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Jerry Carino: Big 10 2018/19 Predictions

I think Rutgers is only about 30-40% likely to finish last. However, that would still be the biggest number in the conference, so I would have to pick them there. I'd break down chances of finishing last like this, roughly:

Rutgers: 35%
Illinois: 18%
Minnesota: 15%
Iowa: 15%
Northwestern: 10%
Field: 7%

So in other words: I think we're more likely to finish NOT last than to finish last. However, we're more likely to finish last than any other single team.
Good way to look at it
 
Picking us anywhere but last would be borderline insane after finishing there 4 straight years and losing our two best players (arguable, yes).
 
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It's a prediction about this year not last year or the year before. Why not just make the predictions the exact standings from last year then? It's lazy to just pick the team who finished last to finish last again just bc they were last the season before
 
It's a prediction about this year not last year or the year before. Why not just make the predictions the exact standings from last year then? It's lazy to just pick the team who finished last to finish last again just bc they were last the season before

Huh?
 
It's a prediction about this year not last year or the year before. Why not just make the predictions the exact standings from last year then? It's lazy to just pick the team who finished last to finish last again just bc they were last the season before
Lol
 
It's a prediction about this year not last year or the year before. Why not just make the predictions the exact standings from last year then? It's lazy to just pick the team who finished last to finish last again just bc they were last the season before


We were not picked for last place just because we were last place last year. We lost our two leading scorers, one of whom was our best rebounder. Our returning players are near (or at) the bottom of the league as a group. Many teams are expected to improve more than us....AND we are a perennial last place team.

Can we finish better than last?... sure, but most people will pick us last, and it's hard to argue with that until proven otherwise.
 
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It's a prediction about this year not last year or the year before. Why not just make the predictions the exact standings from last year then? It's lazy to just pick the team who finished last to finish last again just bc they were last the season before
Its the pattern of coming in last since joining the B1G that forms perception of those voting.
 
Freeman is not a big loss and Sanders while often good was limited as a PG and three point shooter, plus our 2018 recruiting class is ranked better than seven other Big 10 teams according to Rivals in a sport where freshman play a larger role than in other sports. There is zero chance of us finishing last.
 
Freeman is not a big loss and Sanders while often good was limited as a PG and three point shooter, plus our 2018 recruiting class is ranked better than seven other Big 10 teams according to Rivals in a sport where freshman play a larger role than in other sports. There is zero chance of us finishing last.
Plus Kiss Shaq and Myles who didn't play last year. It's a completely different team
 
Put some respect on Freeman's name! Lol.

But really. Freeman was a great leader and very productive for us. He was 4th on the team in minutes played but was 2nd in scoring, 1st in rebounds, 4th in assists, 1st in blocks, and 1st in steals.

Yes, he took some bad shots, but let's not act like he's not a loss.
 
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I think a lot of the publications look at the stats and returning players to make their picks. It's not an educated selection by most of the media.
 
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There is zero chance of us finishing last.

The chance is certainly higher than zero. While I think Rutgers will be better than last season, I also think the bottom and middle of the conference as a whole will be much improved. Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, and Northwestern were the only conference teams to not finish 4+ games ahead of Rutgers in the standings last season and at least 3 of them (all but Illinois) figure to be improved somewhat significantly (Illinois I just don't know what to think).

It's possible for Rutgers to be moderately improved next season (think a 25-40 spot improvement in KenPom) and still finish in last place in the conference standings.
 
Perennial last place team loses it's two leading scorers, one of whom was the team's leading rebounder. It's only logical to pick us last. It's a great opportunity for Pikiell to prove the "experts" wrong.
I predict he will.
 
I have said this a million times

The easiest stat to replace is ppg. Period

While I would really like to have Corey back and I liked Freeman here, someone gets a turn to score in their departed minutes

It’s the total game that matters when looking at when players lost ...and what the total game of the player replacing the minutes. Plus, does the returning players get better

Like what we are doing...we will be better and think that results in more wins next year
 
If we have good chemistry, still play good D and rebound and start to score, yes. But if one of those hits a bump... I like the depth on this team, but there are a lot of question marks because this so new.
 
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I have said this a million times

The easiest stat to replace is ppg. Period

While I would really like to have Corey back and I liked Freeman here, someone gets a turn to score in their departed minutes

It’s the total game that matters when looking at when players lost ...and what the total game of the player replacing the minutes. Plus, does the returning players get better

Like what we are doing...we will be better and think that results in more wins next year
I was talking to someone about this very topic. Replacing the scoring is easy, but let's not forget about chemistry and defense. Here's what I think Coach Pike addressed with this year's team:

1) more size on the blocks
2) more scoring option on the blocks
3) more size and depth in the backcourt
4) more shooters
5) combo guards who can handle the ball
6) continue to get more athletic to match opponents

I think ball movement will be better and it will lead to better scoring opportunities. Guys like Kiss, Geo or Harper, will likely thrive because of this. It will stretch the floor. When you extend the floor players like Johnson and Eugene will flourish in the paint. Maybe, Carter does too. I think the way Pike teaches defense the backcourt length will create some easy scoring opportunities off of turnovers. I know this team has questions, but Pike has shown the ability to have his players cover the basics well and it shows on the court. When I look at some of the other team in the B1G, I see guys relying more on athletic ability than a combo of that with a good basketball IQ.
 
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I have said this a million times

The easiest stat to replace is ppg. Period
. . .
One, there is nothing easy about scoring. It’s the most sought after thing, the thing that coaches work hardest against each other for in recruiting. For Rutgers, it’s been crazy hard. Scoring is the very thing that has cemented RU in last place.

Two, replacing scoring doesn't improve RU. It just helps RU not be worse. RU’s D and rebounding were very good. Yet RU finished last. So to improve after losing these players, RU not only has to replace their scoring, RU has to then add more. And maintain the D and rebounding. Maybe. But of course they were picked last.
 
In the end we'll wind up missing Sanders' rebounding and defense on the ball more than anything else. Offensively, he was very little threat from three, couldn't go left, and didn't have great vision on the court.
 
I have said this a million times

The easiest stat to replace is ppg. Period

While I would really like to have Corey back and I liked Freeman here, someone gets a turn to score in their departed minutes

It’s the total game that matters when looking at when players lost ...and what the total game of the player replacing the minutes. Plus, does the returning players get better

Like what we are doing...we will be better and think that results in more wins next year

It may be easy to replace a below average PPG. To replace PPG that will get the program and team mates their wins, that is entirely a different task.

PPG have never been easy for Rutgers.
 
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