Hint of Potential Offensive Improvement From RU for 2018-2019 Season?

[Scarlet Shack]

Agree with all except #5. Once Thiam discovers dribble drive and gets a hand full of pts from the post this and adds a few more lbs of muscle along with more confidence this kid is going to be a complete player. I think Thiam will average between 11-14 pts next season and will be our best perimeter defender and play the most minutes. No way a true frosh relegates him to the bench.

GO RU

I hope your right....but I don’t see it.

I’m looking at his release on his shot and the space and time it takes to get it off. I’m looking at his balance when handling the ball...(which is odd and hopeful, as his feet on defense are better). I’m looking at reaction time, quickness and explosion time.

I hope I’m wrong...but with the skill set I see from him in 2 years and that we need a lot more points from the 3 spot on offense....I think this program will move forward if someone proves to be better (and you all know I’m really high on MM...really reminds me of a poor mans Caron Butler) and has him coming off the bench

Time will tell....but right now, the three and five spot are killing us on offense. Pretty sure carter and Mathis improve us offensively next year at those spots, we get similar production at the 1 and 2 from baker and sanders and Eugene and duke give us close to similar to Freeman and Eugene this year at the four

And we improve offensively as a result

“Chain is strongest as its weakest link”...and I think we are fixing are weakest links on offense next year

 

[RUChoppin]

I actually looked at the stats and these 3 games stood out...

There are actually things that matter in other sports and websites that give you more reasonable data that matters...like baseball "splits"....Or what does a player hit in "clutch situations"...Or batting average home vs away....or in hoops, what are your actual percentages against what would be "better competition.

We have a 6 month off season to digest game tapes but I can bring more "splits"....That means what players play or what do they shoot home vs away in conference...etc....these things are used to scout by every staff in America and are reliable enough beyond saying a player is 37% from 3.....when not every 3 taken is the same.

Except splits are meaningful cuts to the data - home vs. away, conference vs. non-conference, December vs. January, etc. Not "without a player's three worst performances" or "against teams whose names start with a vowel".

That's not to say that calling out those games doesn't provide some insight - it just notes that there's a measure of streakiness in Thiam, that he can suddenly have an off night where he can't hit the broad side of a barn while standing inside it. That's part of his game right now, though. It was part of Kiss's game last year, too.

If you're interested in splits, though, here are Thiam's for this year from sports-reference:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/issa-thiam-1/splits/2018

 

[kcg88]

Here's what I'd like to see next year:

1. Guys who set screens actually roll to the basket. Our entire offense is running Corey or Geo off a screen but then the guy who sets it just kind of hovers out there. Need more action off of that (and Corey/Geo need to make the pass of course).

2. Omoruyi becoming a better passer. He has great footwork but there's a bit of Freeman in him in that sometimes he gets the ball and seems to make up his mind that he's putting it up no matter what.

3. In contrast to the OP, I want to see less mid-range from everybody. That's the shot teams want us to take. We need more at the basket and more from 3.

4. Speaking of threes, our percentage is going to be better by default next year, and probably significantly so. Williams and Freeman are dragging it down. Sanders too, and I'd like to believe he can improve on 22% or whatever he's shooting now but his form is a disaster and needs to be reworked.

 

[jellyman]

I hope your right....but I don’t see it.

I’m looking at his release on his shot and the space and time it takes to get it off. I’m looking at his balance when handling the ball...(which is odd and hopeful, as his feet on defense are better). I’m looking at reaction time, quickness and explosion time.

I hope I’m wrong...but with the skill set I see from him in 2 years and that we need a lot more points from the 3 spot on offense....I think this program will move forward if someone proves to be better (and you all know I’m really high on MM...really reminds me of a poor mans Caron Butler) and has him coming off the bench

Time will tell....but right now, the three and five spot are killing us on offense. Pretty sure carter and Mathis improve us offensively next year at those spots, we get similar production at the 1 and 2 from baker and sanders and Eugene and duke give us close to similar to Freeman and Eugene this year at the four

And we improve offensively as a result

“Chain is strongest as its weakest link”...and I think we are fixing are weakest links on offense next year

My comments go back your your original post, on point #5.

First, Thiam is NOT a 4/PF - and never will be ... at least not in college. I do not see him adding the weight that turns him into a PF/4. Thiam is a WF, or even 2G.

Second, by arguing he should post up more, I am NOT arguing for him to be a PF or 4 player. Rather, he would actually create better match-ups playing the WF or 2G, and posting up on 6'6" or smaller players. It adds a dimension to RU's offense that it has lacked: A true post game against mis-matched defenders.

Third, I do agree Thiam needs to keep improving - and Pikiell did say that both Omoruyi and Thiam would have benefited from a red-shirt season - during their freshman years. I am certain Thiam will not red-shirt next season unless he is injured. I also agree his quickness and explosion (which limits his cuts, and his ability to get off perimeter shots with a defender in his face) are lacking - not sure whether than can be improved.

Fourth, I completely disagree that Mathis will start over Thiam - or outperform him. At least next season. Part of this is Thiam's defense, which has greatly improved, and with a couple of exceptions has been way better than average. And a part of this is that I think Thiam still has a world of potential, and a pretty high ceiling. With only SMALL improvements, on the margin, I can easily see Thiam averaging anywhere from 9-10 ppg next season, up from 7.4 ppg now. With slightly more than small improvements, AND more consistency (a lot of feast or famine for Thiam - meaning some games he disappears completely, offensively), I do not think it unreasonable for him to average 10-11 ppg. If Thiam averages 10+ ppg, that would help RU a lot.

On your other parts of your post:

Interesting thought that Doucore is a PF, not a C, and that Carter will be the center ... as I ponder your comment, I think you may be correct. Though Carter seems like a slightly under-sized center (listed at 6'9", I think ... or is it 6'8"?). If you are correct, a depth chart for next year, if Sanders returns, could look like this:

PG: Sanders, Baker, Mensah (?)
2G: Baker, Sanders, Kiss, Mathis
WF: Thiam, Kiss, Mathis, Harper
PF: Omoruyi, Doucore, Carter
C: Carter, Doorson, Johnson, Doucore, Nathan

Looks like to me Harper is the one who should be red-shirted if Sanders returns, as he would be the 3rd or 4th WF. I am missing ONE scholarship player: Either Bullock, or if he transfers, a replacement recruit (PG or shooter ... or PG who can shoot).

 

[dpwhite]

Mathins won't be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart, IMO. Not the way Pikiell has described him. He's more likely to start than be 4th guard off the bench. Pikiell has stated that he would rather have Thiam coming off the bench as instant offense in a perfect world.

 

[RU848789]

Why stop at just the 3 worst? Take out his 6 worst. Or 10. We can bump his percentage way up. And why limit this effort to just games? We can do better. We can remove bad stretches within games when he just wasn’t himself.

In fact, with enough gumption, and I think we have it, we can probably (and properly, mind you) provide reasoned support for taking out every shot he took this year except one, all the shots except the very best one. We’d leave in the most swishiest one, the one with the quickest release that lightly caressed the net as it bullseyed its way through. And with that, RU will suddenly have for itself a 100% 3-point shooter. That’s a unique and formidable weapon. A 100% 3-point shooter. It will be indefensible.

Once we have created this monster, this shooting machine, we will unleash him on the B1G. How? Easy. He will take all the shots. All of them. Every one. Swish. Swish. Swish. Every game will be swishitty, swishitty, swish, swish. One after another after another. With Pikiell’s D, RU will be near unbeatable. He’ll become a verb. RU Thiamed Michigan State last night. It’s impossible to think of a reason not to do this.

Frankly, we’re being selfish and maybe socially irresponsible by applying this to only college basketball. The applications are limitless and can have a much greater impact than simply making RU basketball undefeated again. With a snip here, a red line there, and the removal of a few clinical test sites over there, we will have cured Alzheimer’s. Imagine what we could do with elections. Improve the weather. Stabilize the economy. Make Dane Cook funny.

Bravo! This rivals your Wrongovia post that I think chased vincito away from the boards, lol.

 

[RU848789]

Well said. You need to show that there is an anomaly and that there is an explanation for the anomaly independent of the data.

But the notion that he had three miserable shooting games and shot really well in the rest is not an unreasonable argument to make on its own.

Thanks. But he also had games of 0-2, 0-3, 1-4, etc., which aren't quite as bad as the three Hawk wanted to toss, but clearly indicate that there were other games not too far off those three and there is likely a reasonably Gaussian distribution of the data about the mean, such that tossing any of the games, without some explanation, would not be allowed in any reasonable statistical analysis.

The only reason I'm belaboring this is that we see many people trying to do the same thing with data in sports ("well if we took away his 65 yard run, he'd only have 2.2 yards per carry" - if I had a nickel for every time I saw that ridiculous statement, I'd have a lot of nickels). Unless the other team all decided to let him have a long run, there's no statistically valid reason to toss that anomalous, but valid, data point when analyzing averages.

 

[higgins3]

Plenty of teams play without true "1,2,3,4,5" type of players. It's pretty common now. Many teams play two forwards.

Our roster predictions will be pretty funny to exchange on this board. There are a lot of options. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

10 dollar dogs to someone who actually gets the right lineup down. As we know, starters are not that important, but it does say something.

The competition will make this team better than it is this year.

Mathis-Kiss. - Thiam
Carter- Johnson- Shaq

I am not saying our players are four star caliber. But competition is competition. And some of them are four stars!

 

[RUChoppin]

The only reason I'm belaboring this is that we see many people trying to do the same thing with data in sports ("well if we took away his 65 yard run, he'd only have 2.2 yards per carry" - if I had a nickel for every time I saw that ridiculous statement, I'd have a lot of nickels). Unless the other team all decided to let him have a long run, there's no statistically valid reason to toss that anomalous, but valid, data point when analyzing averages.

I think some of that is trying to get at a sense of consistency rather than a straight mathematical average - that is, what is the amount of yards that a player can be relied upon to pick up most of the time. Given two players that average 3.5 yards per carry, one might prefer the player that usually gets 3.1 yards with the occasional 10-15 yard run to the player that usually gets 1.8 yards with the occasional 60-70 yard run. There are ways of looking at this, though (such as using median instead of mean), that don't just lop off the one big run.

 

[RUChoppin]

Mathins won't be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart, IMO. Not the way Pikiell has described him. He's more likely to start or be 4th guard off the bench. Pikiell has stated that he would rather have Thiam coming off the bench as instant offense in a perfect world.

I'd imagine that Mathis would get the 2nd most minutes at the SG spot (behind Baker), and the 3rd most minutes at the wing.

Assuming Sanders returns, he'll get most of the minutes at the 1, with Baker baking him up.
Baker will get the most minutes at the 2, with Mathis backing him up (and Kiss as the 4th guard)
Thiam will get the most minutes at the 3, with Kiss backing him up (followed by Mathis in 3 guard sets)

So, we'd have Sanders/Baker/Thiam/Mathis/Kiss getting the lion's share of the 120 minutes across those three spots... with Harper fighting for time at the 3. I'd imagine Sanders/Baker will each get 30-32 min, which would leave 56-60 min for Thiam/Mathis/Kiss/Harper.

 

[MadRU]

I'd imagine that Mathis would get the 2nd most minutes at the SG spot (behind Baker), and the 3rd most minutes at the wing.

Assuming Sanders returns, he'll get most of the minutes at the 1, with Baker baking him up.
Baker will get the most minutes at the 2, with Mathis backing him up (and Kiss as the 4th guard)
Thiam will get the most minutes at the 3, with Kiss backing him up (followed by Mathis in 3 guard sets)

So, we'd have Sanders/Baker/Thiam/Mathis/Kiss getting the lion's share of the 120 minutes across those three spots... with Harper fighting for time at the 3. I'd imagine Sanders/Baker will each get 30-32 min, which would leave 56-60 min for Thiam/Mathis/Kiss/Harper.

All depends on what coach envisions with a deeper roster. In the past he has talked about wanting a more pressing defense and a faster paced offense.

That could lead to less than 30 minutes for players if its a high energy run offense and pressure defense.

 

[RUChoppin]

Mathins won't be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart, IMO. Not the way Pikiell has described him. He's more likely to start or be 4th guard off the bench. Pikiell has stated that he would rather have Thiam coming off the bench as instant offense in a perfect world.

Also, on Thiam - I wasn't there, but from everything I've heard people say about that quote, it didn't seem like he was projecting that as Thiam's future role with the team or his performance ceiling - just where he should really be right now. As much as he improved from freshman to sophomore year, I'm hoping continues that progression into his junior year.

 

[RedTeamFan]

If Pike can add a legit impact freshman in the 2019 class then I think we are looking at a team who can compete for a NCAA tournament bid.

Lots can happen between now and then, of course, but the roster below should be full of solid contributors. Adding in an impact freshman could make for a very special team.

Thiam - Sr
Omunyuri - Sr
Kiss - Sr
Carter - Sr
Baker - Jr
Doucoure - Jr
Johnson - RSo
Mathis - So
Harper - So

 

[RedTeamFan]

Zero chance. Don't forget we lose Freeman and Sa.

Personally I think this is good and addition by subtraction.

Been saying this to myself all season!

 

[MadRU]

If Pike can add a legit impact freshman in the 2019 class then I think we are looking at a team who can compete for a NCAA tournament bid.

Lots can happen between now and then, of course, but the roster below should be full of solid contributors. Adding in an impact freshman could make for a very special team.

Thiam - Sr
Omunyuri - Sr
Kiss - Sr <--- Redshirt Junior
Carter - Sr
Baker - Jr
Doucoure - Jr
Johnson - RSo
Mathis - So
Harper - So

Just a FYI, Kiss only played one year, so in 2019 he would be a redshirt junior not a senior

 

[bowlgoal]

Kiss is going to be a terrific player. Regardless of whether Corey returns next season, we need another PG. We just don't have enough at that position right now and if Corey leaves, it's not good for next years team. Thiam is improving and when the focus has to turn to guys like Kiss and Mathis; Thiam can be deadly with the spot up 3. Geo is also going to benefit with more shooters. We need a PG and another center of PF. Not sure what we have yet with Douc. It's early so maybe he makes a leap. Omuyuri could be a real wildcard for us in his junior and senior years. He's strong now but another off-season and he might be a real beast by next season. Hope Corey comes back and gets his slippery feet fixed.

If we can somehow add a Tai Strickland and Hyatt for next season and then another guard and Big in 2019; this comes together. We have to use the ships wisely

 

[MadRU]

In my opinion Tai Strickland has to be a priority recruit for 2018.

 

[higgins3]

The future of Rutgers Basketball is going to be a fun ride.

Lookin forward to it!

 

[Degaz-RU]

Thiam is going to play 25+ mpg if only because of his DEFENSE. Did you see the job he did on Kevin Heurter the other night against Maryland? Heurter is a 15+ ppg guy, but Thiam harassed him all night, and Huerter was really bothered by Thiam's length on the wing. I think Huerter ended up with 11 points, but he had only three FGs and the rest was foul shots.

Thiam is a MAJOR reason our defense has been holding most B1G teams to fewer points than their season averages. His perimeter defense has been superb.

There are 120 (perhaps even 125) minutes to distribute next year at the 1, 2 and 3 spots. Corey and Baker are getting 60 combined. Thiam is getting at least 25, and that leaves about 35-40 for Kiss, Mathis, and Harper.

 

[RUDutch]

Why stop at just the 3 worst? Take out his 6 worst. Or 10. We can bump his percentage way up. And why limit this effort to just games? We can do better. We can remove bad stretches within games when he just wasn’t himself.

In fact, with enough gumption, and I think we have it, we can probably (and properly, mind you) provide reasoned support for taking out every shot he took this year except one, all the shots except the very best one. We’d leave in the most swishiest one, the one with the quickest release that lightly caressed the net as it bullseyed its way through. And with that, RU will suddenly have for itself a 100% 3-point shooter. That’s a unique and formidable weapon. A 100% 3-point shooter. It will be indefensible.

Once we have created this monster, this shooting machine, we will unleash him on the B1G. How? Easy. He will take all the shots. All of them. Every one. Swish. Swish. Swish. Every game will be swishitty, swishitty, swish, swish. One after another after another. With Pikiell’s D, RU will be near unbeatable. He’ll become a verb. RU Thiamed Michigan State last night. It’s impossible to think of a reason not to do this.

Frankly, we’re being selfish and maybe socially irresponsible by applying this to only college basketball. The applications are limitless and can have a much greater impact than simply making RU basketball undefeated again. With a snip here, a red line there, and the removal of a few clinical test sites over there, we will have cured Alzheimer’s. Imagine what we could do with elections. Improve the weather. Stabilize the economy. Make Dane Cook funny.

Your post broke my sarcasm meter. LOL

 

[SkilletHead2]

Thanks. But he also had games of 0-2, 0-3, 1-4, etc., which aren't quite as bad as the three Hawk wanted to toss, but clearly indicate that there were other games not too far off those three and there is likely a reasonably Gaussian distribution of the data about the mean, such that tossing any of the games, without some explanation, would not be allowed in any reasonable statistical analysis.

The only reason I'm belaboring this is that we see many people trying to do the same thing with data in sports ("well if we took away his 65 yard run, he'd only have 2.2 yards per carry" - if I had a nickel for every time I saw that ridiculous statement, I'd have a lot of nickels). Unless the other team all decided to let him have a long run, there's no statistically valid reason to toss that anomalous, but valid, data point when analyzing averages.

Strangely enough, as a statistician, I'm always suspicious of averages and ratios. Averages in particular in sports, and ratios in almost any aspect of life (e.g., if you do X, your chances of getting disease Y increase 3000%. Well, if I had a .0000043 likelihood of getting Y to begin with, maybe a 3000% increase isn't that bad.).

So, I'm often the person saying, "If you take away the 65 yard run...." Except that I wouldn't take it away; I'd consider it, but I would also consider all the other runs that were lousy. One really good run and 30 bad ones is not a great day. It's a Saquon Barkeley day. He seems to be the king of such stats.

One tornado and 7 days of calm doesn't mean that winds of 30 miles an hour are in any way representative of the week. Modes and medians are underused. And while I'm at it, ERA is an insanely dumb stat. But....

 

[RUChoppin]

One tornado and 7 days of calm doesn't mean that winds of 30 miles an hour are in any way representative of the week.

[laughing]

 

[RU848789]

Strangely enough, as a statistician, I'm always suspicious of averages and ratios. Averages in particular in sports, and ratios in almost any aspect of life (e.g., if you do X, your chances of getting disease Y increase 3000%. Well, if I had a .0000043 likelihood of getting Y to begin with, maybe a 3000% increase isn't that bad.).

So, I'm often the person saying, "If you take away the 65 yard run...." Except that I wouldn't take it away; I'd consider it, but I would also consider all the other runs that were lousy. One really good run and 30 bad ones is not a great day. It's a Saquon Barkeley day. He seems to be the king of such stats.

One tornado and 7 days of calm doesn't mean that winds of 30 miles an hour are in any way representative of the week. Modes and medians are underused. And while I'm at it, ERA is an insanely dumb stat. But....

All true - but the argument was about taking data points away without justification to recalculate the mean. Tons of other interesting statistical analyses one can use, but if one is going to use the mean, it should at least be used correctly.

 

[SkilletHead2]

All true - but the argument was about taking data points away without justification to recalculate the mean. Tons of other interesting statistical analyses one can use, but if one is going to use the mean, it should at least be used correctly.

Agree completely. I like Windsorization, but it never caught on.

 

[dpwhite]

Also, on Thiam - I wasn't there, but from everything I've heard people say about that quote, it didn't seem like he was projecting that as Thiam's future role with the team or his performance ceiling - just where he should really be right now. As much as he improved from freshman to sophomore year, I'm hoping continues that progression into his junior year.

He said, "And hopefully next year we have that kind of firepower" or something along those lines. I don't think it's a guarantee, but I don't think Mathis will be 3 or 4th on the guard depth chart next year.

 

[RU848789]

Agree completely. I like Windsorization, but it never caught on.

Probably why I hadn't heard of it, lol. Interesting approach - I kind of like redefining it at some percentile value vs. simply discarding it. And fyi it's "Winsorization."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsorizing

 

[SkilletHead2]

Probably why I hadn't heard of it, lol. Interesting approach - I kind of like redefining it at some percentile value vs. simply discarding it. And fyi it's "Winsorization."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsorizing

I hope you didn't spend too much time googling the wrong spelling! You should see how I mispell Kolmogorov-Smirnoff and Chebbychef!

 

[willisneverrana43]

Part of this is being able to pass out of the post, because he's 6'9 with long arms....another is he's not shown any consistency on posting up, so it is a surprise and he's being trailed by smaller/quicker players to chase him off the 3 point line.

Another part is perhaps next year, adding Kiss/Mathis as shooting threats would make it more difficult to double Thiam....OR perhaps there is another recruit that is added for 2018, that would be able to also play the SF position and there are creative ways to get as many shooters on the court as possible...truthfully, Thiam has to be more than a 6'9" stationary shooter and he's done more this year like rebound.

He's shooting 42-113 from 3 point range BUT, if you take out his 3 worse games

0-5 CCSU
0-7 Nebraska
1-7 Bryant

In all other games, Thiam is 41-94, which is almost 44% from 3......The only issue is the small number of 3 attempts.....Prior to last nights game at Purdue, Penn State's senior guard, Shep Garner, who prior to this year would have been deemed a major disappointment based on his recruiting status, is 81-198 from 3.....41% shooter from 3.....that's 85 more 3's attempted by Garner than Thiam.

There are other staggering numbers that show how hard the staff is working to overcome things and make the most out of the offense BUT, how confident I am things will be better quickly for RU down the road.

It appears as if you have yet another game to add to your list.

 

[RU848789]

It appears as if you have yet another game to add to your list.

lol, I made that point in the game thread - luckily for Issa his 0-5 from three gets tossed from his season average...

 

[RU848789]

I hope you didn't spend too much time googling the wrong spelling! You should see how I mispell Kolmogorov-Smirnoff and Chebbychef!

Kolmogorov is a giant in the field of chemical engineering, particularly his equations describing turbulent flow of fluids, including microscale turbulent eddies, which bear his name, as Kolmogorov eddies. He was a brilliant mathematician, too, which is no surprise - I'm sure you know him best from his probability theory work.

 

[SkilletHead2]

Kolmogorov is a giant in the field of chemical engineering, particularly his equations describing turbulent flow of fluids, including microscale turbulent eddies, which bear his name, as Kolmogorov eddies. He was a brilliant mathematician, too, which is no surprise - I'm sure you know him best from his probability theory work.

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which if I recall correctly, has to do with which vodka tastes better.