Again....
1. Baker/Mulcahy
2. Mathis/Young
3. Harper/McConnell/Kiss
4. Yeboah/Harper
5. Eugene/Myles
1. Baker/Mulcahy
2. Mathis/Young
3. Harper/McConnell/Kiss
4. Yeboah/Harper
5. Eugene/Myles
EDITED>>>Holy moses...take w grain of salt...bart preseason
- Thread starter Greene Rice FIG
- Start date
Last year in the middle of the season Scarlet Shack had a post about the need to shorten the rotation and get more minutes to guys like Caleb and Harper. Pikiell agreed (I am sure he didn't know he was agreeing with SS) and from that point going forward we improved....probably an inflection point of the season.
Ultimately we arent going to have 11 guys getting 15-24 minutes. Baker and Eugene are all going to play 27+. I assume Harper close to that too. If Eugene doesn't steal 5 minutes what perimeter player + Kiss (not ready to conclude this BTW) is out of the rotation... Mulcahy? Caleb? Montez?
I'd like to see a minutes breakdown with the 5 looking like
Myles 26 Carter/Duke 14. How are those 160 remaining minutes allocated?
Ultimately we arent going to have 11 guys getting 15-24 minutes. Baker and Eugene are all going to play 27+. I assume Harper close to that too. If Eugene doesn't steal 5 minutes what perimeter player + Kiss (not ready to conclude this BTW) is out of the rotation... Mulcahy? Caleb? Montez?
I'd like to see a minutes breakdown with the 5 looking like
Myles 26 Carter/Duke 14. How are those 160 remaining minutes allocated?
So, I looked at some data, and had to make some assumptions around "that can make a 3". I looked at all teams that had a 12 seed or better in this year's tournament (which excluded smaller conference automatic qualifiers, since we're not really in competition with them for a bid), and looked at how many players on their team attempted at least 2.5 threes per game. Then I bucketed that into how many of those shot more than 30%, 35%, and 40%.
For comparison, Rutgers had 4 players this year that attempted 2.5 threes per game. 3 shot better than 30%, and 0 shot better than 35%.
Of the 50 teams receiving a 12 seed or better:
- All but one (Purdue) had at least 3 players attempt 2.5 or more threes per game
- 6 teams had just 2 players that shot at least 30% (Duke, UNC, Houston, Cincy, Minnesota, Purdue), but on 4 of these teams one of those players shot over 40% (UNC, Cincy, Minnesota, Pudue)
- 23 of the 50 teams had fewer than 3 players shoot at least 35%. 5 teams had just 1 (VCU, Oklahoma, Florida, Minnesota, ASU), but on 2 of those teams that player shot over 40% (Minnesota, ASU). 3 teams had 0 players shoot at least 35% (Duke, FSU, LSU)
- 31 of the 50 teams had at least one player shoot at least 40%
- On average across the 50 teams, they had: 4.1 players attempt 2.5 or more per game, 3.8 who did so and shot at least 30%, 2.5 who shot at least 35%, and 0.9 that shot at least 40%.
It seems as though we need two guys to hit at 35% or better to "keep up with the tournament Joneses" so to speak. Gauging on last season, Harper and McConnell seem like the two best bets (and possibly Baker if he can play off-ball more).
Looking last year...very rough...at b1G
Purdue played mostly 3
Minnesota mostly 3 (cant count Murphy)
MSU 3 or 4
Wisc 3 or 4
Michigan 5
Everyone else 4
Purdue played mostly 3
Minnesota mostly 3 (cant count Murphy)
MSU 3 or 4
Wisc 3 or 4
Michigan 5
Everyone else 4
I firmly stand behind that then and now ...playing a 9 to 10 man rotation. Just isn’t enough minutes to develop continuity and cohesion on the court
8 guys is the number in the rotation
Number 9 gets their minutes when a 1,2, 3 is in foul trouble and gets their minutes while someone needs to sit with fouls
Nunbwe 10 gets their minutes when a 4 or 5 is in foul trouble and gets their minutes while someone needs to sit with fouls
Playing the best and being fair to the rest
That I couldn't tell you. Just looked at 3PA and 3P% across those 50 teams, not total minutes or attempts per 40 min. I'm sure there were 3P specialist guys who averaged 2.5 attempts in fewer than 15 min. Some teams (Auburn, Oregon, NM St, Villanova) even had 6 guys average at least 2.5 attempts per game, who obviously couldn't all be on the floor together - but very likely always had at least 3 on the floor together.
Next year, we could have several guys in that 35% range:
McConnell - Can really play the 1, 2, or 3 spots. Once he got going in the latter half of the year (starting in February), he was 13/28 for .464 on 2.54 attempts/game in 22.2 min. If he can continue his late season form into his sophomore season, he could be the best three point shooter on the team.
Harper - Can play the 3 or 4. Once he solidified his starting position on 1/9, he went 22/62 for .355 on 3.6 attempts/game in 25.1 min.
Baker - Can play the 1 or 2. He's a career .350 shooter over two seasons on 5.0 attempts, but was .361 as a freshman playing more off the ball and .341 as a sophomore running the point. If he can see more time off the ball this year, he will probably see his numbers go up a bit.
Yeboah - Can play the 3 or 4. He's a career .335 shooter on 5.3 attempts per game. Not sure what happened to him as the season wore on last year, though, as his numbers really dropped off (just .273 in conference play). He had a stretch of 9 games from 1/9 to 2/16 where he shot 14/62 for .226 on 6.9 attempts per game. Possible that teams just clamped down on him beyond the arc? Might not have that problem at Rutgers, where he likely wouldn't be the primary scoring option. He shot .355 as a RS soph and .341 as a RS freshman.
Omoruyi - Can play the 4 or 5. Before reinjuring his knee against Ohio State, he'd introduced a perimeter shot to his game. He went 12/33 (.363) on 2.5 attempts per game in 32.2 min over the first 13 games of the season... then went out early against Ohio State without an attempt. After he came back, he clearly had less lift in that leg, and his outside shot fell apart. He was just 2/12 the rest of the way over the last 14 games, for .167 on 0.9 attempts per game in 27.9 min. Can he regain that outside shot as a healthy senior?
I'd think we'd always have at least 2, and usually 3 of this group on the floor at one time. We'll also have Young (playing the 1/2) likely in the 32-35% range putting up a lot of attempts per minute on the floor. And also Kiss shooting around 30% in limited minutes.
The only guys we'll have on the floor who are not three point threats will be Mathis, Johnson, Carter, and Doucoure... with the jury out on what Mulcahy will bring.
So, given that, we could have pretty strong perimeter threats with lineups with Baker/McConnell or Baker/Young at the two primary guard spots, with a combination of Harper/Yeboah/Omoruyi at the 3/4, and still keep Johnson at the 5. With Mathis or Mulcahy in the game, we'd still potentially have 3 outside threats.
In late-game situations where we need a three, we could go with McConnell/Baker/Harper/Yeboah/Omoruyi and have everyone be a threat.
McConnell - Can really play the 1, 2, or 3 spots. Once he got going in the latter half of the year (starting in February), he was 13/28 for .464 on 2.54 attempts/game in 22.2 min. If he can continue his late season form into his sophomore season, he could be the best three point shooter on the team.
Harper - Can play the 3 or 4. Once he solidified his starting position on 1/9, he went 22/62 for .355 on 3.6 attempts/game in 25.1 min.
Baker - Can play the 1 or 2. He's a career .350 shooter over two seasons on 5.0 attempts, but was .361 as a freshman playing more off the ball and .341 as a sophomore running the point. If he can see more time off the ball this year, he will probably see his numbers go up a bit.
Yeboah - Can play the 3 or 4. He's a career .335 shooter on 5.3 attempts per game. Not sure what happened to him as the season wore on last year, though, as his numbers really dropped off (just .273 in conference play). He had a stretch of 9 games from 1/9 to 2/16 where he shot 14/62 for .226 on 6.9 attempts per game. Possible that teams just clamped down on him beyond the arc? Might not have that problem at Rutgers, where he likely wouldn't be the primary scoring option. He shot .355 as a RS soph and .341 as a RS freshman.
Omoruyi - Can play the 4 or 5. Before reinjuring his knee against Ohio State, he'd introduced a perimeter shot to his game. He went 12/33 (.363) on 2.5 attempts per game in 32.2 min over the first 13 games of the season... then went out early against Ohio State without an attempt. After he came back, he clearly had less lift in that leg, and his outside shot fell apart. He was just 2/12 the rest of the way over the last 14 games, for .167 on 0.9 attempts per game in 27.9 min. Can he regain that outside shot as a healthy senior?
I'd think we'd always have at least 2, and usually 3 of this group on the floor at one time. We'll also have Young (playing the 1/2) likely in the 32-35% range putting up a lot of attempts per minute on the floor. And also Kiss shooting around 30% in limited minutes.
The only guys we'll have on the floor who are not three point threats will be Mathis, Johnson, Carter, and Doucoure... with the jury out on what Mulcahy will bring.
So, given that, we could have pretty strong perimeter threats with lineups with Baker/McConnell or Baker/Young at the two primary guard spots, with a combination of Harper/Yeboah/Omoruyi at the 3/4, and still keep Johnson at the 5. With Mathis or Mulcahy in the game, we'd still potentially have 3 outside threats.
In late-game situations where we need a three, we could go with McConnell/Baker/Harper/Yeboah/Omoruyi and have everyone be a threat.
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Mathis can definitely be a 3pt threat. No reason to think he can’t hit 33+% the rest of his career.
Is i possible that he jumps up dramatically to 33% this season and the rest of his career? Sure - but that would be a huge leap forward. So far, his strengths have been transition and dribble penetration, and he hasn't had much success beyond the arc.
According to GRF we didn't have Young Mulcahy or Yeboah.
Not that your point is VERY well taken
He has to improve for us to move the needle offensively........with him on the court
He shot 28% down the stretch in B1G games. Consider Corey Sanders who shot like 33% as a freshman then dipped majorly his last two years. Guys fluctuate, and I guarantee Mathis is working on his shot so that he retains a green light from coach to shoot it.
I know you're speaking generally here, but I think one other true "big" will need to get meaningful minutes (10+ mpg). I think Myles gets about 24 mpg and Eugene gets 28 mpg (52 out of 80 total), so that leaves 28 minutes for the C/PF spots. I'm sure Yeboah will play 20 mpg, but some of that will be at the SF spot, so let's say he plays 16 mpg as one of the "bigs." That still leaves 12 mpg for somebody else - probably a combination of Carter and Duke.
Guys definitely fluctuate, but it's hard to predict. I'm sure Mathis' percentage will go up this coming year, but I don't know to what - or if he'll manage to get over 30%. Young and Williams both managed to jump up from freshman to sophomore year from the low 20% range into the low 30% range, and hopefully he will too.
Looking at prior shooters on the banks who put up a lot of shots as freshmen (here or elsewhere), with their freshman and sophomore averages (sorted by freshman average). Interestingly, everyone who shot worse than .315 as a freshman improved as a sophomore - while everyone who shot better than .350 as a freshman regressed below that mark as a sophomore.
Griffin - .222 (.281)
Young - .227 (.323)
Williams - .240 (.316)
N Johnson - .279 (.339)
Rosario - .302 (.328)
Thiam - .303 (.364)
Moore - .308 (.330)
Shields - .314 (.393)
Sanders - .315 (.266)
Chandler - .318 (.262)
Seagears - .333 (.381)
Mack - .338 (.462)
Coburn - .353 (.182)
Farmer - .381 (.322)
Inman - .389 (.319)
Carter - .353 (.320)
Baker - .361 (.341)
Webb - .380 (.271)
Grier - .408 (.322)
Douby - .426 (.338)
If that is the case Caleb, Paul or someone not named Kiss is OUT of the rotation.
I think Carter gets way, way more minutes. These rankings also would have us seventh in the Big 10. I think we're better than that.
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Eugene's injury had nothing to do with his 3 point shooting. I believe he hit 6 of his first 7 vs FDU and Drexel in the 1st 2 games of the year and trailed off dramatically after that. Subtracting those 2 games is why I believe he has to be the player that moves the ball better or makes a quicker decision to take those top of the key 3s.
I don't see any real reason why he has to play more than 24 minutes a game with Yeboah and Harper as more complete offensive players.
The minutes breakdown should be to reduce the emphasis of having to rely on Eugene and Baker to be the leaders in touches and shot attempts.
The reason why our 3 point shooting percentages look comparable to a lot of the better teams, is strictly the removal of Sanders,.Candido Sa, Deshawn Freeman and Mike Williams from the equation from 2018 to 2019 seasons, while adding just better shooters in McConnell, Kiss (yes even Kiss shot better than most of the shooters on the 2018 roster), Mathis and Harper. Harper and Mathis had very cold streaks in the OOC of 2-20+ for Harper and 1-20+ for Mathis over a few game stretch in the OOC. Those percentages increased a lot more in January and beyond, so I feel comfortable 30 to 35% is reasonable for both next year.
What ultimately will decide the potential of making the NCAAS isn't shooting percentages....it's reducing the number of turnovers from over 13 per game to something around 11.
While that seems like a small number, Geo and Eugene combined for 5.5 turnovers per game, which is a very high number if they're your highest usage guys and asking them to be your best 3 point shooters.
I feel like Baker will be more effective without averaging 34 minutes a game and so will Eugene coming down from 29 minutes per game to around 24. Reducing the minutes should reduce the turnover numbers.
The finale vs Nebraska was 23....at Purdue was 19...at Minnesota was 16.......home to Norrhwestern was 13 or 14.
The games RU surprised or made strides, they took care of the ball and made some 3s.
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Even subtracting those two games (which is flawed, since you could subtract the two best games from any player and make their stats look much worse), he went 6/26 over 11 games (.231 for 2.4 attempts per game) and 2/12 over the 14 when he came back (.164 for 0.9 attempts per game). His perimeter attempts dropped by more than 60%.
If you ignore the two best games from other players:
McConnell drops from .357 to .304
Baker drops from .341 to .329
Harper drops from .343 in conference to .286
Kiss drops from .302 to .267
So, just looking at this and trying to break out roughly by position...
5: With Johnson and Carter only seeing 20 min, this would mean the lion's share of Omoruyi's minutes would be at center, leaving just 9 min/g at PF.
4: 31 minutes split between Yeboah and Harper.... which mean both would spend the majority of both of their minutes at the 4 and leave only 15 min total spent at the 3 between them.
3: With 25 min up for grabs at the 3 after Yeboah/Harper's minutes are used up, it's looking like this would be where we'd see Kiss/Mathis primarily. Using up Kiss' minutes here, that'd leave 17 of Mathis' 26 minutes as the third guard, and essentially make him our starting SF.
1/2: They're banking on these spots being anchored by Baker/Young for 58 of the 80 available minutes. McConnell and his outside shooting would be limited to 13 min, and Mathis would pick up the other 9 min at SG.
It would make our starting (or at least most minutes) rotation at: Young/Baker/Mathis/Harper/Omoruyi.... which is light on 3P shooting.
Really have a hard time seeing that rotation - I don't see Omoruyi being our starting center and getting the most minutes there. It also entirely leaves out Mulcahy and Doucoure.
I don't think a lot of work went in to their analysis. HOWEVER.....giving 15 or so minutes to Mulcahy and slightly trimming those to the other guys is what i see happening.
Question for those that remember....
When Girogi from Illinois killed us in that OT loss who did we try to guard him. I saw that Shaq+ Shaq+ Myles played 49 minutes AND Eugene was in foul trouble. Did anyone end up stopping the bleeding? I forget.
http://www.barttorvik.com/box.php?muid=RutgersIllinois2-9&year=2019
When Girogi from Illinois killed us in that OT loss who did we try to guard him. I saw that Shaq+ Shaq+ Myles played 49 minutes AND Eugene was in foul trouble. Did anyone end up stopping the bleeding? I forget.
http://www.barttorvik.com/box.php?muid=RutgersIllinois2-9&year=2019
Omoruyi was in foul trouble, but still played 34 min. We ended up going small and playing him at center, too, with Doorson/Johnson only seeing 33 of 45 total minutes at the 5 spot. Carter didn't really play much center last year, if I remember, and was used almost exclusively as a PF backup to Omoruyi.
PG: Baker 31, McConnell 14
SG: Mathis 29, McConnell 16
SF: Harper 32, Mathis 12, Kiss 1
PF: Omoruyi 22, Carter 16, Harper 7
C: Doorson 17, Johnson 16, Omoruyi 12
From bac's postgame analysis: "Johnson hit some back to back shots in the run in the first half that ended up giving RU the lead but unfortunately didnt take a shot in the 2nd half with more Eugene and Carter in the game. Tough call there, you have to give Gene the minutes but I am not so sure that Myles might have given more production. Gene struggled today, he got those two fouls in the first half, 0 points and only ended up with 6 although he had 11 boards. He was frustrated on both ends and he couldnt really defend Georgi, he had plenty of company..neither could Carter nor could Doorson."
So it seemed like we were playing Carter/Omoruyi at the 4/5 for stretches without Johnson, and that we at least threw Omoruyi, Carter, and Doorson at Giorgi. I remember that there was a very loose whistle on both sides in that game with a lot of contact going uncalled, and Giorgi capitalized on getting a lot of noncalls on contact that allowed him to stay on the floor for a career shooting night.
Hawk, agree we have to cut down on turnovers, but you really think 2 less TO's a game is the biggest difference maker between making and not making the tourney?
Last year even when Doucoure was healthy (as far as we know) he was going against Luke Nathan in the 1-on-1 drills and only entering blowout games at the very end.
Interesting that everyone is talking about shooting the 3, while Golden State has depended less on the 3 this season. Only middle of the league in 3-point attempts. Plus they are considering moving the college 3-point line out further to open up the floor. Those pesky analytics. Like the ones that tell you not to punt on 4th down.
TL
TL
Golden State was 8th in the NBA in 3PA this year with 2824. That same number would have been 3rd in 2018, 2nd in 2017, and 1st in 2016 (beating their own league leading mark by nearly 300). 38.4% of their shot attempts this season have been from behind the arc... which is their highest rate ever.
It's not that they're depending less on the 3 this season, it's that the rest of the league has caught up to them in depending more on the three.
watched 5 minutes of Toronto and Milwaukee game a few nights ago....saw at least 10 stupid 3 point attempts...not basketball.
game which was once beautiful is ugly.
NBA is a joke. dont compare Rutgers to Golden State
game which was once beautiful is ugly.
NBA is a joke. dont compare Rutgers to Golden State
Why does anyone have to be out of the rotation? That said I think the player whose minutes take the biggest drop is Mathis.
Totally agree - 15 mpg is absurd for him. I personally think five mpg for Carter is way low also. I think his defense will improve in his second year and he will be a force.
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