BAC's NCAA BUBBLE ANALYSIS AND FIRST PECKING ORDER: 2/27/18
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Not sure with nebulous rating systems when tourney is turning into the whole SEC and the whole Big 12. Perhaps not really all that good when still mentioning Texas and Oklahoma after a dozen losses? Why not Temple then?
I like rewarding excellence and rewarding a 13-5 Nebraska team or a St. Bonnie team that might win 25. More interesting than a ten loss Kansas State team or Alabama losing five in a row.
So you'd like worse teams that were excellent against shitty competition? Why not just take the top 2 finishers from each conference tournament and not just the champs? Then you'd get lots of small schools that had excellent seasons.
you are advocating putting a power 5 school like Nebraska in yet you are arguing for more small conference schools..that makes no sense at all
Of course Western Kentucky moves up with a win . Their RPI will be in the mid 40's. Back 2 the RAC your missing the boat with this team.
5 teams from B1G seems fine. Every team from the SEC and especially the B12 is a bit much. Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, Missouri, when do dozen loss teams become too much? Zzzzz
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every team from the SEC???? Realistically the most they will get is 7 or 8 out of 14 teams. Big 12 is totally loaded this year and might get 6 or 7 teams.
What does 12 losses have to do with anything if you play nearly 20 games against top 50 competition? Do you are least admit that teams played drastically varying schedules? Wins and losses don't tell you how good a team is. If you want to reward bad teams that play easy schedules and rack up a pretty record, well that's a kind of weird thing to want to reward.
Most college basketball fans would like to see the best teams play better schedules. Those are more fun games for people to watch and care about. That necessarily leads to losses for teams that would otherwise rack up wins against patsies.
the NCAA selection committee is clear....you play a strong SOS and you pick up quality road wins....Nebraska did neither and that is why despite 13-5 in the Big 10 they are sweating things out
What????? That one point loss to Kansas? Creighton? St. John’s? St. John’s beat Butler tonight. No shame at all.
Beat BC convincingly!
Cuse lost to BC convincingly! Bye bye Cuse.
FSU loses handily to Clemson. No lock at all.
Nebraska should be in! St Bonnie’s too!!
LSU lost again. Can we finally put them to rest? No they are in the SEC and have a dozen losses so they must be deserving!! Ignore that 40 point loss to Notre Dame ... Nothing to see here!
Beat BC convincingly!
Cuse lost to BC convincingly! Bye bye Cuse.
FSU loses handily to Clemson. No lock at all.
Nebraska should be in! St Bonnie’s too!!
LSU lost again. Can we finally put them to rest? No they are in the SEC and have a dozen losses so they must be deserving!! Ignore that 40 point loss to Notre Dame ... Nothing to see here!
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FSU is a lock..they have 6 Q1 wins...beat UNC, Clemson, Miami. Syracuse, won at Florida, won at Va Tech, won at Louisville
tonights recap...2 more schools punched their ticket and two others fell of the list...that narrows things down to 12 open bids and 24 schools in contention
Houston won at SMU and they just punched their ticket to the dance.
Texas A&M nips Georgia on the road and that is good enough to move them to lock status...meanwhile Georgia is officially off the bubble
LSU also officially fell off the bubble with a loss to South Carolina
Providence loses at Xavier, no harm there but they are still in that last 8 in line so it would behoove them to beat St John's this weekend
Butler blew a lead and then loss at St John's . I would not say they have to worry due to the softness around that last 4 in/last 4 out line but there next game is at SHU...what if they lose that and their first round BE game?
Syracuse suffered an awful loss to BC and they could not afford that. Orange were already on the last 4 out line and now are facing a must win vs Clemson to right the ship and they will still need another quality win in the SACC tourney
Notre Dame kept their hopes alive but really gained now ground by dismantling a horrible Pitt team.
Houston won at SMU and they just punched their ticket to the dance.
Texas A&M nips Georgia on the road and that is good enough to move them to lock status...meanwhile Georgia is officially off the bubble
LSU also officially fell off the bubble with a loss to South Carolina
Providence loses at Xavier, no harm there but they are still in that last 8 in line so it would behoove them to beat St John's this weekend
Butler blew a lead and then loss at St John's . I would not say they have to worry due to the softness around that last 4 in/last 4 out line but there next game is at SHU...what if they lose that and their first round BE game?
Syracuse suffered an awful loss to BC and they could not afford that. Orange were already on the last 4 out line and now are facing a must win vs Clemson to right the ship and they will still need another quality win in the SACC tourney
Notre Dame kept their hopes alive but really gained now ground by dismantling a horrible Pitt team.
LAST 4 IN: LOUISVILLE, KANSAS STATE, UCLA, BAYLOR
LAST 4 OUT: WASHINGTON, NEBRASKA, TEXAS, SYRACUSE
LAST 4 OUT: WASHINGTON, NEBRASKA, TEXAS, SYRACUSE
See the problem is you think 13-5 in the Big Ten is impressive when Nebraska only played 4 total conference games against teams that will make the tourney. They are 12-2 against conference opponents that aren't even on the bubble at this point.
Not all conference schedules are created equal with an unbalanced schedule. And it's not just humans that think Nebraska hasn't been that impressive, the computers are equally unimpressed.
recapping last night
Louisville had Virginia on the ropes but beat at the buzzer. Louisville would have locked in what that win but now sit and wait around the last 2 in/last 2 out line. May have to beat NC State to stay there
Penn State beat Northwestern to keep their hopes alive, now they must take Ohio State down for a third time to move into better striking range for a NCAA bid
Arizona State took care of Cal...that should be enough to put them in but im going to leave them just out of lock status for now, win over Stanford would change that.
Washington survived upset scare of Oregon State. Still think the Huskies are the last team out on the line heading into Pac 12 tourney play.
Oregon was basically eliminated from NCAA at large contention with their loss at Washington State...
Updated Pecking Order
IN
1. Arizona State
2. Missouri
3. Butler
4. Oklahoma
5. St Bonaventure
6. Providence
7. USC
8. Alabama
9. Baylor
10. UCLA
11. Kansas State
12. Louisville
OUT
13. Washington
14. Nebraska
15. Texas
16. Syracuse
17. Penn State
18. Utah
19. Boise State
20. Mississippi State
21. Marquette
22. Notre Dame
23. Oklahoma State
24. Oregon
Louisville had Virginia on the ropes but beat at the buzzer. Louisville would have locked in what that win but now sit and wait around the last 2 in/last 2 out line. May have to beat NC State to stay there
Penn State beat Northwestern to keep their hopes alive, now they must take Ohio State down for a third time to move into better striking range for a NCAA bid
Arizona State took care of Cal...that should be enough to put them in but im going to leave them just out of lock status for now, win over Stanford would change that.
Washington survived upset scare of Oregon State. Still think the Huskies are the last team out on the line heading into Pac 12 tourney play.
Oregon was basically eliminated from NCAA at large contention with their loss at Washington State...
Updated Pecking Order
IN
1. Arizona State
2. Missouri
3. Butler
4. Oklahoma
5. St Bonaventure
6. Providence
7. USC
8. Alabama
9. Baylor
10. UCLA
11. Kansas State
12. Louisville
OUT
13. Washington
14. Nebraska
15. Texas
16. Syracuse
17. Penn State
18. Utah
19. Boise State
20. Mississippi State
21. Marquette
22. Notre Dame
23. Oklahoma State
24. Oregon
USC and UCLA still play each other so while possible both get in sure looks like a knock out game. Just wonder how many more games Kansas State and Oklahoma and Bama and Missouri can lose before it becomes ridiculous. Providence has St. John’s hmmmm. Louisville really doesn’t have much. That loss is torture. Wonder if they recover.
its really soft around the last 4 in line, Louisville is in by the skin of their teeth despite not much on their resume...thats how bad it is...Nebby is in I think if they win today given how trashy those Pac 12 schools are and the bloated toads in the Big 12
recapping
Nebby goes down and is in trouble, having to rely on the committee weighing their overall record and conference mark
Penn State beat Ohio State for a third time..now 3 Q1 wins, it puts them close..beat Purdue and they are in, may or may not need it depend on what happens next week around the country. The eye test says they should go over UCLA or Alabama or Kansas State
Oklahoma tops Iowa State to finish 18-12/8-10, alot of good stuff on the resume despite the horrid finish. I wouldnt say they are a lock but they are close, might want to win one in Big 12 tourney
LAST 4 IN: LOUISVILLE, KANSAS STATE, UCLA, BAYLOR
LAST 4 OUT: PENN STATE, WASHINGTON, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
Nebby goes down and is in trouble, having to rely on the committee weighing their overall record and conference mark
Penn State beat Ohio State for a third time..now 3 Q1 wins, it puts them close..beat Purdue and they are in, may or may not need it depend on what happens next week around the country. The eye test says they should go over UCLA or Alabama or Kansas State
Oklahoma tops Iowa State to finish 18-12/8-10, alot of good stuff on the resume despite the horrid finish. I wouldnt say they are a lock but they are close, might want to win one in Big 12 tourney
LAST 4 IN: LOUISVILLE, KANSAS STATE, UCLA, BAYLOR
LAST 4 OUT: PENN STATE, WASHINGTON, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
I think PSU has the better chance. Three Quad 1 wins over OSU is way more than Nebraska's 1 at home against Michigan. Plus they are way more highly rated by KenPom and Sagarin (which both show up on the team sheet this year). But if I was a Penn State fan, I'd rather not lose to Purdue because they will be sweating big time for the next week. Beat Purdue and they are probably solidly in.
The wait might really help PSU if Watkins can come back. How serious is his injury? I would not want to play them and they can steal a game or two. Does not bode well for Nebraska. Still...I have a huge problem with a 13-5 B1G team that played Kansas, Creighton, St. John’s, OOC not getting in.
Odd how you list losses for them as the highlight of their resume. Noteworthy wins almost nonexistent
Nebraska did not play a power conference schedule. Wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota and Rutgers and Iowa aren’t impressive even if they are in the Big Ten.
Delaney needs to get on the horn with all the Big 10 ADs...you guys better schedule alot tougher next year...
with 20 conference games it means that the Big 10 has to simply schedule stronger...and actually win some games, this year they did neither
with 20 conference games it means that the Big 10 has to simply schedule stronger...and actually win some games, this year they did neither
Wisconsin is never a bad win. Ask MSU. They did beat PSU. Maryland had a down year but still a 19 win team. They beat Michigan. They are still a 22 win team.
Have to laugh looking at teams like Louisville. Who did they beat? Pitt 2x, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech? Siena? St. Francis? Northeast Omaha?
Alabama who has lost six of last eight? Baylor who mid season lost 8 of 10? Missouri who also lost to Illinois? Cuse who is 3-7 the last 10? Oklahoma which almost went the whole month of February without winning a game? Providence 4 of last 6?
Yeah Nebraska should schedule harder. I mean come on lets see them play Kansas, play Creighton at Creighton, lets see them travel across country and play St. Johns at St. Johns... Play an ACC team and win. Travel across country to play UCF away in Orlando... Oh wait they did....
Joke. If any other team played that schedule what would their record be?
Wisconsin rpi this year is 108...its not a good win, its Quad 2 on the road. its an okay win. Its like beating 109 Ole Miss who is 12-18..is that a good win
Penn State has a better resume than Nebraska, if anyone is arguing a bid, its them. They split games with Nebraska as well.
Nebraska SOS in non conference was 265 despite those other games...part of the problem was not just them,,,,their SOS effected by every other Big 10 school playing a poor non conference schedule
all those schools you mention have 4-6 Q1 wins and some Q2 wins...its not how you finish..its body of work...OOC scheduling and OOC wins are huge factors for selection committee
it does not matter if they lost to Kansas by 1 , if bubble schools from the Big 12 and bubble schools like Washington did beat Kansas
Penn State has a better resume than Nebraska, if anyone is arguing a bid, its them. They split games with Nebraska as well.
Nebraska SOS in non conference was 265 despite those other games...part of the problem was not just them,,,,their SOS effected by every other Big 10 school playing a poor non conference schedule
all those schools you mention have 4-6 Q1 wins and some Q2 wins...its not how you finish..its body of work...OOC scheduling and OOC wins are huge factors for selection committee
it does not matter if they lost to Kansas by 1 , if bubble schools from the Big 12 and bubble schools like Washington did beat Kansas
Yet Nebraska blew out PSU recently. Sometimes eye tests are correct. I think both should get in.
Quadrants are silly as still based upon silly RPI. And awful to mid majors as you simply don't get as many higher quadrant opportunities. See St. Bonaventure.
Just realized Rhode lost again. Davidson could beat them and the Bonnies... (If they get past Richmond) and steal a bid. What's going on with Rhode?
Davidson at 18-11 deserves to be in conversation. Impressive schedule. Their losses: @ Nevada, North Carolina, UVA, New Mexico State... Impressive.
Another mid major team like ODU, WKU, that should at least be in the conversation.
Davidson at 18-11 deserves to be in conversation. Impressive schedule. Their losses: @ Nevada, North Carolina, UVA, New Mexico State... Impressive.
Another mid major team like ODU, WKU, that should at least be in the conversation.
The A10 is not getting 3 bids. If Davidson beats St Bonnies and then beats URI in the A10 finals..the Bonnies are out. With URI dropping back to back games and then possibly another one in the A10 tourney, the leagues profile which wasnt strong to begin with has taken a hit as its top team continues to fall from grace.
Davidson has zero chance at an large bid.
Davidson has zero chance at an large bid.
The 10 NCAA teams in the last decade with a resume most similar to Nebraska only got 1 at large bid between them (though several got auto bids from small conferences). That was Purdue in 2015, but even that Purdue team was better by most measures.
Also, the tournament committee no longer cares about things like record in last 10 games. They take your season long resume on the whole and compare it to everyone else. Nebraska's problem is they have a bunch of terrible wins. They probably finish the season with 1 win vs a team that makes the tourney.
I think just about any team in bubble consideration would've won 20+ games against Nebraska's schedule. I think many would've won more than the 22 Nebraska won. I mean Nebraska's 22 wins are against some really bad teams, not that hard to get that record against that schedule.
You seem to want to suggest that Nebraska is good BECAUSE they went 13-5. I'm saying Nebraska went 13-5 (22-10) not because they are good, but BECAUSE they played an awful schedule. Against a normal schedule they would be like 18-14. Against a tough schedule they'd be about 15-17.
lets not say awful....the majority of the Big 10 isnt awful, still a major conference. I dont see much difference from USC or Alabama winning games against mediocrity in their leagues. You have to give some credit for Nebraska for being 13-5 and 22-9, they pass the eye test...last night was not a good look for them but they have been playing well. NCAA abolished last 10 games as criteria...i dont know why..it should count
