Some general thoughts, fist:
Based on the game with Texas A&M (and Alabama) I am in combination bummed (RU had a legitimate chance to beat both Alabama and Texas A&M, 2 ranked teams - but fell short), encouraged by improvement in various areas, excited about the remaining possibilities for this team, and concerned about the productive depth of the team.
1) 18 W's, 6 L's and 7 Swing games ... I would have had Kennesaw St as a W, and the Vegas 3rd game as a Swing game.
2) So ... I now project a record of 17-8, with 6 additional "swing" games. 3-3 in the swing games and RU is 20-11 (12-8) ... NCAA bound. Not sure what seed.
3) Of the 6 remaining swing games, 3 are at home - vs tough teams (Purdue, Michigan and Illinois), 2 are on the road (Maryland and Washington) and 1 is MSU at MSG.
Players:
Bailey: Excellent game ... 10-20 FG, 10 rebounds, 2 steals (and I actually had him with 2 blocked shots - not sure what happened there) ... he did have 4 turnovers, all in the 1st half, and was just 2-8 from 3. Still, the best player on the court this game (yes, I put him ahead, though by just a hair, of A&M's Taylor). His defense was solid, his rebounding outstanding. And STILL not a ceiling - in other words this type of game may be more likely to be repeatable (unlike Harper's prior 2 games of 36_ points) ... and he WILL have games in which he is even better. You have to be excited and pleased.
Harper: Not as good as the prior 2 games, forced some things at times, shot poorly (even without the forces, he did not shoot as well as he had in the prior 5 games). But in fairness, credit A&M's defense as well - not every team will be able to defend him that well (even Alabama could not - and they are at least a decent defensive team with a lot of athleticism) - with forcing Harper into a 6-20 night ... 2-6 3-pointers ... but 4-4 FT. I did think Harper played solid defense again, and he did have 3 assists while being credited with 0 turnovers, and added 4 rebunds. He WILL have better games, even scoring 18 points. It was not the 18 points, but rather the inefficiency that hurt.
Williams: Wow ... not a repeatable efficiency , as he will NOT go 7-8 FG often. But he was dominant in the 2nd half, when RU needed him - and yes, the 7-8 FG was great (all good shots) - but it was his PRESENCE, being all over the floor, defensively, rebounding and of course taking and making great shots. He did have 4 turnovers - 3 in the 1st half I think., RU NEEDS a 3rd reliable scorer, and Williams has always been the most likely one to do that - and has been that player. Against A&M he was more than that. Kudos to him and his effort.
Derkack: Started - and appears to be a starter. A little stat-stuffing again: 5 Rebounds, 4 assists, a steal, more solid defense than not, but more fouls from his aggression. He is SO athletic, he can keep up with athletic teams both on defense, on the boards and on offense. Only took 3 shots - but again missed a wide open 3. Because he was not going to the basket, no FT's. I am fine with him as starter, and as a significant part of RU's 1st 7-8 rotation. RU WILL need him to hit some shots in games at some point.
Ogbole: Not as good as against Alabama, but respectable, with 6 rebounds. But obviously limited because of fouls - if he could have played 18-20 minutes instead of 14, that would have helped the team. They did not credit him with a missed shot (I thought he missed an alley-oop dunk), but rather gave him the turnover instead ... that was a key moment, I thought, when RU was surging, and it was part of several moments that impeded RU's 2nd half momentum. Still, Ogbole shows he CAN contribute, as long as he stays out of foul trouble.
Sommerville: Lots of potential, especially offensively. Did have 8 points and 4 rebounds. Still weak defensively from a fundamental stand point. Does some really good things and I expect him to keep improving - it may not be in a straight line, though. Still makes some really stupid plays - lets call them freshman mistakes. His reach-in foul with 4 minutes left, RU up 74-72, was REALLY bad, and a huge error that cost RU a lot: 2-2 FT plus his 5th foul.
The rest: Martini - covered it above, really poor game, both defensively, and with REALLY bad turnovers at HUGE moments, 0-2 FT, no 3-point attempts (because he kept fumbling when receiving the passes) - he was brought in to be a veteran, non-panicky, steadying player, and has not been so, hopefully he can do better against less athletic teams? ... Hayes - 1-5 3 pointers - if he can't hit the 3's, he cannot get a lot of minutes because his defense is so weak ... Davis - a little better defensively, should not have taken the transition 3 he too, 3 assists to 0 turnovers, but has to do better to get more minutes ... Acuff - I thought he was solid in the prior couple of games, but he did not do well against A&M, hence only 6 minutes - is it his foot still limiting him, or something else? ... Grant - out first real glimpse - he's not bashful shooting, either the 3 or going to the rim, eh? - he appears to have some bounce, and may be able to play some solid defense in spots - got 14 minutes because of frontcourt foul trouble and Martini's ineffectiveness - a deep back-up 4 and 5 man.
Based on the game with Texas A&M (and Alabama) I am in combination bummed (RU had a legitimate chance to beat both Alabama and Texas A&M, 2 ranked teams - but fell short), encouraged by improvement in various areas, excited about the remaining possibilities for this team, and concerned about the productive depth of the team.
1) Bummed: What an opportunity the team had! But fell short. Against Alabama, RU having the ball, down 2, with 43 seconds left against Alabama - and again down 3 ... failing to secure a missed FT rebound, Harper not quite making a good effort shot (when down 2 - he was probably fouled), etc. And against Texas A&M, UP 63-54 with 11:30 left, and even after losing the lead, UP 77-76 with 3 minutes left ... and could not close, in successive possessions having Harper force (he really should have passed the ball out - had someone open in the lane, at least) a shot or a turnover (I scored it a turnover, but I think it officially went as a missed shot) - leading to a breakaway dunk, then RU missing a shot, then Martini had a BAD turnover on a decent pass to him, then even after RU got a defensive stop, Martini had ANOTHER turnover after Bailey passed it to him in the corner (Martini wide open) - on neither pass was Martini ready to catch the ball, so he fumbled it ... the last Martini turnover occurred with 40 seconds left RU down 1. Even then, after A&M made 2 FT's, Harper drove to the rim, and had his shot blocked - but I saw that replay: The defender did cleanly block the shot with his right hand, but his LEFT hand hacked Harper's shooting arm before the block. That was with 22 seconds left. Not to mention Sommerville's really stupid reach in foul with about 4 minutes left, after a rebound, with Sommerville reaching in 90 feet from the A&M basket ... ugh ... RU was up 74-72, and the ensuing FT tied the game, plus was Sommerville's 5th foul ... putting Martini back in ...leading to Martini's 2 turnovers.
2) Encouraged: RU improved their defense (despite the 50%+ FG and 40% 3-point FG) versus Alabama, in my opinion - especially Ogbole and Bailey ... I saw signs. Against Texas A&M, who admittedly is not a great shooting team, I saw even better signs. I thought RU generally played even better defense against A&M than it did against Alabama - though there WERE some exceptions. One notable exception is that RU DID foul too much - and they were legitimate fouls, mostly ... which put A&M on the line 41 times (which is sick) ... so yes, RU still has to work on defending without fouling. But I still saw signs. I ALSO saw significantly improved rebounding, especially after the 1st 10 minutes of the game. Texas A&M is one of the 5-7 best rebounding teams in the country: They averaged +12 rebounds per game, and are especially good on the offensive glass, rebounding 45% of their missed FG. Yet RU OUTREBOUNDED A&M! By SEVEN (42-35)! And held A&+M to 12 offensive rebounds, just 36=7% of their misses ... while RU had 15 offensive rebounds - also 37.5% of RU's misses (A&M had been allowing the opposing teams to grab just 29% of their misses). So I am encouraged with these specific developments. Also encouraged that RU is extremely competitive with top ranked teams - giving me hope RU will be abkle to break through in SOME of these games.
3) Excited: Yes, excited ... Again, RU had the best player on the floor, even against a ranked team (Bailey this time, vs Harper against Alabama). And again, RU had 2 of the 3 best players - though in this game you might even argue 3 of the best 4 players (Williams being so superb) ... and yes, Harper was the 3rd best player, even 6-20 FG. The team has a TON of upside still, and has not reached its ceiling for team game performance ... which WILL happen in some games to come. Even without that ceiling, RU is extremely competitive with rankled teams - and when back to back on a neutral court, it is not a fluke. We still have not seen Bailey's ceiling performance in an individual game, but will. We HAVE seen Harper's ceiling - but you could argue the Texas A&M game was his WORST game of the season - and he was not really bad - he mainly shot poorly for him, with a couple of bad judgment decisions, but not a lot ... still 3 assists and 0 turnovers. Williams has now had 2 consecutive good games (though he was GREAT vs A&M, not merely good - and he won't do that every game. Williams is clearly RU's # 3 player - which we need. Ogbole is improving, Sommerville - though with several weaknesses, including never passing out of the post, and defensive weaknesses - still has a lot of upside for THIS season. RU still will need other bench players to perform, at least at times ... which leads us to ...
4) Concern About Quality Depth: I actually was not yet concerned, but do have at least some concerns now. Acuff is still not quite there yet - though I hope he will get there. Martini completely disappeared the last 3 games, and appears completely useless against teams that are athletic and/or have frontcourt size ... that is a problem. Grant did get some play for the first time - and cl;early has some bounce - certainly grabbed some of Martini's minutes - but he is still raw and thoughg aggressively shot, missed them all. Davis did have 3 assists and 0 turnovers (good), was a little better defensively than vs Alabama, but took an ill-advised 2-pointer and missed his WIDE OPEN 3. Hayes - finally got some shots ... and was 1-5 from 3 ... his defense is still so weak that if he is not hitting 3's he cannot get minutes - its a conundrum. Derkack IS useful, got another 5 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal - but only took 3 shots ... is that better than his 2-8 vs Alabama? But though Derkack starts, Williams is clearly ahead of him - and should be. Anyway, with a clear starting 5 of Ogbole at the 5, Bailey at the 4, Williams, Derkack and Harper at the wings ... your bench is Sommerville (fine) ... and ... Hayes (2 good games, vs low level teams), Martini (1 great game, a couple of decent games, but completely disappeared vs the 2 rankled teams), Davis (not as good defensively as last year or as I expected, and still not shooting well, though his FT have improved), Acuff (hopefully mainly still not in form from the broken foot - and will get better), and now Grant (not sure what we are going to get from him yet). We do not need ALL the reserves to be productive, but we do need at least 1-2 per game other than Sommerville to be productive - it can be a different 2 each game as far as I am concerned.
Overall I reviewed the schedule after having seen the Alabama and A&M games, and factoring in the play of the rest of the Big Ten. And here is my current projection, including what I WOULD have assumed in the games already played:1) 18 W's, 6 L's and 7 Swing games ... I would have had Kennesaw St as a W, and the Vegas 3rd game as a Swing game.
2) So ... I now project a record of 17-8, with 6 additional "swing" games. 3-3 in the swing games and RU is 20-11 (12-8) ... NCAA bound. Not sure what seed.
3) Of the 6 remaining swing games, 3 are at home - vs tough teams (Purdue, Michigan and Illinois), 2 are on the road (Maryland and Washington) and 1 is MSU at MSG.
Players:
Bailey: Excellent game ... 10-20 FG, 10 rebounds, 2 steals (and I actually had him with 2 blocked shots - not sure what happened there) ... he did have 4 turnovers, all in the 1st half, and was just 2-8 from 3. Still, the best player on the court this game (yes, I put him ahead, though by just a hair, of A&M's Taylor). His defense was solid, his rebounding outstanding. And STILL not a ceiling - in other words this type of game may be more likely to be repeatable (unlike Harper's prior 2 games of 36_ points) ... and he WILL have games in which he is even better. You have to be excited and pleased.
Harper: Not as good as the prior 2 games, forced some things at times, shot poorly (even without the forces, he did not shoot as well as he had in the prior 5 games). But in fairness, credit A&M's defense as well - not every team will be able to defend him that well (even Alabama could not - and they are at least a decent defensive team with a lot of athleticism) - with forcing Harper into a 6-20 night ... 2-6 3-pointers ... but 4-4 FT. I did think Harper played solid defense again, and he did have 3 assists while being credited with 0 turnovers, and added 4 rebunds. He WILL have better games, even scoring 18 points. It was not the 18 points, but rather the inefficiency that hurt.
Williams: Wow ... not a repeatable efficiency , as he will NOT go 7-8 FG often. But he was dominant in the 2nd half, when RU needed him - and yes, the 7-8 FG was great (all good shots) - but it was his PRESENCE, being all over the floor, defensively, rebounding and of course taking and making great shots. He did have 4 turnovers - 3 in the 1st half I think., RU NEEDS a 3rd reliable scorer, and Williams has always been the most likely one to do that - and has been that player. Against A&M he was more than that. Kudos to him and his effort.
Derkack: Started - and appears to be a starter. A little stat-stuffing again: 5 Rebounds, 4 assists, a steal, more solid defense than not, but more fouls from his aggression. He is SO athletic, he can keep up with athletic teams both on defense, on the boards and on offense. Only took 3 shots - but again missed a wide open 3. Because he was not going to the basket, no FT's. I am fine with him as starter, and as a significant part of RU's 1st 7-8 rotation. RU WILL need him to hit some shots in games at some point.
Ogbole: Not as good as against Alabama, but respectable, with 6 rebounds. But obviously limited because of fouls - if he could have played 18-20 minutes instead of 14, that would have helped the team. They did not credit him with a missed shot (I thought he missed an alley-oop dunk), but rather gave him the turnover instead ... that was a key moment, I thought, when RU was surging, and it was part of several moments that impeded RU's 2nd half momentum. Still, Ogbole shows he CAN contribute, as long as he stays out of foul trouble.
Sommerville: Lots of potential, especially offensively. Did have 8 points and 4 rebounds. Still weak defensively from a fundamental stand point. Does some really good things and I expect him to keep improving - it may not be in a straight line, though. Still makes some really stupid plays - lets call them freshman mistakes. His reach-in foul with 4 minutes left, RU up 74-72, was REALLY bad, and a huge error that cost RU a lot: 2-2 FT plus his 5th foul.
The rest: Martini - covered it above, really poor game, both defensively, and with REALLY bad turnovers at HUGE moments, 0-2 FT, no 3-point attempts (because he kept fumbling when receiving the passes) - he was brought in to be a veteran, non-panicky, steadying player, and has not been so, hopefully he can do better against less athletic teams? ... Hayes - 1-5 3 pointers - if he can't hit the 3's, he cannot get a lot of minutes because his defense is so weak ... Davis - a little better defensively, should not have taken the transition 3 he too, 3 assists to 0 turnovers, but has to do better to get more minutes ... Acuff - I thought he was solid in the prior couple of games, but he did not do well against A&M, hence only 6 minutes - is it his foot still limiting him, or something else? ... Grant - out first real glimpse - he's not bashful shooting, either the 3 or going to the rim, eh? - he appears to have some bounce, and may be able to play some solid defense in spots - got 14 minutes because of frontcourt foul trouble and Martini's ineffectiveness - a deep back-up 4 and 5 man.
