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BAC's NCAA BUBBLE ANALYSIS AND FIRST PECKING ORDER: 2/27/18

big day and alot of surprises

Missouri punches their ticket with a win over Arkansas...that narrows the available bids down to just 11.

Mississippi State is basically done now after losing to LSU. To even get back into consideration they would have reach the SEC finals

Alabama fell at Texas A&M in a game they just had to have. Despite some great wins in Q1 and strong SOS, Bama is now 17-14, another loss in the SEC tourney gives them 15. Not sure any team is going to the NCAA tourney with that many losses but they need to win as many as they can.

Penn State loses to Purdue and with only 3 Q1 wins, all against Ohio State and a sketchy overall rpi and non conference SOS, PSU looks like they are on the outside looking in and its up to the committee to show mercy, same situation as Nebraska, just not enough quality wins and poor SOS. They both can hope for the human element to come into play. What is bad for them is there season is over, no more games to play while the rest of the bubble has a chance to make their case or perhaps some schools stealing bids.

NC State tops Louisville and the Cards really have a paltry resume, given Syracuse's big quality win over Clemson, going to have flip these schools now. Cuse in, Louisville out, but that could change with the ACC tourney coming up

Notre Dame officially done after losing at Virginia.

Arizona State loses again..this time to Stanford. Just 8-10 in a down Pac 12, how can they committee reward that. Well they beat Kansas and Xavier but is that enough. With a few Pac 12 bubbles around, nothing is certain.

Oregon longshot hopes still alive as they gave Washington a damaging blow to their bid. Both teams will have to reach the Pac 12 finals to gain serious consideration

Utah remains in contention by taking down Colorado. Utes will need a run to the Pac 12 finals in all liklihood.

Good thing I kept Oklahoma State on the list, well they went out and beat Kansas for the second time this year. They have 5 Q1 wins..alot of losses and poor sos hurts. they will need a big run in the Big 12 tourney and that would include beating Kansas a third time

Kansas State knocked off Baylor in a bubble battle. It does not lock KSU in yet but it moves the up pecking order in pretty good shape. Baylor still in remaining in the last 4 in but its a shaky place to be and will need to make sure they get a win in the Big 12 tourney

Texas got a huge quality win over WVU in OT...not going to put them to lock status but they appear to fairly safe

Providence got that needed win over St Johns to stay on the good side of the bubble. Friars would appear to have enough wiggle room but it would not hurt to win a BE tourney game

Marquette stays alive by knocking off Creighton. Its still a longshot for them but if they can reach the BE finals they might have a shot.

Boise State averted an upset to Wyoming to move to 23-7. Need to reach that MWC finals vs Nevada and lets see if the committee wants to reward them, they can win it all and Nevada will steal a bid from the bubble.

Middle Tennessee State is the projected tourney winner from CUSA but that was a costly regular season loss to Marshall today that could impact their chances of an at large if they do not win that tourney


a couple of other games...USC-UCLA later tonight...St Bonnies on top of St Louis late in the 2nd half....and SHU up on Butler in the 2nd half.
 
Hard for me to see the Big 10 with just 4 in----deserved or not so I'm predicting either PSU or Nebraska in Dayton.
 
Hard for me to see the Big 10 with just 4 in----deserved or not so I'm predicting either PSU or Nebraska in Dayton.

while it might seem hard to envision only 4, a long look at the team sheet for either Nebraska or Penn State is also hard to see either one of them ultimately getting in.

Penn State:
3-8 vs Quadrant 1
2-2 vs Quadrant 2
3 losses vs Quadrant 3 and 4
avg rank 65 in results metrics (RPI, etc)
avg rank 33 in predictive metrics (KenPom, etc)

Nebraska:
1-7 vs Quadrant 1
3-2 vs Quadrant 2
1 loss vs Quadrant 3 and 4
avg rank 53 in results metrics
avg rank 58 in predictive metrics


Those are kinda ugly resumes. PSU has the edge in Quadrant 1 wins, but offsets it with 3 bad losses. Nebraska only 1 bad loss and only 1 good win which is some kinda blah overall.

Unfortunately for either team, nobody is going to care about what conference they are in or in Nebraska's case what their conference record was. They will put roughly those 5 things (and a few similar others) up to look at next to other bubble teams who will be better.
 
I think to be fair, PSU played some hot teams down the stretch in Purdue, OSU and at Nebraska...also white hot Michigan as well....i can see a Boise State Penn State play in game, which i think would be a very good match up and fair to both big conference and not exactly small conference, but 2 teams that played well over 3-4 months.
 
big day and alot of surprises

Missouri punches their ticket with a win over Arkansas...that narrows the available bids down to just 11.

Mississippi State is basically done now after losing to LSU. To even get back into consideration they would have reach the SEC finals

Alabama fell at Texas A&M in a game they just had to have. Despite some great wins in Q1 and strong SOS, Bama is now 17-14, another loss in the SEC tourney gives them 15. Not sure any team is going to the NCAA tourney with that many losses but they need to win as many as they can.

Penn State loses to Purdue and with only 3 Q1 wins, all against Ohio State and a sketchy overall rpi and non conference SOS, PSU looks like they are on the outside looking in and its up to the committee to show mercy, same situation as Nebraska, just not enough quality wins and poor SOS. They both can hope for the human element to come into play. What is bad for them is there season is over, no more games to play while the rest of the bubble has a chance to make their case or perhaps some schools stealing bids.

NC State tops Louisville and the Cards really have a paltry resume, given Syracuse's big quality win over Clemson, going to have flip these schools now. Cuse in, Louisville out, but that could change with the ACC tourney coming up

Notre Dame officially done after losing at Virginia.

Arizona State loses again..this time to Stanford. Just 8-10 in a down Pac 12, how can they committee reward that. Well they beat Kansas and Xavier but is that enough. With a few Pac 12 bubbles around, nothing is certain.

Oregon longshot hopes still alive as they gave Washington a damaging blow to their bid. Both teams will have to reach the Pac 12 finals to gain serious consideration

Utah remains in contention by taking down Colorado. Utes will need a run to the Pac 12 finals in all liklihood.

Good thing I kept Oklahoma State on the list, well they went out and beat Kansas for the second time this year. They have 5 Q1 wins..alot of losses and poor sos hurts. they will need a big run in the Big 12 tourney and that would include beating Kansas a third time

Kansas State knocked off Baylor in a bubble battle. It does not lock KSU in yet but it moves the up pecking order in pretty good shape. Baylor still in remaining in the last 4 in but its a shaky place to be and will need to make sure they get a win in the Big 12 tourney

Texas got a huge quality win over WVU in OT...not going to put them to lock status but they appear to fairly safe

Providence got that needed win over St Johns to stay on the good side of the bubble. Friars would appear to have enough wiggle room but it would not hurt to win a BE tourney game

Marquette stays alive by knocking off Creighton. Its still a longshot for them but if they can reach the BE finals they might have a shot.

Boise State averted an upset to Wyoming to move to 23-7. Need to reach that MWC finals vs Nevada and lets see if the committee wants to reward them, they can win it all and Nevada will steal a bid from the bubble.

Middle Tennessee State is the projected tourney winner from CUSA but that was a costly regular season loss to Marshall today that could impact their chances of an at large if they do not win that tourney


a couple of other games...USC-UCLA later tonight...St Bonnies on top of St Louis late in the 2nd half....and SHU up on Butler in the 2nd half.
Good recap Bac. Do you let Vermont in (49 RPI) if they lose in their conference tournament??
 
recapping the late scores from last night


St Bonnies finsished the needed win at St Louise

Butler fell a SHU to remain on the bubble but are above the last 8 in line

UCLA beats USC in huge bubble matchup. UCLA still on last 4 in line but improved their positioning, meanwhile USC sits on the last in/last out line

full update coming sometime tomorrow night
 
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