BAC'S NCAA BUBBLE PECKING ORDER: 3/5/19

[TDIrish27]

If Belmont wins the tourney and I think they will I think the country would rather watch Ja Morant in a Play In Game than watching some 18 win Power 5 league squad that they've seen 7-8 times already this year.

That's predicated on Murray State making the Conference Final which is no sure thing .

 

[G- RUnit]

BAC, tremendous job on the bracket as always. Just my 2 cents,, but the 2 smaller conferences that do deserve 2 bids are the OVC, where Belmont, Murray State, Jacksonville State and Austin Peay have had great years and those top 4 are playing in the semifinals today. Belmont should definitely be an at large if they do not win. The other top smaller conference is the Southern conference, where Wofford, UnC Greensboro, East Tennessee State and Furman have had terrific years. Wofford in my opinion is already a lock, but at least 1 of the other 3 deserves some at large consideration considering how weak the bubble is and the number of big conference teams with 14-15 losses.

Here here! Same teams I suggested in my initial response to BAC. A voice of reason! Hey lets put Texas in look at all those great quadrant wins.. never mind they lost as many games as they won... nothing to see here. Just ignore all those losses. Time to reward excellence. Unless Power Conferences are going to do home and home series or away games with mid majors don't use stacked statistics like quadrant wins and conveniently overlooking losses.

Don't love the Big East (Marquette in a free fall) either but one really super impressive stat. Many think the first time ever that every team in a power conference will be over .500. That's hard to ignore. So still think if Creighton gets hot a distinct possibility they could get 5 teams.

West Coast Conference and Gonzaga also a sneaky good conference. Feel for St. Mary's. No respect. That conference can have 6 twenty win teams out of 10. Impressive. Makes you question SOS rankings and appreciate Gonzaga even more.

 

[bac2therac]

Here here! Same teams I suggested in my initial response to BAC. A voice of reason! Hey lets put Texas in look at all those great quadrant wins.. never mind they lost as many games as they won... nothing to see here. Just ignore all those losses. Time to reward excellence. Unless Power Conferences are going to do home and home series or away games with mid majors don't use stacked statistics like quadrant wins and conveniently overlooking losses.

Don't love the Big East (Marquette in a free fall) either but one really super impressive stat. Many think the first time ever that every team in a power conference will be over .500. That's hard to ignore. So still think if Creighton gets hot a distinct possibility they could get 5 teams.

West Coast Conference and Gonzaga also a sneaky good conference. Feel for St. Mary's. No respect. That conference can have 6 twenty win teams out of 10. Impressive. Makes you question SOS rankings and appreciate Gonzaga even more.

The Big East is not getting 5. St Mary's is not good this year...11 losses and a 12 to come..if you do not want Texas in with 15 losses and a slew of quality wins why would you want St Marys with 12 losses and zero quality wins

 

[bac2therac]

BAC, tremendous job on the bracket as always. Just my 2 cents,, but the 2 smaller conferences that do deserve 2 bids are the OVC, where Belmont, Murray State, Jacksonville State and Austin Peay have had great years and those top 4 are playing in the semifinals today. Belmont should definitely be an at large if they do not win. The other top smaller conference is the Southern conference, where Wofford, UnC Greensboro, East Tennessee State and Furman have had terrific years. Wofford in my opinion is already a lock, but at least 1 of the other 3 deserves some at large consideration considering how weak the bubble is and the number of big conference teams with 14-15 losses.

Yes Belmont and Murray State are in contention for an at large. Belmont has the better resume. Murray State less so. I think UNC Greensboro, E Tenn St and Cal Irvine have no shot at an large. Wofford is a lock and if they win their tourney could be as high as a 6 seed but probably 7.

 

[bac2therac]

Gun to my head......
8 dance
6 advance to next round
3 make it Sweet 16
2 make it to final 8
1 make it to Final 4

Also when the teams make it there is almost a reset button. A Minnesota, OSU, or Indiana gets looked at differently. All are dangerous in their own way. They are no longer playing B1G teams.

Iowa may look like hot trash now but its all about the matchups. If they matchup with a school that is like them and doesnt play defense they could do well. Their seeding though is in free fall.....8/9 game looming but they could fall to 11

I see OSU if they hold on and make it, Iowa, Minny all in the 9-11 range

Wisky and Maryland in the 4-5 range

MSU, Mich, Purdue..2s and 3s...question is will 2 of them be able to be 2s..not sure with the MSU issues

Indiana if they get in will be in the play in games

 

[bac2therac]

Updated Pecking Order...now 10 spots left

IN

1. Utah State
2. Texas
3. Seton Hall
4. Arizona State
5. Ohio State
6. Alabama
7. Florida
8. TCU
9. North Carolina State
10. Temple

OUT

11. Indiana
12. Clemson
13. Creighton
14. Furman
15. Murray State
16. Liberty
17. Georgetown
18. St Mary's
19. Dayton
20. Davidson
21. Butler
22. Xavier




LAST 4 IN: FLORIDA, TCU, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, TEMPLE

LAST 4 OUT: INDIANA, CLEMSON, CREIGHTON, FURMAN

 

[King of S]

If Davidson or Dayton go to A-10 finals and lose do they get in??

 

[bac2therac]

most likely not. I put them on the fringes but their resume is pathetic. No quality wins and the A10 is complete garbage this year as it has been for a few years. Why take them when you can take Murray State or Furman

 

[G- RUnit]

The Big East is not getting 5. St Mary's is not good this year...11 losses and a 12 to come..if you do not want Texas in with 15 losses and a slew of quality wins why would you want St Marys with 12 losses and zero quality wins

At some point record and losses have to matter, quadrant wins be damned. BTW 20-11 versus 16-13. Just an example in any event. Texas is not a story. It has been win one and lose one. They are not a team improving and coming on. They have been the epitome of mediocre and not what March Madness is all about.

You have Seton Hall in and St. Johns's so Big East has already 4 and Creighton last few out. They may very well get 5 in.

 

[bac2therac]

neither is St Mary's

 

[TDIrish27]

Nor Alabama

 

[HallX2]

Updated Pecking Order...now 10 spots left

IN

1. Utah State
2. Texas
3. Seton Hall
4. Arizona State
5. Ohio State
6. Alabama
7. Florida
8. TCU
9. North Carolina State
10. Temple

OUT

11. Indiana
12. Clemson
13. Creighton
14. Furman
15. Murray State
16. Liberty
17. Georgetown
18. St Mary's
19. Dayton
20. Davidson
21. Butler
22. Xavier




LAST 4 IN: FLORIDA, TCU, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, TEMPLE

LAST 4 OUT: INDIANA, CLEMSON, CREIGHTON, FURMAN

Bac, I always enjoy your take. I find it to be dispassionate and more prescient than Lunardi. I do hope that next year or the following you get to write RU in to ur predictions.

 

[bac2therac]

Nor Alabama

hopefully they continue to play their way out. They beat Kentucky and that is worth 3 wins. However they have two sneaky good wins...Murray State and Liberty

other big wins were Miss St and Ole Miss and I guess you can count Penn State although not sure The SOS of 22 helps. They need to win at Arkansas. Last year Bama got in at 19-15...this team is nowhere near as good

 

[bac2therac]

Bac, I always enjoy your take. I find it to be dispassionate and more prescient than Lunardi. I do hope that next year or the following you get to write RU in to ur predictions.

thank you. I think next year will be close or at least RU somewhere here on the list.

Not sure if it was you or another Hall fan was really worried a few weeks ago about SHU making it. I stressed that Kentucky and Maryland wins were big time as long as the Pirates would not totally implode. The win over Marquette prevented the implosion. I would not say you are a lock but its very likely. Win the first round BE game and you should be okay. Well if you beat Nova, you are definitely a lock. I really doubt any run by Butler/Creigh/Xav to win it all in the BE tourney.. I am still liking Nova to get it when all is said and done

 

[HallX2]

thank you. I think next year will be close or at least RU somewhere here on the list.

Not sure if it was you or another Hall fan was really worried a few weeks ago about SHU making it. I stressed that Kentucky and Maryland wins were big time as long as the Pirates would not totally implode. The win over Marquette prevented the implosion. I would not say you are a lock but its very likely. Win the first round BE game and you should be okay. Well if you beat Nova, you are definitely a lock. I really doubt any run by Butler/Creigh/Xav to win it all in the BE tourney.. I am still liking Nova to get it when all is said and done

Was probably me. Agree that if they beat Nova they are in. If not I think they need a win in the BET. Not a group that tolerates prosperity all that well. So we shall see. Beating Nova has so many benefits beyond locking up a bid.

 

[bac2therac]

Was probably me. Agree that if they beat Nova they are in. If not I think they need a win in the BET. Not a group that tolerates prosperity all that well. So we shall see. Beating Nova has so many benefits beyond locking up a bid.

What is your seeding looking like in the BE tourney

 

[blockm2]

Could also see where only 1 Big Ten school advances past 16.

Considering only 8 teams advance past the Sweet 16, that is possible for any conference.

 

[bac2therac]

Its all about matchups

 

[goru7]

Yes Belmont and Murray State are in contention for an at large. Belmont has the better resume. Murray State less so. I think UNC Greensboro, E Tenn St and Cal Irvine have no shot at an large. Wofford is a lock and if they win their tourney could be as high as a 6 seed but probably 7.

UC Irvine hit a little patch in late January that they were not winning by much and not dominant on the road. Not anymore .Their last 7-8 games they are dominant home and away. They deserve serious consideration if upset.

 

[G- RUnit]

neither is St Mary's

Soft spot for teams that got hosed, i.e., Murray State, St. Mary's, Monmouth, hell Vermont last year. How did the winner of Vermont's league due in the tourney last year? I forgot.

 

[HallX2]

What is your seeding looking like in the BE tourney

4 or 5 I think.

 

[bac2therac]

yeah looks like a logjam in the standings

 

[King of S]

Ohio St. is 1-7 against Top 25 teams. How do you have them in?

 

[bac2therac]

record vs top 25 teams isnt criteria and do you see the team outside of the bubble. Besides Indiana none of them have wins.

 

[King of S]

record vs top 25 teams isnt criteria and do you see the team outside of the bubble. Besides Indiana none of them have wins.

OSU needs to win one or two more to get in.

 

[TDIrish27]

Considering only 8 teams advance past the Sweet 16, that is possible for any conference.

Yes

Think the ACC gets 2 at least in Final 8------but I'm wrong a lot.

 

[bac2therac]

Seton Hall is officially a lock. That means only 9 spots left

 

[HallX2]

Seton Hall is officially a lock. That means only 9 spots left

Looks like 4 seed in the BET

 

[StevieB160]

Seton Hall is officially a lock. That means only 9 spots left

If Marquette, Villanova, St Johns and Seton Hall are all locks, what if GTown, Creighton, etc. win the Big East Tournament?

"The Big East is not getting 5"

 

[bac2therac]

Good luck

 

[gordel1]

@bac2therac

It seems like alot of bubble teams won today.

ASU just won at Arizona comfortably and gives them 12 wins in the league and 21 wins now overall. Have you moved them to lock status?

 

[StevieB160]

Don't see how St Johns is considered a lock right now. If Creighton wins tonight, they'd get the 7 seed. A loss to the 10 seed would be a bad look to finish off the season.

 

[shields]

Johnnies have 8-10 record in Big East. 7th seed right now. 3 straight losses, they are in trouble.

 

[MKordIUBB]

@bac2therac

It seems like alot of bubble teams won today.

ASU just won at Arizona comfortably and gives them 12 wins in the league and 21 wins now overall. Have you moved them to lock status?

I don’t understand how the selection committee is so inconsistent. How in the world is. ASU in with 12 wins in the worst high major conference of all time while Nebraska didn’t get in last year with 13? At least thee were some respectable teams last year, even if they weren’t that good.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

NC State with an impressive 26-pt win today on road v BC. Assured an invite should (when) they beat Clemson on Wed.

 

[gordel1]

I don’t understand how the selection committee is so inconsistent. How in the world is. ASU in with 12 wins in the worst high major conference of all time while Nebraska didn’t get in last year with 13? At least thee were some respectable teams last year, even if they weren’t that good.

Its because ASU has like 9 or 10 Quad 1/2 wins which is among the most out of the bubble teams. They beat Kansas, Miss St. Utah St, and Washington comprising the conferences best out of conference wins. You could argue ASU has a better resume than Washington but what has kept ASU on the bubble up until this point is home losses vs. Princeton and Washington St.

 

[bac2therac]

NC State with an impressive 26-pt win today on road v BC. Assured an invite should (when) they beat Clemson on Wed.

They will not get in unless they beat Clemson. Its basically a tournament play in game

 

[bac2therac]

I don’t understand how the selection committee is so inconsistent. How in the world is. ASU in with 12 wins in the worst high major conference of all time while Nebraska didn’t get in last year with 13? At least thee were some respectable teams last year, even if they weren’t that good.

Not lock yet but above the last 6 in so fairly good shape

 

[bac2therac]

Don't see how St Johns is considered a lock right now. If Creighton wins tonight, they'd get the 7 seed. A loss to the 10 seed would be a bad look to finish off the season.

I still think they are okay if they win one. I will revisit after sunday with new numbers crunching but they still have better stuff than dregs like Clemson, NCstate, Florida, and Alabama. The Big East is ridiculous right now with how the top schools didnt take care of business and are playing poorly. Really puts things in flux. The issue is St Johns wins are now less impressive by the day because of what a joke the conference as become

 

[G- RUnit]

Another bad loss by bad Texas team which gets blown out. Hopefully puts an end to all silly Texas talk. Losses matter. Sad thing about Texas loss is that it keeps not much better TCU alive. If Texas gets in system is officially broken/joke. Talk about dregs. Big East very much in play with yes five teams. NC State lives to fight another day. Murray State earns a bid as many, thank you very much, correctly and deservingly thought. NCAA and bracketologists can’t keep them out this year. Belmont better get a bid. Clemson alive. UNC now a one seed. Alabama should be by by with yet another bad Texas style loss. Tennessee loses. Florida loses. Who knows what will happen with LSU. A bad day for SEC. MSU appears to be class of B1G when all is said and done. Congrats to SHU. Temple may have clinched birth.