Bac, couple things, I think the question really is IF we win our last 3 and are 18-13 how many BIG tourney games do we need to win? Let’s say we go 2-1 and finish 20-14. I personally think that’s enough for bubble talk. Plus isn’t it more than 6 teams in the tourney? In that case we would have finished the season 10-4 since Williams played.run the table for regular season.....at 18-13 nope
while 5-9 in Q1 and 4-2 in Q2 puts us at a decent 9-12 in Q1/2 with 6 wins vs teams in field: Wisconsin 2x, Nebby 2x, SHU, NW, our Q1/2/3 record would just be 11-13 and being below 500 with that many losses is a no go...if we had beaten Maryland...that one game difference would have made a lot as we would be 10-12 and 12-13, a little more palpable. Plus even with those 6 win vs teams in the field, its lacking the marquee win as Wisconsin has fallen off. If you compare that to Seton Hall and Providence showing wins over UConn/Marq and Creig/Marq that falls short. Our NET and SOR will still languish no better than 70 tops for the net unless we won the road games by 20. Plus given a loss in the Big 10 tourney, that is 14 losses, its very very hard to get to the NCAA tourney with that many losses unless you have multiple high level wins or a strong sos. The only school this year with a shot at dancing with that many losses is Villanova.
of course if you man run the table and win the Big 10 tourney, we are probably looking at a 10 seed.
It's a long shot but we definitely have a chance. Like you said, if we bring our elite D, that should keep us in games. If the offense has a hot few games, you never know...I’m not looking at it this way - but a variation.
The goal is to try and do enough to secure that 10 seed spot and make a run for the auto bid. We have a flawed roster, but the elite D gives us at least long shot potential to go on a run for that auto bid if we could get hot from the floor for a few games.
If we win the next one, discussion about possible tie breakers for BIg tourney seeding can start.
I’m not looking at it this way - but a variation.
The goal is to try and do enough to secure that 10 seed spot and make a run for the auto bid. We have a flawed roster, but the elite D gives us at least long shot potential to go on a run for that auto bid if we could get hot from the floor for a few games.
If we win the next one, discussion about possible tie breakers for BIg tourney seeding can start.
I've considered this as a problem. @Greene Rice FIG would be the champion of this thoughtIsn't it the opposite that we poorly set up to make a run?
Havent some been saying part of the reason for beating Michigan was the team looking rested after being tired at UMD?
If that's the case, then winning 3 back to back games seems it would hit us exponentially. Especially if expending so much energy on defense.
too many losses and there are better options...like I have been saying...the trend is looking like the field is basically selected before conference tournaments based on the past few yearsBac, couple things, I think the question really is IF we win our last 3 and are 18-13 how many BIG tourney games do we need to win? Let’s say we go 2-1 and finish 20-14. I personally think that’s enough for bubble talk. Plus isn’t it more than 6 teams in the tourney? In that case we would have finished the season 10-4 since Williams played.
I agree that it doesn't appear the committee cares about the conference tournaments, but if they are setting the field and not considering tournament performance (outside champion) then they should publicly say so and make it not part of the criteriatoo many losses and there are better options...like I have been saying...the trend is looking like the field is basically selected before conference tournaments based on the past few years
committee is not looking at schools making a resume in a week
I know you’re right about this. But it’s weird that the committee all but ignores games that are played. Rhetorical question, but on the Team Sheets, do they have pre-conference tournament quad records and have the conference tournament games as a footnote or something?too many losses and there are better options...like I have been saying...the trend is looking like the field is basically selected before conference tournaments based on the past few years
committee is not looking at schools making a resume in a week
NoI know you’re right about this. But it’s weird that the committee all but ignores games that are played. Rhetorical question, but on the Team Sheets, do they have pre-conference tournament quad records and have the conference tournament games as a footnote or something?
I mean if we were to win six games in a row and lose in the final I think it’s plausible. The more implausible thing is that actually happening. Winning 6 in a row against B1G competition is a lot to ask even for good teams.more plainly
Rutgers is not on mine or any other bracketlogists last 16 schools out
I would put RU somewhere in the 18-20th team out range
What you are asking is a school not even on the radar to vault into the field in just 15 days times...would not seem a plausible scenerio
DisagreeThe autobid is more likely that an at-large at this point. They’re both really unlikely.
well we can say that about half the power conference schools right nowI mean if we were to win six games in a row and lose in the final I think it’s plausible. The more implausible thing is that actually happening. Winning 6 in a row against B1G competition is a lot to ask even for good teams.
more concerned about losses...14 than winsDoes bac have a database or inventory of teams on the bubble gaining or losing players to injury?
this is GRF March meter
18 - get ready for NIT
19 - tune in to selection show
20 - research airfares and Waze Dayton, OH
21 - expect to play Thurs or Friday
I feel extremely confident that even if we win out and make the B1G semifinals we will not get an at-large bid. <1% chance. Conference tourneys just don't move the needle, especially the B1G's played so close to Selection SundayDoes bac have a database or inventory of teams on the bubble gaining or losing players to injury?
this is GRF March meter
18 - get ready for NIT
19 - tune in to selection show
20 - research airfares and Waze Dayton, OH
21 - expect to play Thurs or Friday
possible committee erases one of them because of jwill?more concerned about losses...14 than wins
NOpossible committee erases one of them because of jwill?
that seems to be the caseI feel extremely confident that even if we win out and make the B1G semifinals we will not get an at-large bid. <1% chance. Conference tourneys just don't move the needle, especially the B1G's played so close to Selection Sunday
did you forget Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota
a run is coming....did you forget Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota
Rutgers just beat a team who lost 17 of 19 and we are debating NCAA bids
Rutgers is 5-3 with J Will with Maryland kicking our ass on our home court and a loss to a team on the road in Minnesota that has no shot as an at large but is still ahead of us in the pecking orderdid they erase a win because of mag?
Pike in 6 prior years only had one run of life in the Big 10 tourney and has never advanced beyond the quarterfinalsa run is coming....
In the Pike era there are ebbs and flows....we either are great for stretches or bad.
Take away any positives on offense as we played Michigan.....keep the positives on D. We reversed our brutal stetch on D
stop taking sweetpea medsSit back, grab your beverage of choice....night owls brew that pot of coffee.
We are going on a run and we are getting an at large
someone slipped something in my organic kombuchastop taking sweetpea meds
There are 64 teams with positive WAB. To get into the top 50 you need to be at +0.7. +1.1 is 46th. If the field were selected by WAB getting to zero would not be good enough.BAC angry emotion coming....
win the last 3 we are positive WAB
right you areThere are 64 teams with positive WAB. To get into the top 50 you need to be at +0.7. +1.1 is 46th. If the field were selected by WAB getting to zero would not be good enough.
Realistically we need to win at least 5 in a row to even have a 50/50 shot at the at large right? I don't know. We get the autobid in 0.3% of Torvik's sims and get zero at larges. I'm not sure how good his sims are though.we have a better at large IMO
Delusional @RUDiddy777 with a whiff of a post.