We, improbably, run the table? (And no, I haven’t started at noon on a Friday).
Bac - what if…
- Thread starter RUDiddy777
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What does run the table mean in regards to BIG tourney?
Let's say we win out last 3 regular season and go 1-1 in BIG tourney. That to me is NIT.
Let's say we win out last 3 regular season and go 1-1 in BIG tourney. That to me is NIT.
run the table for regular season.....at 18-13 nope
while 5-9 in Q1 and 4-2 in Q2 puts us at a decent 9-12 in Q1/2 with 6 wins vs teams in field: Wisconsin 2x, Nebby 2x, SHU, NW, our Q1/2/3 record would just be 11-13 and being below 500 with that many losses is a no go...if we had beaten Maryland...that one game difference would have made a lot as we would be 10-12 and 12-13, a little more palpable. Plus even with those 6 win vs teams in the field, its lacking the marquee win as Wisconsin has fallen off. If you compare that to Seton Hall and Providence showing wins over UConn/Marq and Creig/Marq that falls short. Our NET and SOR will still languish no better than 70 tops for the net unless we won the road games by 20. Plus given a loss in the Big 10 tourney, that is 14 losses, its very very hard to get to the NCAA tourney with that many losses unless you have multiple high level wins or a strong sos. The only school this year with a shot at dancing with that many losses is Villanova.
of course if you man run the table and win the Big 10 tourney, we are probably looking at a 10 seed.
while 5-9 in Q1 and 4-2 in Q2 puts us at a decent 9-12 in Q1/2 with 6 wins vs teams in field: Wisconsin 2x, Nebby 2x, SHU, NW, our Q1/2/3 record would just be 11-13 and being below 500 with that many losses is a no go...if we had beaten Maryland...that one game difference would have made a lot as we would be 10-12 and 12-13, a little more palpable. Plus even with those 6 win vs teams in the field, its lacking the marquee win as Wisconsin has fallen off. If you compare that to Seton Hall and Providence showing wins over UConn/Marq and Creig/Marq that falls short. Our NET and SOR will still languish no better than 70 tops for the net unless we won the road games by 20. Plus given a loss in the Big 10 tourney, that is 14 losses, its very very hard to get to the NCAA tourney with that many losses unless you have multiple high level wins or a strong sos. The only school this year with a shot at dancing with that many losses is Villanova.
of course if you man run the table and win the Big 10 tourney, we are probably looking at a 10 seed.
At this point we would have to make the BIG finals which would put us at 21 wins and presumably in the BIG tourney would add atleast 2 more Q1 wins and a Q2 to get us probably in the dance.
Run the table at 18-13 and then 1-1 in BIG tourney and that lands us in the NIT. That is just my opinion.
Run the table at 18-13 and then 1-1 in BIG tourney and that lands us in the NIT. That is just my opinion.
I can take a stab.
We would be in the conversation, SOS 11-15th hardest, but not in.
An 18-13 Rutgers NET Record
Q1 5-9 Q2 4-3 Q3 2-1 Q4 7-0, Q1/2 9-12, Q1/2/3 11-13, maybe mid 70s or 66-75 depending how efficient we are winning these three games
N Princeton L 52 (Q2 to Q1 1-50), @ Minn L 76(Q2 to Q1 1-75), Bryant W 167(Q4 to Q3 76-160) could improve the resume slightly Q1 5-10 or 5-11, Q2 4-2 or 4-1, Q3 could get to 3-1 if Bryant routs NJIT and Albany at home.
We would be in the conversation, SOS 11-15th hardest, but not in.
An 18-13 Rutgers NET Record
Q1 5-9 Q2 4-3 Q3 2-1 Q4 7-0, Q1/2 9-12, Q1/2/3 11-13, maybe mid 70s or 66-75 depending how efficient we are winning these three games
N Princeton L 52 (Q2 to Q1 1-50), @ Minn L 76(Q2 to Q1 1-75), Bryant W 167(Q4 to Q3 76-160) could improve the resume slightly Q1 5-10 or 5-11, Q2 4-2 or 4-1, Q3 could get to 3-1 if Bryant routs NJIT and Albany at home.
If we win out, then advance to the B1G semifinals, we'll be going to the Big Dance. They wouldn't keep us out with a 20-14 record, especially if one of the B1G tourney wins is over Purdue or Illinois in the quarterfinals.
It's all a pipe dream... and who doesn't like daydreaming? 😊
It's all a pipe dream... and who doesn't like daydreaming? 😊
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Yes, I think running table of regular season & getting to “CBS Saturday” in the BTT should get us to Dayton at least..
by recent history, the conference tourneys are not considered all that much if you dont have a ncaa type resume beforehand...see vandy and texas a&m in recent seasons.
this resume is behind Villanova and many other bulky loss schools...like Kansas State and Iowa
our sor and net is a no go and it isnt going to improve that much. both are working against RU
we dont have the stuff needed on a resume to support a selection at 18-13
Yes I would agree with the recency bias on this, however I think it would be hard to ignore the what would be 7 game winning streak heading into the finals with multiple Q1 wins.
Odds are obviously low so its a mute point but just my two cents along with a weaker bubble.
What is our status if we reach the B1G championship game but lose?
That's 3 more regular season wins -- two quad ones (Nebby, Wisky) and a quad two (OSU). 18-13.
Presumably we avoid the bottom four in B1G, so we have single bye, then win second round, third round, and semifinal game, then lose final. That's 21-14, but with three more quad 1/2 wins and a quad 1 loss.
Where would we stand at 21-14 post B1G tournament?
And yes I realize this is all fantasy.
Run the table and lose in the B1G title game would be an interesting scenario. Would still be square on the bubble and based on recent history and still left out because the committee bizarrely doesn’t care about conference tournaments. …but people here would definitely go nuts…lol
im just going off of what they did with Texas A&M a couple years back who reached the SEC finals with a 23-12 record net 42 with 4 Q1 wins in 6 days and Vandy last season who won 10 of 11 made the sec semis after beating Kentucky for the second time, 5 Q 1 wins in all but a lagging net of 80 with a couple of bad losses...20-14
that didnt matter to Texas A&M and they took a woeful Notre Dame team with just 2 Q1 wins over them
here is the issue...there are contigency brackets in place in case of a conference tourney upset on a sunday in the A10 or for if someone 500 power 6 school got to the conference tourney finals and ends up winning when wouldnt be selected otherwise.
however the field is set basically before that Saturday afternoon. I do not think those semi finals games are being looked at where they are bouncing teams out of the field. There is a whole seeding process that also has to be worked out and that is what is being finalized.
now big east has a few bubbles...and those quarterfinal games could play role but beyond that probably not
you cannot make a resume in a week. perhaps back in the day things were different, its just the trend that we are seeing as of late, perhaps this year things change
however the field is set basically before that Saturday afternoon. I do not think those semi finals games are being looked at where they are bouncing teams out of the field. There is a whole seeding process that also has to be worked out and that is what is being finalized.
now big east has a few bubbles...and those quarterfinal games could play role but beyond that probably not
you cannot make a resume in a week. perhaps back in the day things were different, its just the trend that we are seeing as of late, perhaps this year things change
Let's just do what UConn did in 2011.... come into the conference tournament as a 9 seed, then win out for a NC! 😁
I think we need to get to 20-14 to have a realistic shot, and even then I wouldn't bet on it at even money.
We are not going to the ncaa tourney. We blew that last week. Now NIT is still a possibility.
I agree with this in how they handle it and that conference tournaments outside of unexpected tournament winners do not have the meaning that they used to, which is a shame because there are opportunities for Q1 wins out there in those tournaments for teams. On the flip side, I understand that the turn around time to evaluate the impact of a team picking up extra wins that could impact seeding lines is too compressed.
Hopefully they close the season strong enough to get into the NIT to get some extra games as a fan.
An 18-13 regular season record with no Q4 losses, would be a better resume than last year's 18 wins. It would also bake in a 8-3 regular season record in B1G play with JWill.
I still don't see bacs fascination with SHU beating UCONN where Clingan played just a couple of minutes into the 2nd half. I also don't see where a lot of quality wins are factored in, RU at 18-13, would be more than on the bubble. It would have 4 road wins in its last 6 games headed to Minneapolis.
And RU would be almost a 6 point underdog or more in both road games at Nebraska and Wisconsin, so the metrics would gobble those results up.
It's hard to ignore that type of close of the season. Obviously no RU fan factored in winning both Wisconsin and Nebraska, the goal would have been beating Maryland and finding one of the 2 remaining home games.
I think Ohio State and their resurgence, adds another quality "win", to the resume, it's not a given that Ohio State appeared to be 3 to 4 weeks ago. All 3 remaining games are challenging ones and probably more competitive than we care to admit.
I still don't see bacs fascination with SHU beating UCONN where Clingan played just a couple of minutes into the 2nd half. I also don't see where a lot of quality wins are factored in, RU at 18-13, would be more than on the bubble. It would have 4 road wins in its last 6 games headed to Minneapolis.
And RU would be almost a 6 point underdog or more in both road games at Nebraska and Wisconsin, so the metrics would gobble those results up.
It's hard to ignore that type of close of the season. Obviously no RU fan factored in winning both Wisconsin and Nebraska, the goal would have been beating Maryland and finding one of the 2 remaining home games.
I think Ohio State and their resurgence, adds another quality "win", to the resume, it's not a given that Ohio State appeared to be 3 to 4 weeks ago. All 3 remaining games are challenging ones and probably more competitive than we care to admit.
In the very unlikely scenario that Rutgers wins out until the B1G finals, that would likely give them 7 Quad 1 wins with 6 of them coming after getting back their best player. I would think that separates them from those Texas A&M and Vandy teams.
Shu beat uconn and marquette
Rutgers will have no wins vs any top 4 seeds
Net and sor both poor
Im sure you can say that about 55 power 6 teams right now about getting 7 Q1 wins by running through the rest of the season and conference tourneys
With three games remaining fans should be more concerned about the team having a winning record where there is a very small margin for error against Nebraska,Wisconsin and Ohio State.Rutgers woeful offense doesn't travel well on the road.
18-13 doesn’t exist in a vacuum though, the Big Ten was stronger last year and the bubble probably is stronger this year
Rutgers had a win at Purdue last year with a NET of 40...no world exists where a 18-13 resume is better this year than last
Can we have a karma-gods-intervene B1G tournament?
- Game 1 - We're up 2 points and intercept a pass but travel, step out of bounds, and throw the ball into the stands while the clocks runs to 0.00.... but the refs just run off the court with no call (RU vs. SJU, 2011)
- Game 2 - We're down by 1 point with time running out, but the clock freezes at 0.2 seconds to give an extra second for us to get fouled before the buzzer. We hit both FTs and move on. (RU Women @ Tennessee, 2008)
- Game 3 - We're down 2 points and shoot a three from out of bounds to win by 1 point at the buzzer, but the refs allow it and we move into the next game (RU @ OSU, 2022)
- Game 4 - Edey picks up his 5th foul in just 15 min on the court with the Boilers up 8 points. We outscore them 31-11 over the final 10 minutes. (RU @ OSU, 2020)
Honorable mention: We're down by one... long inbounds pass gets tipped to the corner, where we kiss a three off the glass for a buzzer-beating win (RU vs. Iowa, 2019)
- Game 1 - We're up 2 points and intercept a pass but travel, step out of bounds, and throw the ball into the stands while the clocks runs to 0.00.... but the refs just run off the court with no call (RU vs. SJU, 2011)
- Game 2 - We're down by 1 point with time running out, but the clock freezes at 0.2 seconds to give an extra second for us to get fouled before the buzzer. We hit both FTs and move on. (RU Women @ Tennessee, 2008)
- Game 3 - We're down 2 points and shoot a three from out of bounds to win by 1 point at the buzzer, but the refs allow it and we move into the next game (RU @ OSU, 2022)
- Game 4 - Edey picks up his 5th foul in just 15 min on the court with the Boilers up 8 points. We outscore them 31-11 over the final 10 minutes. (RU @ OSU, 2020)
Honorable mention: We're down by one... long inbounds pass gets tipped to the corner, where we kiss a three off the glass for a buzzer-beating win (RU vs. Iowa, 2019)
in the final in Minny we get war protestors on the court and its declared no contest....into the NIT we go
And if we win all of them by 30 points, we would be hard to ignore.
Love that so many people are engaging in the fantasy! I'm here for it.
This team will never lose again?
This team will never lose again?
Nope - not this time. Instead, somehow we’re playing OSU in a bid spoiler match up. We’re down 2 and about to lose a heartbreaker but with 2 seconds left Hyatt runs out of bounds and then back in - nobody on OSU is guarding him as they realize he’s an ineligible ball recipient but the pass goes to him anyway. Fortunately - it’s the same ref crew from last year and they miss it once again. He drains the 3 with time expiring to secure the auto bid.
Would be nice to see committee give “makeup selection call” if we had reverse scenario of last year. (In this case player addition leading to 10-4 finish) & getting bid, hoping but not likely OR
Next year getting benefit of doubt, being a top 4 seed & local road to “San Antone”. Probably not
I am more expecting a Sixth Seed in Seattle..
Next year getting benefit of doubt, being a top 4 seed & local road to “San Antone”. Probably not
I am more expecting a Sixth Seed in Seattle..
We could lose the next three just so we don't have to win so many in a row. Just the 2 tourneys
I’m not looking at it this way - but a variation.
The goal is to try and do enough to secure that 10 seed spot and make a run for the auto bid. We have a flawed roster, but the elite D gives us at least long shot potential to go on a run for that auto bid if we could get hot from the floor for a few games.
If we win the next one, discussion about possible tie breakers for BIg tourney seeding can start.
I'm not thinking this way either, just being a smart 🫏 in response to Scangg
