Rooting for the winning team to have a bunch of players each pull a Buddy Boheim.
BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 3/7......NEW UPDATE 3/12 1PM PAGE 37
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Rooting for the winning team to have a bunch of players each pull a Buddy Boheim.
NET down to 78 from 76.
NW, of course, drops from 82 to 83 with the neutral win. Consistent (not) with DePaul dropping only one spot after a blowout loss. Yep, the system makes a ton of sense.
NW, of course, drops from 82 to 83 with the neutral win. Consistent (not) with DePaul dropping only one spot after a blowout loss. Yep, the system makes a ton of sense.
It would be ridiculous, but I could see the committee taking all of them if V-Tech wins today.
Vanderbilt(16-15) moves up 8, #79 to #71, by beating that juggernaut Q4 Georgia(6-26) by 35 pts, the first 2 games Vandy by 7 and Vandy by 8, but nothing to see here loss moves Vandy into Q1. Expect a close game Bama vs Vandy
It’s not easy to beat a team 3 times no matter how bad they are. I figured SHU would struggle last night.
Without Aiken , they really struggle to score
Without Aiken , they really struggle to score
The new NET / quad system seems to over weight venue in the math. It’s like it’s quadruple counted. Baked into SOS, part of the NET, then further looped in to the quad sorting algorithm. And then record away from home is also, still a stand alone metric considered too. It didn’t work that way with the old system. They looked at record away from home, yes. They looked at SOS which factors in venue, yes. The RPI calculation factored in SOS again, yes.
But the difference was they didn’t also have a quad system that suddenly said a loss at home to a top 100 team (like Maryland) was worse than losing an AAC tourney game to Tulane. And beating Tulane in this tourney is the same as beating Michigan State at home. Didn’t it used to be that the blind resumes showed top 25, 50 and 100 records? Why did that part change?
But the difference was they didn’t also have a quad system that suddenly said a loss at home to a top 100 team (like Maryland) was worse than losing an AAC tourney game to Tulane. And beating Tulane in this tourney is the same as beating Michigan State at home. Didn’t it used to be that the blind resumes showed top 25, 50 and 100 records? Why did that part change?
Because it was 35 points on a neutral court
Thats how the NET works. Rutgers can beat Iowa and Illinois and the NET would still be in the 60s.
The committee is either going to evaluate Rutgers disregarding the overall NET or they aren't. They like us or they don't. Nothing can change that. NET going up or down 5 spots.
The problem was rpi didnt really differentiate between home wins and road wins. Unfortunately the NET almost does the opposite and very little credit for home wins
I can sort of understand the premise of giving less credit for the home wins. Mid-majors get far less home opportunities against good teams. There are times when the crowd in your favor makes a big difference. Give any decent team enough opportunities in their own building, and they probably win a few big games.
But on the loss side, it’s just plain wrong. A team can have a bad shooting day at home. You shouldn’t be quadruple penalized because you had your fans there. Losing to Maryland isn’t the same as losing to UMass just because it happened at home.
Can it really just come down to losses to Lehigh and DePaul in the first 2 weeks of the season? Insanity.
The NET is weighted way too heavily toward being predictive (ranking teams based on the expected outcome if they played tomorrow) vs. descriptive (ranking teams on who actually won games). If the committee uses it to keep Rutgers out of the tournament I will be mad about it forever.
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It’s UMass and Lafayette. But, yes. If those were wins we’d be locked in to no worse than a 10 seed right now for sure.
The NET is not a bad tool to assess team strength (it's not a great one either) but it's a horrible tool to assess who deserves to be in the tournament.
Its Lafayette and UMass and yes those are 2 horrific losses that are part of the body of work
Lunardi or someone at ESPN finally updated the bracket on the website. Rutgers is ahead of Notre Dame, Creighton, Wyoming, Wake Forest, Xavier, and SMU.
His first four out are Indiana, Dayton, BYU, and Virginia.
His first four out are Indiana, Dayton, BYU, and Virginia.
We already see predictive rankings listed on the team sheet. The ncaa should not be using another as their main method of ranking schools
I still think RU nation should be advocating more for us with Geo’s injury, though. The last play of the PSU game, gives the perfect lead in with Geo contesting that shot to save us. Can’t hurt.
No - it doesn’t excuse the losses (especially Lafayette where we stunk before he was injured), but the theme of Geo’s whole damn legacy has been about saving RU in these types of situations. He wasn’t there to do that down the stretch in either of those games and the committee will have no idea.
No - it doesn’t excuse the losses (especially Lafayette where we stunk before he was injured), but the theme of Geo’s whole damn legacy has been about saving RU in these types of situations. He wasn’t there to do that down the stretch in either of those games and the committee will have no idea.
If VCU gets in over us then I will be mad about that too.
I thought they were headed in the right direction in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons of the NET, why they altered their original concept for the last 2 years was not an improvement or simpler method of ranking teams. It just made teams want to run up the score as much as possible against hapless low major teams of college basketball to build up their NET stock going into their conference schedules.
We had long discussions about this bullshit as we got ready to play Indiana for the third time last year.
There is no evidence to support this assertion in the way that it's being used.
It's technically true, in that even if you have a 75% chance of beating some team you only have a ~42% chance of going 3-0 against them if you play them 3 times. But once you have already won two games, it's not any harder to win the third.
Yes, exactly. Any A-10 bubbler. If that loss can be used for comparative justification for inclusion of any of those teams vs. us, our media outlets failed us.
Ah gotcha. I would think it would be ignored for both which is mostly fine. If it’s between us and a team like VCU I’m more concerned about us having a loss to a bottom feeder from their conference. The caveat of Geo’s absence could become important in that type of context.
Today's rooting guide in what is a very busy day:
First of all, Iowa vs Northwestern tips at ~2pm, already been argued on here as to who we prefer to win.
And not listing any A-10 games because who really knows what's gonna happen there. Just root for Davidson to win the tourney.
Bubble Teams:
11:30am - Indiana vs Michigan -- a loss here kills Indiana -- do we think it kills Michigan as well?
12:00pm - Florida vs Texas A&M
2:30pm - Miami vs BC
5:30pm - Wyoming vs UNLV -- MW tourney is in Vegas, if UNLV wins I could see them stealing a bid but I think for today we root for Wyoming to lose
7:00pm - Oklahoma vs Baylor -- maybe Oklahoma has to win the tourney to get in but I see them on bubble fringe still in brackets
7:00pm - Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame -- rooting for VaTech to lose although not sure how much this one really matters as ND losing would help us as well, I guess root for whoever wins to lose to UNC in the next round
9:30pm - Virginia vs UNC
Realistic Bid Thieves:
12:00pm - Syracuse vs Duke -- Cuse absolutely destroyed FSU yesterday and with the ACC so down they worry me. Hurts them not having Buddy Boeheim today no after his punch to the gut
5:30pm - Oregon vs Colorado. I could see both stealing a bid, Colorado beat Arizona recently and Oregon came close.
7:00pm - St Johns vs Villanova
9:00pm - Utah State vs Colorado State -- this one caught my eye as CSU is only a 2.5 point favorite
9:00pm - Wazzou vs UCLA
11:30pm - Fresno State vs San Diego State
11:30pm - Washington vs USC
First of all, Iowa vs Northwestern tips at ~2pm, already been argued on here as to who we prefer to win.
And not listing any A-10 games because who really knows what's gonna happen there. Just root for Davidson to win the tourney.
Bubble Teams:
11:30am - Indiana vs Michigan -- a loss here kills Indiana -- do we think it kills Michigan as well?
12:00pm - Florida vs Texas A&M
2:30pm - Miami vs BC
5:30pm - Wyoming vs UNLV -- MW tourney is in Vegas, if UNLV wins I could see them stealing a bid but I think for today we root for Wyoming to lose
7:00pm - Oklahoma vs Baylor -- maybe Oklahoma has to win the tourney to get in but I see them on bubble fringe still in brackets
7:00pm - Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame -- rooting for VaTech to lose although not sure how much this one really matters as ND losing would help us as well, I guess root for whoever wins to lose to UNC in the next round
9:30pm - Virginia vs UNC
Realistic Bid Thieves:
12:00pm - Syracuse vs Duke -- Cuse absolutely destroyed FSU yesterday and with the ACC so down they worry me. Hurts them not having Buddy Boeheim today no after his punch to the gut
5:30pm - Oregon vs Colorado. I could see both stealing a bid, Colorado beat Arizona recently and Oregon came close.
7:00pm - St Johns vs Villanova
9:00pm - Utah State vs Colorado State -- this one caught my eye as CSU is only a 2.5 point favorite
9:00pm - Wazzou vs UCLA
11:30pm - Fresno State vs San Diego State
11:30pm - Washington vs USC
Good quote from today's Bracket Watch on The Athletic
Long story short who you beat gets you in, your NET determines your seeding.
Which makes me fear we get in and are in Dayton
We’re in a weird situation with rooting guides because it seems like we’d want different teams to win or lose depending on what we do ourselves tomorrow.
Take Michigan as an example. If we do NOT win our game tomorrow, they would very likely be seeded and get in ahead of us no matter what they do today. They’d have enough good wins, no bad losses and a NET in the 30s. Ours might even be north of 80 in that situation with only 18 wins. So in that instance - a Michigan win pushing the home victory to Q1 would be huge because 7 Q1 wins would be an even bigger differentiator for us to get one of the last slots.
If, however, we win tomorrow, we’d want the complete opposite. A loss today for Michigan with us advancing to the semis probably would push us in front of them - and could be the difference of play in game or not for us.
I don't think we can really say what they are going to do with the NET because this is the first year for the "almost completely Kenpom" version of it. The previous version, despite being a noisy pile of shit, at least had more pure W/L stuff thrown in.
If they want a predictive measure they should just license ****ing Kenpom and get rid of this thing.
I am hopeful they see the same thing everyone else sees this year and don't lean heavily on the thing to do anything besides sort games and measure SOS.
How are these tools validated? Or are these accepted based on the opinions of a small group of experts?
Generally through backtesting / out of sample testing though to be quite honest I am extremely skeptical the NET did any of that as there doesn't seem to be a clear goal behind the model.
Another fun fact: University of Maryland is closer to NYC than Syracuse as well.
Maybe I am being too optimistic, but I think we are in no matter what happens.
He moved us up 5 spots from next to last in to 2nd last 4 byes just behind Michigan and moved Wake and Xavier from last 4 byes to last 4 in. Kept SMU as last team in. That is really good. Time to get rid of the rest of the bubbles today.
