website with some kind of formula that ranks these guys...Palm ranked 100 out of 130 something lol. he is however ranked 11 spots above the well respected "Blacketology" projections lol
besides can't take anybody with that pedo haircut seriously
BACATOLOGY: NCAA ANALYSIS 3/7......NEW UPDATE 3/12 1PM PAGE 37
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
website with some kind of formula that ranks these guys...Palm ranked 100 out of 130 something lol. he is however ranked 11 spots above the well respected "Blacketology" projections lol
besides can't take anybody with that pedo haircut seriously
Hypothetically,
If we beat Iowa by 1, beat Illinois by 1, and lose to Purdue/Wisc or whoever.
Michigan finishes top 30 NET, everyone else stays in the top 30.
Our NET won't change much, the only thing that will keep us out of Dayton will be our 6, 7, 8 or 9 Q1 wins, it seems.
We could have really used a couple more Q3ish 75-160 type games this year for strength of Record and NET.
Wake's Strength of Record #43, Xavier Is #60 after the losses, I don't see how Xavier gets in now.
Consider conferences #11-#32 get 20 of 68 bids
Rule of thought is Top 48 Strength of Record in, unless any of the 20 AQ is included in the top 48.... #49, #50, and so on.
It does worry me that Rutgers is currently at #50.
If we beat Iowa by 1, beat Illinois by 1, and lose to Purdue/Wisc or whoever.
Michigan finishes top 30 NET, everyone else stays in the top 30.
Our NET won't change much, the only thing that will keep us out of Dayton will be our 6, 7, 8 or 9 Q1 wins, it seems.
We could have really used a couple more Q3ish 75-160 type games this year for strength of Record and NET.
Wake's Strength of Record #43, Xavier Is #60 after the losses, I don't see how Xavier gets in now.
Consider conferences #11-#32 get 20 of 68 bids
Rule of thought is Top 48 Strength of Record in, unless any of the 20 AQ is included in the top 48.... #49, #50, and so on.
It does worry me that Rutgers is currently at #50.
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Are you saying that you think we may be in Dayton if we get to B10 Final?? We would be a 10 seed at least, regardless what happens with any other team.
They're not going to blindly do seedings based on NET. If they did, Houston would have been a 2 seed during the top 16 reveal. Instead, they didn't even make the cut.
The 2 Q1 wins will raise our strength of Record higher, and even if Michigan gets above 30 it is a slight boost from Q2 to Q1, all the other metrics are going to keep our seeding relatively low.
Not wrong, so far so good but still quite early. Let’s see how Florida, A&M, Wyoming, UVA, Va Tech, Indiana, VCU, SMU, etc. finish
3/10 update
1 SEEDS
2 SEEDS
3 SEEDS
4 SEEDS
5 SEEDS
6 SEEDS
7 SEEDS
8 SEEDS
9 SEEDS
10 SEEDS
11 SEEDS
16 SEEDS
FINAL 4 BYES
MEMPHIS
NOTRE DAME
RUTGERS
MIAMI (last bye)
LAST 4 IN
VCU
INDIANA
XAVIER
WYOMING
LAST 4 OUT
BYU
SMU
WAKE FOREST
OKLAHOMA
NEXT FOUR OUT
FLORIDA
VIRGINIA TECH
VIRGINIA
DAYTON
ON THE FRINGES
TEXAS A&M
OREGON
SAINT BONAVENTURE
COLORADO
So some movements after yesterday's wild day. Wake Forest moves out of the field for now replaced by VCU. Xavier drops but only one spot on the last 4 in line. Virginia Tech takes a a big leap forward on the next four out list. Rutgers moves up a placement on the last byes grouping. Reason being with Wake no projected out of the field, Miami lost two win vs the field and now drops to just 3-2 in that grouping, Adjusted St Mary's and Ohio State along the 6 line to avoid a RU/OSU matchup in first round. Rutgers is projected to play St Mary's at the moment.
Big time bubble games today....
Indiana vs Michigan...enormous bubble game for both schools. Indiana is almost assuredly out with a loss. A win does not lock them in as they may need another one. Michigan losing this game would end their season at 17-14 and thus they become vulnerable just 3 games over .500.
Florida vs Texas A&M....bubble elimination game. Loser totally out. Winner still a shot but probably need a trip to SEC finals
Boston College vs Miami....huge game for Miami. Hurricanes cannot afford a 4th Q3 loss. This is the type of loss that could bounce them out. Their profile got dinged a bit because Wake lost.
Marquette vs Creighton....Bluejays are a lock but even while seeded as a 9, their sagging NET of 66 could be used in seeding so a loss here and movement of those they are ahead could move them closer to the first four games
Oregon vs Colorado....bid stealer elimination game. Neither has at large chances and both would need to win the Pac 12 and steal a bid
UNLV vs Wyoming.....another big game, do Cowboys lock in with a win? not necessarily but if they lose it they easily could find themselves out of the field
Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame....Muddled ACC bubble picture, Va Tech buoyed by a great net is inching closer but needs to keep winning to get in, a win here is probably not enough Irish have some cushion but a loss here could put them in first four and depending on other results there is a small chance they get bounced all together.
Oklahoma vs Baylor....Sooners become a serious threat with a win here. A loss and they are clearly done.
Virginia vs North Carolina.....Virginia longshot hopes rest with making ACC finals so eliminated with a loss. Tar Heels are locked in
1 SEEDS
- GONZAGA*
- ARIZONA*
- BAYLOR
- KANSAS*
2 SEEDS
- AUBURN*
- KENTUCKY
- DUKE*
- VILLANOVA
3 SEEDS
- PURDUE
- TENNESSEE
- WISCONSIN
- TEXAS TECH
4 SEEDS
- ILLINOIS*
- PROVIDENCE*
- UCLA
- CONNECTICUT
5 SEEDS
- ARKANSAS
- TEXAS
- LSU
- ALABAMA
6 SEEDS
- HOUSTON*
- IOWA
- SAINT MARY'S
- OHIO STATE
7 SEEDS
- COLORADO STATE
- MICHIGAN STATE
- MARQUETTE
- MURRAY STATE
8 SEEDS
- BOISE STATE
- SETON HALL
- USC
- IOWA STATE
9 SEEDS
- TCU
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- NORTH CAROLINA
- CREIGHTON
10 SEEDS
- LOYOLA CHICAGO*
- SAN FRANCISCO
- DAVIDSON*
- MICHIGAN
11 SEEDS
- MEMPHIS
- NOTRE DAME
- RUTGERS
- MIAMI
- NORTH TEXAS*
- SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
- WYOMING/VCU
- XAVIER/INDIANA
- CHATTANOOGA*
- TOLEDO*
- NEW MEXICO STATE*
- VERMONT"
- PRINCETON*
- MONTANA STATE*
- COLGATE*
- LONG BEACH STATE*
- SAINT PETER'S*
- LONGWOOD*
- DELAWARE*
- WRIGHT STATE*
16 SEEDS
- JACKSONVILLE STATE*
- GEORGIA STATE*
- BRYANT*/ALCORN STATE*
- NORFOLK STATE*/NICHOLLS STATE*
FINAL 4 BYES
MEMPHIS
NOTRE DAME
RUTGERS
MIAMI (last bye)
LAST 4 IN
VCU
INDIANA
XAVIER
WYOMING
LAST 4 OUT
BYU
SMU
WAKE FOREST
OKLAHOMA
NEXT FOUR OUT
FLORIDA
VIRGINIA TECH
VIRGINIA
DAYTON
ON THE FRINGES
TEXAS A&M
OREGON
SAINT BONAVENTURE
COLORADO
So some movements after yesterday's wild day. Wake Forest moves out of the field for now replaced by VCU. Xavier drops but only one spot on the last 4 in line. Virginia Tech takes a a big leap forward on the next four out list. Rutgers moves up a placement on the last byes grouping. Reason being with Wake no projected out of the field, Miami lost two win vs the field and now drops to just 3-2 in that grouping, Adjusted St Mary's and Ohio State along the 6 line to avoid a RU/OSU matchup in first round. Rutgers is projected to play St Mary's at the moment.
Big time bubble games today....
Indiana vs Michigan...enormous bubble game for both schools. Indiana is almost assuredly out with a loss. A win does not lock them in as they may need another one. Michigan losing this game would end their season at 17-14 and thus they become vulnerable just 3 games over .500.
Florida vs Texas A&M....bubble elimination game. Loser totally out. Winner still a shot but probably need a trip to SEC finals
Boston College vs Miami....huge game for Miami. Hurricanes cannot afford a 4th Q3 loss. This is the type of loss that could bounce them out. Their profile got dinged a bit because Wake lost.
Marquette vs Creighton....Bluejays are a lock but even while seeded as a 9, their sagging NET of 66 could be used in seeding so a loss here and movement of those they are ahead could move them closer to the first four games
Oregon vs Colorado....bid stealer elimination game. Neither has at large chances and both would need to win the Pac 12 and steal a bid
UNLV vs Wyoming.....another big game, do Cowboys lock in with a win? not necessarily but if they lose it they easily could find themselves out of the field
Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame....Muddled ACC bubble picture, Va Tech buoyed by a great net is inching closer but needs to keep winning to get in, a win here is probably not enough Irish have some cushion but a loss here could put them in first four and depending on other results there is a small chance they get bounced all together.
Oklahoma vs Baylor....Sooners become a serious threat with a win here. A loss and they are clearly done.
Virginia vs North Carolina.....Virginia longshot hopes rest with making ACC finals so eliminated with a loss. Tar Heels are locked in
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I hope your right BAC but I just don’t know. I feel like Wake may still be in with that gaudy win count and good computer numbers.
The quads are an even bigger problem than the NET itself. Beating Kansas should not be formally bucketed the same as beating Belmont or Towson.
Hmmm...so do we root for Indiana over mish to bump mish out, then root for IU to get smoked in next game (getting them both out)...
...or do we just root for mish to put a final nail in IUs coffin?
@bac2therac
...or do we just root for mish to put a final nail in IUs coffin?
@bac2therac
non conference schedule strength: 341
1-4 Quad 1, 2-5 vs schools in the field
Wake is not completely out, until the dust totally settles and everything is scrubbed and rescrubbed...alot of games to be played but its never good to be in their position losing their opening round tourney game to a dreg
while a Michigan loss will hurt and that 17-14 mark becomes problematic, it also keeps Indianas hopes alive so its probably best to just eliminate Indiana from contention and a loss pretty much ends for them
And a Michigan win also can improve their NET, which could bring them back into Q1 for us. Torpedo Indiana while giving slight cosmetic improvement to our resume? I'll take it.
they do seperate the Q1s and 2s into levels
I think people are too caught up in the Quad numbers....the committee knows exactly who you beat and who is good, its not a blind number
maybe just for a day until their next loss but there are 3 MWC schools directly ahead of Michigan so they also will be knocking each off
FWIW, I would prefer more BIG teams in the field then less. I think from that perspective, an INDY win coupled with an RU win over Iowa (or over NW and ILL) probably gets all 3 in but with RU seeded better than them. Am I right?
Where do they split the Q1s into 2 groups and what’s the breakdown? I’ve never seen that.
its on the team sheets...do you ever use warren nolan, its almost exactly what the committee sees
its going to be tough to get all 9 in. Michigan could really be the odd man out if Indiana beat Illinois and RU beats Iowa.
Palm should’ve just kept RU off his bracket and just penciled in “winner of Florida / A&M game”. He currently has us holding the spot for the winner of that game today lol.
Where on the team sheet? That’s a good presentation, but I only see things like, home, away, non-conference, etc.
I get that the Gators and Aggies are in contention but they need alot more. Beating each other does not do that and Palm knows it. The winner of that game plays Auburn so they will bounce right back out with the loss. He is using almost prediction like stuff, I dont like bracketologists setting games up, its not either or its predict the field based on if the selection was at that moment.
You and Lunardi seem mostly in line except for VCU and Creighton. Some other slight differences (IU/Wake) but otherwise mostly in line
Well maybe thats good. It's really hard to root for Indy with those ridiculous sweatpants
we are less metric based then most I didnt want to put VCU in the field but had to put someone in and do feel the A10 will get 2
Lunardi and Decourcy both have us as 11
I seem to think we are a lock and 50/50 if we lose tomorrow as 11 or 12 seed
Win 1 and a 10 seed
Thoughts ?
