Jerry Carino: Big 10 2018/19 Predictions
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Overrated- Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa
Underrated-Ohio State, Purdue, RU, Minnesota.
Underrated-Ohio State, Purdue, RU, Minnesota.
Perennial last place team loses it's two leading scorers, one of whom was the team's leading rebounder. It's only logical to pick us last. It's a great opportunity for Pikiell to prove the "experts" wrong.
I’m surprised you’re not buying into Nebby. With Palmer, Copeland and Roby coming back and Allen going into his sophomore year they should be a true contender for the conference.
The goal for this season should be a winning record.Coming in last against B1G competition won't result in a winning record.The problem always comes back to the inability to win on the road which has been caused by the team only averaging around 60 points per game.
They had a tailor made schedule and in the games against the actual NCAA B1G teams, the margins of defeat weren't close enough for me to think they are going to close 8-12 points per game. I think they dance but 3rd is awfully high IMO...i think the B1G gets 6-7 teams in and Nebraska is 1 of the 6-7 but i don't have them 3rd.
Wisconsin gets 2 starting guards back off injury and Ohio State has better talent overall vs Nebraska...Maryland and Indiana are also better on paper as well....also think Carsen Edwards is B1G player of the year so 8th might be too low for Purdue.
Last year's aberration isn't the typical B1G performance.
Last place is fair no doubt..until we get of basement we will always be predicted for last place..the best news is when we shock some teams with our young core. Getting a experience grad transfer guard to work with Geo will help us exit the cellar. Keep hope alive!
They went 13-5 even with a favorable schedule that's real good and they have serious talent coming back. Also they lost to Kansas essentially on a last possession play, destroyed Michigan at home. Let's not act like they played last place teams for all 18 games.
Nebraska is going to be good.
Nebraska is going to be good.
I can totally see Nebraska and PSU underperform AND Purdue outperform. I think i agree with Iowa too. Yes they were young last year, but maybe their young guys just arent that good and are not willing to buy in on the defensive end.
If I was ranking this week, I would go with the following based on incoming talent and where teams finished last year/schedule not finalized etc.
1) Michigan State (Izzo and talent clearly at top)
2) Indiana (Archie Miller/recruiting/blue blood program).
3) Michigan (top 5 national coach/system geared towards ability to replace starting players all the time).
4) Ohio State (powerhouse financial program that recruits elite talent every year)....paying Holtmann top dollar to leave Butler comes with expectations of winning 20-22+ games annually.
5) Wisconsin (red flag to have this high on paper, but lost starting backcourt for entire league schedule and still finished 9th place last year at 7-11.....gotta figure a starting backcourt is worth 2-3 B1G games)...you don't make 18 straight NCAA's in a row, have a rash of injuries to your starters and get tossed to the bottom half of a ranking system, until proven otherwise.
6) Nebraska (bubble/schedule/ability to win on road against top half of league is red flag, but talent is there/need to see more depth off bench)....Excellent at home is a huge factor now.
7) Maryland (have to figure if they were 8-10 last year, they can be 10-8)....more of a leap of faith on talent, than reality....Turgeon under the gun now.
8) Purdue (Carsen Edwards factor to me is huge)....I'd have no problem flip flopping Nebraska and Purdue, based on how highly I view Edwards as a player/leader.....he could be Tony Carr 2.0, leading Purdue to wins, that they have no business getting involved with.
To me, this is your Top 8, without having seen the actual 20 game schedule and who plays back to back road trips and home stands etc.
9th-Illinois- although my instinct is to place them 11th- overwhelming amount of turnover on roster, but talent is clearly there for Brad Underwood. I probably should drop them even lower to 12th, I don't like some of the rumblings behind the scenes with the staff and existing players that departed....but will ignore that for now and reserve right to drop them lower, if it looks worse than it is......but based on the look at incoming players and talent, it's difficult to see them lower, they have players for sure.
10th Penn State-too many 3 point shot attempts and makes to replace, to rank any higher.....I think they could drop further than this, quite honestly, if they didn't beat Ohio State on a 35 footer in Columbus, they would be 8-10 last year and not picked in top half of league this year. I see them as a 7-13 or 6-14 type of team this year, with people looking out for them now....lack of home court advantage is still a concern in Happy Valley, will winning the NIT salvage that??
11th Northwestern-If anyone can get a team to this part of the standings, it's Chris Collins, because there really is a system in place and new facilities to look forward to, after being displaced last year.....Vic Law becomes the guy as a senior. I should flip flop NW and Illinois on coaching and style of play.....on paper however, Illinois is clearly better.
12th Iowa-I don't like their defense or McCaffrey's sideline antics, my gut instinct is to place them 13th or last, but it's still Iowa and I need to see RU pass them over a 20 game schedule before dropping them lower (hint, hint).
13th Rutgers-(should be 12th and will be higher, if they landed Casimir or Amin)...RAC factor should start to take hold as home court becomes a major factor into 2019-2020 (this coming season is still a wildcard). Coaching staff being held together for a 3rd year in a row, is when results start to show up (I have RU 11th if Amin picks RU and is healthy and there are no injuries).
14th-Minnesota-....this is not a talent ranking as much as it' s a climate hanging over Minneapolis.....PJ Fleck is somehow managing through athletes suing the school and finding recruits for football......
Pitino Jr is now in the midst of transfers out and doesn't appear to have good enough kids, that are good people off the court, to buy-in and do the work necessary to stop the bleeding.....parents taking shots at the staff on twitter, assistant coach/recruiting ace, Kimani Young abandoning ship for Danny Hurley and UConn.
Coffey returning is a walking double-double, but I am leery of environment and buy-in.....it's making this Pitino Jr's last season in Minny IMO....
1) Michigan State (Izzo and talent clearly at top)
2) Indiana (Archie Miller/recruiting/blue blood program).
3) Michigan (top 5 national coach/system geared towards ability to replace starting players all the time).
4) Ohio State (powerhouse financial program that recruits elite talent every year)....paying Holtmann top dollar to leave Butler comes with expectations of winning 20-22+ games annually.
5) Wisconsin (red flag to have this high on paper, but lost starting backcourt for entire league schedule and still finished 9th place last year at 7-11.....gotta figure a starting backcourt is worth 2-3 B1G games)...you don't make 18 straight NCAA's in a row, have a rash of injuries to your starters and get tossed to the bottom half of a ranking system, until proven otherwise.
6) Nebraska (bubble/schedule/ability to win on road against top half of league is red flag, but talent is there/need to see more depth off bench)....Excellent at home is a huge factor now.
7) Maryland (have to figure if they were 8-10 last year, they can be 10-8)....more of a leap of faith on talent, than reality....Turgeon under the gun now.
8) Purdue (Carsen Edwards factor to me is huge)....I'd have no problem flip flopping Nebraska and Purdue, based on how highly I view Edwards as a player/leader.....he could be Tony Carr 2.0, leading Purdue to wins, that they have no business getting involved with.
To me, this is your Top 8, without having seen the actual 20 game schedule and who plays back to back road trips and home stands etc.
9th-Illinois- although my instinct is to place them 11th- overwhelming amount of turnover on roster, but talent is clearly there for Brad Underwood. I probably should drop them even lower to 12th, I don't like some of the rumblings behind the scenes with the staff and existing players that departed....but will ignore that for now and reserve right to drop them lower, if it looks worse than it is......but based on the look at incoming players and talent, it's difficult to see them lower, they have players for sure.
10th Penn State-too many 3 point shot attempts and makes to replace, to rank any higher.....I think they could drop further than this, quite honestly, if they didn't beat Ohio State on a 35 footer in Columbus, they would be 8-10 last year and not picked in top half of league this year. I see them as a 7-13 or 6-14 type of team this year, with people looking out for them now....lack of home court advantage is still a concern in Happy Valley, will winning the NIT salvage that??
11th Northwestern-If anyone can get a team to this part of the standings, it's Chris Collins, because there really is a system in place and new facilities to look forward to, after being displaced last year.....Vic Law becomes the guy as a senior. I should flip flop NW and Illinois on coaching and style of play.....on paper however, Illinois is clearly better.
12th Iowa-I don't like their defense or McCaffrey's sideline antics, my gut instinct is to place them 13th or last, but it's still Iowa and I need to see RU pass them over a 20 game schedule before dropping them lower (hint, hint).
13th Rutgers-(should be 12th and will be higher, if they landed Casimir or Amin)...RAC factor should start to take hold as home court becomes a major factor into 2019-2020 (this coming season is still a wildcard). Coaching staff being held together for a 3rd year in a row, is when results start to show up (I have RU 11th if Amin picks RU and is healthy and there are no injuries).
14th-Minnesota-....this is not a talent ranking as much as it' s a climate hanging over Minneapolis.....PJ Fleck is somehow managing through athletes suing the school and finding recruits for football......
Pitino Jr is now in the midst of transfers out and doesn't appear to have good enough kids, that are good people off the court, to buy-in and do the work necessary to stop the bleeding.....parents taking shots at the staff on twitter, assistant coach/recruiting ace, Kimani Young abandoning ship for Danny Hurley and UConn.
Coffey returning is a walking double-double, but I am leery of environment and buy-in.....it's making this Pitino Jr's last season in Minny IMO....
This is the basketball board.
LOL. Thanks. I definitely screwed that one up!! (FWIW, there is a lot of PSU bashing over on the football board!)
I don't disagree with much here but it is amazing that Izzo can survive the loss of two potential lottery picks and a huge scandal and still be picked to finish first. I'm not saying it won't happen, but that's pretty impressive.
I have also read about some unrest at Illinois, but I think a lot of it has to do with Underwood geting "his" players in. He's a really good coach.
I am not as high on Indiana as you are....yet, but Miller is bringing in the talent. I'm also not as low on Iowa and McCaffrey. They didn't play "D" last year but the talent is certainly there (Cook, Moss, Bohannon, Garza) and I think they surprise this year.
The Big Ten will be very competitive this year.
I see Rutgers finishing from 12-14. It's too early to tell as many have mentioned.
Is Ron Harper Jr for real? I think he is. That perimeter spot could be his by mid season.
I think Caleb McConnell works himself to playing 15-23 minutes by mid season as well.
I see Rutgers finishing from 12-14. It's too early to tell as many have mentioned.
Is Ron Harper Jr for real? I think he is. That perimeter spot could be his by mid season.
I think Caleb McConnell works himself to playing 15-23 minutes by mid season as well.
Minnesota is a weird team to project. I don't like little Ricky as a coach and they imploded last season, but they do have a lot of talent in their starting lineup. Their likely lineup next season is double double machine Jordan Murphy, 3 year starter Dupree McBrayer, and then 3 kids that were all very highly rated recruits (247 consensus ranks) - Amir Coffey (49), Isaiah Washington (62), and Daniel Oturu (50).
Last season was such a cluster with the expulsion of Reggie Lynch and several month injury to Coffey that I suspect they will bounce back somewhat even with the loss of Nate Mason. Gopher fans seem convinced they will be a top 25 team this year but I'm not sure I'd go quite that far.
As for Nebraska, the optimistic predictions for them are a little like those for Iowa last year where people focus on the conference W/L record and standing and not so much on the overall quality of season. Yes Nebraska was 13-5 in conference play last season and got the #4 seed in the Big Ten tourney. However, they had almost the easiest conference schedule imaginable only playing 4 total games against the 4 teams that made the NCAA tourney. KenPom says they were the 55th best team in the country. So they do return a ton of production, but I start the projection from that 55th ranking and then move them up from there. So I see them as more of a borderline top 25 team (maybe 25-35 nationally) which probably puts them somewhere between 3rd and 7th in the conference depending on how things shake out. I really don't think they will seriously contend for winning the conference.
Last season was such a cluster with the expulsion of Reggie Lynch and several month injury to Coffey that I suspect they will bounce back somewhat even with the loss of Nate Mason. Gopher fans seem convinced they will be a top 25 team this year but I'm not sure I'd go quite that far.
As for Nebraska, the optimistic predictions for them are a little like those for Iowa last year where people focus on the conference W/L record and standing and not so much on the overall quality of season. Yes Nebraska was 13-5 in conference play last season and got the #4 seed in the Big Ten tourney. However, they had almost the easiest conference schedule imaginable only playing 4 total games against the 4 teams that made the NCAA tourney. KenPom says they were the 55th best team in the country. So they do return a ton of production, but I start the projection from that 55th ranking and then move them up from there. So I see them as more of a borderline top 25 team (maybe 25-35 nationally) which probably puts them somewhere between 3rd and 7th in the conference depending on how things shake out. I really don't think they will seriously contend for winning the conference.
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A little off topic and maybe it's just me but Pitino Jr has the most punchable face
Like a guy who grew up rich with a dad that liked to bang waitresses on the table after hours? He literally is that guy... the most punch-able (non-nazi) guy in the world!
What a tough conference. Nebraska could be very good. Illinois could be very good. I just have no idea how we will end up this year but I think we will surprise a few teams once we start to Gel.
I’m just excited that we now have multiple outside threats.
I’m just excited that we now have multiple outside threats.
I think the front court will surprise as well but I don’t blame anyone for being skeptical. Johnson and Carter will be playing their first d1 games. Fair to call them question marks.
The chances of us finishing last are zero, zero, and zero again.
Yes but so will a lot of the freshman talent Carino credits as boosting other teams' chances. I understand Romeo Langford is a 5 star, etc. Really, "question mark" is code for "ultimately not that good". As you said, Omoruyi, Shaq, Shaq, Doucoure and Johnson will surprise as a group.
Could they? Illinois fans have mostly given up on the idea they could make the tourney this year. Losing Leron Black early and then seeing a bunch of guys transfer has left them young and short. I think they only have 2 players over 6'6" on the roster right now and both of them are incoming freshmen (neither of whom are highly rated).
Maybe we should stop having the team jog to road games??? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
Your comment isn't supported by fact because there always is a chance that something could happen.
We deserve to be picked last until proven otherwise.
We finished 14th four straight years and just lost three of our top five players, including our one true “star.”
Yes, Pike has done a terrific job of restocking the roster with talent, but except for a few returning players, it’s ALL young and unproven talent.
Can we be a surprise team that outplays the predictions? Sure. But it makes sense to predict us to finish last at this point.
We finished 14th four straight years and just lost three of our top five players, including our one true “star.”
Yes, Pike has done a terrific job of restocking the roster with talent, but except for a few returning players, it’s ALL young and unproven talent.
Can we be a surprise team that outplays the predictions? Sure. But it makes sense to predict us to finish last at this point.
I agree, we should be picked last until we prove that we are much better than we were. I am so very excited about our team and all of the new guys but we must see how everything blends together.
I think Rutgers is only about 30-40% likely to finish last. However, that would still be the biggest number in the conference, so I would have to pick them there. I'd break down chances of finishing last like this, roughly:
Rutgers: 35%
Illinois: 18%
Minnesota: 15%
Iowa: 15%
Northwestern: 10%
Field: 7%
So in other words: I think we're more likely to finish NOT last than to finish last. However, we're more likely to finish last than any other single team.
Rutgers: 35%
Illinois: 18%
Minnesota: 15%
Iowa: 15%
Northwestern: 10%
Field: 7%
So in other words: I think we're more likely to finish NOT last than to finish last. However, we're more likely to finish last than any other single team.
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