Joe Lunardi's Updated Way-Too-Early Bracketology

[knightfan7]

Men's Bracketology: Kelvin Sampson has Houston pointing toward another deep run

Is Houston underrated coming off back-to-back No. 1 seeds and four straight second-weekend appearances in the NCAA tournament?

www.espn.com

 

[RRRRUUUU]

GTFOH. Last 4 in.

 

[knightfan7]

GTFOH. Last 4 in.

Last 4 Byes, not last 4 in.

 

[TheHandOfChaos]

A 10 seed would be a disastrous disappointment considering we have 2 lottery picks

 

[RRRRUUUU]

No respect

 

[Knight Owl]

Seems reasonable and would imply that a run in the BIG18TEN Tournament could do wonders.
A 15-5 record in conference might be a lot to ask even if they do very well at home. But by the end of the season they should be peaking and playing well.

 

[knightfan7]

First thing is you have to do is make sure you're in, then you worry about the seed.

 

[nutfromSEC117]

 

[Mr Magoo]

Men's Bracketology: Kelvin Sampson has Houston pointing toward another deep run

Is Houston underrated coming off back-to-back No. 1 seeds and four straight second-weekend appearances in the NCAA tournament?

www.espn.com

So many unknowns but seems about right for now.

 

[Brisket and Bourbon]

🤦🏻‍♂️

 

[RutgHoops]

Lunardi's bracket has the following for our league: PU (4), IU (5), UCLA (6), Ill (7), MSU (7), Mich (8), RU (10), MD (11), Ore (11). That's NINE bids for the league. No dominant team but there are a bunch of good to very good teams. And while I think Lunardi has Rutgers a bit low the teams he ranks ahead of us all have a decent case for being pretty darn good.

B1G is going to be very interesting this year.

 

[knights1212]

At this point I think this is fair. We must play every game as well as we can. We are in a very good league and we have 9 new players. Just because we have two possible lottery picks doesn't mean we will be playing our very best right from the beginning. We all want to go far after qualifying for the NCAA but there are so many good teams also thinking they will do well. Hoping for a great start, staying healthy and enjoying a wonderful season which we can all enjoy and look back on for a long time with great pride.

 

[lion1983]

At this point I think this is fair. We must play every game as well as we can. We are in a very good league and we have 9 new players. Just because we have two possible lottery picks doesn't mean we will be playing our very best right from the beginning. We all want to go far after qualifying for the NCAA but there are so many good teams also thinking they will do well. Hoping for a great start, staying healthy and enjoying a wonderful season which we can all enjoy and look back on for a long time with great pride.

I agree ... and with RutgHoops.

RU COULD do better ... and worse, also. This is a weird time for college basketball. SO many transfers, so many VETERAN transfers on so many teams, - including or especially in the Big Ten, that although normally two top 10 (let alone top 5) freshman on one team might indicate a top 15 ranked team, you just cannot know this year.

In a strange way, I'd rather have a 10 seed than an 8 or 9 seed - always want to avoid a #1 seed in the 2nd round. Being a 10 seed is very advantageous, actually: the difference between 10's and 7's are usually small, and it sets up a match-up with a #2 seed next - tough but not necessarily a dominant team ... and therefore a chance for a run. Obviously, a 6 or 7 seed would be better ...we shall see. First you gotta make it at all!

 

[BillyC80]

This is fine for now. Better for our guys to enter the season with something to prove, maybe with a little chip on their shoulder. Let others go ahead and underestimate RU, at their own peril.

 

[RutgHoops]

I agree ... and with RutgHoops.

RU COULD do better ... and worse, also. This is a weird time for college basketball. SO many transfers, so many VETERAN transfers on so many teams, - including or especially in the Big Ten, that although normally two top 10 (let alone top 5) freshman on one team might indicate a top 15 ranked team, you just cannot know this year.

In a strange way, I'd rather have a 10 seed than an 8 or 9 seed - always want to avoid a #1 seed in the 2nd round. Being a 10 seed is very advantageous, actually: the difference between 10's and 7's are usually small, and it sets up a match-up with a #2 seed next - tough but not necessarily a dominant team ... and therefore a chance for a run. Obviously, a 6 or 7 seed would be better ...we shall see. First you gotta make it at all!

Here is MY case for why we will be better than Lunardi and many other experts seem to believe. Since the 2018 frosh class (Zion, RJ Barrett, etc.) many of the subsequent freshman classes have been pretty "meh". And even in the "good classes" no team was able to bring in multiple Top 10 kids since that '18 Duke squad. Anthony Edwards in '19 went to Georgia and the rest of the class headliners were James Wiseman, Isiah Stewart and Cole Anthony. The '20 class was the first where kids like Jalen Green and Kaminga went G League over college. Although Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes made for a pretty darn good class of college frosh. '21 was also darn good with Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith amongst others. The '22 AND '23 classes were both bereft of high level talent (imo).

I think this '24 class is more akin to the '18 and '21 class than the others ('20 class being a bit of an outlier with the G-League kids). And since that '18 Duke team it appears we are the first to have brought in TWO high level kids to the same team in what I believe is a stacked high school class. Now, that '18-'19 Duke team was off the charts good (one of the five or six best CBB teams I have ever seen...and I am 57) and I think it is silly to say we will be that level good. But I think with back to back "meh" high school classes many pundits are underestimating how much talent is coming to Rutgers this year. Yes, nine new players is a big challenge. The league is always tough. But Ace and Harper are next level talent (imo) and I think we are closer to Top 20 than we are to bubble. Time will tell.

 

[RU-ROCS]

Here is MY case for why we will be better than Lunardi and many other experts seem to believe. Since the 2018 frosh class (Zion, RJ Barrett, etc.) many of the subsequent freshman classes have been pretty "meh". And even in the "good classes" no team was able to bring in multiple Top 10 kids since that '18 Duke squad. Anthony Edwards in '19 went to Georgia and the rest of the class headliners were James Wiseman, Isiah Stewart and Cole Anthony. The '20 class was the first where kids like Jalen Green and Kaminga went G League over college. Although Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes made for a pretty darn good class of college frosh. '21 was also darn good with Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith amongst others. The '22 AND '23 classes were both bereft of high level talent (imo).

I think this '24 class is more akin to the '18 and '21 class than the others ('20 class being a bit of an outlier with the G-League kids). And since that '18 Duke team it appears we are the first to have brought in TWO high level kids to the same team in what I believe is a stacked high school class. Now, that '18-'19 Duke team was off the charts good (one of the five or six best CBB teams I have ever seen...and I am 57) and I think it is silly to say we will be that level good. But I think with back to back "meh" high school classes many pundits are underestimating how much talent is coming to Rutgers this year. Yes, nine new players is a big challenge. The league is always tough. But Ace and Harper are next level talent (imo) and I think we are closer to Top 20 than we are to bubble. Time will tell.

Some good points, but Duke brought in FOUR five stars in '18 and thery were surrounded with other high-4 and 5 star talent. Not so for RU. Apples v. Oranges.

 

[fatsam98]

@bac2therac where do you have us in your August bracket?

 

[dconifer]

With all the hype, I get how this seems like a low-ball assessment. But Joe Lunardi had been watching high school phenoms for decades, so he's probably built up a bit of cynicism. These two players are not going to put up the kind of numbers they did in high school against 16-year old YMCA-level kids, which seems to be what some are expecting (probably some of the same people who opined last year that Don Bosco High could beat Wagner University in football). They'll be playing night after night against grown-ass men good enough to play P4 basketball. It'll be tougher for them.

Maryland had a so-called one-and-done player last year. After all the hype, he ended up averaging about 8 points a game, and that was with a strong finish. He's a good kid, and I think he'll blossom this year, but he definitely had to adjust his game. You could see him try the things that worked in high school and fall flat on his face with the same moves in college. A few years earlier Maryland had a kid who was so dominant in high school that he skipped his senior year out of boredom and enrolled in college early. I think he finished his career in D2.

When I was in high school I can only remember one wrestling opponent who was stronger than me. But in D3 wrestling, as a college freshman, a lot of twenty-three year old seniors threw this 18 year old freshman around like a rag doll. The expression "Men against boys" didn't come out of thin air.

Don't get me wrong, even though I'm a Maryland guy, I hope these two players rule the court, and Rutgers makes the Final Four. I really would love that. I've been a Rutgers fan ever since my high school classmate went to play basketball at Rutgers in the eighties, and I didn't even know where Rutgers was. But I'm not sure everybody is being realistic about the impact that these two freshmen will have.

Hopefully you all can rub this post in my face next winter, ha ha.

 

[RutgHoops]

Some good points, but Duke brought in FOUR five stars in '18 and thery were surrounded with other high-4 and 5 star talent. Not so for RU. Apples v. Oranges.

You are correct that Duke had four 5* frosh (Zion, Barrett, Reddish and Tre Jones) who not surprisingly were their four leading scorers. And while Marques Bolden, Alex O'Connell and Javin DeLaurier were good HS prospects I assume we would agree they were not "elite" college players.

I guess my high level point, and I sure as heck could be wrong, is I think Ace and Cooper Flagg are the best high school players since Zion/Anthony Edwards/ Chet Holmgren. And I am not sure since Zion/RJ has a college team brought in a better 1-2 than Ace and Dylan. That is why I think we will be better than many think. Not '18-19 Duke good because as you wrote they had NBA talent beyond Zion/RJ and it does not appear Rutgers "24-'25 has that depth of elite talent. Time will tell.

 

[RU-ROCS]

You are correct that Duke had four 5* frosh (Zion, Barrett, Reddish and Tre Jones) who not surprisingly were their four leading scorers. And while Marques Bolden, Alex O'Connell and Javin DeLaurier were good HS prospects I assume we would agree they were not "elite" college players.

I guess my high level point, and I sure as heck could be wrong, is I think Ace and Cooper Flagg are the best high school players since Zion/Anthony Edwards/ Chet Holmgren. And I am not sure since Zion/RJ has a college team brought in a better 1-2 than Ace and Dylan. That is why I think we will be better than many think. Time will tell.

Here's to hoping your're right! (FWIW, Bolden was a 5-star recruit and is still in the NBA, and DeLaurier had a cup of cofee there too. So they are both likely better than anyone in RU's supporting cast.)

 

[Degaz-RU]

With all the hype, I get how this seems like a low-ball assessment. But Joe Lunardi had been watching high school phenoms for decades, so he's probably built up a bit of cynicism. These two players are not going to put up the kind of numbers they did in high school against 16-year old YMCA-level kids, which seems to be what some are expecting (probably some of the same people who opined last year that Don Bosco High could beat Wagner University in football). They'll be playing night after night against grown-ass men good enough to play P4 basketball. It'll be tougher for them.

Maryland had a so-called one-and-done player last year. After all the hype, he ended up averaging about 8 points a game, and that was with a strong finish. He's a good kid, and I think he'll blossom this year, but he definitely had to adjust his game. You could see him try the things that worked in high school and fall flat on his face with the same moves in college. A few years earlier Maryland had a 5 star kid who was so dominant in high school that he skipped his senior year out of boredom and enrolled in college early. I think he finished his career in D2.

When I was in high school I can only remember one wrestling opponent who was stronger than me. But in D3 wrestling, as a college freshman, a lot of twenty-three year old seniors threw this 18 year old freshman around like a rag doll. The expression "Men against boys" didn't come out of thin air.

Don't get me wrong, even though I'm a Maryland guy, I hope these two players rule the court, and Rutgers makes the Final Four. I really would love that. I've been a Rutgers fan ever since my high school classmate went to play basketball at Rutgers in the eighties, and I didn't even know where Rutgers was. But I'm not sure everybody is being realistic about the impact that these two freshmen will have.

Hopefully you all can rub this post in my face next winter, ha ha.

Fair point on these cautionary tales. But I don't think Harris-Smith is a valid comparator, as he was a 4-star ranked #37 last year, not a top three in the country 5-star, so, although he may have wanted to be "one and done," that wasn't very realistic. I'm not sure who the 5-star kid is who you're referring to from a few years earlier, as the only 5-star I see who committed to MD dating back to 2018 is Sticks Smith (who was #24 and was a legit star, but was not one & done.).

There really isn't a valid comparison in recent memory of two top 3 national recruits -- who are also on most draft boards as top 5 NBA lottery picks for next year -- playing together on the same team. You'd have to look at classes at Duke, KY, UNC over the past several years to find a comparison.

I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong to temper expectations about the impact Ace and Dylan can have here. The cautionary tales are well taken. But I think it's more likely than not that they lead Rutgers to a top 6 seed in the NCAA tournament, if not better.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

I'd sign for a 10-seed right now.

 

[RRRRUUUU]

I would not sign up for anything higher than a 4 seed.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The question I have with Ace....he may have loads of talent and may be a future NBA All star. That doesn't mean he single handedly elevates a B1G team whose program has been built on defense.

I know All Star HS games are not a great gauge. He isn't sniffing 30% from 3 with the shot selection I saw.

Can Harper and Bailey prosper and be efficient within the confines of an offense. This all comes down to how many points we score in each possession. Bailey and Harper can score 45 PPG, but if we are in the low 1.00s PPP we are going to struggle to finish at. 500

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

But I think it's more likely than not that they lead Rutgers to a top 6 seed in the NCAA tournament, if not better.

What do you expect our B1G road record to be?

How many losses do you expect in Nov and Dec
Neutral
ND
Bama
Houston
Princeton

Home
Seton Hall
B1G opponent

Road
B1G opponent

You have to be thinking 3 (1 that is B1G road)
Go 5-5 on road
8-2 at home
no cupcake losses

22-9

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The question I have with Ace....he may have loads of talent and may be a future NBA All star. That doesn't mean he single handedly elevates a B1G team whose program has been built on defense.

I know All Star HS games are not a great gauge. He isn't sniffing 30% from 3 with the shot selection I saw.

Can Harper and Bailey prosper and be efficient within the confines of an offense. This all comes down to how many points we score in each possession. Bailey and Harper can score 45 PPG, but if we are in the low 1.00s PPP we are going to struggle to finish at. 500

I think you may be underestimating the potential Ace has on D - or rather, simply not considering it. AAU is different but even in the limited highlight clips for Pike you can see that Ace knows how to use his agility to do things on both ends. Your right - he’s a frosh. He’s going to take some bad shots, but I think there’s a reasonable chance that Ace and Dylan are laser focused right now on branding themselves as elite defenders. Thats the reason to choose rutgers. It’s what we are known for. And while you hate NIL, try to be motivated by the reality that these guys didn’t choose us because we were the highest ticket - they almost certainly gave up money to come to Rutgers as they could’ve gone literally anywhere including schools with unlimitedly deep pockets. Have a little faith at least until we see them in action in the exhibition.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I don't hate the players getting paid..I hate the way they are getting paid.

Need to find a way to come up with a workable solution. QR codes on helmets for money is a BIG turn off, at least to me.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

but I think there’s a reasonable chance that Ace and Dylan are laser focused right now on branding themselves as elite defenders. Thats the reason to choose rutgers. It’s what we are known for.

I can totally see this.....they can't play 34 MPG as freshman, going all in on most defensive possessions, and knock down shots at a high percentage on the other end, especially later in games.

I will add, and you will probably agree, especially if Harper is tasked as the primary point guard.

Harper is going to need to be in better shape than he was in high school.

 

[toby83]

Harper is going to need to be in better shape than he was in high school.

Agree with this. He doesn't have off the charts athleticism Bailey has so it's more important.
Williams is the key this year he has to be the glue guy and in big spots on road the freshman are are going to struggle at times. If Williams plays selfless and can handle the attn the frosh are getting, could be a decent year.