Projected Auto Bids
AMERICA EAST: Stony Brook
AMERICAN: Temple
ACC: North Carolina
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
ATLANTIC TEN: Dayton
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: Weber State
BIG SOUTH: UNC Ashville
BIG 10: Indiana
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG WEST: Hawaii
COLONIAL: UNC Wilmington
CUSA: Alabama-Birmingham
HORIZON: Green Bay
IVY: Yale
MAAC: Iona
MIDAMERICAN: Akron
MEAC: Hampton
MVC: Northern Iowa
MWC: San Diego State
NORTHEAST: Farleigh Dickinson
OHIO VALLEY:Austin Peay
PAC 12: Oregon
PATRIOT: Lehigh
SEC: Texas A&M
SOUTHERN: Chattanooga
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SUN BELT: Arkansas Little Rock
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
WAC: New Mexico State
WCC: Gonzaga
Projected At Large Locks: Miami, Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Xavier, Seton Hall, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado
32 autobids, 22 at large locks = 54 bids accounted for...there are 28 schools competing for 14 bids. Here is the pecking order.....
IN
1. (43) USC 20-11: A split with the Oregon schools last week was probably enough to keep the Trojans safely in the field. The quality wins are there...Arizona, Colorado, Oregon State...and some sneaky good non conference wins against midmajors Yale, Monmouth, and Wichita State. 5-8 vs top 50 and a whopping 11-11 vs top 100 is not going to be denied here. They dont have a single loss outside the rpi top 100. To be on the safe side they should beat UCLA in the opening round of the Pac 12 tourney but it would take something fishy to leave them out at this point.
2. (42) PROVIDENCE 22-9: Friars held sway last week in wins over Creighton and St Johns which is a plus considering the losses suffered around the bubble last week. PC seems to have alleviate the concerns after a February swoon. 5-6 mark vs top 50 and 8-6 vs top 100 are strong here. That win at Villanova overflows with goodness. Arizona was a strong non conference win plus the sweep of Butler looking better each day. Its not the sexiest resume and they still have that bad loss to De Paul. They draw Butler again in the first round of the Big East tourney and of course a win and they are in no question but even with a loss, the weakness of the bubble after the last 4 out, it would be hard to envision a scenerio where the Friars do not make the field.
3. (29) OREGON STATE 17-11: Couldn't get that win over USC last week but got a much needed road win at UCLA to put them in almost lock position. Hard to argue with the sheer rpi strength overall up to 29 and the SOS of 7. While their best OOC win is only bubble Tulsa, the Beavers have conference wins over the top 4 schools in the Pac 12 albeit all at home. Thats the only knock here, no quality road win and just 6-8 road/neutral. They draw Arizona State in the first round of the Pac 12 tourney where a win will enough, a loss would move them close to the last 4 in line but the thinking is they dont seriously have to worry all that much.
4. (47) SOUTH CAROLINA 23-7: Cocks have done more to play themselves out of the field the past few weeks then in. Its a good thing they started off with such a gaudy win total and that the bubble below them seems to be rife with schools taking on bad losses as well. The win at Arkansas stabilized things after the Georgia misstep which followed the losses to Missouri and Mississippi State. SC has only 7 losses but 3 of them are to schools outside the top 100 rpi. The SOS is just 158 and the non conference SOS is an embarrassing 296. To make matters worse the quality of the SEC wins has diminished with the tailspins of a few league schools. Just 2-1 vs rpi top 50...Texas A&M and Vandy, they did amass a 8-4 mark vs top 100 which is solid enough. In league they took down most of the distant SEC bubbles except for Georgia while non conference they beat Tulsa and Hofstra which is sort of middling. The bubble appears very tight in the pecking order after the first 3 schools on this list. Seeded third in the SEC tourney, they draw the winner of Georgia/Mississippi State schools they went 1-3 against. A win and they are in, a loss and with the craziness of the SEC and the tightness of the bubble they would drop possibly perilously down to the last 4 in line going into selection Sunday
5. (48) VANDERBILT 19-12: Commodores 4 game win streak came to end at league leading Texas A&M but they have closed strong the last two weeks to put them in great position heading into the SEC tourney. Seeded 5th they take on the winner of Tennessee/Auburn where a win might be enough to keep them secure but beating LSU in the quarters would remove all doubt. The win over Kentucky to go along with the win over Texas A&M stand out here, so while just 2-8 vs top 50, they are a willing 7-10 vs top 100 albeit the best OOC win was only Stony Brook The SOS is 42, a big advantage compared to fellow bubble SC but SC did beat the Commodores in their only meeting. There are two bad losses here to Mississippi State and Arkansas and the road/neutral mark is a poor 5-10 so there are some warts here if the selection committee chooses to go that way.
6. (44) BUTLER 21-9: Bulldogs got the win they needed over Seton Hall last week to bolster their nitty gritty. Now up to 4-7 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100, they vaulted from last 4 out to beyond the last 4 in line. A season sweep over SHU plus very fine non conference wins over Purdue and bubble Cincy and Temple. Only one plus top 100 rpi loss to Marquette and a non conference SOS of 262 are the negatives here. As noted before though, there is a very tight gradient in these parts. Butler faces Providence in the first round of the Big East tourney and while PC can sustain a loss, Butler needs to win this one to remove doubt. Thinking is Butler may be okay anyhow but a loss would leave them vulnerable to the bubble teams below them making their runs or any midmajors not winning their conference tournaments that the committee might want to take.
7. (39) CINCINNATI 22-9: Getting a win over a top 25 rpi school at this time of year can soar you up the pecking order and thats what happened to Cincy with the win over SMU Sunday. Dropping out of the project field after the loss at Houston, Bearcats got a back against the wall victory to get them to 2-4 vs top 50 and 7-8 vs top 100. Wins at bubbles VCU, GW, a split with Tulsa and Houston, and a sweep at UConn are pretty solid here. The negatives are that 14 of their wins are to plus 150 rpi schools and that they are just 8-9 vs top 150. Big big showdown with UConn in the AAC quarters. The question is do they have to win that game? Well a win and they are in for sure as it would complete a 3 game sweep of the Huskies, a loss? well thats tough. At that point it could be up to what happens around them in the AAC tourney with so many bubble schools. Never want to leave it the hands of the selection committee
8. (53) SYRACUSE 19-12: Orange didnt finish the season well losing 4 of their last 5 and while how you finish isnt a NCAA criteria anymore, the Orange are desperately needing a win right now and face what could be a bubble elimination game vs Pitt in the ACC tourney, a game both sputtering schools need. There still are some good things here....4 top 50 rpi wins vs the likes of at Duke, Texas A&M, one against St Bonaventure that looks better and better and Notre Dame plus another useful non conference win vs bubble UConn. Note they got swept by Pitt. Then you have the bad losses...Clemson, Georgetown and hideous one to St Johns. So how does the committee balance the good with the bad. Advice is to beat Pitt and then they dont have to worry. Losing and they will be at the mercy of the bubble around and the selection committee's sympathies.
9. (55) CONNECTICUT 21-10: Huskies seemed to never get traction in AAC play finishing 11-7 finishing in 6th. Thats the big negative here in a league which will not be sending its top school SMU to the dance. With a bevy of bubble schools you wonder how many the AAC will take. It was not a good look for UConn to be whooped by SMU last week by 26. Its also not a good thing that AAC tourney foe Cincinnati swept the Huskies in regular season play. Given all the it pretty much makes that Cincy game a MUST WIN for them. That win should be enough to get them in but a win over Temple in the semis would make it academic. UConn has no losses outside the top 100 rpi and they do have some good wins here. They did beat SMU, and won at Texas. OOC they took down bubbles Michigan and Ohio State. Still getting swept by Cincy and Temple and losses to Gonzaga and Syracuse hurts here. 2-4 vs top 50 and 7-8 vs top 100 is rather middling for the former beasts from the Big East.
10. (52) PITTSBURGH 19-10: After beating Duke, it looked like the Panthers were about to punch their ticket but road losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have derailed those plans. Pitt in some serious trouble here, so much so that they slipped to the 8th seed in the ACC tourney and now face almost a win in you are in/loss and you are sweating it out right on the bubble game vs Syracuse. While the Panthers have two wins over the Orange, they have very little else in terms of quality. You have the Duke and Notre Dame wins but that makes just 2-6 vs top 50 and the 8-8 mark vs top 100 sees the best non conference win is just Davidson. Then there are two losses outside the top 100 rpi to Clemson and NC State. Beat Syracuse.
11. (31) SAINT JOSEPH'S 24-7: It seemed for weeks that the Hawks were a foregone conclusion to make the dance but the last couple weeks with 3 losses in the last 5 have hurt. Okay the loss at St Bonaventure wasnt all that bad even though it prevented them from locking in but losing at Duquense to close the regular season. Thats the one that hurts. While its their only loss to a sub 100 rpi school, with the crowded A10 bubble situation and with so few quality wins, the Hawks are leaving themselves open to being left out. They have the win over Dayton and at Temple. Princeton a solid win but the Tigers arent the Ivy League champ. The win over Va Tech suddenly looks better. 2-4 vs top 50 and 5-6 vs top 100. How does the committee look at being swept by St Bonnies even though the Hawks have a slightlly better resume. Hawks draw the winner of bubble GW/GMU-STL that could give them another top 100 win before the A10 semis. Thats an advantage the two other A10 bubbles will not have in their quarters game. Will that be enough or do they have to also beat Dayton? Cant answer that yet, so much will have to be factored in with the results of not only the A10 tourney but the SEC, AAC and ACC tourneys as well.
12. (40) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 22-9: A heartbreaking one point loss to Dayton moves the Rams from the projected A10 winner back on to the bubble field and unforunately due to a middling resume, onto the last 4 in line. The Rams just dont have the wins to feel secure. Just 2-4 vs rpi top 50 and 6-7 vs top 100 there only quality wins are two bubbles...St Bonaventure and St Joes both on the bubble themselves. Their best OOC win was Middle Tennessee State. So while they scheduled strong OOC they lost those games to Duke, Wisconsin, Cincy and even to distant bubbles Florida State and Georgia Tech. Digging deeper there are two bad losses to UMass and George Mason. Its an uncomfortably crowded A10 bubble at this point with 3 schools right near the Mendoza line and a 4th a distant ways away. VCU absolutely needs to win their A10 quarters game against Rhody/UMass setting up a bubble brawl possibly with St Bonnies in the semis. Win that and they are in, lose and they sit right on top of the bubble just like the rest of all these bubble schools who lose these win and you're in games.
13. (28) SAINT BONAVENTURE 22-7 : Bonnies have glided into the field on the strength of 10 wins in their last 11 games including completing a season sweep of St Joe's last week. They are up to 3-2 vs top 50 and 6-4 vs top 100 but the only other win of note is Dayton..a very good one, but non conference best is just Ohio. They are going to need more which means they moreso than VCU need to win that bubble matchup game in the semis. Of course they need to beat the Davidson/LasSalle-Duquense winner first to get there. The SOS is just a middling 90 and note they lost to Syracuse. Three plus 100 rpi losses are a killer here..237 La Salle, 144 Duquense and Siena. SBU is a nice story and having a nice run but a closer look sees the true flesh isnt here just yet and they need to stand out from the other A10 bubbles.
14. (70) MICHIGAN 19-11: The Wolverines rpi and nitty gritty continues to plummet as we get close to Selection Sunday. Now down to 70 overall which are very murky numbers when it comes to the committee, they are in desperate need of another quality win. A win over Northwestern in the Big 10 opening round does not look like it will be enough. Michigan will probably need a win over Big 10 champ Indiana to punch their ticket. Can they do it without LeVert? With 4 losses in their last 5 it does not seem likely. Michigan does have a win over Maryland which is big time and a win over Purdue and a win at Texas but its the complete hole of any other win in the top 100 which kill their resume. Hey 3-9 vs top 50 wouldnt be so bad if they werent also just 3-11 vs top 100. In their defense there is no loss outside the top 100. Lets note the loss to bubble UConn and a sketchy non conference SOS of 206. I wouldnt rule out the NCAA giving them a flyer if they beat Northwestern and then lose to Indiana but there is more than enough evidence here for the committee to also justifiably leave them out.
OUT
15. (54) TULSA 20-10: Hurricane find themselves slightly behind the in the AAC bubble race and are almost penalized by their AAC seeding given they will not have a shot at a true quality win until the finals. Seeded third they draw Memphis in the quarters and then get the winner of Houston/UCF-Tulane in the semis. Would have been more beneficial to them to get a Cincy or UConn in the semis. Do they have to win the AAC tourney? Maybe. First they have to get Memphis who recently put a damaging loss on their resume which was their 2nd bad loss along with Oral Roberts. The positives on the resume include the fine 8-8 mark vs top 100 including wins over Wichita State, SMU, Temple, UConn, Houston,Cincinnati. Tulsa also lost to all the AAC bubbles as well as beating them so they dont really gain advantage there. Will really have to earn their way in/
16. (51) WICHITA STATE 23-8: Just what does the committee do with the Wheat Shockers. Probably going to the most talked about and most controverisal bubble school of all this year. Losing to Northern Iowa in the MVC semis was a killer. The resume itself is short on substance. Just 1-3 vs top 50 and 4-7 vs top 100. That one win was a big win over Utah but how much weight is it given, given that the only other top 100 wins consist of a sweep of Evansville and a win over Northern Iowa. On resume alone can the committee justify selecting them based on criteria. They say past history does not matter but we also know that Wichita State at their best would be a legit threat to make the Sweet 16. Note their non conference SOS of 21, the committee will. Games vs Iowa, USC, Seton Hall all losses..a big killer could be that loss to Tulsa if it comes down to it. Their best hope is that those schools below them on this pecking order fail to make their conference tourney runs and the schools above them falter in their first round games. I think its going to be 50/50 for them getting in. They are going to hover right around the last 2 in/last 2 out line when all is said and done.
17. (65) GONZAGA 23-7: Zags at large hopes appear to be shaky at best. With Wichita State joining the bubble fray as a sexier candidate, the Zags might just have to win the WCC tourney. Zags would gain another top 100 rpi win by beating BYU in the semis but at 0-5 vs top 50 and only 3-7 now vs top 100 its very questionable if its enough. Wins over Connecticut and Washington are all they have right now but on the plus side their worst loss is just UCLA with no losses outside the top 100. A loss in the WCC finals a third time to St Marys would seem troubling, what would that say to the committee since St Marys is likely also to fall short as an at large candidate.
18. (53) FLORIDA 18-13: Gators played their way out of the tournament with their late season swoon but can play their way back in perhaps if they can reach the SEC finals and its clearly a wide open SEC tournament. Gators path is this...beat Arkansas, beat top seeded Texas A&M and then beat Vandy/LSU in the semis. That probably would get them in given 7-12 mark vs top 100 is fairly strong around these parts of the bubble plus the SOS of 11. OOC wins over St Joes and WVU but 1-7 vs the top 5 in the SEC. There is only one bad loss to Tennessee but the sheer amount of losses seems too much unless they can get to 21 wins. Just 11-13 right now against rpi 100 is not a good look. Go out and do it.
19. (61) GEORGE WASHINGTON 22-9: Colonials lost ground with the bubble after a costly loss to Davidson. Nothing short of a trip to the A10 finals gets them in now. Need to beat GMU/SLU winner, then pick up a quality win over St Joes and then hopefully notch another against top seeded Dayton. Do that and GW will be in the last 2 in/last out line. Nothing assured but at least a shot. They do have wins over VCU, Virgina and Seton Hall that are solid enough at 3-5 vs top 50 but only 4-6 vs top 100.. Note losses to bubbles Cincy, St Joes, and St Bonnies in their only meetings. Plus its the two really bad losses to St Louis and De Paul which poison their resume.
20. (68) FLORIDA STATE 18-12: Seminoles float back into contention following two quality wins over Notre Dame and Syracuse to close the season. The wins push their marks to 3-6 vs top 50 and 6-11 vs top 100. These include wins over VCU, Virginia and at Florida. Problem has been simply too many league losses. Just 8-10 in the ACC including a bad loss to Clemson, FSU suffered a 5 game February swoon that damaged their hopes. Just a win or two in that stretch could have made them a legit bubble school. Now their chances rest on probably having to make the ACC finals. Seeded 11th, they draw BC in round 1 and would be paired with surprising 6th seed Va Tech in round 2...very doable...up next would be Miami in game 3 and then probably Virginia in game 4. Obviously a tough go in those last 2 but strange things happen in crunch time.
21. (69) GEORGIA TECH 18-13: Yellowjackets closed strong with 5 wins in their last 6 including one this weekend over Pitt to enter the fringe of the bubble. 3-7 vs top 50 but just 5-12 vs top 100. Have the same big wins as FSU...VCU, Virginia, Notre Dame and actually beat FSU head to head. On the one hand they only have one loss outside the top 100 and played a SOS of 25 but like FSU at 8-10 in the ACC just not enough wins. GT's undoing came in the early part of the conference schedule where they started 3-9. Going to need a trip to the ACC finals as well....needing wins over Clemson, Virginia and Miami/VT/FSU to state their case.
22. (85) VIRGINIA TECH 18-13: From nowhere, the Hokies closed with 5 straight ACC wins including a stunner over Miami to land in the bubble field. That put them at 10-8 in the ACC good enough for 6th place actually landing them higher than Pitt/Cuse both projected in the field as of now and higher than FSU/GT who are just above them on this pecking order. They did beat Virginia earlier reflected in the 2-9 mark vs top 50. 5-11 vs top 100 include a split with Pitt and beating FSU/GT in their only meetings. Like those two though the only path to a bid is to either win the ACC tourney or make the final. Seeded 6th they get the winner of FSU/BC then take on Miami in the quarters with a likely matchup vs Virginia in the semis. Can they do this? Well they certainly are hot and they just knocked off Miami so can't say they can't.
23. (76) OHIO STATE 19-12: The win over Iowa put a flicker in their hopes but the loss to Michigan State over the weekend all but ended them. OSU just has no beef on their resume. 2-8 vs top 50 and 3-9 vs top 100. They have the OOC win over Kentucky and did beat fellow bubble Michigan ranked ahead of them here but no other top 100 wins. In fact the Buckeyes are embarrassing 9-12 vs rpi top 150. Losses to Texas Arlington, Memphis, and La Tech also make this thing loos messy. That simply does not cut it come selection sunday. OSU went 1-7 vs the top 5 in the Big 10 so counting on a run to the Big 10 finals while nursing injuries seems unlikely. The road there includes a first round game with Penn State, a quarterfinal matchup with Michigan State, and a semifinal matchup with Maryland/Wisc. That would be earning their way in for sure.
24. (71) ALABAMA 17-13: The Crimson Tide totally played themselves out of the field and into fringe bubble status by losing 4 of their last 5 with two of those losses beyond the top 100 rpi. Their only hope is to either win the SEC tourney or make the finals but with 3 bad losses and the sketchiness of the SEC as a whole, not so sure making the finals does anything more than putting them on the last 4 in line. Its a shame because some nice wins here 3-7 vs top 50 and 6-10 vs top 100....Notre Dame, Wichita State, So Carolina, Texas A&M, Florida. Just too much losing in league at 8-10 and overall...hard for the committee to justify taking a 14 loss sub 500 SEC school over a midmajor. Their path to the SEC finals would take them through Ole Miss, Kentucky, SC/Ga-MSU. Incredible longshot
25. (90) LSU 18-13: Okay the good....4th place SEC at 11-7....3-4 vs top 50 and 7-7 vs top 100, Wins over Vandy, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Florida. Not so bad you say, why are they such a distant bubble...well the bad...6 losses outside the top 100 rpi, 10-13 vs top 150 rpi, non conference SOS of 201, a loss to Houston, best OOC win is 147 Oral Roberts. No school with 6 losses outside of the top 100 rpi has ever been selected as an at large I believe. Just to much overall losing here. Now if they make the SEC finals they will be up in that last 4 out line at least so we will see but not really believing they can make a run there with the way they have been playing. They do get help but getting that first round bye..then get Vandy/Tenn-Aub, and then Texas A&M/Fla-Arky. Let's see it happen.
26. (71) GEORGIA 17-12: With wins at South Carolina and Alabama, I suppose the Bulldogs deserve to at least be given a shot here. Like Bama, they would absolutely need to make the SEC finals but unlike the Tide, the Bulldogs just dont have the quality wins especially non conference. They are going off just a sweep of South Carolina now. A win over Ga Tech doesnt move the needle any. 2-5 vs top and 5-11 vs top 100. They only have one bad loss as oppose to the several by Bama and LSU. Their SEC path is a surging Miss St, South Carolina, and then Kentucky/Ole Miss-Bama. If they get there they will be on the board but like Alabama they still probably fall short.
27. (74) HOUSTON 21-8: Its been a strong finish for the Cougars with 6 wins in the last 7 including picking up quality wins over UConn and Cincy in the past 8 days but they simply are up against it when it comes to be a legit bubble consideration. Somehow the Cougars landed the 2 seed in the AAC tourney but like with Tulsa the bad news is they miss an opportunity to take down a UConn or Cincy which would help their resume more than being in Tulsa's bracket. Even with a trip to the AAC finals it looks like they will fall short. Certainly will be up on the board but the 140 SOS and 306 non conference SOS are deal breakers here. The 6-6 mark vs top 100 including wins over everybody in the AAC including SMU are solid but they also lost to those teams...all with better resumes and all without a loss as bad as the Cougars loss to 230 USF. There is virtually no shot at leapfrogging over those schools.
28. (84) MISSISSPPI 20-11: Up to 20 wins and 10-8 in the SEC, its only fair to put them on this list if the rest of the longshot SEC bubbles appear. Unfortunately due to some rotten nitty gritty, I cannot envision a scenerio where even getting the SEC finals would land the Rebels in the field of 68. While the other SEC bubbles have some stuff to point to with quality wins or SOS, Ole Miss has neither. They are just 1-4 vs top 50 and 3-9 vs top 100. Their best win is Vanderbilt, their best OOC win is outside the top 100 rpi in Louisiana Tech. Their SOS is 168 with a non conference SOS of 303. They have a really bad loss to George Mason. This is simply a school that does not deserve a NCAA bid. Their path in the SEC tourney as the 7 seed is Alabama, Kentucky, SC/Georgia.
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES
PAC 12: 7
BIG 10: 7
ACC: 7
BIG 12: 7
BIG EAST: 5
SEC: 4
A10: 4
AAC: 3
LAST 4 IN: MICHIGAN, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, SAINT BONAVENTURE, ST JOSEPH'S
LAST 4 OUT: TULSA, WICHITA STATE, GONZAGA, FLORIDA
