this man needs to be dragged on twitter by all of us. He hasnt responded when i blew his argument about Oklahoma State in 2018...he has yet to find an example like RU. Its a totally never before seen resume and he cannot handle it
Jerry Palm- RU First 4 out
- Thread starter RutgersLarry
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You may need to apologize to those with autism.
i don't think he's capable of responding, i actually think he doesn't have all of his marbles if you know what I mean
It’s a poor choice of words, because someone on the autistic spectrum working with all of this data would do a better job of recognizing the patterns of the Quad wins and losses and not show anywhere near the inconsistency Palm exhibits in his reasoning.
Consider the source....Jerry Palm is the 85th most accurate bracketologist......see link
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
@bactotherac - you should be ranked in there - Brad Wachtel has a ranking of #4 - very impressive.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
@bactotherac - you should be ranked in there - Brad Wachtel has a ranking of #4 - very impressive.
By his logic, next year we should schedule 3 road games against teams in the lower half of quad 4. Beating those teams in their gym by 2 points is better in his eyes than losing at PSU, Illinois, Maryland, etc by single digits. Ass hat indeed.
That’s actually a pretty bad statement some individuals with Autism have brilliant minds when it comes to analytics, math, memory etc.
Am I right in thinking he's alone on keeping us out at this point? Can't tell if it's click bait or he's just stupid. Maybe the link posted above by @Sideline20 answers my question.
yeah apparently anyone can apply so it might be time over the summer to jump in. Not to toot my own horn but I got the field perfect last year and Jerry and Joe didnt.
he is basically alone...some have RU in first 4..remember many take their cues from him and Joe as they are the two most prominent bracketolgists.
Bac you have to absolutely join then. You can make a name for yourself with this stuff and you already put in the time and effort.
the most accurate bracketologist is bracketville, which right now has us as a 10 seed and #2 in last 4 byes. sign me up
yeah i never actually look too much at Bracketmatrix because I really spend alot of time doing my stuff on my own without looking at anyone elses. When I am done I will compare with Joe/Jerry/De Courcy simply because they are the most visible
You have to remember Big 10 is winning TOO MANY Home Games, a BAD metric in the old RPI the thing he has staked his career on.
Home record
ACC 171-71 70.6%
Big 12 108-38 74%(Kansas St 8-7, OSU 9-6)
Big East 120-40 75%(G'town 10-7)
Pac 12 146-41 78.1%(Washington 10-7)
SEC 169-57% 74.8%(Vandy 9-10)
Big 10(w/out NW,Neb) 159-33 82.8%
w/(9-22) 168-55 75.3%
RPI(25% your win%/50% oppo win%/25% oppo-oppo win %) gives more credit winning a road game (1.4) against a 12-17 UNC, you lose road game (0.6) or winning a home games (0.6) against 23-7 Md, you lose home game (1.4). You win a road game vs an opponent with a lot of road wins, double credit. RPI's Q1 = 1-50, Q2 = 51-100, Q3 = 101-200, Q4 = 200+. It's dumb metric, our top 2 in RPI is Md. 13 and MSU is 25.
That's why RPI is gone and Palm is the new relic.
Home record
ACC 171-71 70.6%
Big 12 108-38 74%(Kansas St 8-7, OSU 9-6)
Big East 120-40 75%(G'town 10-7)
Pac 12 146-41 78.1%(Washington 10-7)
SEC 169-57% 74.8%(Vandy 9-10)
Big 10(w/out NW,Neb) 159-33 82.8%
w/(9-22) 168-55 75.3%
RPI(25% your win%/50% oppo win%/25% oppo-oppo win %) gives more credit winning a road game (1.4) against a 12-17 UNC, you lose road game (0.6) or winning a home games (0.6) against 23-7 Md, you lose home game (1.4). You win a road game vs an opponent with a lot of road wins, double credit. RPI's Q1 = 1-50, Q2 = 51-100, Q3 = 101-200, Q4 = 200+. It's dumb metric, our top 2 in RPI is Md. 13 and MSU is 25.
That's why RPI is gone and Palm is the new relic.
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A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Youre right. I was moreso think of their tendency to get obsessed with one thing which it seems he has with the road wins
Two more bullets to that analysis. What other team:
- had 17 wins, or greater than a 94% winning percentage, at Home
- beat 2 Top 10 teams by double digits
Bac, I sure hope you join. maybe by chance you can still get in this season. You could become famous and get on many of the networks.
Does Jerry Palm get paid for this work? It’s bush league analysis in that he confuses correlation with causation.
His statement that “It is the most reliable indicator for at-large selection in all that time” has as strong of a causation link as if he were to say “the team must have at least 1 Senior” or “the team must have at least 1 Assistant Coach”
His statement that “It is the most reliable indicator for at-large selection in all that time” has as strong of a causation link as if he were to say “the team must have at least 1 Senior” or “the team must have at least 1 Assistant Coach”
3 wins at minimum makes perfect sense............for teams with more than 1 loss at home. Going 18-1 is a huge accomplishment. Follow that with beating 4 top 25 teams by plus 10 each game. Enough said!
Below is a link to Bartovik's team sheet for Rutgers. BART is more bullish on us than most, but they have us at 98.4% tournament odds and between an 8 and 9 seed today.
http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Rutgers
http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Rutgers
You know what’s no fun? Writing something on social media and no one reacts
you know what is a lot of fun? Writing something on the internet and everyone loses their collective shit over it.
you know what is a lot of fun? Writing something on the internet and everyone loses their collective shit over it.
Palm's take is that basically eliminates RU right off the bat...meaning any school they are group together and compared with, RU will always be voted down. He is using the road mark as a non starter. Without specific criteria that says you need x amount of road wins, he is analyzing the resume based on history alone rather than introducing variables of why this could be different. He is simply going with historical percentages, until he is burned like he got burned with 14 loss teams and then again when 15 loss teams got bids
The notion that the raw number of wins away from home is so important is interesting. We had only two opportunities to win away from home against teams out of the current top 25, both very early in the season. SHU, for example, had 10 opportunities to pick up road wins against teams out of the top 25, blowing 4 of them.
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The thing I don’t understand is if it’s so hard to win on the road (it is ) then shouldn’t the opposite apply true as well ? I’d it’s hard to win on the road , shouldn’t it be easier to win at home , and shouldn’t teams gets penalized for losing at home , specifically to bad teams ? For instance , Cincy is above us in palm , but lost to ucf and Colgate at home . Richmond lost to Radford and St. Louis st home . If it’s so hard to win on the road , then y are lesser teams beating teams above us on their home court ? Why has Rutgers not suffered to defeat tj lesser teams at home and beaten 7 tourney teams at home ?
Jerry Palm uses his own model, and if you work with models, you understand that there’s no such thing as a perfect model, and that model configuration is VERY subjective. The degree of weight for each variable in the model is a judgement call.
There is always a degree of error. My guess is, Rutgers Basketballs situation is a blind spot for Palms model, and he’s not about to reconfigure his model, in the heat of March madness, just to accommodate Rutgers Situation, which is unique.
the 3 win stipulation is a requirement in most instances, but because Rutgers has extenuating circumstances, this probably doesn’t apply in our case.
he’s not going to admit that his model has a deficiency. Let this go. Don’t take his model so seriously, and enjoy the ride. That Jerry Palm doesn’t have us in the tournament isn’t a big deal.
Hopefully, hell improve his model in the offseason to cover situations like ours.
There is always a degree of error. My guess is, Rutgers Basketballs situation is a blind spot for Palms model, and he’s not about to reconfigure his model, in the heat of March madness, just to accommodate Rutgers Situation, which is unique.
the 3 win stipulation is a requirement in most instances, but because Rutgers has extenuating circumstances, this probably doesn’t apply in our case.
he’s not going to admit that his model has a deficiency. Let this go. Don’t take his model so seriously, and enjoy the ride. That Jerry Palm doesn’t have us in the tournament isn’t a big deal.
Hopefully, hell improve his model in the offseason to cover situations like ours.
To summarize...
Palm does not possess critical thinking skills and thus is ranked very low in his accuracy predicting brackets yet is considering a professional and is getting paid for his analysis.
Bac uses a variety of data points and critical thinking skills and got zero incorrect on his bracket last year and is not a professional and does not get paid.
Bac, start submitting your brackets. Take your posts and put them on a website or blog. Post it on twitter. Gain followers and get paid. You deserve it more than this clown
Palm does not possess critical thinking skills and thus is ranked very low in his accuracy predicting brackets yet is considering a professional and is getting paid for his analysis.
Bac uses a variety of data points and critical thinking skills and got zero incorrect on his bracket last year and is not a professional and does not get paid.
Bac, start submitting your brackets. Take your posts and put them on a website or blog. Post it on twitter. Gain followers and get paid. You deserve it more than this clown
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Exactly. To compare apples to apples, how many teams with 18-1 home records and 1-12 away/neutral (should we lose 2 more) records have there bin, especially those with 7 wins against likely tourney teams, and featuring a NET of ~35 and not a single bad loss? None probably. My guess is that anyone who dives into our resume and sees us beating 7 teams in the field and losing only to top 35 NET teams on the road, with all but one of those in single digits, with most being down to the wire, will know we belong. But guys like this have to worry us at least a little, since others might share his view.
So it took less than 24 hours for these fans to again add criteria that is not a requirement for the NCAAs. Oy vey.....!!! LMAO
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