Interesting Purdue line at Rutgers +20

[bowlgoal]

I don't gamble on sports but I'm always interested in what the odds makers think because I'm just a huge fan and want to win. Not that I couldn't see us losing by 20 or more because that can happen especially on the road; but i didn't think the spread would be that much? Granted, we only played one road game and lost by 22 to Minny; but we just had a lapse towards the end or it could have been much closer. If we get back to playing Rutgers basketball, we could easily be in the game and lose by 10 or less. If we play like we've played the last two games; it could be ugly and Purdue has 3 point shooters galore.

I think we come back tonight and play tough? Just my opinion. Rutgers sports is so difficult just to be a fan so adding betting is not my desire. But, I hope i'm right? Even if we lose as I expect, we need to get back to playing good basketball. I still think 6-7 more wins is not out of the question?

 

[RutgersRaRa]

I wasn't that surprised that the line was that high. We haven't played on the road this year except IIRC once, and we got blown out. We also have played poorly with longer layoffs. Purdue is very good this year and will have options underneath. They will probably get in the bonus earlier than we do, so I expect the FT difference to generate 6-8 additional points for them.

 

[kcg88]

Purdue has been crushing teams. Marquette by 15, Arizona by 24, Butler by 15, and then you've got Valpo by 30, Fairfield by 42, Tennessee State by 49.

KenPom rates Lipscomb at #128 and us at #121. Purdue beat Lipscomb by 32 points.

A gigantic blowout is very much in play tonight, we shouldn't be shocked with any outcome.

 

[bowlgoal]

I wasn't that surprised that the line was that high. We haven't played on the road this year except IIRC once, and we got blown out. We also have played poorly with longer layoffs. Purdue is very good this year and will have options underneath. They will probably get in the bonus earlier than we do, so I expect the FT difference to generate 6-8 additional points for them.

I know they are better and it could happen but that seems like an Eddie Jordan type line for a conference game. Pikiell has played Them so he knows what to expect.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Always a fallacy - bookmakers think VIG (for vigorish) which is their commission Not what they think a team will win or lose by. The line is set to get equal betting on both sides chalk and dog. If they get on sided action they will move the spread to equalize both sides.

 

[RUChoppin]

We lost by 22 to then-#12-now-unranked Minnesota on the road.... now we face #13 Purdue on the road. Don't see that as too high.

 

[TobyTyler1]

20 sounds like a huge #

but when you are down by 10-15 with five mins to play, and start taking ill advised threes, rushed shots, cheating for O boards,etc, can get to 20 pretty quick.

 

[RutgersRaRa]

Always a fallacy - bookmakers think VIG (for vigorish) which is their commission Not what they think a team will win or lose by. The line is set to get equal betting on both sides chalk and dog. If they get on sided action they will move the spread to equalize both sides.

In this case they coincide.

 

[Mr Magoo]

I'll trade a bowout tonight for a win Friday night.

 

[TobyTyler1]

20 sounds like a huge #

but when you are down by 10-15 with five mins to play, and start taking ill advised threes, rushed shots, cheating for O boards,etc, can get to 20 pretty quick.

not sure if kosher to quote myself lol

just looked at MN game referenced above - RU was down by 8 with 9 mins left to play. then went about 3/17 and MN scored a ton of pts from free throw line. (Freeman 1/7 in final 9 mins)

 

[RUsojo]

Always a fallacy - bookmakers think VIG (for vigorish) which is their commission Not what they think a team will win or lose by. The line is set to get equal betting on both sides chalk and dog. If they get on sided action they will move the spread to equalize both sides.

The biggest fallacy in sports betting. Amateur perspective always amazes me.

 

[RUJMM78]

Rutgers problem will be scoring versus Purdue which has a lineup with scorers in the post and from the 3 point line.In the first two league games Rutgers had problems even scoring 60 points while Purdue routinely scores more than 75 points a game.This game on the road is a really bad matchup for Rutgers.

 

[kcg88]

We lost by 19 at Purdue last year... we were down 26 with 1:40 left before getting some garbage time buckets. And they're probably an even better team this year even without Swanigan.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Public (betting ) perception probably would have had this line at 16 prior to the RU losses to Stony Brook and Hartford. Lines tend to inflate based on such a trend. Not saying we cover the spread - actual play - varies from public expected perception.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

The biggest fallacy in sports betting. Amateur perspective always amazes me.

Yes and no. Vegas also throws out sucker lines too

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Purdue is our worst match up by far with their big man haas. He'll go for probably 25 and 15 tonight. Hes going to probably block at least 4 crazy freeman attempts as well.

 

[bowlgoal]

Haas is a real match up problem and when he's doubled; their guards can load up on 3s. But then again MSU and SHU gave us similar match up issues and we handled it very well. I'm very concerned about the FT shooting because that just gets in your head and even more concerned about getting the ball inside to an undersized Freeman. They block a good amount of shots. Maybe this layoff helped us and the guys are refreshed. Geo needs to come alive and has to be one of the top scorers for us. I just wish they would set more picks for him and Corey. Don't let them penetrate into a crowd with no help.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Haas plays half the game. Getting him the ball requires a few passes and slows the tempo.

My concern...
Dakota Mathias 38-84 .452
Carsen Edwards 31-84 .369
PJ Thompson 30-60 .500
Vincent Edwards 21-52 .404
Ryan Cline 18-46 .391

Mike williams 12-49 .245
Corey Sanders 11-45 .244

 

[BoxStater]

Haas plays half the game. Getting him the ball requires a few passes and slows the tempo.

My concern...
Dakota Mathias 38-84 .452
Carsen Edwards 31-84 .369
PJ Thompson 30-60 .500
Vincent Edwards 21-52 .404
Ryan Cline 18-46 .391

Mike williams 12-49 .245
Corey Sanders 11-45 .244

Well you’ve always wanted Williams over Thiam, I think this would be the perfect game for that, Williams could shut down Mathias?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Sanders on Carsen Edwards
Baker on PJ Thompson
Thaim on Mathis
Freeman on Vince Edwards *******
Duke on Haas

Freeman on Edwards is the scary matchup. This could be a eugene type of game.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Well you’ve always wanted Williams over Thiam, I think this would be the perfect game for that, Williams could shut down Mathias?

I like Thiam on Mathias. Haven't seen Purdue this year yet. Mathias is not a threat to penetrate and Thiam's length could be a disrupter.

Kiss, Bullock and Mensah kill us this game. You can go 0, 2, 3, 5, 15 against Purdue. 0 3 5 15 33 when haas is out. the problem is the game is 40 minutes and not 30.

 

[kcg88]

Haarms is the guy to watch for with blocks, not Haas. He's just as tall if not taller but much more athletic (not as refined offensively, though).

 

[YoucancallmeRay]

The opponent this game is almost irrelevant to me. How the team handles the setbacks from the last two games is what I'll be looking at. Coach had to earn his pay this week trying to restore some confidence and get his kids to play better team offense and defense. The team is probably confused and questioning themselves and their teammates, so how they respond will go a long way to determining whether their season will end up being considered a success or not.

 

[patk89]

The biggest fallacy in sports betting. Amateur perspective always amazes me.

I'm always surprised that otherwise intelligent people don't understand that the betting public creates a market and that the line is very much indicative on who is expected to win the game. Often the lines are turn out very close to being correct. The best source if I knew nothing about 2 teams and had to pick who will win. I'd ask what is the line and always pick the 20 point favorite. Is that controversial? If the lines were not predictive, pros would be able to make windfall gains by taking the dogs (they get points and some think the lines are not predictive). Bottom line is, RU is very unlikely to win this road game. If the market had them as 5 point dogs, there would be a much better likelihood of victory.

 

[bac2therac]

well didnt we lose by 22 in our only road game and we lost to 2 low majors at home consecutively. That would put us in the bad catagory with Vegas at this point. I wouldnt touch the line but I can certainly see why they see it that way.

 

[biazza38]

You think +20 is high? Have you watched the last two weeks? Less than 50% chance we cover. I’d put it on 70% chance Purdue covers. If it’s somehow close at the half, Purdue second half is probably a lock

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Do you think Pikiell wants to lose by 20? Do you think RU 1st team isn't better than Purdues 2nd team?

I'd take the points with confidence.

12-3 it might be a different story.

 

[bac2therac]

RU lost to Minnesota by 22, sure they can lose by 22 to Purdue

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

that wasnt after 2 embarassing losses. If RU is down 25 with 4 minutes left I like their chances of covering tonight. I wouldnt say that for the Minnesota game.

 

[bac2therac]

usually these games will follow that path that RU stays relative close for the first half and then its slow death in 2nd half where lead balloons to 20...fans lament the refs saying that they changed the game. I know last years Purdue game this board was all over the refs in a game that RU got blown out in.

 

[huskersalways]

usually these games will follow that path that RU stays relative close for the first half and then its slow death in 2nd half where lead balloons to 20...fans lament the refs saying that they changed the game. I know in all games all fan bases say the ref's changed and are cheating for the other team and that's why we lost.

FIFY

 

[jtung230]

Is 21 relatively close?

 

[RUTrack94]

Covered the halftime spread

 

[rucoe89]

Looks like spread will be easily covered.

 

[biazza38]

I really can’t believe OP didn’t see this coming

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

I think some of the refs had money on Purdue covering. Their pattern of calls when we looked to narrow things early in the 2nd half was highly suspicious.

 

[jtung230]

Good one GoodO

 

[Dpgru]

Maybe we can all take some consolation in the fact that the OP was correct when he said he felt the line should not have been 20.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Good one GoodO

c'mon.. it was kinda crazy.. Purdue is lofting 3s.. we are driving inside.. we are not pressing.. and Purdue is in the double bonus quite early and the game was almost over before we got in the bonus at all. Haas was out of control half the time with throwing himself into out guys and then looking for calls... and getting them.

So, here's my thought process. Purdue was never in jeopardy of losing this game. So its not just home cooking.. there was no reason to "help" Purdue.. and yet the refs were helping Purdue. That begs the question "why?" and the only answer that makes sense is that the 19 point line looked like it was in jeopardy early in the 2nd half and the refs wanted to assure themselves that that would not happen. By putting Purdue into the double bonus early.. they could manufacture points for them whenever they wanted.

And, again.. Purdue did not need the help.

Furthermore.. we know refs have bet games. It is history. So why not now? It is possible.

 

[bowlgoal]

I really can’t believe OP didn’t see this coming[/QUOTE
Yep, I was wrong. I thought it could happen but I didn’t think it would? Purdue Coach really stuck it to Pikiell as well. He was relentless to the very end.

Purdue is very good but paybacks a bitch. When we have the horses and we will, we owe them some pain.