Last night was our worst defensive night since November 16, 2019.....but

[PSAL_Hoops]

the numbers other than the last 5 minutes tell a complete opposite picture.

Funny how our view of things change when the outcome goes a certain way.

I include myself....i didn't get the sense we were bad defensively, but when you go back and look at the data (and film) we were bad.

There were 64 possessions and we gave up 82 points...this is fact and not opinion. Nebraska was not red hot shooting both from 3 and the FT line.

The defensive numbers to close out both halves was very good. Last 5 minutes of both halves we gave up 13 combined points (I’m not sure the possession count but that had to be solid).

Actually - if you break the game down by 5 minute intervals the first 5 minutes of each half and minutes 30-35 stand out as particularly awful. Adjusted over a 40 minute game, we’d have given up 98.7 points over that 15 minute span (which I’m thinking probably correlates almost directly with Lathan’s 15 minutes - his D has improved some in the past few games but stepped back a mile in this one, he was awful). In the other 25 minutes of the game we gave up 68.8 points over an adjusted 40 minutes. I get that points aren’t everything since pace varies over the course of a game but this is a very telling difference.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

That is exactly why the stats are important. We play the rest of the way with that defensive efficiency we will lose every game and get blown out of most.

Just like if you are a FB team and your defense gives up 5 TD and 2 FGs on 9 possessions you probably aren't going to win. No different.

It is a big ask to have your offense score on almost every possession (FB talk).

You want to tell me our D wasn't bad because a DB slipped on one. Ref called a pass interference on another that was questionable. That is fine.

Still they scored 83 point on 64 possessions. Our offense has to score 84 points on 64 possessions to win. End of story. How often against a Top 20 defense is our offense going to score 1.3 points per possession?

That hypothetical is exactly right. B hypothetically it was lousy defense. In reality they stepped up, made key stops, kept the game within reach for a while, then out of reach for Nebbie. While perhaps not efficient, that is excellent defense.

I'd rather have a team win every game by one point that have gaudy efficiency stats with blowout wins and close losses.

Efficiency is not quality. It is not what we play to achieve. It is a short hand that sometimes captures quality. And sometimes doesn't.

I love metrics. I just refuse to believe th3m being their validity.

Metrics are my business. Efficiency stats are problematic.

Loyal

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Yes, yes they are. Because the defensive efficiency just night was perfectly fine within the game but looks terrible. Context defines what is and is not efficient. Assuming the goal still is to win the game and not the statistics.

It reminds me of Simpson's paradox...
L

I learned what Simpson's paradox is.

I initially thought it was something made up by @G- RUnit

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

That hypothetical is exactly right. B hypothetically it was lousy defense. In reality they stepped up, made key stops, kept the game within reach for a while, then out of reach for Nebbie. While perhaps not efficient, that is excellent defense.

I'd rather have a team win every game by one point that have gaudy efficiency stats with blowout wins and close losses.

Efficiency is not quality. It is not what we play to achieve. It is a short hand that sometimes captures quality. And sometimes doesn't.

I love metrics. I just refuse to believe th3m being their validity.

Metrics are my business. Efficiency stats are problematic.

Loyal

efficiency stats aren't net net going to be gaudy winning close games. all efficiency stats look at is points scored and points allowed relTIVE TO POSSESSIONS AND STRNGTH OF OPPONENT ON BOTH ENDS OF THE COURT. sorry for caps

 

[RU_DIO]

To me the eye test says our defense was much better yesterday and last game than it was during a good portion of games this year.

Our guys were hustling and more connected than they've been for much of the year.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Defense wasn’t the best last night, specifically the start of the game and the 2nd half.

But no stat or analytics can make me believe that was actually our worst defensive effort since 2019.

We’ve had worse efforts this year.

Minutes 30-35 of the game was pretty bad too. We gave up 14 points during that interval. Over the course of a full game that scoring rate would mean 112 points.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

this was a slow paced game. a rock fight with pillows

 

[fluoxetine]

Yes, yes they are. Because the defensive efficiency just night was perfectly fine within the game but looks terrible. Context defines what is and is not efficient. Assuming the goal still is to win the game and not the statistics.

It reminds me of Simpson's paradox...
L

You are not making sense. Yes, in the context of “we scored even more points” the bad defense didn’t matter but other than that this is gibberish

 

[fluoxetine]

People talk about efficiency as if it’s this weird advanced stat no one understands when it’s literally just points scored and allowed but scaled to be per possession instead of per minute.

You can’t “lose with gaudy efficiency stats” that’s not a thing. People should really have an understanding of something if they want to criticize it.

 

[RUJMM78]

There were a couple times when guys messed up a switch or got lost helping off of their man but I feel like these guys were playing good defense last night. And tightened up when they had to in crucial moments. Need ogbole to keep improving so a team with a good center can't wreck the game but besides post defense I like the effort. Just some talented offensive players and idk I guess they know scouts are watching because there's always a guy making some crazy shots against RU.

Nebraska scoring was mostly from foul shots and 3 pointers but they had a scoring drought near end of game that gave Rutgers a two/three possession lead.

 

[RUChoppin]

People talk about efficiency as if it’s this weird advanced stat no one understands when it’s literally just points scored and allowed but scaled to be per possession instead of per minute.

You can’t “lose with gaudy efficiency stats” that’s not a thing. People should really have an understanding of something if they want to criticize it.

The challenge is using efficiency across just a single game as if it's meaningful. That runs into the same problem as other single-game metrics, which is that the numbers are too small. It was 64 possessions. Some people are even taking this down to specific 5-minute spans in a game!

In a given game, any number of factors can result in a lot of variance. The player who gets hot and hits a ton of threes in the face of stiff defense. The game we bungle several wide open layups. The tight whistle game where an opponent was hot from the FT line, or where we went ice cold. The game where their star player was out or missed most of the game due to health/foul trouble. Etc.

Over the course of a season, the variance smooths itself out.

Looking only at a single game, defensive efficiency doesn't necessarily speak to how good or bad the defense was - you can give up a lot of points in a game where you've played great defense if the other team gets hot, and you can hold a team to fewer points than their average in a game where you've played poor defense if the other team is cold. Over 30 games in a season, those factors smooth out.

As Pike says, sometimes the shots fall, and sometimes they don't. If you take more good shots, you'd expect more of them to fall - but that's not always the case in the microcosm of a single game. And if you force more bad shots, you'd expect more of them to miss - but that's not always the case in a single game,e ither.

 

[fluoxetine]

The challenge is using efficiency across just a single game as if it's meaningful. That runs into the same problem as other single-game metrics, which is that the numbers are too small. It was 64 possessions. Some people are even taking this down to specific 5-minute spans in a game!

In a given game, any number of factors can result in a lot of variance. The player who gets hot and hits a ton of threes in the face of stiff defense. The game we bungle several wide open layups. The tight whistle game where an opponent was hot from the FT line, or where we went ice cold. The game where their star player was out or missed most of the game due to health/foul trouble. Etc.

Over the course of a season, the variance smooths itself out.

Looking only at a single game, defensive efficiency doesn't necessarily speak to how good or bad the defense was - you can give up a lot of points in a game where you've played great defense if the other team gets hot, and you can hold a team to fewer points than their average in a game where you've played poor defense if the other team is cold. Over 30 games in a season, those factors smooth out.

As Pike says, sometimes the shots fall, and sometimes they don't. If you take more good shots, you'd expect more of them to fall - but that's not always the case in the microcosm of a single game. And if you force more bad shots, you'd expect more of them to miss - but that's not always the case in a single game,e ither.

Yeah but that’s a sample size thing; nothing to do with the statistic itself.

 

[RUChoppin]

Yeah but that’s a sample size thing; nothing to do with the statistic itself.

Yes - but saying something like "worst defensive night" is using a macro statistic on a small sample size (smaller in this game's case, due to the slightly slower pace)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Yes - but saying something like "worst defensive night" is using a macro statistic on a small sample size (smaller in this game's case, due to the slightly slower pace)

sensationalism to get clicks! It works.

I am thinking saying our adjusted defensive efficiency was 3 standard deviations off of the average Pikiell D team would not do it for most.

In other news NCAA has taken Villanova's title away because of sample size. No way Villanova would have beaten Georgetown in a 150 possession game.

 

[fluoxetine]

Yes - but saying something like "worst defensive night" is using a macro statistic on a small sample size (smaller in this game's case, due to the slightly slower pace)

It’s the worst results. That doesn’t necessarily imply it’s the worst execution (RUDivision will tell you otherwise).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It’s the worst results. That doesn’t necessarily imply it’s the worst execution (RUDivision will tell you otherwise).

not me....

 

[RUPete]

People talk about efficiency as if it’s this weird advanced stat no one understands when it’s literally just points scored and allowed but scaled to be per possession instead of per minute.

You can’t “lose with gaudy efficiency stats” that’s not a thing. People should really have an understanding of something if they want to criticize it.

I think people get upset because they know GRF is right and his posts are rooted in hard data, but they want to enjoy the win for a minute. I can’t get mad at him because he’s correct and I actually learn from his and your posts, just wish he’d let the win breathe for a little while.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

When we win with our worst offensive game of the year I'll afford you time to breathe....hoping it is Monday.

 

[RUPete]

When we win with our worst offensive game of the year I'll afford you time to breathe....hoping it is Monday.

I’ll just go ahead and suffocate then. As you were…

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I’ll just go ahead and suffocate then. As you were…

You really should get some oxygen or use Ace and Dylan's inhaler so you can focus on Penn State.

While on topic RU athletics may want to consider not using the smoke machine. Those who are slightly breathing impaired could be slightly impacted. Thousght of this when i saw Ace using the inhaler early one game.

 

[RUPete]

You really should get some oxygen or use Ace and Dylan's inhaler so you can focus on Penn State.

While on topic RU athletics may want to consider not using the smoke machine. Those who are slightly breathing impaired could be slightly impacted. Thousght of this when i saw Ace using the inhaler early one game.

You are taking this way too seriously. I was actually complimenting your posts but in true GRF fashion you only highlight the negative. I suggest you take a deep breath.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Tip #3: Avoid smoke and fog machines​

Smoke and fog machines are often used on Halloween to create a creepy atmosphere at parties and in haunted houses. Unfortunately, they can cause breathing problems in those with respiratory allergies and asthma.

Some fog machines use a solution of water mixed with glycol, glycerin or mineral oil, which can trigger breathing problems including coughing, wheezing, chest tightness and shortness of breath.
To create the spooky effect, some machines use a solution of water mixed with glycol, glycerin or mineral oil. These chemicals can trigger breathing problems in allergy and asthma sufferers including coughing, wheezing, chest tightness and shortness of breath. To be safe, it’s best for people with allergies and asthma to stay out of rooms where smoke and fog machines are being used in order to avoid these potential triggers.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You are taking this way too seriously. I was actually complimenting your posts but in true GRF fashion you only highlight the negative. I suggest you take a deep breath.

my attempt at humor failed I guess, Not joking about the smoke machine though.

Trust me I was very happy with the win. Love the fact we were tougher than a tough team. Love seeing Ace being a more well rounded player. Filling up the OREB, BLK and ASST columns is huge. That is what gets us to a Top 20 team the rest of the way

 

[fluoxetine]

When we win with our worst offensive game of the year I'll afford you time to breathe....hoping it is Monday.

I hope we don’t have our worst offensive game on Monday.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I hope we don’t have our worst offensive game on Monday.

that would be real bad......unless it is enough points to have us win.

 

[RUPete]

my attempt at humor failed I guess, Not joking about the smoke machine though.

Trust me I was very happy with the win. Love the fact we were tougher than a tough team. Love seeing Ace being a more well rounded player. Filling up the OREB, BLK and ASST columns is huge. That is what gets us to a Top 20 team the rest of the way

Sorry I didn’t catch it. Know that you are one of the best fans here even though you did a mea culpa on my man Roy Hinson. 😎

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

PSU is 83rd in defensive efficiency. In a 66 possession game that is like 48 points looking at the Purdue game as the worst so far.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Sorry I didn’t catch it. Know that you are one of the best fans here even though you did a mea culpa on my man Roy Hinson. 😎

pretty sure i would like to have watched him.

 

[fluoxetine]

that would be real bad......unless it is enough points to have us win.

Oh, then it would be good in context

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

it would be good because that would mean we had our best DEFENSIVE game....again provided we won with our worst offensive game of the year. that would mean we almost pitched a shutout vs PSU

 

[RUDivision]

Rewatching the second half right now, and through seven minutes there have been two defensive possessions that didn’t end in a layup, open 3 or free throws (Juwan Gary push shot and a Morgan post fade, both misses). I think we had fewer glaring breakdowns, but we didn’t really produce good defensive outcomes imo

The actual game? Or a bunch of data streaming on the screen like the matrix?

 

[PhillyRU]

The actual game? Or a bunch of data streaming on the screen like the matrix?

The actual game lol

 

[RUChoppin]

It’s the worst results. That doesn’t necessarily imply it’s the worst execution (RUDivision will tell you otherwise).

Well, the worst points allowed per possession.... I think the results of that game were pretty good :)

I will happily have a terrible points-allowed-per-possession the rest of the season if we win every game between now and April 7th

 

[fluoxetine]

Well, the worst points allowed per possession.... I think the results of that game were pretty good :)

I will happily have a terrible points-allowed-per-possession the rest of the season if we win every game between now and April 7th

Well yeah if we give up a shitload of points and score two shitloads of points I will be perfectly happy but I won’t call it good defense lol

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Yes - but saying something like "worst defensive night" is using a macro statistic on a small sample size (smaller in this game's case, due to the slightly slower pace)

Well, the worst points allowed per possession.... I think the results of that game were pretty good :)

I will happily have a terrible points-allowed-per-possession the rest of the season if we win every game between now and April 7th

I mean sure - if we continue to shoot over 41% from 3 a game maybe, but how likely is that? When was the last time we made 12 3s in a game?

In terms of D, I think you have to break this game down into pocket intervals of 5 mins because there was a very big disparity in the level of D depending on who was on the floor (substitutions around every 5ish minutes)”. Sommerville and Acuff were really bad. Plus / minus on them would be telling.

I think that’s important to note because it means Pike has the horses to slow down an opponent offense when he needs to.

 

[RUChoppin]

I mean sure - if we continue to shoot over 41% from 3 a game maybe, but how likely is that? When was the last time we made 12 3s in a game?

In terms of D, I think you have to break this game down into pocket intervals of 5 mins because there was a very big disparity in the level of D depending on who was on the floor (substitutions around every 5ish minutes)”. Sommerville and Acuff were really bad. Plus / minus on them would be telling.

I think that’s important to note because it means Pike has the horses to slow down an opponent offense when he needs to.

Basketball is also, as they say, a game of runs. There will be swings, sometimes due to personnel and sometimes due to normal statistical variance.

Sommerville had a poor game, definitely. He just never got into any sort of groove and looked uncomfortable out there. Acuff played just 8 minutes.

 

[seels2662]

i think Grant has a lot of potential defensively, but he was making a lot of mental mistakes. Lathan was just straight up bad. We were giving up baseline way too easily

Lathan is straight up bad on most nights. He really stinks right now as a basketball player. Yeah yeah freshman and all but I bet he doesn't stick around for long anyway and we need him now. Unfortunately we are forced to play him because we have no one else.

 

[fluoxetine]

I do not understand all of the Lathan hate. Last night aside, he has not been bad at all for a freshman.