Nebraska in the not good category, I won't argue against it. But it's all B1G competition.

Mulcahy at essentially 5PPG is the factor, not Hyatt or Palmquist and the rest of the team in his absence.

Solution?? Play Mulcahy 34 MPG and hope he jumps to 10 to 12PPG, which is almost impossible if he's passing or overpassing.

OR play the more productive Simpson and see what happens.

Even without the numbers, it’s so obviously an issue it’s ridiculous. The eye test. How Derek only played 12 minutes last night is simply mind boggling and an indictment of the coaching staff.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Solution?? Play Mulcahy 34 MPG and hope he jumps to 10 to 12PPG, which is almost impossible if he's passing or overpassing.

OR play the more productive Simpson and see what happens.

FIFY lol.

 

[NickRU714]

Unfortunately none of this matters it seems.
Mulcahy is a senior team captain. He's playing. He's starting.
Going to be interesting when he returns next year and is a captain again.

Just look at how Hyatt ended up here.
Reportedly HC Pike wanted him because he was the only candidate to not ask about minutes or shots.

HC Pike is about cultural more than productivity perhaps. Culture isn't benching a senior who helped the team to multiple ncaa tournaments and is a team captain. Has done nothing but been a great teammate.

 

[richthedentist]

I shaved the numbers down because it is the only feasible way to explain it over the 8 games...it's more lack of guard productivity with Paul Mulcahy as the most important factor.

I am including the MSU MSG game because Mag only played 11 minutes instead of his norm 26 to 32 minutes depending how he would have played. Maybe less than 32 but no fewer than 26. MPG is minutes per game.

Mulcahy 34 MPG/6.75 PPG

Caleb 33.4 MPG/9.14 PPG

Cam 33.75 MPG/12.25 PPG

Hyatt 26.62 MPG/8.5 PPG

Simpson 18.5 MPG/ 6.5 PPG

I think 8 games is large enough sample size to account for good games, awful games and normal games in between.

If I didn't tell you anything about the team and I told you PG#1 was the least productive per minute and PG#2 was the possibly the most productive, what conclusion would you make??

If I then add in the assists, turnovers and defense, I could argue that Mulcahy still warrants playing more than Simpson anyway. But on the surface these 5 players all have to absorb 26 to 30 Mag minutes. Mag however is not a guard and Hyatt and Palmquist have done "OK".

If you want to be technical or say, RU is 2-5 instead of 3-5 since Mag, I'm not inclined to agree. But then I have to isolate the PPG/MPG and Paul drops from 6.75 to 5.25 PPG in the 7 games where Mag didn't play 1 minute. More of a technicality IMO.

It is enough of a sample of good average and not good programs in that 7-8 game sample. If you want to place Nebraska in the not good category, I won't argue against it. But it's all B1G competition.

Mulcahy at essentially 5PPG is the factor, not Hyatt or Palmquist and the rest of the team in his absence.

Solution?? Play Mulcahy 34 MPG and hope he jumps to 10 to 12PPG, which is almost impossible if he's passing or overpassing.

OR play the more productive Simpson and see what happens.

I have not looked at the defensive numbers but when Mawot went out the star ledger had an article on the defensive numbers when Mawot was in the game vs. when he was out of the game and there was a stark difference; Now as I said I have not looked at the defensive numbers but it is so obvious where we miss him the most is on our press!! He was basically a one man press and while it didn't always produce turnovers many times it took the opposing team almost 10 seconds to get the ball across the halfcourt line meaning they didn't have as much time to get into their sets
Second is rebounding again missing Mag has really hurt
Third as I said in another post his missing on defense was never more evident than last night when we basically had no one to guard Battle and we all know what happened!!

 

[RUChoppin]

This is meaningless without comparisons to production with a healthy roster.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

NJH,

We are 3-5 and 2-5 without Mag. Going to agree with you there. Mulcahy needs to improve on the offensive end. I’ll agree with you there.

I am going to completely reject any analysis looking at PPG. The goal is, and always should be, looking at team scoring and measure it relative to the amount of possessions.

The alarming thing I have seen with Paul recently is how bad he has been defensively. As a team the drop off from Mag is a primarily a defense problem so I think attention should be placed there.

I am sick and tired of reading about Simpson. I have seen about 500 offensive possessions from him and I am sorry, but I can’t let 15 good shape my views and ignore the others.

Like it or not Paul is your point guard. If the opposing team decides to put strong ball pressure with a plus defender then let’s entertain the concept of another guy.

 

[RUChoppin]

Over the last 7 games with no Mag availability:
FG%: RU .412, Opp .444
2P%: RU .444, Opp .529
3P%: RU .339, Opp .345

Over the 15 fully healthy games prior to MSU:
FG%: RU .446, Opp .384
2P%: RU .496, Opp .425
3P%: RU .332, Opp .332

We've struggled to both score and defend inside the arc when comparing "Fully Healthy" to "Mag Unavailable" games

 

[Scangg]

Last night Simpson's lack of minutes was disappointing coming off a huge game against a bad team. It should have been a game to try to turn that one huge game into more of a trend of good play. Paul wasn't playing well so there was no reason he needed to play 35 minutes

That said part of Simpson's increased minutes were more minutes when Cam struggled or in 3 guard lineups with Paul Cam and Simpson all on the court. Minnesota starts one guy under 6'7 so Pike didn't want to go to that lineup.

These 2 other things were factors, but Pike should have still given Simpson more of Paul's minutes last night. If Simpson is struggling to run the offense, Cam or Caleb can help bring the ball up and initiate it

Bottom line Paul needs to figure it out or he doesn't need 35 minutes

 

[Scangg]

Moving forward, Boo is going to be a very tough matchup against Northwestern

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I like how we matchup with NW and Simpson has a guy he can defend....Chase Audige

 

[RUJMM78]

Every time Cliff and Cam were on the bench Minnesota had a scoring spurt and Rutgers had no scorers on the court.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

This is meaningless without comparisons to production with a healthy roster.

The team numbers are the same pre and post injury

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

I remain a big Mulcahy fan but, damn, he has outright SUCKED in many of these recent games. And he is the kind of guy WHO KNOWS IT.. and its getting to him.. which makes things worse.

Remember early last year where everything he put up rolled off.. and he then began taking desperation shots.. which made things worse... He is in the same spot.. making poor decisions on both sides of the ball as well.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

NJH,

We are 3-5 and 2-5 without Mag. Going to agree with you there. Mulcahy needs to improve on the offensive end. I’ll agree with you there.

I am going to completely reject any analysis looking at PPG. The goal is, and always should be, looking at team scoring and measure it relative to the amount of possessions.

The alarming thing I have seen with Paul recently is how bad he has been defensively. As a team the drop off from Mag is a primarily a defense problem so I think attention should be placed there.

I am sick and tired of reading about Simpson. I have seen about 500 offensive possessions from him and I am sorry, but I can’t let 15 good shape my views and ignore the others.

Like it or not Paul is your point guard. If the opposing team decides to put strong ball pressure with a plus defender then let’s entertain the concept of another guy.

I already documented in the 6 games from MSU to Michigan that PPG is equal on average. If the team average is the same over 8 games, then the missing player is not the sole reason for the win-loss difference.

You and I are watching the games....Paul is at 5PPG in the last 7 games. We struggle to score or break 60 points. He has averaged 9PPG for most of the season.

The bottom line is as Mulcahy scores and goes, RU wins. That's supported by at Purdue, at Northwestern and MSU at MSG. When he doesn't score, RU is capable of losing to anyone, including Minnesota or scoring 45 points at home to Michigan.

Starters playing the most minutes per game, need to score more than 5PPG....to discuss anything else is fine, but whatever that is, doesn't overcome the facts/numbers being what they are.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Over the last 7 games with no Mag availability:
FG%: RU .412, Opp .444
2P%: RU .444, Opp .529
3P%: RU .339, Opp .345

Over the 15 fully healthy games prior to MSU:
FG%: RU .446, Opp .384
2P%: RU .496, Opp .425
3P%: RU .332, Opp .332

We've struggled to both score and defend inside the arc when comparing "Fully Healthy" to "Mag Unavailable" games

I don't use Q4 games in any relevant equation and I would only include Temple, SHU, Miami and Wake Forest in OOC as comparison to a before and after.

Playing Central Connecticut State does nothing for me to view the games that we get judged against.

 

[Scangg]

I already documented in the 6 games from MSU to Michigan that PPG is equal on average. If the team average is the same over 8 games, then the missing player is not the sole reason for the win-loss difference.

You and I are watching the games....Paul is at 5PPG in the last 7 games. We struggle to score or break 60 points. He has averaged 9PPG for most of the season.

The bottom line is as Mulcahy scores and goes, RU wins. That's supported by at Purdue, at Northwestern and MSU at MSG. When he doesn't score, RU is capable of losing to anyone, including Minnesota or scoring 45 points at home to Michigan.

Starters playing the most minutes per game, need to score more than 5PPG....to discuss anything else is fine, but whatever that is, doesn't overcome the facts/numbers being what they are.

2 of the 5 games 40% without any Mag were against Nebraska and Minnesota who are not good defensively at all. In games with real defenses we are scoring like 59 ppg. I guess Michigan isn't good defensively either though so they should have scored more there

Agreed about Paul though. He can't play 35 minutes and score 5 points with only 3 assists. It's just simply not enough production

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

The defense pre and post Mag is also who the opponent is....Trace Jackson Davis, Derrick Walker, Hunter Dickinson, Dain Dainja are big time matchup issues for Cliff and anyone off our bench at the 5.

Did we see the same caliber PF/C in all games pre Mag injury??

You have to watch the games AND then review the numbers. Using raw numbers without accounting for the opponent is absurd.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I already documented in the 6 games from MSU to Michigan that PPG is equal on average. If the team average is the same over 8 games, then the missing player is not the sole reason for the win-loss difference.

You and I are watching the games....Paul is at 5PPG in the last 7 games. We struggle to score or break 60 points. He has averaged 9PPG for most of the season.

The bottom line is as Mulcahy scores and goes, RU wins. That's supported by at Purdue, at Northwestern and MSU at MSG. When he doesn't score, RU is capable of losing to anyone, including Minnesota or scoring 45 points at home to Michigan.

Starters playing the most minutes per game, need to score more than 5PPG....to discuss anything else is fine, but whatever that is, doesn't overcome the facts/numbers being what they are.

If you have identified a problem the question is more is there a solution. Is there a more optimal lineup mix or an optimal way for us to play.

I believe Paul is cooked for the time being. He isn't fresh and currently is a fraction of his normal self. He may snap out of it and he may not. If he is going to continue playing these minutes I don't necessarily want to see him take more shots. The 2 3 pointers he took were not good shots with 1 of them his feet weren't even set. He can make wide open 3s, but he isn't making many 3 point shots when his feet aren't set and he is landing a foot to the left and where he started.

I know you have identified a problem and I know what your solution is. I just feel, like Pike, most days we are better playing with a 70% Paul Mulcahy than the 2022-23 freshman point guard who has potential, but has played most possessions completely out of control.

I respect your opinion, but don't agree with it. However a few more games like yesterday..............

I like the NW matchup having Caleb on Buie and Simpson on Audige. Against most teams my optimal lineup down the stretch includes both paul and Derek.

 

[RUChoppin]

The team numbers are the same pre and post injury

Nope. I just posted them above. Our team level 2P% offense and defense is much worse over the last 7 games than it was with a healthy roster. On the same number of possessions, we're allowing more points than we were before and scoring fewer.

Even if you just go with our last 7 vs. the 9 healthy games prior (which shakes out games against bottom feeders like Bucknell and Coppin St):

Over the last 7 games with no Mag availability:
FG%: RU .412, Opp .444
2P%: RU .444, Opp .529
3P%: RU .339, Opp .345

Over the 9 fully healthy games prior to MSU:
FG%: RU .437, Opp .400
2P%: RU .469, Opp .431
3P%: RU .359, Opp .359

Looking at players specifically:

Min/G, by min/g for Healthy 9 (Healthy 9,Mag-less 7... total minutes played/# of total games team played)
Mulcahy (35.9, 33.7... down 2.2 min)
McConnell (33.6, 32.8.... down 0.8 min)
Omoruyi (30.7, 32.1.... up 1.4 min)
Spencer (30.2, 33.4... up 3.2 min)
Mag (26.0, 0... down 26.0 min)
Hyatt (20.7, 28.1... up 7.4 min)
Simpson (13.2, 18.7... up 5.5 min)
Reiber (5.3, 6.7... up 1.4 min)
Woolfolk (3.4, 3.9... up 0.5 min)
Miller (2.2, 1.6... down 0.6 min)
Palmquist (1.8, 13.9... up 12.1 min)

Notes: Palmquist has seen the biggest increase in min, with Hyatt/Simpson picking up most of that slack. Spencer has taken some minutes from Mulcahy/McConnell.

Now let's take a look at the per 40 min numbers for these players across the two groups of games:
Mulcahy
Healthy 9: 11.9 pts (.432 FG), 3.7 RB, 6.2 Ast, 2.0 Tov
Magless 7: 6.3 pts (.333 FG), 4.4 RB, 5.9 Ast, 2.4 Tov
Notes: Pts/40 and FG% have gone way down, Ast and Tov are both worse (Ast/Tov from 3.00 to 2.46), RB slightly up

McConnell
Healthy 9: 10.9 pts (.405 FG), 6.5 RB, 3.6 Ast, 2.5 Tov
Magless 7: 10.8 pts (.350 FG), 7.1 RB, 3.7 Ast, 1.6 Tov
Notes: FG% down, but RB and Tov improved

Omoruyi
Healthy 9: 14.3 pts (.493 FG), 12.6 RB, 3.0 Blk, 2.6 Tov
Magless 7: 17.1 pts (.506 FG), 12.1 RB, 2.8 Blk, 2.0 Tov
Notes: Scoring up, fewer Tovs

Spencer
Healthy 9: 17.9 pts (.413 FG), 5.6 RB, 4.9 Ast, 2.2 Tov
Magless 7: 15.6 pts (.440 FG), 5.8 RB, 2.1 Ast, 2.6 Tov
Notes: Scoring a bit down but more efficient, Ast and Tov are worse (Ast/Tov from 2.23 to 0.80)

Mag
Healthy 9: 13.2 pts (.569 FG), 7.4 RB, 1.4 Ast, 2.4 Tov

Hyatt
Healthy 9: 16.1 pts (.400 FG), 7.5 RB, 1.3 Ast, 1.3 Tov
Magless 7: 13.4 pts (.373 FG), 6.1 RB, 2.2 Ast, 1.0 Tov
Notes: Scoring and FG% down, RBs down, but more assists and fewer tovs

Simpson
Healthy 9: 9.7 pts (.297 FG), 3.4 RB, 2.4 Ast, 1.3 Tov
Magless 7: 14.7 pts (.435 FG), 4.6 RB, 1.8 Ast, 0.9 Tov
Notes: Scoring and FG% way up, RB and Tov improved, Asts worse

Palmquist
Healthy 9: Only played in 1 game for 16 min.
Magless 7: 10.7 pts (.450 FG), 2.9 RB, 0.4 Ast, 1.2 Tov

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Let's summarize the game plan for a RU opponent.

A) When Cliff is out of the game, drive to the basket to score or dump the ball to out PF/C and attack the rim.

There is a far bigger concern with the 6 to 7 minutes where Cliff isn't on the floor. The defensive FG%, likely goes way up when Cliff isn't on the court. Do I think those 6 to 7 minutes are critical?? Absolutely.

At the same time, I can hopefully account for that short timeframe. How do I fix the PG lack of scoring for a player on the court for 34 minutes, far outweighs by backup 5.

 

[RUChoppin]

I don't use Q4 games in any relevant equation and I would only include Temple, SHU, Miami and Wake Forest in OOC as comparison to a before and after.

Playing Central Connecticut State does nothing for me to view the games that we get judged against.

Look at my next post - I adjusted to look at just the 9 healthy games prior to shake out the bottom feeders.

Healthy 9: @Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, @Northwestern, Ohio State, @MSU, Penn St, @Iowa, Minnesota
Magless 7: @Indiana, @Illinois, Nebraska, @Wisconsin, Michigan, @Penn St, @Minnesota

 

[RUChoppin]

There is a far bigger concern with the 6 to 7 minutes where Cliff isn't on the floor. The defensive FG%, likely goes way up when Cliff isn't on the court. Do I think those 6 to 7 minutes are critical?? Absolutely.

Those minutes are more critical now that we don't have a defensive PF to help with 2P defense.
When Garcia/Payne were both on the floor (they overlapped 25 min), we had Hyatt/Palmquist covering Payne, who went for 15 pts/10 rbs on 6/8 shooting.

You also have centers that will pull Omoruyi away from the basket on offense, opening up the paint - because we don't have a defensive PF to help cover.

 

[Degaz-RU]

There are multiple factors at play here.

First, Mag’s loss was huge for both our offense and our defense. The numbers don’t lie. BUT…

Second, Mulcahy appears injured and exhausted, and he has been playing very poorly over the past several games.

I don’t usually agree with FIG’s takes, but on this point about Simpson, I agree that Simpson’s 3 or 4 good games do not warrant him automatically playing 25-30 minutes a game. As an erratic freshman, his minutes need to be managed depending on what’s happening on the floor.

 

[Scangg]

Per Bart Torvik, post Mag injury...

Overall - 119th
Offense - 198th
Defense - 66th

 

[RUChoppin]

There are multiple factors at play here.

First, Mag’s loss was huge for both our offense and our defense. The numbers don’t lie. BUT…

Second, Mulcahy appears injured and exhausted, and he has been playing very poorly over the past several games.

I don’t usually agree with FIG’s takes, but on this point about Simpson, I agree that Simpson’s 3 or 4 good games do not warrant him automatically playing 25-30 minutes a game. As an erratic freshman, his minutes need to be managed depending on what’s happening on the floor.

Mulcahy does not look fully healthy. I know he slammed face first into that screen a few games back and came out holding his shoulder, and there have been a couple other hard hits that had him grabbing one or the other shoulder since he was out several games with a shoulder injury. It's very likely he knows that the team can't afford to be down another body, and he's just gritting his teeth and fighting through pain.

I think McConnell is also fighting through back soreness/tightness, which couldn't have been helped by his impact with the floor last night. But again, he knows that the team can't afford another guy on the bench.

 

[Yeah Baby]

My eyes tell me we miss a big body down low since Mag went down. Forget the ppg this team was all about D. When Cliff leaves the game we get scored on down low a lot more now than when we had Mag. But we played a good Offensive game last night. Lots of patience and good passing. We just screwed the pooch down the stretch. Many mistakes to go around. Would have liked to see more of Simpson but that was a big team.