TheKnightReport - Deep Dive Comparison: Gavin Wimsatt versus Athan Kaliakmanis
Taking a deep dive into the analytics behind Rutgers quarterbacks Gavin Wimsatt and Athan Kaliakmanis.
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Football Deep Dive Comparison: Gavin Wimsatt versus Athan Kaliakmanis
- Thread starter Richie O
- Start date
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Going to cherry pick a couple of games from last year against superior defensive competition in the BIG. In these tougher games not seeing a lot of differentiation - except to the extent that Gavin appears to be a better runner.
vs. Michigan:
Athan: 5 - 15 for 52 yards (1 TD 2 INTs -9 yrds rushing on 5 attempts)
Gavin: 11 - 21 for 180 yards (1 TD 1 INT ....28 yrds rushing on 6 attempts)
vs. OSU
Athan: 11 - 19 for 89 yards (0 TD 1 INTs 3 yrds rushing on 7 attempts)
Gavin: 10 - 25 for 129 yards (1 TD 1 INT ....49 yrds rushing on 13 attempts)
vs. Iowa
Athan: 10 - 25 for 126 yards (0 TD 0 INTs -7 yrds rushing on 8 attempts)
Gavin: 7 - 18 for 93 yards (0 TD 1 INT ....-3 yrds rushing on 3 attempts)
vs. Michigan:
Athan: 5 - 15 for 52 yards (1 TD 2 INTs -9 yrds rushing on 5 attempts)
Gavin: 11 - 21 for 180 yards (1 TD 1 INT ....28 yrds rushing on 6 attempts)
vs. OSU
Athan: 11 - 19 for 89 yards (0 TD 1 INTs 3 yrds rushing on 7 attempts)
Gavin: 10 - 25 for 129 yards (1 TD 1 INT ....49 yrds rushing on 13 attempts)
vs. Iowa
Athan: 10 - 25 for 126 yards (0 TD 0 INTs -7 yrds rushing on 8 attempts)
Gavin: 7 - 18 for 93 yards (0 TD 1 INT ....-3 yrds rushing on 3 attempts)
Just hope it’s a fair one.
Saw a guy come in against Wisconsin throw a TD pass, and never heard from again.
Nothing in those statistics changes my mind that it's about 60/40 odds GW starts next season. And those odds factor in what some here are saying about how AK "didn't come here to be the backup" or whatever. Otherwise I'd think it was even more likely GW starts.
Assuming both QBs are still here for game one, I think it most likely to be a QB competition where the starter goes undecided (or at least unnamed) until pretty close to game one. I don't expect the approach to offense to change from what it is now - a very run-heavy eat-the-clock approach, using passing only to keep the defense guessing a bit or as necessary.
If either QB is turning the ball over in practices, that's gonna hurt their chances. GS isn't changing his lifelong focus on "the ball is the game" and the team's approach to winning will depend heavily on not turning the ball over. Neither of these QBs is going to magically turn the team into an air-raid offense.
Assuming both QBs are still here for game one, I think it most likely to be a QB competition where the starter goes undecided (or at least unnamed) until pretty close to game one. I don't expect the approach to offense to change from what it is now - a very run-heavy eat-the-clock approach, using passing only to keep the defense guessing a bit or as necessary.
If either QB is turning the ball over in practices, that's gonna hurt their chances. GS isn't changing his lifelong focus on "the ball is the game" and the team's approach to winning will depend heavily on not turning the ball over. Neither of these QBs is going to magically turn the team into an air-raid offense.
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I think having Howard and Akron on the schedule as the first games helps Athan in the battle a lot. Gavin has historically performed much worse against bad teams. In my opinion, even if he were to be the starter for game one he’ll need to be a lot more accurate than he was vs Temple and Wagner to hold onto the role. It’s not going to be like Simon who didn’t fit the system we were trying to run. We’ll have a plug and play back up who fits the scheme. Athan completed 75.9% of his passes against a pair of 6-7 G5 teams. If he gets a chance he would likely perform very well in the air in these 2 cupcakes. Gavin might also but that would take material year over year improvement from him.
Define "fair". Watching a QB do well on one series in one game doesn't override the coaching staffs' observations from of a full set of spring, fall and in-season practices.
Unless the starting QB in game one is turning the ball over or putting the ball in danger or not able to do the things the staff wants, then 99% of the competition will play out in practice and meeting rooms, not on the field in front of fans.
As an objective observer, I see nothing unfair about that at all. From the perspective of the backup QB, it might seem unfair sometimes, which is understandable.
From the perspective of a certain type of fan, who blames the QB for every incompletion or broken or otherwise failed play, it will never be a fair competition and the backup will always be assumed to have been treated unfairly because, in the fans' minds, the backup never makes mistakes versus the starter who will always make plenty of mistakes.
I am pulling for both guys as well as the rest of the QB room to succeed. And whomever the coaches start, I am confident in their choice and that the competition will be entirely fair.
Interesting. I agree that whomever starts, assuming both QBs are here, the leash will likely be a lot shorter than it was between GW and Simon.
My problem with the statistics are that they don't fully account for unknown circumstances, much of which we're not privy to (e.g. the exact plays called and their exact designs vs what actually happened on the field). What we don't know can have a huge impact on the numbers.
Put another way, the stats are so close between the two QBs that it falls well into the very large margin of error that exists due to everything we don't know. Even the RU coaching staff can't know a lot of things, although being coaches, they'll both have more access to film and be way better at analyzing what they're seeing than us fans.
So I look at the stats using the mental version of squinting to blur the details which gives a more accurate portrayal, IMO at least, of what the stats might mean, if the actual circumstances behind them aren't too terribly misleading.
I think incumbency is a very powerful factor, not likely to be entirely overridden by the OC's prior relationship with AK. The RU coaching staff knows GW very intimately, in great detail, and with full recency at this point. That gives them some degree of comfort that AK will have to work hard to overcome.
Fans will say, but the RU coaching staff knows how awful GW is. But that's a fans's ignorant and overstated view of things. And it's a view almost certainly not shared by the coaching staff. If it were, we would've seen Simon playing more and we didn't.
The RU coaching staff knows AK will have strengths and weaknesses just like GW does, and that they don't yet fully know them all. Which again goes to comfort level - better the devil you know. If AK is way better than his stats suggest, then it alters the math some. I already think GW is better than his stats suggest, but perhaps not way better.
So anyway, that's how I arrive at the 60/40 prediction. But we'll have to wait and see.
I don’t know. I’d agree the variables your referencing need to be considered in conference games and ultimately it could well be possible that Gavin’s speed to avoid sacks makes him a better choice against an elite team that either of them would struggle to complete passes against due to lack of protection.
But my point is a different one. Wagner is on its own level of terrible. No Power conference QB should ever misfire on 47% of passes against them. There’s a reason Sheppard was perfect in his few attempts (and no - it’s not because he’s the next Heisman candidate). It’s Wagner and clearly for whatever reason Gavin’s accuracy issues were even present against them. Louisiana and Eastern Michigan are G5 bowl teams. It’s unlikely Athan would struggle to complete passes against Howard and Akron who are much worse than these teams. Gavin might.
I see what you're saying. But Gavin's accuracy seemed, to me, to improve as the season wore on. In the bowl game, he was just fine accuracy-wise, with only a couple passes that could be labeled unintentionally inaccurate to the point of being not catchable.
Even the very best college QBs have some bad passes in pretty much every game. And neither GW nor AK are likely to ever be among the very best of college QBs. The jury's still out with AS, but he's probably not that guy either.
I have a feeling GW's accuracy will be fine next season. For me, regardless of whomever winds up playing QB, the two bigger issues for the passing game will be (1) we need to pass protect a bit better, especially against the elite Ds, and with better consistency, and (2) we need our receivers to do a much better job in a number of areas: route running, understanding when to break off early due to QB pressure, fighting for and winning the ball in tight coverage, and catching everything that hits their hands (like Sanu or Carroo or others).
We've seen some flashes from a couple WRs. But it's far from where we need to be to have a more reliable passing game. Combine that with more consistency from whomever the QB is and I think we'll be fine as long as the running game is working. If the running game isn't working, then we're not likely to be winning no matter who the QB is.
Having a feeling his accuracy will be fine feels like a massive leap of faith. I certainly hope you are right but I’m not seeing how he became more accurate throughout the season.
I don't like cherry picking games, even vs like opponents, but Gavin's stats are better here.
You keep parsing games in a way in which Athan comes out looking better in the head to head.
But even within this disingenuous comparison, you are disingenuous in the comparison. Athan threw an int in each of the games vs UL and EMU. Wimsatt did not throw an int vs either Temple or Wagner. Athan threw 2 td's total in those games. Same for Wimsatt. Wimsatt also threw for about 340 yards in those 2 games, while Athan was at 265.
All told I don't think we can say Athan performed any better in those 2 games then Wimsatt did.
Gavin was the better talent coming out of HS, he was the more sought after recruit, he is the incumbent at the better program. He will continue to mature and if we have coaches worth a lick, develop. If Gavin doesn't keep the job it is as much an indictment of the program as it is of him.
Huh? First of all - you do realize how much worse Wagner is than either Louisiana and Eastern Michigan, right? They are like a high school team. Fordham’s QB was 24 for 31 for 319 yards against Wagner for crying out loud. Any FBS QB should easily drop 300 on them. You cannot tally up yards to compare these games. I’m only talking about accuracy.
Also - not all interceptions are created equal. The pick your talking about in the Louisiana game came with time close to expiring in the first half. Being far from FG range, they decided to take a shot down field on a 50 / 50 ball. Louisiana came up with it at their own 19 and ran out the clock on their next snap. The point is- it was a calculated risk with that play call and not a reflection of QB accuracy. Athan completed 12 of his other 13 passes in the game. It’s hard to get more perfect than that on paper. The EM pick wasn’t great but it came with a 3 score lead and time winding down in Q4. And again - EM and UL were 6 win G5 teams. Temple won 3 games and Wagner is a bad FCS team.
The main take away - Athan had the green light to fire away while Gavin didn’t. It’s not the coaching. PJ is run first too. They trusted Athan’s arm way more. He had multiple 40+ throw games. How many did Gavin have? Athan wasn’t perfect against Nebraska but his arm was needed to get that win as they had no ground success that day. He played well against NW and Illinois and put his team in position to win. The defense lost those games for Minny. Minny had the lead in the Illini game with a minute to play and 4th down deep in Illini territory. A stop wouldve sealed it - the D failed them.
Athan had 2 bad games against teams Minny wasn’t going to beat anyway (Michigan and UNC). He made some mistakes against Wisconsin but also did some good things in that game. Nobody throws well against Iowa but he made some key completions and avoided mistakes which is likely what was asked of him (basically matching the best of what we’ve seen from Gavin in the pass game and getting the win).
The difference is multiple times with the game on the line Athan was able to drive the ball downfield with key pass plays. Gavin only did it once(ever) - in the Michigan State game.
We beat Wagner 52-3, why do I need to see Wimsatt throw for 300 yards in that game?
And Wimsatt didn't have any 40+ attempt games, but he did have 2 30+ attempt games, which is the same number as Athan.
You keep trying to parse the numbers, while also adding situational context to downplay Athan's poor stats, but end of the day the numbers between Gavin and Athan were very similar. Athan more accurate, Wimsatt the better runner.
And I don't don't know how much you should be talking up EMU, they didn't beat a team with a winning record all season. They themselves finished the season under .500, they got smoked by South Alabama 59-10. Got shut out by J'Ville state. Western Michigan, who finished the season 4-8, hung 45 on them.
Louisiana finished under .500 too, 3-5 in conf, which wass good for 4th in the Sun Belt West but I don't feel like breaking down their schedule. They aren't that good though, I'm pretty sure of that.
True and that raises another point.
Even in those early games, the coaching staff knew the plan was always to employ a run-heavy ball-protection time-eating offense. The goal was always was to keep the ball out of the hands of other team's offenses to limit their ability to wear down our D and score.
So why "practice" some other approach during those early games? Made more sense to use the same approach planned for the entire season. Which would also contribute to the skewing of the comparable stats between the two QBs. Even if the two teams planned similar approaches, they weren't identical. And we have no way of actually knowing what led the respective coaching staffs to make the choices they made. Just speculation.
We can speculate all we want. Can try to use the "data" to make the points we want to make. We can rely on our "insider knowledge". But in the end, the only way we're gonna know which QB will win the competition is to wait and see.
At this stage, nobody, not even the coaching staff, knows.
Good post. Some additional context. Vs. Michigan...the week before we ran for 256 yds against Virginia Tech aand 260 vs Temple the week before that. So Michigan came in and decided to shut down the run. Also, Mn was down 24-3 quickly and playing catch up, where GW was playing a close game most of the game.
Vs OSU, we ran for 232 yards on them. And we were winning at halftime. That should have set up Gavin for a higher completion percentage. MN in that game was down early, and was averaging 2.4 yards per rush.
Id also like to see completion %’s that factor in throw aways which we know Gavin did a lot, and also plays into the Schiano game plan.
Which is not to say Gavin is accurate, we know he’s not, but does it skew the stats a bit? At least a little id think.
Having watched most of AK's 2023 throws, you'd also have to factor into his stats that a large number of his throws were forcing the issue into tight coverages because he had to because they were down big and there were no other options. Often AK was balling trying to make something out of nothing. A situation that GW rarely faced.
Didn't feel that was to me either, so I took a look a bit deeper. 4 of Gavin's 5 least accurate games according to adjusted completion percentage (which accounts for drops, throwaways, tipped passes, etc), were in the final 5 games...
tOSU: 43.5% (2nd worst)
Iowa: 47.1% (worst)
PSU: 73.3% (best)
Maryland: 46.7% (3rd worst)
Miami: 53.3% (5th worst)
Throwaways absolutely skew completion percentage. There's a stat I referenced in my previous post called adjusted completion percentage, which takes into account drops, throwaways and tipped passes at the line to give a more accurate representation of, well, accuracy.
In terms of where Gavin ranks amongst all FBS QBs with 250+ dropbacks this season (112 qualifying QBs), he ranks 112th/112 (dead last) with an adjusted completion percentage of 57.7%. The 2nd worst (111th/112) had an adjusted completion percentage of 62.8% (Garrett Greene of WVU). That's more than 5% worse than the 2nd worst in the FBS in that statistic.
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That is one of the reasons coaches always say that they have to look at the tape after the game to evaluate a player’s performance and not just the stats.
I wouldn't doubt that part of the QB game plan/coaching was:
"If it's not clearly there - don't take the chance and risk an INT. Regardless of game situation, avoid INTs. Throw it away or go somewhere else with the ball. The reward isn't worth the risk."
Said it a couple times - after we got bowl eligible, Gavin should have been told "Take the risk. Try and make the throw. Push the line to what you can complete and find the line. If you throw an INT, you're getting the ball again the next play. Don't over think it."
That's a plan to actually develop the QB and find out what he can and can't do in preparation for 2024 and beyond.
Down big? Don’t defenses often concede center of the field throws in that situation?
I would not call these "prevent defense" situations. Watch the tape and see for yourself.
Watching the new guy's "every throw" video now... good job TKR.. but I'm thinking Wimsatt has a chance.. if he shows some improvement... especially in the short ball. Personally.. I don't think this QB change will change the habit of throwing for 5 yards when we need 8 on 3rd down. Choosing the easier throw seems to be a habit for all Rutgers QBs... despite down and distance.
Will the posters agree with the coaching staff decision for QB or will we have this constant bickering during the entire season? I hope we don’t complain as much and give it a chance.
It's a sports board, we are all supposedly here to talk Rutgers football and the one position on the field that gets the most scrutiny is the QB. We have a very good defense, the QB position is the position perceived by many as holding back the program from reaching its full potential, of course it is going to be a hot topic during the off season and once the season starts.
