You're not entirely at the administration's mercy. The DOJ cannot itself torpedo the settlement. What it can do is to bring a lawsuit of its own against the NCAA. That's a huge headache, but there's no guarantee that the DOJ would win or that the court would impose a solution much different than the House settlement. I also must say I regard the DOJ statement as cheap talk, much like the Department of Education's insistence on proportionate pay. It's easy to take positions like that when you're about to leave office and when (frankly) you can say anything you like without consequences. Keep in mind that *neither* department took its current position when it actually could have done something to bring it about.
The transfer portal is sure to be challenged as an antitrust violation. My guess is that the NCAA will keep retreating.
I'm all for a CBA. But here's the problem. The states each control whether and how their public employees can unionize. The federal National Labor Relations Board can force Northwestern to recognize an athletes' union, but the NLRB has no power to, say , make Ohio State do that. That makes a national solution very hard to develop.
At some point, Congress is going to have to step in. But there is no way of knowing what it would do, when it would do it, or whether its solution would make the slightest sense.