How many conference wins does RU get?

[Scarlet Blind]

Looking at Michigan St's schedule after tonight's Northwestern game, they have @ Illinois on Thurs Jan 11th, 9pm and quick turnaround, home vs Rutgers Sat Jan 13 1pm, favors us.

Jan 9 Vs Indiana, Jan 13 @ Michigan St, Jan 17 vs Nebraska could be a three game winning streak, if we play well.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

this seems high ceiling considering we are likely headed for a 1-6 start at best

We are really really down on things …and a lot of that is totally justified .

But there is going to be some better basketball at some point , and we will think we have turned the corner , then throw out another clunker.

I’ve seen a lot worse teams than us get to 8-12….let it play out.

I might be wrong , but the negative is ruling the day .

Let it play out

Though …I will say Tuesday is a HUGE game …we need a win to get some confidence started ….

 

[BillyC80]

We win 7 with the team as it stands now. If Ogbole plays soon and gives us anything positive, we win one other close game. If JWill plays at least 14 games, we win an additional 2, for 10 total.

 

[Shelby65]

I never had any prediction of us winning vs Maryland in football. I knew we were finishing 6-6 after we got own by Iowa 26-0. I'm not a huge Schiano guy 1.0 or 2.0, he's a ceiling 7-5, 8-4 guy that might have a 10-2 type season once every 4-5 years.

Aside: Schiano will never see 9 or 10 wins. Never. His one dimensional game plans repel legit QB and receiver recruits, and eliminates any chance of beating any Top 25 team. The high school offense is terribly misguided.

 

[biazza38]

We are really really down on things …and a lot of that is totally justified .

But there is going to be some better basketball at some point , and we will think we have turned the corner , then throw out another clunker.

I’ve seen a lot worse teams than us get to 8-12….let it play out.

I might be wrong , but the negative is ruling the day .

Let it play out

Though …I will say Tuesday is a HUGE game …we need a win to get some confidence started ….

8-12 requires us to finish 8-9
That’s not happening.
So far we’ve played one good half of basketball in our 3 conference games. I love your optimism. I wish I had it, but I’m praying for 6 at this point.
Our biggest problem is our defense and rebounding is not good. When you fall behind, you have to be able to go on multiple runs to not only get back into it, but to win the game.
Besides the fact that we go on so many scoring droughts, our defense and rebounding do not enable us to go on runs. We’re a team that is built to fall behind early and then trail the whole way while we cut the deficit to somewhere between 6-12 points. We’re simply not good enough

 

[billgumpper]

I have them for 5 based upon how they’ve looked against real opponents this year.

2

 

[fluoxetine]

Our biggest problem is our defense and rebounding is not good.

We are #13 in adjusted defensive efficiency despite our woeful rebounding. Defense is.. not anywhere close to our biggest problem.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

Tuesday night is huge. We need a nice B1G victory. We've lost our last four B1G games at the RAC by 10 points or more. We need that winning feeling in the worst way.

A win Tuesday will get the season on track. If we win, I predict eight wins. A loss and it's likely we finish 5-15, just like last year's Ohio State club.

 

[zappaa]

8-12 sounds right

lol

 

[NY AGENTMAN]

6

 

[zappaa]

6

0 is more likely than 6 or on the delusional side, 8-12.
Home court advantage helps good teams, not bad teams.

 

[fluoxetine]

0 is more likely than 6 or on the delusional side, 8-12.
Home court advantage helps good teams, not bad teams.

Zero is not more likely than 6. You’re being stupid.

 

[zappaa]

Zero is not more likely than 6. You’re being stupid.

0 is more likely than 6 wins is quite fair imo.
I’m often quite wrong so there’s that 😊

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We are a bad team right now.....there are a some not good teams out there that will have bad nights and we will have some good ones.

i am going with 5.5 because I am split between 5 and 6
Games to circle
IND
NEB
PSU
at MD
NW
at MIN
MD
MICH
OSU

We will go 1-8 in the 9 games not listed. We will go 5-4 or 4-5 vs. this list.

Tuesday is big if goal is to avoid Wednesday. If goals are NCAAs this is a MUST game.

 

[bac2therac]

Zero is not more likely than 6. You’re being stupid.

maybe not 6 but more likely than 8

 

[fluoxetine]

maybe not 6 but more likely than 8

You guys really underestimate how bad and unlucky you need to be to literally go 0 for the conference. Even Eddie's last team didn't manage it.

If you use win probabilities from Torvik
0 wins = 0.03%
1 win = 0.4%
2 wins = 2.2%
3 wins = 6.9%
4 wins = 14.5%
5 wins = 21.2%
6 wins = 22.2%
7 wins = 17.1%
8 wins = 9.7%
9 wins = 4.1%
10 wins = 1.3%
11 wins = 0.3%
12 wins = 0.05%
13-15 wins = essentially zero

So the first point at which zero wins is more likely than >=x wins happens where x = THIRTEEN. And Torvik does not think we're good, he has us rated as the third worst team in the conference and barely above the two we are ahead of (RU #102, PSU #110, MD #112).

 

[fluoxetine]

The last team to go 0-fer in the Big Ten was Northwestern in 1999-2000 (and that was only 16 games). That team was ranked literally last in D1 in points scored per game at 51.5.

 

[billgumpper]

Zero is not more likely than 6. You’re being stupid.

He is not being stupid at all, I predicted 2 which is closer to 0 than 6. This is the worst team in the Big 10.

 

[fluoxetine]

He is not being stupid at all, I predicted 2 which is closer to 0 than 6. This is the worst team in the Big 10.

So you’re also being stupid? Congrats?

 

[RU MAN]

I will be optimistic and say we win 8 games. And we still don't make the NIT tourney.

 

[Scangg]

We aren't winning 0 games. Let's steer the discussion back to reality

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You guys really underestimate how bad and unlucky you need to be to literally go 0 for the conference. Even Eddie's last team didn't manage it.

If you use win probabilities from Torvik
0 wins = 0.03%
1 win = 0.4%
2 wins = 2.2%
3 wins = 6.9%
4 wins = 14.5%
5 wins = 21.2%
6 wins = 22.2%
7 wins = 17.1%
8 wins = 9.7%
9 wins = 4.1%
10 wins = 1.3%
11 wins = 0.3%
12 wins = 0.05%
13-15 wins = essentially zero

So the first point at which zero wins is more likely than >=x wins happens where x = THIRTEEN. And Torvik does not think we're good, he has us rated as the third worst team in the conference and barely above the two we are ahead of (RU #102, PSU #110, MD #112).

Only flaw would be results arent completely independent of each other.

If RU loses by more than the bart spread probabilities go down in the future. If we get an injury to Cliff………we are fvcked

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We aren't winning 0 games. Let's steer the discussion back to reality

Mag could get hurt you know

 

[bac2therac]

Mag could get hurt you know

Not Mag..if Cliff didnt play we would win zero

 

[Scarlet Blind]

He is not being stupid at all, I predicted 2 which is closer to 0 than 6. This is the worst team in the Big 10.

Here are the odds
0-1 50%
0-2 25%
0-3 12.5%
0-4 6.25%
0-5.3.125%
0-6 1.5625%
0-7 0.78125%
0-8 0.390625%
0-9 0.1953125%
0-10 0.09765625%
0-11 0.048828125%
0-12 0.0244140625%
0-13 0.01220703125%
0-14 0.006103515625%
0-15 0.0030517578125%
0-16 0.00152587890625%
0-17 0.000762939453125%

So yes it is pretty impossible to go 0-17 for the rest of the season. You might have better luck winning the lottery.

 

[fluoxetine]

Only flaw would be results arent completely independent of each other.

If RU loses by more than the bart spread probabilities go down in the future. If we get an injury to Cliff………we are fvcked

This is true, but we would have to get a LOT worse for 6 wins to become less likely than 0. Like into the high 200s probably. It’s just really hard to go 0-20.

 

[NickRU714]

17 straight losses?
20?

***Detroit Pistons have entered the chat***

 

[hinson32]

I have them for 5 based upon how they’ve looked against real opponents this year.

As Dean Warmer once said 0.0!

 

[JudgeSmails56]

I’ll say 3

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Not Mag..if Cliff didnt play we would win zero

Inside joke

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

This is true, but we would have to get a LOT worse for 6 wins to become less likely than 0. Like into the high 200s probably. It’s just really hard to go 0-20.

Agreed

 

[fluoxetine]

Looks like we’re not going 0-20, what a surprise.

 

[Scangg]

Looks like we’re not going 0-20, what a surprise.

18-2!!