OK here we go the 2nd week NCAA bubble breakdown with the first pecking order. Comments or jeers always welcomed
Here are the 32 projected automatic bid winners...
AMERICA EAST: Albany
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC 10: Dayton
ACC: Virginia
ATLANTIC SUN: Northern Florida
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: Sacramento State
BIG SOUTH: High Point
BIG 10: Wisconsin
BIG WEST: UC Davis
COLONIAL: Northeastern
CUSA: Louisiana Tech
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Central Michigan
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MVC: Wichita State
MWC: Boise State
NEC: St Francis NY
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PAC 12: Arizona
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: Wofford
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
SUN BELT: Georgia Southern
WCC: Gonzaga
18 schools that I have identified as at large locks....
Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Northern Iowa, Utah, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Butler, St John's, Virginia Commonwealth, San Diego State
that takes care of 50 of the 68 bids. I have identified 30 schools competing for just 18 bids. Here is the bubble pecking order....
IN
1. (42) INDIANA 19-10: Hooisers missed an opportunity to lock in as they suffered a head scratching loss at Northwestern last week continuing their pattern of up down up down up down. While its not the kind of loss a bubble team would want this late, Indy's profile still stands out on this list. They picked up solid non conference wins over SMU, Pitt and Butler. In the Big 10 they knocked off Maryland and bubbles Ohio State and Illinois. 5-6 vs rpi top 50 and 8-9 vs top 100 are very good numbers as is their SOS of 32. Two negatives are the road/neutral mark at 4-8 and getting swept by Purdue. Two more chances for quality wins at home vs Iowa and Michigan State and cannot see them being left out barring losing both of those AND losing their first round Big 10 tourney game.
2. (32) GEORGIA 19-9: Bulldogs completed the season sweep by winning at Ole Miss over the weekend to move to the top of the SEC bubble pecking order. While they do not have any top 25 wins, wins at Texas A&M and Kansas State are pretty good and the 9-7 mark vs rpi top 100 is one of the best you will find on this list. They have a chance to make it academic if they can win at home vs Kentucky but the thinking is they don't need that as long as they don't suffer a bad loss to complete the season at Auburn. Remember they already lost to them and got swept by So Carolina
3. (48) IOWA 19-10: Hawkeyes have taken care of business the last two weeks including a crucial win over Illinois last week. This week offers a trip to Indiana and then a rematch with Northwestern who represent the only bad loss on their resume. Beating Indy locks them in but even a win over Northwestern should be enough. RPI stuff is solid.....SOS of 28, 4-6 vs top 50 and 7-9 vs top 100. The win at North Carolina OOC and the sweep of Ohio State as well as their win over Maryland are resume standouts. Looking good to go.
4. (45) LSU 21-8: Huge huge win over Ole Miss that completed the season sweep of the Rebels moves the Tigers very close. Now 4-4 vs rpi top 50 and an outstanding 11-5 vs top 100, they have wins at WVU and UMass. 3 bad losses to Auburn, Missouri and Mississippi State do drag down their profile a bit. However, this is a team that just passes the eye test. Don't think that 2 point loss to Kentucky isn't paying off even as a loss. Tigers finish off with a home tilt vs Tennessee and a trip to Arkansas. The latter of course would give them another quality win to lock them in but as long as they win the former they should feel good without having to do much in the SEC tourney
5. (31) MICHIGAN STATE 19-10: One of 6 Big 10 bubbles, a closer inspection of the Spartans resume gives me some pause. Its pretty unspectacular for a school used to being a NCAA lock. While the SOS is a strong 23. They have no top 25 victories. Their best OOC win was Loyola of Illinois. They have a bad loss to Texas Southern. They didn't beat the top 2 teams in the league in Wisky and Maryland. The 3-6 mark vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100 are sort of middling. They do have 4 quality league wins...Indiana, at Iowa, Ohio State, and at Ilinois though and that still gives them a cushion over the rest of the weak bubble field. Very important week coming up with games vs Purdue and at Indiana. Cannot afford to lose both or they would need a strong Big 10 tourney run to feel safe.
6. (43) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-11: Hard to figure out what happened here. The Cowboys were rolling along coming off a feather in their cap win over Kansas but now have lost 4 straight including two hideous losses to TCU and Texas Tech. The nitty gritty stuff is all more than willing...SOS of 16...3 top 25 wins, 6-7 vs top 50 and 8-9 vs top 100. Note sweeps over Baylor and Texas and a solid win over Tulsa. Yet their Big 10 mark is just 7-9, they made history last year as the first 8-10 school from the Big 12 to make the NCAA tourney. The slide has to stop and that means avoiding another loss to TCU. They may not have to win at WVU in their last game but if they do not they will be putting themselves at the mercy of the bubble around or will need a complete reversal of fortune in the Big 12 tournament.
7. (41) XAVIER 18-12: Missed a shot at a feather in their cap win but lost at home to Villanova but the loss earlier in the week at St John's was the one that really hurt. It meant two losses to SJU who has now vaulted to lock status and left the Muskateers as the only BE bubble left. Still there are good things to see here led by that SOS of 14. Then you have the 4 top 25 wins...4-6 vs top 50 and 9-8 vs top 100. A sweep over Gtown, sneaky good wins over projected NCAA autobid winners SF Austin and Murray State. The loss total of 12 is a concern here as they cannot afford another loss at Creighton in regular season finale and then another loss in the BE tourney..that would give them 14 and that does stand out no matter how good their wins were. That's when the bad losses to the likes of De Paul, Creighton and Auburn come in.
8. (50) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17-12: Wolfpack keep shooting themselves in the foot. 2 road wins at Louisville and UNC seemingly locked them in given that earlier win over Duke but then they go out and loss badly to weak sister Boston College. Its not fatal though. I mean those aforementioned wins are sparkling and then you throw in that win over MWC leader Boise State, plus solid wins vs Pitt, Richmond and La Tech and the wins are strong enough to get them in. 5-5 vs top 50 and 7-10 vs top 100 and the SOS of 5 keeps giving and giving. Still like with Xavier you worry about the overall loss total. Its 12 now. A trip to Clemson who already beat NCState and Syracuse close the season. These are tough games where any trip ups are going to start taking away from the positives on the resume.
9. (33) OHIO STATE 21-8: Not a good week for them as they dropped road trips to both the Michigan schools. Buckeyes resume is a little lacking so despite their overall rpi number and record they find themselves a little further down on this list then they would like. Just 1-2 vs top 25 (Maryland) and a paltry 2-6 vs top 50. That's very surprising for a Big 10 school. The 7-8 mark vs top 100 is better and is reflected in wins over fellow bubbles Indiana, Illinois and Purdue. Their best OOC win is High Point. In their favor is they havent suffered a bad loss all year long and that counts. The SOS of 88 is sort of meh and the 3-7 road/neutral mark stands out. If this was pre 68 tourney days, they really would need to be worried but the feeling here is if they can get that win at Penn State, it will take some strange circumstances to knock them out. Of course they could also go out and make it academic by knocking off league leading Wisconsin.
10. (47) MISSISSIPPI 19-10: In one week the Rebels went from feeling really peachy to feeling really worried. Losses to SEC bubbles Georgia and LSU not only were missed opportunities to pick up their last quality wins before the SEC tourney, it also meant Ole Miss went 0-4 vs those schools..ouch. The rpi stuff is still solid 3-7 vs top 50 and 7-7 vs top 100 with a SOS of 35. Key quality wins against bubbles Oregon, at Cincy and over Texas A&M with their best win at Arkansas. Note the road/neutral mark strength at 10-4. Bama and a trip to Vandy are next and if they can win both they probably can relax a little but still I would like to see them get another quality win in the SEC tourney just to be sure.
11. (58) PURDUE 19-10: Might be the most talked about bubble team because of the contrasts here on the profile. At 11-5 in the Big 10, they have clearly demonstrated they are a worthy NCAA selection. They swept Indiana, beat Iowa and Ohio State, and avoided bad losses Non conference wins over bubbles BYU and NC State are solid. Those marks of 6-4 vs 8-8 vs top 100 are as about as good as you will find on the bubble. So then whats the issu? Well its the Boilermaker's shaky early season non conference performances which included losses to the likes of North Florida and Gardner Webb as well as Vanderbilt. Honestly I think its overblown by some bracketologists. The wins are there and the resume is strong. A trip to Michigan State and a home tilt with Illinois remain. Win both and they are in, split and they look pretty good. Lose both and that's when those losses get looked at and they would need a strong Big 10 tourney run.
12. (51) CINCINNATI 20-9: Some good things to like here but on the flip side some bad. The Bearcats face a huge tilt against suprising bubble Tulsa on the road. There are 4 AAC teams in contention for bids, SMU the projected AAC winner, Cincy, Tulsa and Temple but in the end this league will only get 3 bids at most. Very important for Cincy to stay ahead of the other bubbles and get that win. A key here was a sweep over SMU to go along with a split at Temple. OOC wins at NC State and San Diego State are very good. 5-4 vs top 50 is a plus and 6-6 vs top 100 is solid enough. The problem with the Bearcats are those bad losses....ECU, Tulane and Nebraska. There is enough reason to be worried so making the AAC tourney finals may be required here.
13. (34) OREGON 21-8: A strong overall rpi number on an otherwise unspectacular resume. Still at 12-5, the Ducks are now in 2nd place in the Pac 10 and have won 10 of their last 12. Biggest win is Utah and throw in wins over bubbles Illinois and UCLA but that win over Stanford this weekend really helped. The bad losses to the Washington schools were early in the Pac 10 season. A trip to Oregon State remains and they need that one plus some wins in the Pac 12 tourney to shore things up. Just 1-4 vs top 50, the 8-6 mark vs top 100 is good on the surface but some mediocre schools including in there
14. (39) TEMPLE 20-9: Owls should be feel worried with the recent Tulsa surge. Owls got swept not only by Tulsa but also by SMU. As said earlier this conference is not getting 4 bids so going 0-4 vs those schools and only splitting with Cincy hurts. How much giving are they going to get from that Kansas win back in December. Other than that you have the Cincy win and a win over CUSA leader La Tech but the feeling is this resume is lacking some oomph. They are just 1-6 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100...and are hoping that both Cincy and La Tech can break into that top 50. That bad loss to rival St Joes sticks out. Owls finish at ECU and home to UConn. Both are must wins and then they would do themselves well to reach the AAC finals or they really will be sweating things out.
15. (26) COLORADO STATE 23-5: Rams continue to win but they also keep moving toward the last in line as well. The overall win total is gaudy and the overall rpi is outstanding at 26 but digging deeper here indicates some red flags. CSU's best non conference win is Georgia State. They split with both BSU and SDSU and that's it for games against top 50 schools. 10 of their wins are to plus 200 rpi schools. They got swept by fading Wyoming and have a bad loss at New Mexico. How much does the committee balance their record and overall rpi vs a thin profile. And now to make matters worse Boise has leapfrogged into the filed as the projected MWC winner. With SDSU projected as an at large lock, it puts the Rams in a precarious situation. They cannot afford to trip up on the road at Nevada and Utah State and will need to make the MWC finals to maintain their spot on the good side of the bubble.
16. (38) TEXAS A&M 20-8: Aggies missed a shot at a much needed quality win but fell at Arkansas. Unfortunately for them the last two of Alabama and Florida will not move the needle all that much. They are riding on just two quality wins...both over LSU. Certainly they are being helped by Tigers moving into the rpi top 50 but is that enough to get them in. Their best OOC win was Sam Houston. Yes the conference mark of 11-5 is good enough for 3rd but numbers of 2-6 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100 are less than middling. Note the losses to bubbles Dayton, Ole Miss and Georgia. Perhaps their biggest positive is that they do not have any losses to schools outside the top 100. In such a soft weak bubble that's good enough to keep them in for now but they better have a strong run in the SEC tourney to maintain their status.
17. (52) UCLA 18-12: Bruins SOS of 25 is helping them for now but they simply need to spruce up their resume. With only a game left vs bottom feeder USC that means perhaps they will have to make a deep Pac 12 tourney run. While the win against Utah is good, its their only top 25 win and the win over Oregon makes just two top 50 wins...2-6. The 5-10 mark vs top 100 is sloppy and the 3-11 road neutral mark is a huge red flag. That sweep over Stanford puts them ahead of the Cardinal if it came down to that. So they are in for now but with so many holes in their profile and a very fluid bubble its not that great of a place to be.
18. (39) BYU 21-8: Well it was do or die for the Cougars at Gonzaga on Saturday and the Cougars did...becoming only the 2nd team to defeat the Zags. The win was enough to push BYU into the field for now but anything less than the WCC finals will likely push them out. Will getting to the finals even be good enough? The wins over St Marys, Stanford and UMass are good but not great wins. 1-3 vs top 50 and 4-5 vs top 100. Bad losses to Pepperdine 2x and San Diego loom large. Note the loss to bubble Purdue. There are enough reasons to leave them out. The WCC profile is poor this year as its not a top 10 conference. BYU might be better served by winning the whole WCC tourney than leave it up to chance
OUT
19. (46) TEXAS 17-12: That win over Baylor last night kept them alive. It stopped the bleeding of 4 straight losses. Still they have dropped 8 of their last 12. The Big 12 mark is just 7-10. While they still have no bad loss its still tough to overcome numbers like 3-11 vs top 50 and 6-12 vs top 100. Certainly they have been tested and scheduled strong...SOS of 9 but so so many losses against quality competition could steer the committee away from them. The Baylor win added to the total which included Iowa and West Virginia. The worst loss is to rpi 56 Stanford. Longhorns will need to beat Kansas State in their finale and hope to rehab their numbers with a couple of quality wins in the Big 12 tourney. If they can get to the semis they have a legit shot to bounce back on the right side of the bubble.
20. (58) ILLINOIS 18-11: Illini have put themselves in position for a bid but have a good amount of work to do. For one that game to close the season looms large. Just 3-7 vs top 50 and 5-10 vs top 100, they need as many quality wins as they can get. If they can get that one and maybe make it to the Big 10 semis they will have a shot, lose to Purdue and they may have to make the Big 10 finals to be considered. Some good wins here...Baylor, Maryland, Purdue, and at Michigan St. Just one bad loss at Nebraska but perhaps too many losses to teams like Minnesota, Michigan and Miami that a tourney team needs to beat. The 5-9 road/neutral mark does not help. Clearly at the bottom of the Big 10 bubble pecking order
21. (37) TULSA 21-6: Somehow the Golden Hurricanes find themselves atop the AAC with a 14-2 mark. Going to keep SMU as the autobid winner for now but a big matchup looms between those schools that will decide first place in the league. Beyond the conference mark in a league not respected for strength there is only that sweep of Temple to go on. Not sure that gets you in and the biggest OOC win is an awful Creighton. 0-3 vs top 25, 2-4 vs top 50 and 5-5 vs top 100. The SOS is a poor 119 and 10 of their wins are to plus rpi 200 schools. Before the SMU game they get Cincy at home as well. Win these two games and the profile vastly improves, lose both and they probably need to win the AAC tourney. What a huge pendulum swing week for Tulsa.
22. (36) DAVIDSON 20-6: Now tied for first with Dayton and URI they are an interesting case. The A10 is not going to get more than 3 bids. VCU is a lock whether they are the tourney winner or not. Dayton is 2nd in the pecking order. Can this conference which is so down squeeze out a third? The record and overall rpi number is nice but there is not a lot of flesh here. Just a win over Dayton and wins over so so schools like UMass, Rhody and Richmond. The biggest OOC win is only UNC Wilmington. Just 6 losses but two are bad...St Joes and St Bonnies. 0-3 vs top 25, 1-3 vs top 50 are bad. 7-4 vs top 100 is full of some mediocre conference wins. Still they have won 7 in a row and now get to host VCU and while the Rams are not in first, beating them carries some cache that will keep Davidson in contention. Fail to win that game and even a run to the A10 finals may not be enough
23. (56) STANFORD 18-10: Cardinal profile starting to sag as we head down the stretch. The win at Texas does not look as strong, they lost a huge bubble matchup vs Oregon and now both Oregon and UCLA have pulled a bit ahead of them. 0-3 vs those schools, Just 1-5 vs top 50, Stanford has just a win over Wofford who is the only likely NCAA participant on the resume. That does not cut it. They need to win at Arizona to revive their hopes. Note they also lost to BYU. They have so much work to do in the Pac 12 tourney.
24. (70) MIAMI 18-11: Hurricanes simply needed that win vs UNC but didn't get it. That win over Duke only gives so much. Besides that is wins over bubbles Illinois and NC State but nothing much else. 2-6 vs top 50 is mediocre and 6-7 vs top 100 while okay needs more Ultimately the 4 bad losses...Ga Tech, FSU, Wake and E Kentucky loom very large here. A trip to Pitt is next, the winner will keep their hopes alive, the loser will need a ACC finals tourney run to even have a chance.
25. (49) PITTSBURGH 18-11: Panthers find themselves short on quality wins as well. Beat UNC and Notre Dame in the ACC but their best win OOC is distant bubble Kansas State. 2-7 vs top 50 and 5-8 vs top 100 need a lot of help. The loss over the weekend at Wake Forest was brutal and added to their bad losses which already included Va Tech and Hawaii. The road mark at 4-9 also raises a red flag. Absolutely needs that Miami game plus the trip to FSU and then some in the ACC tourney. ACC looking like they may just get 5 bids this year.
26. (44) OLD DOMINION 22-6: I resisted somewhat in putting them on this list mainly due to the 11-5 mark in a really bad CUSA conference. Losses to the likes of Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, UT San Antonio, and UAB. How can a school with losses like that even be considered. Well for one have you seen how soft the underbelly of the bubble is this year. But what we need to look at with the Monarchs are what they did OOC. Wins over likely NCAA participants in LSU and VCU. They have a win over CUSA leader La Tech, also some okay wins over top 100 schools Richmond and Georgia State....6-4 vs top 100 rpi. Their best shot is to just win the CUSA tournament which they can do. Other than that winning the last two against WKentucky and Marshall and then getting to the CUSA finals will have them in consideration but its certainly a longshot even then.
27. (67) RHODE ISLAND 19-7, (61) UMASS 17-12, (65) RICHMOND 17-12: All 3 A10 schools are pretty big longshots at this point for at large bids. While URI is in a tie for first place in the A10 they have no top 50 wins and only wins against UMass and Richmond to point to. If they can win at Dayton and beat SJU and make the A10 finals they could have a case. UMass despite 6 top 100 wins has sputtered of late. Wins against Dayton and Iona are nice but not enough and they will need to win out and make the A10 finals as well. Richmond jumped on the list by beating VCU completing a sweep and they did beat Davidson but it might be reaching for even them even if they make the A10 finals
30. (76) KANSAS STATE 15-15: So this is what happens when you beat two top 15 rpi schools in one week after losing 7 of 8. Never has a team with this many losses been on the bubble and never as an at large team with so many losses...and they would have 16 if they don't win the Big 12 tourney been selected for a NCAA bid but this is an interesting case. Hear me out....The Wildcats have 5 top 50 wins...are a whopping 7-10 vs top 50..those numbers alone are good enough to be in the tournament. The SOS is a sparkling 12 and even the conference mark at 8-9 in the top conference is better than bubble schools Okie St and Texas. A win over Kansas, a sweep of Oklahoma, wins over Ok St, Iowa St, Baylor, a non conference win over Texas A&M. Pretty impressive huh? Well those 15 losses just seem too many...too many losses to the likes of TCU, Texas Tech, Texas Southern. But what if? What if KState beats Texas in their finale and then makes a run to the Big 12 finals beating more top 50 schools...what will the selection committee do. Could they invite a 18-16 school who could have as many as 9 top 50 rpi wins and 11 top 100 schools. I really want to see this scenario play out.
LAST 4 IN: BRIGHAM YOUNG, UCLA, TEXAS A&M, COLORADO STATE
LAST 4 OUT: TEXAS, ILLINOIS, TULSA, DAVIDSON
Multiple Bid Leagues
Big 10: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
ACC: 6
Pac 12: 4
AAC: 3
MWC: 3
A10: 2
MVC: 2
WCC: 2
projected league winners such as SMU, Boise State, and Dayton will also be serious at large contenders. Mid majors such as Murray State, Stephen F Austin, Wofford, and Louisiana Tech figure to be considered if they do not win their leagues but unlikely to receive selections
This post was edited on 3/6 5:37 PM by bac2therac
Here are the 32 projected automatic bid winners...
AMERICA EAST: Albany
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC 10: Dayton
ACC: Virginia
ATLANTIC SUN: Northern Florida
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: Sacramento State
BIG SOUTH: High Point
BIG 10: Wisconsin
BIG WEST: UC Davis
COLONIAL: Northeastern
CUSA: Louisiana Tech
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Central Michigan
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MVC: Wichita State
MWC: Boise State
NEC: St Francis NY
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PAC 12: Arizona
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: Wofford
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F Austin
SWAC: Texas Southern
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
SUN BELT: Georgia Southern
WCC: Gonzaga
18 schools that I have identified as at large locks....
Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Northern Iowa, Utah, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Butler, St John's, Virginia Commonwealth, San Diego State
that takes care of 50 of the 68 bids. I have identified 30 schools competing for just 18 bids. Here is the bubble pecking order....
IN
1. (42) INDIANA 19-10: Hooisers missed an opportunity to lock in as they suffered a head scratching loss at Northwestern last week continuing their pattern of up down up down up down. While its not the kind of loss a bubble team would want this late, Indy's profile still stands out on this list. They picked up solid non conference wins over SMU, Pitt and Butler. In the Big 10 they knocked off Maryland and bubbles Ohio State and Illinois. 5-6 vs rpi top 50 and 8-9 vs top 100 are very good numbers as is their SOS of 32. Two negatives are the road/neutral mark at 4-8 and getting swept by Purdue. Two more chances for quality wins at home vs Iowa and Michigan State and cannot see them being left out barring losing both of those AND losing their first round Big 10 tourney game.
2. (32) GEORGIA 19-9: Bulldogs completed the season sweep by winning at Ole Miss over the weekend to move to the top of the SEC bubble pecking order. While they do not have any top 25 wins, wins at Texas A&M and Kansas State are pretty good and the 9-7 mark vs rpi top 100 is one of the best you will find on this list. They have a chance to make it academic if they can win at home vs Kentucky but the thinking is they don't need that as long as they don't suffer a bad loss to complete the season at Auburn. Remember they already lost to them and got swept by So Carolina
3. (48) IOWA 19-10: Hawkeyes have taken care of business the last two weeks including a crucial win over Illinois last week. This week offers a trip to Indiana and then a rematch with Northwestern who represent the only bad loss on their resume. Beating Indy locks them in but even a win over Northwestern should be enough. RPI stuff is solid.....SOS of 28, 4-6 vs top 50 and 7-9 vs top 100. The win at North Carolina OOC and the sweep of Ohio State as well as their win over Maryland are resume standouts. Looking good to go.
4. (45) LSU 21-8: Huge huge win over Ole Miss that completed the season sweep of the Rebels moves the Tigers very close. Now 4-4 vs rpi top 50 and an outstanding 11-5 vs top 100, they have wins at WVU and UMass. 3 bad losses to Auburn, Missouri and Mississippi State do drag down their profile a bit. However, this is a team that just passes the eye test. Don't think that 2 point loss to Kentucky isn't paying off even as a loss. Tigers finish off with a home tilt vs Tennessee and a trip to Arkansas. The latter of course would give them another quality win to lock them in but as long as they win the former they should feel good without having to do much in the SEC tourney
5. (31) MICHIGAN STATE 19-10: One of 6 Big 10 bubbles, a closer inspection of the Spartans resume gives me some pause. Its pretty unspectacular for a school used to being a NCAA lock. While the SOS is a strong 23. They have no top 25 victories. Their best OOC win was Loyola of Illinois. They have a bad loss to Texas Southern. They didn't beat the top 2 teams in the league in Wisky and Maryland. The 3-6 mark vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100 are sort of middling. They do have 4 quality league wins...Indiana, at Iowa, Ohio State, and at Ilinois though and that still gives them a cushion over the rest of the weak bubble field. Very important week coming up with games vs Purdue and at Indiana. Cannot afford to lose both or they would need a strong Big 10 tourney run to feel safe.
6. (43) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-11: Hard to figure out what happened here. The Cowboys were rolling along coming off a feather in their cap win over Kansas but now have lost 4 straight including two hideous losses to TCU and Texas Tech. The nitty gritty stuff is all more than willing...SOS of 16...3 top 25 wins, 6-7 vs top 50 and 8-9 vs top 100. Note sweeps over Baylor and Texas and a solid win over Tulsa. Yet their Big 10 mark is just 7-9, they made history last year as the first 8-10 school from the Big 12 to make the NCAA tourney. The slide has to stop and that means avoiding another loss to TCU. They may not have to win at WVU in their last game but if they do not they will be putting themselves at the mercy of the bubble around or will need a complete reversal of fortune in the Big 12 tournament.
7. (41) XAVIER 18-12: Missed a shot at a feather in their cap win but lost at home to Villanova but the loss earlier in the week at St John's was the one that really hurt. It meant two losses to SJU who has now vaulted to lock status and left the Muskateers as the only BE bubble left. Still there are good things to see here led by that SOS of 14. Then you have the 4 top 25 wins...4-6 vs top 50 and 9-8 vs top 100. A sweep over Gtown, sneaky good wins over projected NCAA autobid winners SF Austin and Murray State. The loss total of 12 is a concern here as they cannot afford another loss at Creighton in regular season finale and then another loss in the BE tourney..that would give them 14 and that does stand out no matter how good their wins were. That's when the bad losses to the likes of De Paul, Creighton and Auburn come in.
8. (50) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17-12: Wolfpack keep shooting themselves in the foot. 2 road wins at Louisville and UNC seemingly locked them in given that earlier win over Duke but then they go out and loss badly to weak sister Boston College. Its not fatal though. I mean those aforementioned wins are sparkling and then you throw in that win over MWC leader Boise State, plus solid wins vs Pitt, Richmond and La Tech and the wins are strong enough to get them in. 5-5 vs top 50 and 7-10 vs top 100 and the SOS of 5 keeps giving and giving. Still like with Xavier you worry about the overall loss total. Its 12 now. A trip to Clemson who already beat NCState and Syracuse close the season. These are tough games where any trip ups are going to start taking away from the positives on the resume.
9. (33) OHIO STATE 21-8: Not a good week for them as they dropped road trips to both the Michigan schools. Buckeyes resume is a little lacking so despite their overall rpi number and record they find themselves a little further down on this list then they would like. Just 1-2 vs top 25 (Maryland) and a paltry 2-6 vs top 50. That's very surprising for a Big 10 school. The 7-8 mark vs top 100 is better and is reflected in wins over fellow bubbles Indiana, Illinois and Purdue. Their best OOC win is High Point. In their favor is they havent suffered a bad loss all year long and that counts. The SOS of 88 is sort of meh and the 3-7 road/neutral mark stands out. If this was pre 68 tourney days, they really would need to be worried but the feeling here is if they can get that win at Penn State, it will take some strange circumstances to knock them out. Of course they could also go out and make it academic by knocking off league leading Wisconsin.
10. (47) MISSISSIPPI 19-10: In one week the Rebels went from feeling really peachy to feeling really worried. Losses to SEC bubbles Georgia and LSU not only were missed opportunities to pick up their last quality wins before the SEC tourney, it also meant Ole Miss went 0-4 vs those schools..ouch. The rpi stuff is still solid 3-7 vs top 50 and 7-7 vs top 100 with a SOS of 35. Key quality wins against bubbles Oregon, at Cincy and over Texas A&M with their best win at Arkansas. Note the road/neutral mark strength at 10-4. Bama and a trip to Vandy are next and if they can win both they probably can relax a little but still I would like to see them get another quality win in the SEC tourney just to be sure.
11. (58) PURDUE 19-10: Might be the most talked about bubble team because of the contrasts here on the profile. At 11-5 in the Big 10, they have clearly demonstrated they are a worthy NCAA selection. They swept Indiana, beat Iowa and Ohio State, and avoided bad losses Non conference wins over bubbles BYU and NC State are solid. Those marks of 6-4 vs 8-8 vs top 100 are as about as good as you will find on the bubble. So then whats the issu? Well its the Boilermaker's shaky early season non conference performances which included losses to the likes of North Florida and Gardner Webb as well as Vanderbilt. Honestly I think its overblown by some bracketologists. The wins are there and the resume is strong. A trip to Michigan State and a home tilt with Illinois remain. Win both and they are in, split and they look pretty good. Lose both and that's when those losses get looked at and they would need a strong Big 10 tourney run.
12. (51) CINCINNATI 20-9: Some good things to like here but on the flip side some bad. The Bearcats face a huge tilt against suprising bubble Tulsa on the road. There are 4 AAC teams in contention for bids, SMU the projected AAC winner, Cincy, Tulsa and Temple but in the end this league will only get 3 bids at most. Very important for Cincy to stay ahead of the other bubbles and get that win. A key here was a sweep over SMU to go along with a split at Temple. OOC wins at NC State and San Diego State are very good. 5-4 vs top 50 is a plus and 6-6 vs top 100 is solid enough. The problem with the Bearcats are those bad losses....ECU, Tulane and Nebraska. There is enough reason to be worried so making the AAC tourney finals may be required here.
13. (34) OREGON 21-8: A strong overall rpi number on an otherwise unspectacular resume. Still at 12-5, the Ducks are now in 2nd place in the Pac 10 and have won 10 of their last 12. Biggest win is Utah and throw in wins over bubbles Illinois and UCLA but that win over Stanford this weekend really helped. The bad losses to the Washington schools were early in the Pac 10 season. A trip to Oregon State remains and they need that one plus some wins in the Pac 12 tourney to shore things up. Just 1-4 vs top 50, the 8-6 mark vs top 100 is good on the surface but some mediocre schools including in there
14. (39) TEMPLE 20-9: Owls should be feel worried with the recent Tulsa surge. Owls got swept not only by Tulsa but also by SMU. As said earlier this conference is not getting 4 bids so going 0-4 vs those schools and only splitting with Cincy hurts. How much giving are they going to get from that Kansas win back in December. Other than that you have the Cincy win and a win over CUSA leader La Tech but the feeling is this resume is lacking some oomph. They are just 1-6 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100...and are hoping that both Cincy and La Tech can break into that top 50. That bad loss to rival St Joes sticks out. Owls finish at ECU and home to UConn. Both are must wins and then they would do themselves well to reach the AAC finals or they really will be sweating things out.
15. (26) COLORADO STATE 23-5: Rams continue to win but they also keep moving toward the last in line as well. The overall win total is gaudy and the overall rpi is outstanding at 26 but digging deeper here indicates some red flags. CSU's best non conference win is Georgia State. They split with both BSU and SDSU and that's it for games against top 50 schools. 10 of their wins are to plus 200 rpi schools. They got swept by fading Wyoming and have a bad loss at New Mexico. How much does the committee balance their record and overall rpi vs a thin profile. And now to make matters worse Boise has leapfrogged into the filed as the projected MWC winner. With SDSU projected as an at large lock, it puts the Rams in a precarious situation. They cannot afford to trip up on the road at Nevada and Utah State and will need to make the MWC finals to maintain their spot on the good side of the bubble.
16. (38) TEXAS A&M 20-8: Aggies missed a shot at a much needed quality win but fell at Arkansas. Unfortunately for them the last two of Alabama and Florida will not move the needle all that much. They are riding on just two quality wins...both over LSU. Certainly they are being helped by Tigers moving into the rpi top 50 but is that enough to get them in. Their best OOC win was Sam Houston. Yes the conference mark of 11-5 is good enough for 3rd but numbers of 2-6 vs top 50 and 6-8 vs top 100 are less than middling. Note the losses to bubbles Dayton, Ole Miss and Georgia. Perhaps their biggest positive is that they do not have any losses to schools outside the top 100. In such a soft weak bubble that's good enough to keep them in for now but they better have a strong run in the SEC tourney to maintain their status.
17. (52) UCLA 18-12: Bruins SOS of 25 is helping them for now but they simply need to spruce up their resume. With only a game left vs bottom feeder USC that means perhaps they will have to make a deep Pac 12 tourney run. While the win against Utah is good, its their only top 25 win and the win over Oregon makes just two top 50 wins...2-6. The 5-10 mark vs top 100 is sloppy and the 3-11 road neutral mark is a huge red flag. That sweep over Stanford puts them ahead of the Cardinal if it came down to that. So they are in for now but with so many holes in their profile and a very fluid bubble its not that great of a place to be.
18. (39) BYU 21-8: Well it was do or die for the Cougars at Gonzaga on Saturday and the Cougars did...becoming only the 2nd team to defeat the Zags. The win was enough to push BYU into the field for now but anything less than the WCC finals will likely push them out. Will getting to the finals even be good enough? The wins over St Marys, Stanford and UMass are good but not great wins. 1-3 vs top 50 and 4-5 vs top 100. Bad losses to Pepperdine 2x and San Diego loom large. Note the loss to bubble Purdue. There are enough reasons to leave them out. The WCC profile is poor this year as its not a top 10 conference. BYU might be better served by winning the whole WCC tourney than leave it up to chance
OUT
19. (46) TEXAS 17-12: That win over Baylor last night kept them alive. It stopped the bleeding of 4 straight losses. Still they have dropped 8 of their last 12. The Big 12 mark is just 7-10. While they still have no bad loss its still tough to overcome numbers like 3-11 vs top 50 and 6-12 vs top 100. Certainly they have been tested and scheduled strong...SOS of 9 but so so many losses against quality competition could steer the committee away from them. The Baylor win added to the total which included Iowa and West Virginia. The worst loss is to rpi 56 Stanford. Longhorns will need to beat Kansas State in their finale and hope to rehab their numbers with a couple of quality wins in the Big 12 tourney. If they can get to the semis they have a legit shot to bounce back on the right side of the bubble.
20. (58) ILLINOIS 18-11: Illini have put themselves in position for a bid but have a good amount of work to do. For one that game to close the season looms large. Just 3-7 vs top 50 and 5-10 vs top 100, they need as many quality wins as they can get. If they can get that one and maybe make it to the Big 10 semis they will have a shot, lose to Purdue and they may have to make the Big 10 finals to be considered. Some good wins here...Baylor, Maryland, Purdue, and at Michigan St. Just one bad loss at Nebraska but perhaps too many losses to teams like Minnesota, Michigan and Miami that a tourney team needs to beat. The 5-9 road/neutral mark does not help. Clearly at the bottom of the Big 10 bubble pecking order
21. (37) TULSA 21-6: Somehow the Golden Hurricanes find themselves atop the AAC with a 14-2 mark. Going to keep SMU as the autobid winner for now but a big matchup looms between those schools that will decide first place in the league. Beyond the conference mark in a league not respected for strength there is only that sweep of Temple to go on. Not sure that gets you in and the biggest OOC win is an awful Creighton. 0-3 vs top 25, 2-4 vs top 50 and 5-5 vs top 100. The SOS is a poor 119 and 10 of their wins are to plus rpi 200 schools. Before the SMU game they get Cincy at home as well. Win these two games and the profile vastly improves, lose both and they probably need to win the AAC tourney. What a huge pendulum swing week for Tulsa.
22. (36) DAVIDSON 20-6: Now tied for first with Dayton and URI they are an interesting case. The A10 is not going to get more than 3 bids. VCU is a lock whether they are the tourney winner or not. Dayton is 2nd in the pecking order. Can this conference which is so down squeeze out a third? The record and overall rpi number is nice but there is not a lot of flesh here. Just a win over Dayton and wins over so so schools like UMass, Rhody and Richmond. The biggest OOC win is only UNC Wilmington. Just 6 losses but two are bad...St Joes and St Bonnies. 0-3 vs top 25, 1-3 vs top 50 are bad. 7-4 vs top 100 is full of some mediocre conference wins. Still they have won 7 in a row and now get to host VCU and while the Rams are not in first, beating them carries some cache that will keep Davidson in contention. Fail to win that game and even a run to the A10 finals may not be enough
23. (56) STANFORD 18-10: Cardinal profile starting to sag as we head down the stretch. The win at Texas does not look as strong, they lost a huge bubble matchup vs Oregon and now both Oregon and UCLA have pulled a bit ahead of them. 0-3 vs those schools, Just 1-5 vs top 50, Stanford has just a win over Wofford who is the only likely NCAA participant on the resume. That does not cut it. They need to win at Arizona to revive their hopes. Note they also lost to BYU. They have so much work to do in the Pac 12 tourney.
24. (70) MIAMI 18-11: Hurricanes simply needed that win vs UNC but didn't get it. That win over Duke only gives so much. Besides that is wins over bubbles Illinois and NC State but nothing much else. 2-6 vs top 50 is mediocre and 6-7 vs top 100 while okay needs more Ultimately the 4 bad losses...Ga Tech, FSU, Wake and E Kentucky loom very large here. A trip to Pitt is next, the winner will keep their hopes alive, the loser will need a ACC finals tourney run to even have a chance.
25. (49) PITTSBURGH 18-11: Panthers find themselves short on quality wins as well. Beat UNC and Notre Dame in the ACC but their best win OOC is distant bubble Kansas State. 2-7 vs top 50 and 5-8 vs top 100 need a lot of help. The loss over the weekend at Wake Forest was brutal and added to their bad losses which already included Va Tech and Hawaii. The road mark at 4-9 also raises a red flag. Absolutely needs that Miami game plus the trip to FSU and then some in the ACC tourney. ACC looking like they may just get 5 bids this year.
26. (44) OLD DOMINION 22-6: I resisted somewhat in putting them on this list mainly due to the 11-5 mark in a really bad CUSA conference. Losses to the likes of Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, UT San Antonio, and UAB. How can a school with losses like that even be considered. Well for one have you seen how soft the underbelly of the bubble is this year. But what we need to look at with the Monarchs are what they did OOC. Wins over likely NCAA participants in LSU and VCU. They have a win over CUSA leader La Tech, also some okay wins over top 100 schools Richmond and Georgia State....6-4 vs top 100 rpi. Their best shot is to just win the CUSA tournament which they can do. Other than that winning the last two against WKentucky and Marshall and then getting to the CUSA finals will have them in consideration but its certainly a longshot even then.
27. (67) RHODE ISLAND 19-7, (61) UMASS 17-12, (65) RICHMOND 17-12: All 3 A10 schools are pretty big longshots at this point for at large bids. While URI is in a tie for first place in the A10 they have no top 50 wins and only wins against UMass and Richmond to point to. If they can win at Dayton and beat SJU and make the A10 finals they could have a case. UMass despite 6 top 100 wins has sputtered of late. Wins against Dayton and Iona are nice but not enough and they will need to win out and make the A10 finals as well. Richmond jumped on the list by beating VCU completing a sweep and they did beat Davidson but it might be reaching for even them even if they make the A10 finals
30. (76) KANSAS STATE 15-15: So this is what happens when you beat two top 15 rpi schools in one week after losing 7 of 8. Never has a team with this many losses been on the bubble and never as an at large team with so many losses...and they would have 16 if they don't win the Big 12 tourney been selected for a NCAA bid but this is an interesting case. Hear me out....The Wildcats have 5 top 50 wins...are a whopping 7-10 vs top 50..those numbers alone are good enough to be in the tournament. The SOS is a sparkling 12 and even the conference mark at 8-9 in the top conference is better than bubble schools Okie St and Texas. A win over Kansas, a sweep of Oklahoma, wins over Ok St, Iowa St, Baylor, a non conference win over Texas A&M. Pretty impressive huh? Well those 15 losses just seem too many...too many losses to the likes of TCU, Texas Tech, Texas Southern. But what if? What if KState beats Texas in their finale and then makes a run to the Big 12 finals beating more top 50 schools...what will the selection committee do. Could they invite a 18-16 school who could have as many as 9 top 50 rpi wins and 11 top 100 schools. I really want to see this scenario play out.
LAST 4 IN: BRIGHAM YOUNG, UCLA, TEXAS A&M, COLORADO STATE
LAST 4 OUT: TEXAS, ILLINOIS, TULSA, DAVIDSON
Multiple Bid Leagues
Big 10: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
ACC: 6
Pac 12: 4
AAC: 3
MWC: 3
A10: 2
MVC: 2
WCC: 2
projected league winners such as SMU, Boise State, and Dayton will also be serious at large contenders. Mid majors such as Murray State, Stephen F Austin, Wofford, and Louisiana Tech figure to be considered if they do not win their leagues but unlikely to receive selections
This post was edited on 3/6 5:37 PM by bac2therac
