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GAME 19 Purdue: Can't ask for much more

Let me ask a question. We have a perfect world where your ideal lineup can play 40 minutes and not get tired. There are 70 possessions and you are playing Penn State at home.

You have 2 lineups
A. Simpson awill hyatt mag cliff
B. Simpson gavin hyatt mag cliff

Lets say A in the 70 possessions….
Scores 70
Allows 69

How about lineup B
How much extra points do you expect scored
How many extra points allowed

Assume the same 70 possessions
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
I think A is our optimal lineup on most nights against most teams
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Maybe. But see my post on Davis development since the 3rd game. He’s not as high a volume shooter as Simpson but overall he’s shooting at a much higher percentage. I get maybe it’s not fair to dismiss just those 3 games and keep Simpson’s worst games but again - they were his first 3 collegiate career games so I see some statistical meaning in the improvement since then.

Simpson plays a little more controlled (more experience and is probably a bit more confident with ball handling). He has a better outside shot but other than that I see Davis as possibly having more upside on both sides (yes, even in the short term).
 
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Greene Rice FIG said:
Let me ask a question. We have a perfect world where your ideal lineup can play 40 minutes and not get tired. There are 70 possessions and you are playing Penn State at home.

You have 2 lineups
A. Simpson awill hyatt mag cliff
B. Simpson gavin hyatt mag cliff

Lets say A in the 70 possessions….
Scores 70
Allows 69

How about lineup B
How much extra points do you expect scored
How many extra points allowed

Assume the same 70 possessions
Click to expand...

But is Lineup A actually a net positive?
Is there any basis for those numbers?

Why not say Lineup A scores 68 but gives up 69?
 
NickRU714 said:
But is Lineup A actually a net positive?
Is there any basis for those numbers?

Why not say Lineup A scores 68 but gives up 69?
Click to expand...
On most B1G nights no?
My point is adding Gavin should increase offense, however I believe he will hurt defense more.

The Purdue game was the 1st game against major opposition where his defense didn't cause us to give up more points.

Not to be too simplistic.....going forward Gavin needs to help on offense more than he is hurting on D. For him to do that eventually he is going to need to have his effective FG% over 50%. I realize that isn't the only component, but it is a big one. Scoring 16 points on 22 shots probably isn't going to have a positive impact on our offense.
 
bethlehemfan said:
That one was a bad call but a clever play by loyer. AW did not touch him other than the hip after loyer leaned into him and flopped. Clever play and the ref fell for it.
Click to expand...

bac2therac said:
sorry thats a foul, just a bad decision by Austin that had no bearing on the shot.

i thought we had a few critical mistakes and turnovers in those last 4-5 minutes that contributed to doing us in. Needed to play much better in those moments to pull out a win over such a veteran Purdue team
Click to expand...

bethlehemfan said:
Just watched it again and I agree with you. I
missed that one.
Click to expand...
It's definitely a foul.

HOT TAKE: fouls that occur AFTER shots like that should not be three shot fouls even if the shot is a three pointer. I might even say they should be on the floor but that might be too extreme.
 
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Greene Rice FIG said:
Let me ask a question. We have a perfect world where your ideal lineup can play 40 minutes and not get tired. There are 70 possessions and you are playing Penn State at home.

You have 2 lineups
A. Simpson awill hyatt mag cliff
B. Simpson gavin hyatt mag cliff

Lets say A in the 70 possessions….
Scores 70
Allows 69

How about lineup B
How much extra points do you expect scored
How many extra points allowed

Assume the same 70 possessions
Click to expand...
I mean if you're telling me for sure that lineup A wins the game I don't need to spend much time thinking about lineup B 😛
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
On most B1G nights no?
My point is adding Gavin should increase offense, however I believe he will hurt defense more.

The Purdue game was the 1st game against major opposition where his defense didn't cause us to give up more points.

Not to be too simplistic.....going forward Gavin needs to help on offense more than he is hurting on D. For him to do that eventually he is going to need to have his effective FG% over 50%. I realize that isn't the only component, but it is a big one. Scoring 16 points on 22 shots probably isn't going to have a positive impact on our offense.
Click to expand...

All of this is true. The only thing it fails to account for is the intangible component which is the psychological impact that extended scoring drought have on all aspects of the game (including defense). It’s hard to maintain intensity on that end when your team fails to put the ball in the basket over and over again.

All that said, despite playing better the last 2 games, Gavin’s shooting percentage is still worse than everyone on the team except Derek so your example is also assuming he would be stepping up and suddenly playing the way his recruiting ranking projected he would. That’s still obviously a big if.
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
50% of the game is defense
Click to expand...
I might go even further to say defense is like, 52%.

When a defender picks the pocket of the ball handler and takes it in for a bucket, that’s like a defensive score, kinda like a pick-6 in football.
 
PSAL_Hoops said:
All of this is true. The only thing it fails to account for is the intangible component which is the psychological impact that extended scoring drought have on all aspects of the game (including defense). It’s hard to maintain intensity on that end when your team fails to put the ball in the basket over and over again.

All that said, despite playing better the last 2 games, Gavin’s shooting percentage is still worse than everyone on the team except Derek so your example is also assuming he would be stepping up and suddenly playing the way his recruiting ranking projected he would. That’s still obviously a big if.
Click to expand...
Paragraph 1 is so true. I do subscribe to the thought that offense efficiency and defensive efficiency have a little correlation.

Paragraph 2.....I feel confident that given the minutes I do think gavin would be (or close to being) the offensive player that we expected. I believe your lineup has a better chance of bringing that out.
 
BillyC80 said:
I might go even further to say defense is like, 52%.

When a defender picks the pocket of the ball handler and takes it in for a bucket, that’s like a defensive score, kinda like a pick-6 in football.
Click to expand...
can I have 53%?

I think certain players can impact defense more than anyone can impact offense. Cliff and '2023-24 Gavin are examples
 
BillyC80 said:
I might go even further to say defense is like, 52%.

When a defender picks the pocket of the ball handler and takes it in for a bucket, that’s like a defensive score, kinda like a pick-6 in football.
Click to expand...

Greene Rice FIG said:
can I have 53%?

I think certain players can impact defense more than anyone can impact offense. Cliff and '2023-24 Gavin are examples
Click to expand...
This goes the other way too though, scoring helps you set up your defense and turnovers and misses give the opponent easier transition opportunities.
 
fluoxetine said:
This goes the other way too though, scoring helps you set up your defense and turnovers and misses give the opponent easier transition opportunities.
Click to expand...
1) True, but if your defense is lousy you won’t get as many pick sixes, even if your D had a chance to set up.
2) If your miss is due to the opponent’s defense, there again the D was the catalyst for the fast break.

So my caveat would be: ‘Good D’ is more like 52% (or 53% in FIG terms) of the game for good/elite defensive teams. It’s the only explanation for how Steve Pikiell’s teams have over-achieved with mostly under-recruited, mediocre offensive players for almost his entire time on the banks.
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
On most B1G nights no?
My point is adding Gavin should increase offense, however I believe he will hurt defense more.

The Purdue game was the 1st game against major opposition where his defense didn't cause us to give up more points.

Not to be too simplistic.....going forward Gavin needs to help on offense more than he is hurting on D. For him to do that eventually he is going to need to have his effective FG% over 50%. I realize that isn't the only component, but it is a big one. Scoring 16 points on 22 shots probably isn't going to have a positive impact on our offense.
Click to expand...
Not I get it Green you are obsessed with defense because we have had some of the best defensive players in the country but you are ignoring how bad our offense has been this year and although our defense is still good but not elite , the reason we are losing is inconsistent bad offense.
Up until the last game , I did not see the other things that one can do to help a team from Gavin . Not cutting hard , not passing well or making high school passes still , not rebounding on either the offensive or defensive glass , not driving hard and instead standing in the corner , and then not making any shots let alone threes we desparately need.
But Sunday maybe the light went off, because we saw a confident , hustling , hard driving , rebound crasher , help defender , aggressive cutter , and some one who hit some shots and had a missed 3 go in and out and a missed 3 left short from the top of the key that if they went down we upset # 2 Purdue.

We have seen Austin ‘s sample size and I love his driving to the hoop hard and his defense although he was careless with his defense on Sunday with all his fouls especially the foul on Loyer which was a killer down 3 with3:28 to go , but we are not seeing enough offense out of Austin. Granted our guards Derek , JMike and Noah have been so inconsistent game to game and have failed to feed Cliff repeatedly , but we need more offense desparately. Gavin is the one or Mag is the one that can give us that extra 10-12 points a game. Mag going 0 fer the last 2 games hurt and especially so against Purdue but Gavin going for 15 might be the difference between wins and losses the rest of the year. Playing Hyatt and Gavin together with Gavin even playing the 2 , gives us the best shot to hit more threes that we desperately need. None of the point guards deserve extra minutes now. Sprinkle in Austin with Gavin and let Austin play the 3 and Gavin the 2 along with Hyatt and Cliff or Gavin , point guard , with Mag , Hyatt and Cliff. These are the guys to get extended minutes to get us the extra offense we need. Gavin has improved slightly not a lot on defense but this is when Derek started asserting himself as a freshman last year , which we desperately needed after Mag went down , and Gavin if I read his body language and Pike ‘s practice comments correctly , he finally has confidence and a smile on his face. It is time for more offense because 19 games is enough of a sample size to conclude we do not have enough.
 
1. I am obsessed with D. That isn't a secret
2. I also am fully aware how putrid we are offensively. We can be the 20xx-xx Bulls with Pippen and Jordan on D and still lose.
3. When we went on the run vs. Purdue in the 2nd half, led by Gavin who was on the floor? Who actually played the role of the primary point guard? It was Austin Williams

Although not born in Missouri I need Gavin to show me tomorrow that he can hold his own defensively and not be a flaming liability on D. When he is a flaming liability it requires him to be a NBA JAM (think Mike Iuzzolino when on fire) like player on offense to help us.
 
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fluoxetine said:
This goes the other way too though, scoring helps you set up your defense and turnovers and misses give the opponent easier transition opportunities.
Click to expand...

Yes to the first part. If your D strength comes in the press, not scoring is a limiting factor for sure.

On the second part, I also agree with you though I understand the context of the point Green was making (considering the type of player Gavin is). Obviously - it’s not universally true. when Davidson lost Steph Curry that was a massive hit to their offense… I’d secondarily argue that losing a true PG can be a huge loss too. Going with the same team/example - Davidson dropped off significantly in Steph’s last year when their PG from the 07-08 run graduated despite Curry putting up big numbers as a senior shifting to point.
 
Greene Rice FIG said:
1. I am obsessed with D. That isn't a secret
2. I also am fully aware how putrid we are offensively. We can be the 20xx-xx Bulls with Pippen and Jordan on D and still lose.
3. When we went on the run vs. Purdue in the 2nd half, led by Gavin who was on the floor? Who actually played the role of the primary point guard? It was Austin Williams

Although not born in Missouri I need Gavin to show me tomorrow that he can hold his own defensively and not be a flaming liability on D. When he is a flaming liability it requires him to be a NBA JAM (think Mike Iuzzolino when on fire) like player on offense to help us.
Click to expand...
He was not a flaming liability on defense. on Sunday. He wasn’t the point guard that got stripped by Jones in the first half , nor the point guard that was stripped by Jones in the second half that led to a Smith 3 , nor was he the guy that unbounded to Jones for a layup.
Go watch the second half again , Gavin was engaged , played team defense covering Edey until Cliff got back , up on Loyer and pushing him around , and the most engaged he was all year.
I have been one of Gavin ‘s biggest critics for all the other things he was not doing besides not shooting well , like rebounding , passing better , cutting harder , playing better team defense , using his height to drive and hit 2’s. Sunday was different. Sorry if you missed it. We need more offense to win. Either the 4 guards that have been missing in action to give us offense show up , Mag goes wild and starts scoring 15 a game , the only other option is Gavin starting to click to get us that extra 10-12 points a game. In the era of the 3 point shot , it shouldn’t be this difficult.
 
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He was not a flaming liability on D in the 2nd half.....the reason I am not convinced we have a different Gavin on D is Purdue was trying to do what Purdue does and get the ball to edey. Most other teams are going to tailor their gameplan to the weaknesses of their opponent. gavin will be tested tomorrow. They will make him move off the ball and exploit his ability to simultaneously see the ball and his man.
 
Gavin's potential is EXACTLY what we need on offense. Our offense again is putrid.

We need Gavin having the impact to raise our PPP on O by .1 without denting it .11 on D
 
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Greene Rice FIG said:
He was not a flaming liability on D in the 2nd half.....the reason I am not convinced we have a different Gavin on D is Purdue was trying to do what Purdue does and get the ball to edey. Most other teams are going to tailor their gameplan to the weaknesses of their opponent. gavin will be tested tomorrow. They will make him move off the ball and exploit his ability to simultaneously see the ball and his man.
Click to expand...
He was doing that in the second half. Go watch the tape. It wasn’t just because they were getting the ball to Edey. He was in Loyer’s shorts and playing help defense too. First time all year the light bulb went off. He was not the one who fouled Loyer at the crucial part of the game was he ?

For the first time all year , Gavin did not look lost , played with confidence , attacked the glass , played help defense , and stayed with his man. I am hopeful that this game marks the change. He is still going to get beat by quicker guards or forwards but if can limit those blunders and crash the glass and hit some shots , we had a better chance to win games.
 
bac2therac said:
we arent beaten Penn State tomorrow by playing a pace in the 50s
Click to expand...

I mean look - it really depends on who and how we’re pushing (or slowing) the pace. With Cliff finally snapping out of his funk I feel like should be able to play a more efficient half court game now.

The bar is very low to improve efficiency and it seems more likely to me that we do it with better halfcourt decisions than with the guards pushing pace - I just don’t see us suddenly starting to make layups we’ve missed all year. Cliff is the one starting to finally finish so I’d like to see us leverage that and bump up his usage.

There are only 25 teams in the whole dang country shooting 40.3% or worse from the field. Rutgers is obviously one of them. We have not lost a game yet when we’ve shot at a higher percentage than this. Is it really asking that much to expect them to perform better than the FG% average of the bottom 25 of all D1 team? We are currently making a lower percentage of our shots than all but 6 D1 schools.
 
Gavin played better D second half for sure. It's TBD if that carries over I think is FIG's point

Especially if the gameplan in other games is to attack Gavin. Purdue obviously wants to feed Edey as their focal point
 
Austin Williams moves the ball. He drives and kicks or drives and looks to get the big men the ball. He finishes better at the rim than the other guards. He drives under control

I'd like to see Williams and J Mike starting backcourt
 
Scangg said:
Gavin played better D second half for sure. It's TBD if that carries over I think is FIG's point

Especially if the gameplan in other games is to attack Gavin. Purdue obviously wants to feed Edey as their focal point
Click to expand...
We are 10-12 more points on offense from having a few more wins ( Ohio State , Purdue , Michigan State ). I saw more out of Gavin on Sunday than all the prior games all year combined. I am not sure if you were there live because I watched everything Gavin was doing on ball and off ball. It was night and day. I am hopeful the light bulb and the confidence kicked in , like it did for Derek last year. The defensive lapse by Gavin did not occur in the second half. That was huge progress. It is really hard to get a player’s confidence up especially after struggling but my sense from Sunday is Gavin’s confidence is the best it has been all year. We need him and Mag offensively and crashing the boards desparately.
 
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Scangg said:
Austin Williams moves the ball. He drives and kicks or drives and looks to get the big men the ball. He finishes better at the rim than the other guards. He drives under control

I'd like to see Williams and J Mike starting backcourt
Click to expand...
Although with the exception of 1 or 2 games , Austin has not given you enough offensively or defensively ( fouled out or in foul trouble all game ) in most of the games. He definitely need his minutes but we need more offensively at this point.
 
goru7 said:
We are 10-12 more points on offense from having a few more wins ( Ohio State , Purdue , Michigan State ). I saw more out of Gavin on Sunday than all the prior games all year combined. I am not sure if you were there live because I watched everything Gavin was doing on ball and off ball. It was night and day. I am hopeful the light bulb and the confidence kicked in , like it did for Derek last year. The defensive lapse by Gavin did not occur in the second half. That was huge progress. It is really hard to get a player’s confidence up especially after struggling but my sense from Sunday is Gavin’s confidence is the best it has been all year. We need him and Mag offensively and crashing the boards desparately.
Click to expand...
10-12 points (call it 11 points) per game would our offensive efficiency from #258 to #110ish. That's a gigantic difference and quite frankly is not in the cards.
 
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fluoxetine said:
10-12 points (call it 11 points) per game would our offensive efficiency from #258 to #110ish. That's a gigantic difference and quite frankly is not in the cards.
Click to expand...
How many games this year have we gotten a goose egg from a player we expected double digits from. Let me see Cliff , Mag , Noah , Derek , JMike , Gavin . Prior to the games playing out I could not envision Cliff , Mag , Derek , Gavin or Noah having a goose egg game or multiple goose egg games. This has been a strange year and regression to the mean must be in our future. How many players did you see scoring zero in multiple games ?
 
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