Ace Bailey - Big Ten Home vs Road Performance Oddities

[lion1983]

Categorize this is the inexplicable, but Bailey's home vs road splits are ... ridiculous, and make no sense ... even understanding it is a relatively small sample size:

Big 10 Home (6 games, including the Michigan State game at MSG, technically a home game):

14.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.3 blocks., 31% FG, 23.5% 3-point FG, 35.7% 2-point FG, 73.5% FT

Big 10 Home (5 games, EXCLUDING the Michigan State game at MSG, because not at the RAC):

14.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.6 blocks/g, 32.5% FG, 20.7% 3-point FG, 40.9% 2-point FG, 65% FT

Big 10 Road Games (5 games):

28.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.1 blocks/g, 58.3% FG, 58.6% 3-point FG, 58.2% 2-point FG, 65% FT

I have no explanation ... totally strange and weird ... and inexplicable.

 

[zappaa]

Categorize this is the inexplicable, but Bailey's home vs road splits are ... ridiculous, and make no sense ... even understanding it is a relatively small sample size:

Big 10 Home (6 games, including the Michigan State game at MSG, technically a home game):

14.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.3 blocks., 31% FG, 23.5% 3-point FG, 35.7% 2-point FG, 73.5% FT

Big 10 Home (5 games, EXCLUDING the Michigan State game at MSG, because not at the RAC):

14.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.6 blocks/g, 32.5% FG, 20.7% 3-point FG, 40.9% 2-point FG, 65% FT

Big 10 Road Games (5 games):

28.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.1 blocks/g, 58.3% FG, 58.6% 3-point FG, 58.2% 2-point FG, 65% FT

I have no explanation ... totally strange and weird ... and inexplicable.

It’s not uncommon for athletes to allow venues to get into their heads and affect performance.
Only success cures it

 

[Knight Owl]

Categorize this is the inexplicable, but Bailey's home vs road splits are ... ridiculous, and make no sense ... even understanding it is a relatively small sample size:

Big 10 Home (6 games, including the Michigan State game at MSG, technically a home game):

14.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.3 blocks., 31% FG, 23.5% 3-point FG, 35.7% 2-point FG, 73.5% FT

Big 10 Home (5 games, EXCLUDING the Michigan State game at MSG, because not at the RAC):

14.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.6 blocks/g, 32.5% FG, 20.7% 3-point FG, 40.9% 2-point FG, 65% FT

Big 10 Road Games (5 games):

28.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.1 blocks/g, 58.3% FG, 58.6% 3-point FG, 58.2% 2-point FG, 65% FT

I have no explanation ... totally strange and weird ... and inexplicable.

Michigan focused their D on Ace. JaMike hit his open shots, but Martini and Grant not so much. Two more made threes and it’s a buzzer beater type game.

 

[The RUT]

Kid loves shutting up opposing fans. I was thinking about it last night as well, thanks for pulling the numbers.

 

[RUChoppin]

Michigan focused their D on Ace. JaMike hit his open shots, but Martini and Grant not so much. Two more made threes and it’s a buzzer beater type game.

That's just one of the games - every defense focuses their attention on Bailey. It's just odd that he performs much better in hostile fan environments than favorable ones.

 

[goru7]

Categorize this is the inexplicable, but Bailey's home vs road splits are ... ridiculous, and make no sense ... even understanding it is a relatively small sample size:

Big 10 Home (6 games, including the Michigan State game at MSG, technically a home game):

14.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.3 blocks., 31% FG, 23.5% 3-point FG, 35.7% 2-point FG, 73.5% FT

Big 10 Home (5 games, EXCLUDING the Michigan State game at MSG, because not at the RAC):

14.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.6 blocks/g, 32.5% FG, 20.7% 3-point FG, 40.9% 2-point FG, 65% FT

Big 10 Road Games (5 games):

28.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.1 blocks/g, 58.3% FG, 58.6% 3-point FG, 58.2% 2-point FG, 65% FT

I have no explanation ... totally strange and weird ... and inexplicable.

Totally agree it is weird. He had probably the best January of any Rutgers player or maybe any BIG 10 player with his 4 games of 39,24,30 and 37 points shooting incredibly well like 90% in a half and 100% from 3 in a half or 13/15 in another game and his worst shooting game still 8/16 or 50%.

It is especially painful because clearly Michigan State and Michigan would have been wins and maybe comfortable wins with just average shooting 45%. Going back and looking at other home games against Wisconsin and Purdue he had more bad shooting nights at the RAC . Clearly again maybe the difference between a win and a loss. Michigan was the first team to severely double team him and get up and hold him off the ball so that doesn’t explain the poor shooting nights before that game at the RAC compared to the road splits in the same month of January. Odd and unfortunate for RU .

 

[runrutgersrun]

IDK...I just have a totally unsupported point of view on our RAC baskets. We seem to have tough baskets...seem tight. A lot of 'rattle around and out' shots...there are not a lot of shooter's rolls or bounces that then drop through at the RAC. However, I have to say it seems to be the case for both of whatever teams are playing there. The Barn seemed to have kinder rims. GO RU!

 

[fluoxetine]

Categorize this is the inexplicable, but Bailey's home vs road splits are ... ridiculous, and make no sense ... even understanding it is a relatively small sample size:

Big 10 Home (6 games, including the Michigan State game at MSG, technically a home game):

14.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.3 blocks., 31% FG, 23.5% 3-point FG, 35.7% 2-point FG, 73.5% FT

Big 10 Home (5 games, EXCLUDING the Michigan State game at MSG, because not at the RAC):

14.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.6 blocks/g, 32.5% FG, 20.7% 3-point FG, 40.9% 2-point FG, 65% FT

Big 10 Road Games (5 games):

28.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.1 blocks/g, 58.3% FG, 58.6% 3-point FG, 58.2% 2-point FG, 65% FT

I have no explanation ... totally strange and weird ... and inexplicable.

He went nuts twice and it happened to be on the road. We’re talking about 5 game samples of a very inconsistent player; it’s just random noise lol.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Wonder if we should be practicing and shooting more at the RAC …wonder how much we do there now that we have the APC

 

[goru7]

He went nuts twice and it happened to be on the road. We’re talking about 5 game samples of a very inconsistent player; it’s just random noise lol.

Those are not random noise. If the splits were 50% like only 7/14 versus 3/15 okay but they were 90% along with 100% from 3 and 100% from the line versus 3/15 or 4/17. Those are drastic splits.

 

[fluoxetine]

Those are not random noise. If the splits were 50% like only 7/14 versus 3/15 okay but they were 90% along with 100% from 3 and 100% from the line versus 3/15 or 4/17. Those are drastic splits.

It’s five games, you guys really need to learn like basic arithmetic and shit.

Oooo oooo now do his weekday vs weekend splits! All his 30 point games have been during the week, so weird, inexplicable, etc, maybe he should practice more at playing at the weekend

 

[Jersey Al64]

Maybe the home games were against better teams.

 

[fluoxetine]

Maybe the home games were against better teams.

This is also true.

 

[Big East Beast]

Categorize this is the inexplicable, but Bailey's home vs road splits are ... ridiculous, and make no sense ... even understanding it is a relatively small sample size:

Big 10 Home (6 games, including the Michigan State game at MSG, technically a home game):

14.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.3 blocks., 31% FG, 23.5% 3-point FG, 35.7% 2-point FG, 73.5% FT

Big 10 Home (5 games, EXCLUDING the Michigan State game at MSG, because not at the RAC):

14.2 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.6 blocks/g, 32.5% FG, 20.7% 3-point FG, 40.9% 2-point FG, 65% FT

Big 10 Road Games (5 games):

28.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.1 blocks/g, 58.3% FG, 58.6% 3-point FG, 58.2% 2-point FG, 65% FT

I have no explanation ... totally strange and weird ... and inexplicable.

I blame the Grease Trucks

 

[RUChoppin]

It’s five games, you guys really need to learn like basic arithmetic and shit.

Oooo oooo now do his weekday vs weekend splits! All his 30 point games have been during the week, so weird, inexplicable, etc, maybe he should practice more at playing at the weekend

Looking at his 20+ pts games (and their NET):

39 pts / 8 rb - @Indiana (65)
37 pts / 6 rb - @Northwestern (57)
30 pts / 7 rb - @PSU (53)
24 pts / 11 rb - @Nebraska (55)
24 pts / 10 rb - (n)Texas A&M (14)
24 pts / 8 rb - Columbia (227)
23 pts / 10 rb - Merrimack (177)
22 pts / 4 rb - (n)Alabama (6)
21 pts / 7 rb - Seton Hall (193)
20 pts / 10 rb - UCLA (28)

Even if it's just random variance... it's at least a bit coincidental that he's had his best performances away from the RAC.

 

[RCBeta79]

Ace is Pressing in home games.
He needs to let the game come to him...instead of one-on-one NBA style play.

 

[goru7]

It’s five games, you guys really need to learn like basic arithmetic and shit.

Oooo oooo now do his weekday vs weekend splits! All his 30 point games have been during the week, so weird, inexplicable, etc, maybe he should practice more at playing at the weekend

There is not 1 home game this year including the St. John’s exhibition game , so that is 10 games at the Rac where he has shot like he did in January on the road . No 100% from 3; no 100% from the line , no 90% shooting in a half , no 87% for the game (13/15) against Penn State. You can talk models and statistics but try to see facts and your eyes. His shooting on the road is so much better than the RAC especially on the same month of January.

 

[fluoxetine]

There is not 1 home game this year including the St. John’s exhibition game , so that is 10 games at the Rac where he has shot like he did in January on the road . No 100% from 3; no 100% from the line , no 90% shooting in a half , no 87% for the game (13/15) against Penn State. You can talk models and statistics but try to see facts and your eyes. His shooting on the road is so much better than the RAC especially on the same month of January.

Good point, he can probably repeat 10/10 performances from three all the time.. as long as it’s not at the RAC

 

[lion1983]

It IS a small sample size - I even said so.

It is still an oddity. Which was my main point.

 

[goru7]

Maybe the home games were against better teams.

Against all teams from St. John’s exhibition forward. 10 games. No cherry picking.

 

[goru7]

Good point, he can probably repeat 10/10 performances from three all the time.. as long as it’s not at the RAC

So you do not find it odd or unusual.

 

[RUsojo]

It IS a small sample size - I even said so.

It is still an oddity. Which was my main point.

But it’s not an oddity bc of the sample size which is the main counter point.

 

[RUJMM78]

It’s not uncommon for athletes to allow venues to get into their heads and affect performance.
Only success cures it

Players should score better at home because of crowd support and being used to the arena and shooting at the baskets .Bailey's stats are highly unusual.

 

[zappaa]

Players should score better at home because of crowd support and being used to the arena and shooting at the baskets .Bailey's stats are highly unusual.

Should and reality are two different things.

 

[fluoxetine]

So you do not find it odd or unusual.

I think Ace is unusually streaky. Given that I don't find it that odd that his great performances came on the road. Especially, as pointed out by another poster, because we have played much weaker teams on the road during the conference schedule.

 

[goru7]

I think Ace is unusually streaky. Given that I don't find it that odd that his great performances came on the road. Especially, as pointed out by another poster, because we have played much weaker teams on the road during the conference schedule.

Penn State , UCLA are not weaker defensively than Wisconsin , Purdue , or Michigan

 

[rpiseman]

Home court isn’t an advantage for us anymore.

Dating back to the final month of the 2022-23 season, Rutgers has lost 11 of its last 18 Big Ten home games at Jersey Mike’s Arena.

 

[goru7]

Home court isn’t an advantage for us anymore.

Dating back to the final month of the 2022-23 season, Rutgers has lost 11 of its last 18 Big Ten home games at Jersey Mike’s Arena.

Now that is a true statement. Having been a season ticket holder for years , it doesn’t have the buzz pregame before a huge game like the 2019 - 2020 Rac before Covid or the Rac at the end of Ron, Geo and Caleb’s last years. The lack of even adequate or mediocre shooting on those games is the difference between being 11 or 13 out of 18 wins versus the actual 7-11 record. We closed games with more clutch performances offensively and defensively helped by the RAC with those teams and getting bad bad shooting and unclutch performances by the last 2 year teams.

 

[RAC93]

I blame the Grease Trucks

Or the bus system?? Either way, another example of the RU Screw at work 😂

 

[fluoxetine]

Penn State , UCLA are not weaker defensively than Wisconsin , Purdue , or Michigan

Penn St is. Not sure why you included UCLA

 

[fluoxetine]

Home court isn’t an advantage for us anymore.

Dating back to the final month of the 2022-23 season, Rutgers has lost 11 of its last 18 Big Ten home games at Jersey Mike’s Arena.

Of course home court is an advantage. You can lose game in spite of an advantage.

 

[bethlehemfan]

As a kid in college you used to be able to walk into the rac and shoot hoops. At least nobody ever stopped me. I thought that place was a shooters heaven. The sight lines were awesome. Threes were like layups. Of course the place was empty and there weren’t d1 athletes rushing at me. Lol.

 

[Unionst]

Of course home court is an advantage. You can lose game in spite of an advantage.

It’s less of one this year. Yesterday the students didn’t fill in their seats and showed up late. At its loudest the arena was just not very loud. The only old fashioned energy this year was the Penn State game and to a lesser extent Seton Hall. Part of this I blame on the team not winning at a home and part on the dominance of the crowd deflating techno music and endless tee shirt tosses that suck the place dead. Couldn’t even get up a defense chant yesterday. It’s just not much of a home court advantage this year. I’m sure there are more reasons than those I mentioned.