MSU IN
- Thread starter hoquat63
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Probably 50/50. If it were different, money could be made always betting with the "sharps". The thing with Mich State is that they almost always get better as the season goes along. Superior coaching.
Well we know the general public/average bettor loses money in the long run.
I'm not sure how much better the professional guys do. I'm guessing the ones who actually make good money keep their bets and betting patterns to themselves.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/education/square-sharp-bettors-betting-definition
You could make money always betting with the "sharps" (that's why they're sharps, that's what it means).
The problem is that the websites that purport to know the % of "public" or "sharp" money on one side of a game are bullshit. The only real way to know, unless you are part of a betting syndicate, is to see the line movement and by then it's too late.
The experts/sharks/sharps/smart money is a bit of a urban legend. Guys who played the game are terrible at picking against the spread. It all evens out in the long term. There are some analytical geeks who find arbitrage. But betting the team that has the spread moving to them will get you a 50/50 result and, after vig, a loss. No one can predict a skilled player missing an easy layup. Or an 80% foul shooter missing the front end at a crucial juncture.
If you could bet the old spread after the spread moves you would absolutely be a winner. But you can't, generally (sometimes you can if you have a slow book).
Betting the new spread after the spread moves doesn't get you anything; you can see there was value in the old spread.. but now it's gone.
There are absolutely people who can beat the vig. They don't do it by predicting things like people "missing a layup" they do it with statistical modeling. These are the people whose bets cause the spread moves referenced above.
Of course, but that is not what I was saying. Taking an early spread, and have it move in your favor because supposed smart money comes in gets you above 50%. So, 50% of the early bettors benefit from a spread move and 50% are hurt by a late move. And the late move generally produces 50/50 results. If the late move produced alpha, eveyone would wait. But it doesn't.
I guess I'm not clear what you're saying.
If you have no edge, it doesn't matter whether you bet early or late, and the spread moves, I agree, will be ~50/50 for you / against you.
If you do have an edge, you will be better off betting early, as the spreads will become more accurate (generally, not every time) later. It's definitely the case that some people probably have an edge when betting close to the opening of the line but not when betting later.
If you are not disagreeing with this, then nvm
If you have no edge, it doesn't matter whether you bet early or late, and the spread moves, I agree, will be ~50/50 for you / against you.
If you do have an edge, you will be better off betting early, as the spreads will become more accurate (generally, not every time) later. It's definitely the case that some people probably have an edge when betting close to the opening of the line but not when betting later.
If you are not disagreeing with this, then nvm
We are in agreement except I believe very few people on the planet have an edge. How many people consistently make money betting sports? Some sell advice, claim they have an edge, but stats show it is all BS. The suckers who pay for advice lose. The guy giving advice wins even when his picks are wrong half the time. Very few people make a living beating the spread. If you happen to know that the star QB is not going to play, or was out at the bar til 3am, that is good info. But, really, how many people have that?
Yeah, I would agree that extremely few have an edge (from modeling) and that most of those who do would have such a minuscule one that it wouldn't be worth the effort, and that even more would lack the substantial discipline necessary to actually carry out their strategies long term without overbetting or doing stupid things when they hit a run of bad luck.
I assume most people with a real edge would jump either
(a) as early as possible after the line opens or
(b) as early as possible after the limits go up
but being a guy with little to no edge who bets small amounts basically for fun I can't say for sure. I jump in the early morning before I go to work, because its when I can. But my ROI is like 0.25% and I don't bet a lot of money, so I'm not moving any lines.
I do think that there are some lucky guys who hit their large bets and feel that they know more. Same as there are guys who played the sport at high levels, know the players, yet always seem to lose. Those guys on the NFL pregame shows are terrible with their picks against the spread. They clearly know much more than me.
Yeah, I don't think anyone can even come close with just sport knowledge. Anyone with any chance is using a model or just betting off-market lines, and the latter gets banned super fast if they bet any significant amount.
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