ADVERTISEMENT

Here's what a 12 team CFB Playoff would look like today....

I like reserving the byes to champions over runner ups, but would allow an independent to earn one too. It is similar to NFL and MLB where division winners get home field advantage over wild card teams with better records.

I also like seeing games on campus to start the playoffs.

No issue with reserving a spot for a G5 champion.

But this will kill some of the bowl appeal, not restore it.
I don't think independents like ND can get a bye as it stands. The highest seed they can get is a 5 seed.

Bowl games were already losing appeal and that's even the big ones. Players were sitting out of bowl games, even NY6 ones. I'd like to think that won't happen in the playoffs but who knows, we'll see.

edit: I hope some day in the future we get the 2nd round at campus sites too. A lot of comments from ADs and commissioners speaking positively about it lately so it might come fruition sooner or later. It'll increase the odds of one my holy grails of CFB. Southern (and I guess western) teams coming to play in the cold. Gene Smith has changed his tune as of late. He used to mention liking the option of moving games offsite to more "hygienic" location (it still might be an option for teams if they want) but now he's spoken more positively about playing playoff games on campus.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: tomatocan
I follow many of these reporters for news but I didn't see anything definitive from anyone that it was going to start at 16. The most I saw was 16 is gaining steam but didn't mean for sure it was going to happen and still other alternatives like 8 or 12 as possible. Same for playoff expansion. I saw most thinking it would expand easily but then Texas/OU to the SEC happened and that fouled things up for a bit but no one ever said guaranteed 2023 or any year for that matter. Regardless, it doesn't matter. If you don't like the source, don't read it.

As to the forgetting about the SEC, that's not related to a 12 team playoff or us being 12-1 etc..You're referring to another poster in a different reply to you. It's not the conversation between us.

This is your reply to me I was responding to:

"Michigan is in. They won't fall far if they lose to OSU. Pac12 gets 1 team, ACC 1 team."



We were talking about Michigan's weak OOC this year (4 team playoff) and how I mentioned cancelling the UCLA game this year might hurt Michigan in the case that they lose to OSU. You said Michigan is in they won't fall far if they lose to OSU. So that means OSU and Michigan both get into this year's 4 team playoff by that statement. You also said 1 PAC12 and 1 ACC teams gets in. So that's 4 teams right there but it leaves out the SEC which is why I said you forgot the SEC.

Then I gave a possible scenario where Michigan has a chance to get in with a loss. It doesn't mean it's going to happen or is any sort of prediction of what will happen. 1 team is from the SEC. 1 team is OSU. 1 team is either USC/ACC/B12 to leave 1 spot open for a Michigan or Tenn. In that potential scenario I think Tenn will have the edge because Michigan's best win will be at home against PSU and Tenn's wins will be on the road at LSU and a win against Alabama.
My bad I was replying to another post. As for this year. It's either OSU or Michigan in the playoffs. Who wins next week and the Big Ten. If either lose the Big Ten Championship who knows what happens as that would be a huge upset.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rutgersguy1
I don't like it at all. It renders the regular season (relatively speaking) irrelevant. Conference championship games won't often matter as both teams ended up loving on, Michigan OSU doesnt matter, etc.

I know people will disagree citing the bye and home game, and I get that, but doesn't compare to your season being over or being out of it like does today.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mufasa94
12 teams. P5 conference champs should be auto qualified and the top 4 should be conference champs. The top ranked G5 conference champ should be in wherever they are ranked or 12 seed if not. Selection committee picks the rest. Prioritizing conference champs makes the regular season more meaningful. Say Ohio State wins Big10 and champ game. A 1 loss Michigan would have an additional game to play. A 1 loss team that doesn't pay for should not get an easier path.
 
How can you institute a hard cap of 3 and take 16? Your obviously using inferior teams and skipping over higher ranked teams just because the conference already might have 3. You don’t think that’s stupid? Never happening sir
First off.. that is not what I said. 3 in a 16 team playoff. I literally said "Go to 16 with no byes if you want 4." And, somehow, you missed that in what was a very short message.

No, a hard cap of 3 for 12 is not stupid.

They do something similar in basketball and have done so for many years. The expansion SHOULD be geared toward guaranteeing the conferences have a fair shot and proving that the rankings are legitimate.

The 2 team MNC game saw an all-SEC game or two. That was bogus. Those teams had played each other and it made the in-season result(s) worthless. Prior to a 2-team MNC game, the bowl system saw teams other than number 1 and 2 ranked teams emerge with MNC titles based on how they did in their bowl games vs what opponent. But that could never happen in a 2-team MNC game. Though we have seen split polls with ties where both, I think, TCU and UCF claimed an MNC. Perhaps Utah as well... and Auburn.. because they all ended up undefeated.

We have seen arguments in the 4-team CFP that the SEC should have 3 slots. How ridiculous, how "stupid". If we kept going with that, eventually, we would have seen that. 4 of 12 would give a single conference too much chance to win a MNC. And it denies other conferences that same chance.

I could see the argument now: But a 12-team playoff allows the champions of all teh conferences to compete.. if those teams have a legit shot, then they should win their conference championship games and get in and prove it. But, ahh, why wasn't that standard applied to the 4 team CFP? Last year, Georgia would not be in because they lost the SEC championship game. But last years game rather supported the SEC claims as each SEC team won its semifinal rather easily. But that was not the case in the first-ever CFP where there was many complaints about Ohio State even getting in as many thought Baylor or TCU deserved it. But Ohio State would go on to win the CFP's MNC in that first year. If they had kept it to 2 teams, that would not have happened.

And this is why I do not like the 12-team format. No team should get a BYE. Every team wanting that CFP title should be forced to play the same number of games. The rankings system can skew who is seen as "earning" a BYE. So have no BYEs at all. If expanding to 16 is worthless as it adds poor teams with no shot.. then forcing teh top 4 teams to play said opponents is no risk to them and is more fair to the other 8 non-bye teams in the following game. Or just drop down to 8 team CFPO with a hard cap of 2 per conference max.

And, yes, I was for the Big Ten, Big 12 and PAC12 for going their own way with their own more FAIR playoff system and not including the SEC with their demands for unfair criteria.. like BYEs and no limits on how many conference teams can get in. It would garner less money, much flack from the pundits... but the result would have been a more fair playoff system that, eventually, the SEC would have to surrender to. The SEC grew more and more powerful and more and more demanding the way things have been and this system with no limits for a conference will just allow that to continue. While the game results are largely NOT random chance, there is some chance in it.. and giving the SEC 4 out of 12 because they demanded that be possible was, for me, too much of a concession. In the projection used in this tread, the ACC would have 1 chance in 12.
 
Last edited:
Just take the top 12 IMO.
But what really goes into deciding who is the Top 12? That's the problem. There are biases in every system, human or "computer', that determines the "Top 12".

The first-ever CFP proved that the previous "Top 2" was flawed, badly. As a team that was argued to be anywhere from 4 to 6 beat the 1 and 2 in consecutive games to win the first CFP title.

The same would be true with a "Top 12". Expansion is about giving more chance to others, especially, conference champions, where the ranking system might fail. And, right now, I look at the rankings and think it is being manipulated by SEC interests as the trend has been to rank as many SEC teams as possible as high as possible as early as possible making every SEC win or loss a question of great teams losing or beating great teams.. keeping those high rankings. While teams in other conferences have to battle their way up in the rankings.

Going with conference champions and hard limits (which they do not have) to the number of teams per conference might yield better rankings in the preseason and all season long, as everyone knows there is a limit to CFP participation later. The media people (and coaches) will still want to think they cover the top teams, affecting their votes and the media corps still have advertising to sell for games where ranked team plays ranked team... so financial interests will still matter.. but it might help.
 
But what really goes into deciding who is the Top 12? That's the problem. There are biases in every system, human or "computer', that determines the "Top 12".

The first-ever CFP proved that the previous "Top 2" was flawed, badly. As a team that was argued to be anywhere from 4 to 6 beat the 1 and 2 in consecutive games to win the first CFP title.

The same would be true with a "Top 12". Expansion is about giving more chance to others, especially, conference champions, where the ranking system might fail. And, right now, I look at the rankings and think it is being manipulated by SEC interests as the trend has been to rank as many SEC teams as possible as high as possible as early as possible making every SEC win or loss a question of great teams losing or beating great teams.. keeping those high rankings. While teams in other conferences have to battle their way up in the rankings.

Going with conference champions and hard limits (which they do not have) to the number of teams per conference might yield better rankings in the preseason and all season long, as everyone knows there is a limit to CFP participation later. The media people (and coaches) will still want to think they cover the top teams, affecting their votes and the media corps still have advertising to sell for games where ranked team plays ranked team... so financial interests will still matter.. but it might help.

If your problem is with the selection process then change that process.
No problem fixing the process and changing or getting rid of the Selection Committee.

No "fair system" is putting artifical caps on teams arbitrarily.
 
But what really goes into deciding who is the Top 12? That's the problem. There are biases in every system, human or "computer', that determines the "Top 12".

The first-ever CFP proved that the previous "Top 2" was flawed, badly. As a team that was argued to be anywhere from 4 to 6 beat the 1 and 2 in consecutive games to win the first CFP title.

The same would be true with a "Top 12". Expansion is about giving more chance to others, especially, conference champions, where the ranking system might fail.
Sticking the 23rd ranked team in there because they won the Sun USA conference isn't fixing any problems with rankings systems. Rankings systems (be they computers or human committees) are necessary for sports like this with extremely unbalanced schedules and huge systematic differences between groups of teams.

The expansion itself is the "solution". If you snub the "true" #2 team for the "true" #3 team in a 2 team playoff that's a huge issue. If you snub the "true" #12 for the "true" #14 it makes much less difference as all the teams with a good chance of winning the championship are still in there.

You are in fact making this problem WORSE again if you mandate that certain teams make it. Throwing the G5 champion or some 9-4 team that lucks into winning it's conference championship game just lowers the number of real spots going to the best teams and thus makes any "errors" in picking the at-larges more impactful.

And, right now, I look at the rankings and think it is being manipulated by SEC interests as the trend has been to rank as many SEC teams as possible as high as possible as early as possible making every SEC win or loss a question of great teams losing or beating great teams.. keeping those high rankings. While teams in other conferences have to battle their way up in the rankings.
This is bullshit. The consistent high ranking of SEC teams is not just a feature of human polls but of various computer systems (including those I've designed myself) that have no interest or reason to boost the SEC. The SEC teams are just good.
Going with conference champions and hard limits (which they do not have) to the number of teams per conference might yield better rankings in the preseason and all season long, as everyone knows there is a limit to CFP participation later. The media people (and coaches) will still want to think they cover the top teams, affecting their votes and the media corps still have advertising to sell for games where ranked team plays ranked team... so financial interests will still matter.. but it might help.
It won't yield "better" rankings. It will yield stupid things like ranking UCF higher so that it doesn't look at dumb having the #23 team (or a completely unranked team!) in the playoff.
 
If your problem is with the selection process then change that process.
No problem fixing the process and changing or getting rid of the Selection Committee.

No "fair system" is putting artifical caps on teams arbitrarily.
The fairness I referred to was fairness to all the conferences. You want to change that? have meaningful OCC games mandated and especially seeing SEC teams travel north later in the season. As it is northern teams have to construct themselves to handle those conditions. SEC teams do not. And if they do play a northern team in OOC it will be at a neutral site, a dome or early enough to have warm weather.

Have all the P5 champs and a G5 "champion" with autobids is mandatory. Those conferences built the bowl system and CFB as a whole and should be included and not minimized by preseason rankings which carry through the year and then flow into better bowl games and thus, higher preseason rankings the next year. Once you do that, that leaves 10 spots and no conference should get 3 more of those 10.

Perhaps this is not really an issue and because there are more games to be played, perhaps an SEC will play itself out of the "projected" 12-team playoff.

Last year, at the end of the season, before teh bowl games, the top 20, which would have included a G5 in Cinci.. the CFP rankings had..

1 Alabama (12–1)
2 Michigan (12–1)
3 Georgia (12–1)
4 Cincinnati (13–0)
5 Notre Dame (11–1)
6 Ohio State (10–2)
7 Baylor (11–2)
8 Ole Miss (10–2)
9 Oklahoma State (11–2)
10 Michigan State (10–2)
11 Utah (10–3)
12 Pittsburgh (11–2)
13 BYU (10–2)
14 Oregon (10–3)
15 Iowa (10–3)
16 Oklahoma (10–2)
17 Wake Forest (10–3)
18 NC State (9–3)
19 Clemson (9–3)
20 Houston (11–2)

If you took the top 12 you would have had..

3 SEC Bama, GA and Ole Miss.. Bama and GA proved their worth beating the 2 and 4 teams. no 8 Ole Miss lost to number 7 Baylor.

3 Big Ten teams, Michigan, OSU and Mich State. Michigan lost to GA in nearly the same way Bama would go on to lose to GA in the title game. OSU won a tough Rose Bowl vs Utah and Michigan State beat Pitt.

2 Big 12 teams.. Baylor and OK State... Baylor beats Ole Miss and OK State beats Notre Dame. Maybe the Big 12 was under-rated? #16 Oklahoma beats number #14 Oregon soundly in their bowl game.

My point is, with only 12 slots, giving 4 to one conference is an awful idea. And I think they allow it for TV reasons. That is, what happens if the 4th team in a conference.. like the SEC.. is a household name like Bama? The TV people want them in there. So while the allowance of a 4th team is in there.. I think it is for TV reasons and if the 4th team was ranked number 10-12 and was a small market team... like Ole Miss.. the SEC would not get a 4th team... but if it is Bama.. hell yeah, come in! And that is why I think there needs be a hard and fast rule.
 
How is this a strawman? (UCF is currently ranked 17th, my bad (?))
Why would UCF be included? Isn't there a ranking requirement for a G5? Oh.. I see what you mean now. If it is just the highest-ranked G5 champion.. yeah.. that could get sketchy. I do have to wonder why you used an imaginary number 23 rather than teh number 17 UCF. For effect, I'd imagine. But you do have a point.

Remember the "Syracuse Rule".. which became known as the "Big East" rule? It was when the BCS Bowls had guaranteed the Big East champ a spot in their 6 New Years bowl games.. but Syracuse was down around 15 one year.. so they made a rule. A rule that ended up threatening the ACC many years which encouraged ESPN to suggest to the ACC that they expand.. and snap up Big East teams.

I suspected there was some clause like that for a G5 participant preventing a number 23 from being included in the 12-team CFP. But the only sources I have seen talk of a G5 champ.. with no ranking requirement.

Still.. if it is close.. like a number 14 G5 Champ.. yeah.. I say include them over a number 12 CFP-ranked team who is not a champ. Still pay the G5s as if they had a participant...because it is about the opportunity to prove your worth in the playoffs as well as teh money earned doing so.

And if the p5s really do not want that.. bite the bullet, toss out the NCAA divisions and create your own "D1" of only programs and conferences you want included. Just do it. But as it is, the expansion is, and should be, about diminishing the importance of rankings and increasing the opportunity for conferences (and their champs) to prove it on the field... to prove the rankings wrong... or prove them correct.
 
UCF is neither 17 or 23 in the CFP. They are ranked 20. UCF is ranked 17 in the AP poll which counts for nothing.
Your point stands.. if there is no sort of limit to how low a G5 champ can be.. that is going to open a HUGE can of worms. Of course, if there is a limit.. maybe voters don't count G5 wins for much. Maybe "computer" rankings people tweak their formulas a bit for SOS of G5s. And we rarely, if ever, see a G5 participant because they are, somewhat artificially, ranked too low every year.

Ever since Boise State beat Oklahoma in that bowl game way back when, people have argued that there are G5 teams worthy of top bowl games (and now the CFP). Cinci got pounded last year by Bama who had a month to prepare along with superior talent... but maybe there are a lot of teams in the Top 12 they could have beaten. Maybe there are top 12 teams now that UCF could beat. They are ranked about the same as Florida State and Florida State beat FBS ranked 6 LSU. It is possible.
 
Last edited:
Your point stands.. if there is no sort of limit to how low a G5 champ can be.. that is going to open a HUGE can of worms. Of course, if there is a limit.. maybe voters don't count G5 wins for much. Maybe "computer" rankings people tweak their formulas a bit for SOS of G5s. And we rarely, if ever, see a G5 participant because they are, somewhat artificially, ranked too low every year.

Ever since Boise State beat Oklahoma in that bowl game way back when, people have argued that there are G5 teams worthy of top bowl games (and now the CFP).
I have no issues with a G5 getting in. I like it. Some years they may fall in the top 12 and some years they won’t. That’s okay. It’s one of the few mechanisms in the sport for the teams lower down the status totem pole to raise their profiles. It’s good for the sport too.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoodOl'Rutgers
I have no issues with a G5 getting in. I like it. Some years they may fall in the top 12 and some years they won’t. That’s okay. It’s one of the few mechanisms in the sport for the teams lower down the status totem pole to raise their profiles. It’s good for the sport too.
Well.. there should be a limit to how low.. but not one that results in more than one year absence from the CFP.. unlike that BCS clause would have done to the Big East.. which was a permanent loss of BCS status for not having an average champ of.. <15 for a 4 year period? (it was a single season, 12 or better over 4 years, for the champ)

linky

When the BCS was formed, its rules stipulated that "each BCS conference is subject to review and possible loss of automatic selection by the BCS should the conference champion not have an average ranking of 12 or higher over a four-year period."​
There were several times where the ACC, not he Big East, was going to fail this.. but they expanded and added a team that satisfied that clause in recent years. Not that the BCS would have exercised that clause against the ACC and major ESPN partner... ESPN who buys most of the bowl games including the BCS. But there would have been cries of hypocrisy had they not exercised the clause. Because we knew all along it was the Big East that was targeted by that text.. but they didn't explicitly say it.
 
Last edited:
…Prioritizing conference champs makes the regular season more meaningful…
Diminishing the value of 25-33% of games makes it more meaningful?

When the result of failure after failure, maybe after even more failure, doesn’t negatively impact a team being provided an opportunity to be deemed champion, the season isn’t more meaningful.
 
G5 ... are, somewhat artificially, ranked too low every year.
I actually believe the opposite is true. Teams with good records against bad schedules tend to be overranked not underranked, IMO. The CFP seems to actually do a better job with this than the major polls.

As a prime example of this, the AP and coaches polls have Coastal Carolina ranked #23. They've got an average MOV of 5 points over exactly nobody. The best team they've beaten is Marshall. They won by 4 against a 5-5 FCS team. They lost to Old Dominion... by 28 points. That is not a top 25 team or even particularly close.
 
I actually believe the opposite is true. Teams with good records against bad schedules tend to be overranked not underranked, IMO. The CFP seems to actually do a better job with this than the major polls.

As a prime example of this, the AP and coaches polls have Coastal Carolina ranked #23. They've got an average MOV of 5 points over exactly nobody. The best team they've beaten is Marshall. They won by 4 against a 5-5 FCS team. They lost to Old Dominion... by 28 points. That is not a top 25 team or even particularly close.
That was a whole paragraph to express a thought, not that one sentence. it is my fault you came away with the impression that I was saying that the G5 is PRESENTLY ranked too low every season. What I expressed was that IF there were a caveat built in to rule out a low-ranked G5 champ.. which I think SHOULD be the case.. then that might provide incentives, in various ranking methods, where they MIGHT be ranked too low every season.

And I used an example where public perception was that Boise State did not deserve its number 9 ranking and the 8-ranked Oklahoma deserved to be higher and would kill them. It opened eyes in terms of G5.

But you have to know that the bowl committees and TB interests and advertisers much prefer brand names to those G5 teams. Didn't we recently see (2009) a 6-6 Notre Dame rule out a bowl bid knowing they would be invited to bowls that should be taking teams with much better records? I think that, in one way or another, these interests get boiled into the various rankings systems.. voters or no.
 
Last edited:
Quick 12 team playoff projection update.

The great Tulane Green Wave (8-2, ranked 19th) would be the 12-seed currently.

Luckily their home loss to mighty Southern Miss (5-6) wouldn't keep them.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT