Bac's updated NCAA analysis and pecking order: 3/7
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Monmouth has wins over USC and Notre Dame...those are better wins than St Mary's over Gonzaga 2x a conference school. Monmouth's OOC SOS was better than St Marys although the latter has a better overall SOS. Monmouth lost to Dayton and USC in the top 25 while St Marys only played and lost to Cal. Even though UCLA and Georgetown were having bad years, the former is still ranked in the top 100 and those wins carry more weight than beating UC Irvine and Grand Canyon (the ridiculousness of a school named Grand Canyon who I assume has only been D1 for a couple years being in the top 100 while RU is 282).
I think you argument stands a chance. I just think Monmouth is the sexier candidate and yes those bench players matter. A matchup of St Marys-Syracuse would be a ho hum first four game...but Monmouth-Syracuse brings more juice to the table
I think you argument stands a chance. I just think Monmouth is the sexier candidate and yes those bench players matter. A matchup of St Marys-Syracuse would be a ho hum first four game...but Monmouth-Syracuse brings more juice to the table
Here is a big key.....St Mary's 9-4 road/neutral....Monmouth 17-6 road/neutral...committee is a fan of the playing alot of road games when you are a midmajor.
Dont disagree but sometimes the eye test says differently. St. Marys looked awfully good and Gonzaga almost played a perfect game. Hate both these teams as favorites, love them as underdogs.
Grand Canyon coached by Dan Majerle. Pretty cool story. And Exhibit #1 That you do not need 7 years to build a basketball program.
Grand Canyon coached by Dan Majerle. Pretty cool story. And Exhibit #1 That you do not need 7 years to build a basketball program.
problem is all these midmajors arent getting in. Monmouth and Wichita State would seem to be more attractive at this point.
remember we have two extras schools getting bids this year because of SMU and Louisville be ineligible.
Still this is the closest I can remember the cut line being. There is not alot seperating Cincinnati from Wichita State. Thats why the Pitt-Cuse loser, UConn-Cincy loser, A10 tourney jumble is going to be so important.
I think the team most hurt by the arrival of these mid major bubbles is Michigan. While I have them last out, I cannot see them making it unless they beat Indiana in the Big 10 quarters,.
remember we have two extras schools getting bids this year because of SMU and Louisville be ineligible.
Still this is the closest I can remember the cut line being. There is not alot seperating Cincinnati from Wichita State. Thats why the Pitt-Cuse loser, UConn-Cincy loser, A10 tourney jumble is going to be so important.
I think the team most hurt by the arrival of these mid major bubbles is Michigan. While I have them last out, I cannot see them making it unless they beat Indiana in the Big 10 quarters,.
What about the fact that Monmouth's resume was built in November. When you look at the last 5-6 weeks St. Mary's is so much better. Now jones being back from injury could be a factor in any decision.
body of work. The NCAA selection committee does not care how you finish. Non conference scheduling and performance goes a long way when selecting the at large schools. Its not as if Monmouth finished poorly either.
You know what...St. Mary's OOC was 10 home games and 1 measily road game (Cal). They didn't even appear to schedule a tournament.
So only games away from home is Cal, 9 conference road games, and conference tournament.
If I am the committee I can see taking Monmouth over that. If St. Mary's at least made an effort I'd give them the nod.
So only games away from home is Cal, 9 conference road games, and conference tournament.
If I am the committee I can see taking Monmouth over that. If St. Mary's at least made an effort I'd give them the nod.
Monmouth beat two at large schools.....St Mary's beat none...their two wins were over Gonzaga true a NCAA participant but Gonzaga was a bubble school but they were likely not to get in if they didnt win the WCC tourney.
Wichita State also scheduled strong USC, Iowa, Tulsa, SHU, Alabama...all losses and win over Utah but 22 in non conference SOS
i know kenpom is almost irrelevant in this discusstion....Wichita St. is #11!
they are #1 in defense.
Incredible stat in their tournament loss to Northern Iowa their were only 62 possisions in a OT game. that gets adjusted down to 55 in a 40 minute game. Unheard off slow pace. Long possessions from tough D.
we need to get them in over the bench mob posers from Monmouth. make it happen BAC!
they are #1 in defense.
Incredible stat in their tournament loss to Northern Iowa their were only 62 possisions in a OT game. that gets adjusted down to 55 in a 40 minute game. Unheard off slow pace. Long possessions from tough D.
we need to get them in over the bench mob posers from Monmouth. make it happen BAC!
I wouldnt say its irrelevant, I bet you its looked at, ESPN has a BPI too that apparently is considered. I think Ken Pom and BPI take into consideration more stuff like margin of victory and offensive possessions that see things that the antiquated RPI cannot. Lunardi is riding these things right now as he has Wichita State firmly in as a 8 seed
yes....its been proven when teams who finished poorly get in because they did major damage in their early non conference slate...one example was VCU about 6 years ago losing 8 of their last 12 and didnt even win the Colonial yet got a bid with alot of losses because of what they did in November and December against the big boys
If cuse is in I want Ohio state in with 1 more win.
Cuse is cooked. I hate Monmouth but they deserve over cuse
Cuse should be gone. Sorry, but 19-13 is nothing special. Duke win is good, but 6 games over 500 nothing great. Btw, Pitt should be treated like a mid major. Take a look at their OOC schedule. Outside of Purdue, they played Detroit, cornell, duquesne, central ark, eastern washington, MD eastern shore, moorehead state, western carolina, Kent State, and Davidson. That is embarrassing for a power five team. They should not be taken seriously. All at home too
I think Syracuse is out right now, they could move back in but unlikely that happens. Pitt looks more secure now but not a lock. I will elevate Wichita State over Michigan and into the field of 68 for now
LAST 4 IN: WICHITA STATE, MONMOUTH, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, SAINT BONAVENTURE
LAST 4 OUT: SYRACUSE, MICHIGAN, TULSA, SAINT MARY'S
LAST 4 IN: WICHITA STATE, MONMOUTH, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, SAINT BONAVENTURE
LAST 4 OUT: SYRACUSE, MICHIGAN, TULSA, SAINT MARY'S
recapping yesterday...
Pitt moved closer to being in by holding off Cuse, they dont necessarily need to beat UNC but a win locks it up with no sweating. Cuse meanwhile falls out for now but we will revisit them getting in selection sunday
Georgia Tech came from 18 down to beat Clemson and keep their slim hopes alive. Next up is Virginia and they need will need to get the to ACC finals to have a shot
Ditto for Va Tech who ended Florida States hopes for good. VT now gets Miami and then the winner of GT/Va
Texas Tech upset by TCU..yes a bad loss but the resume is solid enough that a loss in a conference tourney will not hurt other than seeding
Oregon State downed ASU to continue to look good as did USC in their win over UCLA. USC gets Utah while OSU gets Cal. Not must wins per se but it would wrap things up for these schools. otherwise they should be good but there is some vulnerability
Holy Cross upset Lehigh to grab the autobid from the Patriot League
Pitt moved closer to being in by holding off Cuse, they dont necessarily need to beat UNC but a win locks it up with no sweating. Cuse meanwhile falls out for now but we will revisit them getting in selection sunday
Georgia Tech came from 18 down to beat Clemson and keep their slim hopes alive. Next up is Virginia and they need will need to get the to ACC finals to have a shot
Ditto for Va Tech who ended Florida States hopes for good. VT now gets Miami and then the winner of GT/Va
Texas Tech upset by TCU..yes a bad loss but the resume is solid enough that a loss in a conference tourney will not hurt other than seeding
Oregon State downed ASU to continue to look good as did USC in their win over UCLA. USC gets Utah while OSU gets Cal. Not must wins per se but it would wrap things up for these schools. otherwise they should be good but there is some vulnerability
Holy Cross upset Lehigh to grab the autobid from the Patriot League
14 bids up for grabs still....here is the pecking order going into Thursday's conference tournament action...
IN
1. South Carolina
2. Providence
3. Oregon State
4. USC
5. Pittsburgh
6. Vanderbilt
7. Butler
8. Cincinnati
9. St Joe's
10. Connecticut
11. St Bonaventure
12. VCU
13. Monmouth
14. Wichita State
OUT
15. Syracuse
16. Michigan
17. Tulsa
18. St Mary's
19. Valparaiso
20. Florida
21. Georgia Tech
22. Houston
23. Ohio State
24. Alabama
25. Virginia Tech
26. Georgia
27. LSU
28. Mississippi
IN
1. South Carolina
2. Providence
3. Oregon State
4. USC
5. Pittsburgh
6. Vanderbilt
7. Butler
8. Cincinnati
9. St Joe's
10. Connecticut
11. St Bonaventure
12. VCU
13. Monmouth
14. Wichita State
OUT
15. Syracuse
16. Michigan
17. Tulsa
18. St Mary's
19. Valparaiso
20. Florida
21. Georgia Tech
22. Houston
23. Ohio State
24. Alabama
25. Virginia Tech
26. Georgia
27. LSU
28. Mississippi
i'd assume if michigan beats NW and losses a close game in the QF their resume goes down a notch? stay the same?
Michigan is going to basically be in that last 4-6 out range if they do that. I just think there are too many St Marys, Monmouths and Valpos hanging around for them to get a bid without beating Indiana.
resume wise it helps SOS and gives them another game against top 50 but just means they go 3-10 which isnt a good look.
Michigan is the one school whose profile has dropped dramatically almost each day. Last week some Michigan fan was arguing with me that they didnt even have to win a conference tourney game to get in let alone beat Wisk or Iowa last week..and at the time I could see his argument even though I didnt agree with it. Alot schools around them started winning, mid major champs didnt win their tourneys and landed on the bubble and all of sudden Michigan plummetted in the pecking order
resume wise it helps SOS and gives them another game against top 50 but just means they go 3-10 which isnt a good look.
Michigan is the one school whose profile has dropped dramatically almost each day. Last week some Michigan fan was arguing with me that they didnt even have to win a conference tourney game to get in let alone beat Wisk or Iowa last week..and at the time I could see his argument even though I didnt agree with it. Alot schools around them started winning, mid major champs didnt win their tourneys and landed on the bubble and all of sudden Michigan plummetted in the pecking order
A10 and AAC are tricky. There are scenerios where they only get 5 bids between the 2....an outside shot at 8.
Dayton is a lock. St Joes will be in if they beat GW. St Bonnies/VCU iffy but an expected semifinal matchup would lock the winner in. I see the A10 getting at least 3
AAC..what to do with Temple if they lose in the semis to UConn/Cincy. They won the regular season over SMU but their profile is rather middling when matched up against the bubble schools. Houston has a bad SOS so they arent getting shafted. Tulsa may have to win the tourney too to get in but has a shot if they make the finals
Dayton is a lock. St Joes will be in if they beat GW. St Bonnies/VCU iffy but an expected semifinal matchup would lock the winner in. I see the A10 getting at least 3
AAC..what to do with Temple if they lose in the semis to UConn/Cincy. They won the regular season over SMU but their profile is rather middling when matched up against the bubble schools. Houston has a bad SOS so they arent getting shafted. Tulsa may have to win the tourney too to get in but has a shot if they make the finals
true..they beat those schools...but they also lost to all of them. So clearly based on what those other schools did they are behind them. ....they lost to USF...its a loss worth 4 bad losses...also lost to Grand Canyon not beat them plus they also lost to Rhode Island. LSU isnt all that much of a quality win anymore. The SOS is 138 but the Non conference SOS is 306 and thats garbage.
There is nothing on that resume that says they need to be included. You cannot play a crappy non conference schedule and then cry about not getting in
There is nothing on that resume that says they need to be included. You cannot play a crappy non conference schedule and then cry about not getting in
recapping yesterday....
Georgia Tech was eliminated from considersation with their loss to Virgina, same goes for Virginia Tech as they fell to Miami
Pitt lost to UNC, prevents them from locking in, but they look fairly good to get in
Providence beat Butler to now move into the field safely..that means just 13 at large spots up for grabs
Butler with the loss remains on the bubble but like Pitt remain in solid shape
Oregon State lost to Cal and USC lost to Utah which means these Pac 12 schools do not lock in yet. Still it would take something unlikely to see them snubbed at this point. May be able to move them in the field as locks depending upon today's results.
Vanderbilt suffered a heartbreaking loss to Tennessee, a loss so damaging is slid the Commodores all the way down the pecking order to the last 4 in line..very precarious position for them right now
Michigan gutted out a win over Northwestern in OT to live another day but must beat Indiana today
Ohio State turned back Penn State and now face a must win vs Ohio State today
Florida stayed alive by beating Arkansas
Georgia took down Missisippi St and Alabama topped Ole Miss to keep their slim hopes alive. Ole Miss is officially done.
GW over St Louis and now gets St Joes in a must win game for them
New Pecking Order as of 3/11 9:00AM * denotes season over
IN
1. South Carolina
2. Oregon State*
3. USC*
4. Pittsburgh*
5. Butler*
6. Cincinnati
7. St Joseph's
8. Connecticut
9. St Bonaventure
10. VCU
11. Monmouth*
12. Vanderbilt*
13. Wichita State*
OUT
14. Syracuse*
15. Michigan
16. Tulsa
17. St Mary's*
18. Valparaiso*
19. Florida
20. Ohio State
21. Houston
22. Alabama
23. Georgia
24. LSU
Georgia Tech was eliminated from considersation with their loss to Virgina, same goes for Virginia Tech as they fell to Miami
Pitt lost to UNC, prevents them from locking in, but they look fairly good to get in
Providence beat Butler to now move into the field safely..that means just 13 at large spots up for grabs
Butler with the loss remains on the bubble but like Pitt remain in solid shape
Oregon State lost to Cal and USC lost to Utah which means these Pac 12 schools do not lock in yet. Still it would take something unlikely to see them snubbed at this point. May be able to move them in the field as locks depending upon today's results.
Vanderbilt suffered a heartbreaking loss to Tennessee, a loss so damaging is slid the Commodores all the way down the pecking order to the last 4 in line..very precarious position for them right now
Michigan gutted out a win over Northwestern in OT to live another day but must beat Indiana today
Ohio State turned back Penn State and now face a must win vs Ohio State today
Florida stayed alive by beating Arkansas
Georgia took down Missisippi St and Alabama topped Ole Miss to keep their slim hopes alive. Ole Miss is officially done.
GW over St Louis and now gets St Joes in a must win game for them
New Pecking Order as of 3/11 9:00AM * denotes season over
IN
1. South Carolina
2. Oregon State*
3. USC*
4. Pittsburgh*
5. Butler*
6. Cincinnati
7. St Joseph's
8. Connecticut
9. St Bonaventure
10. VCU
11. Monmouth*
12. Vanderbilt*
13. Wichita State*
OUT
14. Syracuse*
15. Michigan
16. Tulsa
17. St Mary's*
18. Valparaiso*
19. Florida
20. Ohio State
21. Houston
22. Alabama
23. Georgia
24. LSU
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thanks...would be a jerk or asking too much for in the future put an asterik or a note the teams that are done playing.
Will done per usual. Think one of the trio of VCU, St. Bonnie, St. Joes will be on the outside looking in.
Shame about Vandy. They probably will not get in but if they had could also see them boardline Sweet 16. Them and Georgetown most disappointing teams in country.
Shame about Vandy. They probably will not get in but if they had could also see them boardline Sweet 16. Them and Georgetown most disappointing teams in country.
Does your list include every team that has a chance to make it if they make it to the conference finals?
I can do that...but note that schools that are done can still be effected and float upward and downward by results around them.
Today will pare down the list alot..whether its projecting some of the teams at the top in or slicing the bottom feeders of the bubble.
no I dont have Nebby or Illini on here because they have no at large shot. I only have schools on the list with legit at large potential. Note that I projected Temple as AAC winner so if they lose, they fall somewhere in the pecking order.
Would you say it is safe to predict...
michigan is in with 1 more win
Ohio state needs 2 more wins
michigan is in with 1 more win
Ohio state needs 2 more wins
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