OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more

pmvon

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This is something that need to be shared more and a reason everyone should seek to be vaccinated.


Could this virus continue to live on even if everyone is vaccinated? It’s just that we don’t get sick?
 

RUBOB72

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I found of all the vaccines I ever got the shingles vaccine gave me the most discomfort. That said if I needed to get it every year to avoid shingles I would.

So as long as the reported side effects remain as reported I will get the covid vaccine when it is my turn in the rotation
I agree the Shingles vaccines caused many people sore arms , fatigue , fever ... as long as people don’t die from it or suffer serious side effects then the benefit certainly outweighs the alternative from Covid19. I will get it and my wife will as well...
 

RUBOB72

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This is something that need to be shared more and a reason everyone should seek to be vaccinated.


Could this virus continue to live on even if everyone is vaccinated? It’s just that we don’t get sick?
Why would it not survive as all others do and people don’t vaccinate I assume the virus eventually could return. Flu, measles, mumps all are examples of that.
 

cohwx

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I found of all the vaccines I ever got the shingles vaccine gave me the most discomfort. That said if I needed to get it every year to avoid shingles I would.

So as long as the reported side effects remain as reported I will get the covid vaccine when it is my turn in the rotation
I was supposed to get the shingles vaccine this year but now it will have to wait until covid has passed. But my wife got it a year or two ago - said it was by far the worst vaccine experience she's ever had. Felt very sick for days after, bad enough after the first shot but far worse after the second - almost unable to function for a few days. Have heard similar stories from quite a few.

Same here regarding the covid vaccine. I won't be first in line since I'm not a front line worker and don't have any known comorbidities. That probably means it won't be an option for me until well into 2021. If I get a choice I'll probably opt for one that doesn't require -80 deg storage since a slip anywhere in the transport chain could potentially lessen its effectiveness.
 
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RUBOB72

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I found of all the vaccines I ever got the shingles vaccine gave me the most discomfort. That said if I needed to get it every year to avoid shingles I would.

So as long as the reported side effects remain as reported I will get the covid vaccine when it is my turn in the rotation
Holy crap tom1944 we finally agree on something now that is a good thing.
 
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29PAS

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I found of all the vaccines I ever got the shingles vaccine gave me the most discomfort. That said if I needed to get it every year to avoid shingles I would.

So as long as the reported side effects remain as reported I will get the covid vaccine when it is my turn in the rotation
I had the same experience as you from the first of the two Shingrix shots. Felt kind of crummy for about 18 hours. Will get the second in about 10 days.
 
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WhiteBus

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I've seen nobody talking about going to a single dose. They are considering the half dose, followed by a full dose regimen, which was 90% effective (albeit in a smaller population tested) vs. the full dose-full dose, which was only 62% effective. They can't choose a regimen that hasn't been tested.

In addition, your posts about lack of transparency are off base, since all three companies have published their adverse effects data at the same time as the efficacy data, and most media outlets have highlighted both the efficacy and safety results. Is that not transparency to you?


P.S. Best of luck on your surgery recovery...
I totally disagree about transparency. So do the many Doctors asking The CDC to step it up.
The general public does not spend the time you do looking for published reports. I'm sure we could all find them at some point. However, normal Americans have become used to the side effects always being part of the discussion in the commercials for years. (Its a great law) They talk about the product (the benefits) and side effects (the risks). No one has to go searching for it.
Sunday I watched the news shows with interviews with the CEO of Pfizer who seemed to be everywhere. At no point did he mention it and at no point was he asked about side affects. I have not seen it on mainline media until yesterday, mostly thanks to Tango's post. If it's only Fox and Friends, CNBC etc only, I do not considered that transparent at all
Recovery is going beyond expectations. In 5 days I am at the end of week 2 expected goals met. I have literally no goals to obtain other than not lifting anything for 4 weeks. Thanks for the wishes.
 

pmvon

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I totally disagree about transparency. So do the many Doctors asking The CDC to step it up.
The general public does not spend the time you do looking for published reports. I'm sure we could all find them at some point. However, normal Americans have become used to the side effects always being part of the discussion in the commercials for years. (Its a great law) They talk about the product (the benefits) and side effects (the risks). No one has to go searching for it.
Sunday I watched the news shows with interviews with the CEO of Pfizer who seemed to be everywhere. At no point did he mention it and at no point was he asked about side affects. I have not seen it on mainline media until yesterday, mostly thanks to Tango's post. If it's only Fox and Friends, CNBC etc only, I do not considered that transparent at all
Recovery is going beyond expectations. In 5 days I am at the end of week 2 expected goals met. I have literally no goals to obtain other than not lifting anything for 4 weeks. Thanks for the wishes.
It’s clear to everyone including this layman on the topic. Lots could be pointed out about how things are covered by various news channels on various topics.
 
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RUBOB72

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It’s clear to everyone including this layman on the topic. Lots could be pointed out about how things are covered by various news channels on various topics.
Like in the recent picture today of Murphy’s virtual press conference .Signing the cops bodycam legislation along with Grewal Gubir AG , (D) Assembly woman Verlina Reynolds Jackson and state Senator Shirley Turner ... several others in the room not identified ....NO MASKS ...NO DISTANCING... NO ACCOUNTABILITY...NO SHAME... HYPOCRISY PERFECT TOGETHER.
 
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RUBOB72

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Like in the recent picture today of Murphy’s virtual press conference .Signing the cops bodycam legislation along with Grewal Gubir AG , (D) Assembly woman Verlina Reynolds Jackson and state Senator Shirley Turner ... several others in the room not identified ....NO MASKS ...NO DISTANCING... NO ACCOUNTABILITY...NO SHAME... HYPOCRISY PERFECT TOGETHER.
Actually that was a mis-labeled picture from a past news conference. The NJ reporter claims it was done virtually and everyone was wearing a mask . He apologized for the misleading picture.
 

Knight Shift

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Me too, no problem with the first. The second was flu like for 24 hrs
Was knocked out for 2 days. Wife went on same days I did, and no problem for her. I'm weak! Had a similar reaction to flu shot, which was first one in 15-20 years. But no flu in 10-15 years. I'll probably get the flu this year. [roll]
 

RU848789

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Interesting analysis from the Washington Post on states' mask usage vs. % of people who know others with COVID symptoms, obtained from Facebook surveys. While the input data aren't perfect, it's likely that if the surveys were controlled properly (they say they were), then the data should at least be directionally relevant.

The data clearly show a pretty strong correlation (R-squared = 0.73, which is pretty high for a social science dataset) between % of people in a state always/mostly wearing masks and COVID symptoms, as per the graphic below. Once again, masks work - not perfectly, but they work. Somehow, we need to get past the politicization of mask-wearing, so there are not these large discrepancies.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../pandemic-data.../...

 
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RU848789

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Haven't talked about convalescent plasma in awhile, but 2 new studies are out which appear to provide results consistent with what we're seeing with the monoclonal antibody therapies First, there's a NEJoM randomized, controlled trial in hospitalized patients (more seriously ill) showing little benefit from CP.

But then, there's another randomized, controlled trial in elderly patients treated with high-IgG-titer (antibodies) CP within 72 hours of diagnosis (mildly ill), showing a 50% reduction in progression to severe respiratory disease.

These results actually seem consistent with the recent results with the engineered monoclonal antibody studies (by Regeneron and Eli Lilly), showing lack of efficacy in hospitalized/seriously ill patients, but showing excellent efficacy in preventing progression to more serious illness in mild to moderately ill patients.

If so, this means that CP could continue to be used in mildly sick COVID patients and perhaps prevent many of them from getting much sicker, much like the antibody therapies - and CP, in theory, has a larger supply base, given how man recovered patients are out there now, although gathering high titer CP is a bit tedious. There's also quite a Twitter battle going on among medical research experts on this topic, as per the thread below.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2031304...

https://www.medrxiv.org/con.../10.1101/2020.11.20.20234013v1

https://twitter.com/ACasadevall1
 
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RU848789

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I'm going to have to break my own rule about not talking about deaths, just to set the record straight. It is unequivocal that death rates in the US are rising rapidly (the 7-day avg went from about 700 to 1200 over the past 2-3 weeks) and will continue to rise rapidly until they're very likely at least in the 2000-2500 per day rate we saw in April, given that cases continue to skyrocket and as always, hospitalizations are starting to skyrocket and deaths lag cases by 2-4 weeks and hospitalizations by 1-2 weeks.

We're in for horrific pain from now through at least January, when hopefully we'll start seeing the effects of vaccines and antibody treatments. We should expect to have close to 400K COVID deaths by the end of January if we average ~2000/day until then - only much more effective masking/distancing (and possible targeted shutdowns) will reduce this somewhat. Note that many European countries, right now, have death rates that are equivalent to 2500-3000 per day on a US per capita basis. I hope I'm wrong, but for what it's worth, I was pretty accurate on my predictions for deaths from this summer's wave 2 in the US.



𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗝/𝗡𝗬/𝗨𝗦 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀

While cases in NJ/NY are going up somewhat quickly, one has to remember that they're not going up at the rate we saw in March/April and are still less in total than in March/April, when considering that actual cases were likely at least 2-4X more than reported back then (since we had minimal testing back then).

However, looking at hospitalization rates is much more illustrative of the extent of the current outbreak, since hospitalizations aren't subject to the wide variability related to testing variability. And they're about 1/4 what they were back in April in NJ and less than that in NY - although they are rising, but I'm hoping they'll level off at less than half the April rate (since cases appear to be peaking), which, combined with about 1/2 the death rate per hospitalization now vs. what we saw in March/April, that would work out to 1/4 the death rate peak of April. Still sucks, but not as badly. We'll see.

In contrast, as per my post from a week ago (above) and a few before that, the rest of the US is either already in or about to enter a world of hurt with cases, hospitalizations and deaths skyrocketing and hospitals being overrun in some locations. I'd expect to see US deaths top out in the 2000-2500 per day range and maybe even up to 3000/day, i.e., beyond what we saw in March/April (which was about 2200/day on a 7-day avg) and there's nothing that can be done to stop that now, given where we are in cases.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10220441544022688&id=1654125943

The "good" news is that if we follow the trajectory in most of the major European countries, which have seen huge peaks in recent weeks, but are now declining, we'll peak soon and then decline, as they have done. Deaths in these European countries have generally peaked, while ours have not, but should in the next couple of weeks, as deaths lag cases by 2-4 weeks and hospitalizations by 1-2 weeks, typically. As per the graphs below comparing the US to selected European countries, we're somewhere in the middle on cases and deaths, but still rising.

And we should start to see vaccines rolling out by mid-December, at least for health care workers and then high risk workers/people. Hopefully, most who want a vaccine will be able to get one by the end of April and the pandemic will be mostly over. But it'll have been far worse here and in many other countries than it needed to be, if we had simply followed our own pandemic playbook, although that's not worth rehashing here.









 

bac2therac

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virus is virusing, all the states and countries follow the same trajectory ups and downs regardless of measures in place...lockdowns, masks, open, no masks, the trajectory of the virus makes its own rules
 

RU848789

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virus is virusing, all the states and countries follow the same trajectory ups and downs regardless of measures in place...lockdowns, masks, open, no masks, the trajectory of the virus makes its own rules
You continue to have zero understanding of the science of infectious disease transmission and prevention. There are good reasons why states like ND/SD, which are very sparsely populated still have 5-10 X greater death rates per capita than states like HI/VT, which are 5-20X more densely populated and why countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and most of sub-Saharan Africa have 50-100X lesser death rates per capita than the US. I've shared those reasons countless times and you ignore the data. It's all about preventing transmissions/cases and those states and countries that do it better, have far lower death rates. There are also age factors and underlying condition factors, but those are minor compared to cases/transmissions.
 

ScarletNut

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You continue to have zero understanding of the science of infectious disease transmission and prevention. There are good reasons why states like ND/SD, which are very sparsely populated still have 5-10 X greater death rates per capita than states like HI/VT, which are 5-20X more densely populated and why countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and most of sub-Saharan Africa have 50-100X lesser death rates per capita than the US. I've shared those reasons countless times and you ignore the data. It's all about preventing transmissions/cases and those states and countries that do it better, have far lower death rates. There are also age factors and underlying condition factors, but those are minor compared to cases/transmissions.
I don’t know why bother responding to bac. His repertoire is limited, takes excerpts from articles out of context and quotes some whacko sources. You’re not gonna get through but I applaud your persistence and thank you for your information. Bottom line is bac is gonna bac.
 

Knight Shift

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Those pesky minks with covid-19:
Culled mink rise from the dead to Denmark's horror

Carcasses rose to surface at improvised mass grave owing to gases from decomposition

Adding to the popular concern, local media reported that the animals may also have been buried too close to lakes and underground water reserves, prompting fears of possible contamination of ground and drinking water supplies.

 
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WhiteBus

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virus is virusing, all the states and countries follow the same trajectory ups and downs regardless of measures in place...lockdowns, masks, open, no masks, the trajectory of the virus makes its own rules
Been saying from day one that restrictions were just kicking the can down the road. We all have to face the music at sometime. The can got kicked all the way to the fall.
 
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T2Kplus10

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What is your predicted timeline for our return to normalcy?

Been reading and listening to some HCP KOLs and supply chain experts. Also, the J&J vaccine data should be announced in the next month or so. We will have 4 vaccines ready to roll in 2021. Two scenarios are being pushed:

1. Best Case - the "reopening" of America will be 4th of July weekend with packed baseball stadiums.
2. Worst Case - the "reopening" will be by Labor Day, so normal school year and packed football stadiums.

Thoughts? Sounds like #1 is a real possibility.
 

bac2therac

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You continue to have zero understanding of the science of infectious disease transmission and prevention. There are good reasons why states like ND/SD, which are very sparsely populated still have 5-10 X greater death rates per capita than states like HI/VT, which are 5-20X more densely populated and why countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and most of sub-Saharan Africa have 50-100X lesser death rates per capita than the US. I've shared those reasons countless times and you ignore the data. It's all about preventing transmissions/cases and those states and countries that do it better, have far lower death rates. There are also age factors and underlying condition factors, but those are minor compared to cases/transmissions.

ND and SD...you might want to check their current rates of transmission..oops


look at the states doing the worst....hmm especially NJ where masks are required everywhere and people wear them everywhere

bringing up a bunch of Asian countries is really irrelevant to any of our discussion and you know it

 
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Postman_1

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Interesting article from a Italian study. You will have to use Google translater to read it. 95% false positives ouch

 
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RUBOB72

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ND and SD...you might want to check their current rates of transmission..oops


look at the states doing the worst....hmm especially NJ where masks are required everywhere and people wear them everywhere

bringing up a bunch of Asian countries is really irrelevant to any of our discussion and you know it

NJ is at this moment one of the worst. I have not seen many non mask wearers in stores... supermarkets ... I stay away from restaurants ... it’s not from schools ... I like being near the top in competitions but our state leaders continue to fail in this big game.
 

brad1218

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The scariest thing to me about the comments in this thread is that we live in one of the most highly educated, intelligent states in the country and I still read some dumb ass posts. I can’t imagine what it must be like to live in a less educated state. The posts must be insane. Or I guess just hundreds of posts like Bacs.
 

King of S

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What is your predicted timeline for our return to normalcy?

Been reading and listening to some HCP KOLs and supply chain experts. Also, the J&J vaccine data should be announced in the next month or so. We will have 4 vaccines ready to roll in 2021. Two scenarios are being pushed:

1. Best Case - the "reopening" of America will be 4th of July weekend with packed baseball stadiums.
2. Worst Case - the "reopening" will be by Labor Day, so normal school year and packed football stadiums.

Thoughts? Sounds like #1 is a real possibility.
Even faster - May - at least 50% attendance for baseball.
 
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RUBOB72

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The scariest thing to me about the comments in this thread is that we live in one of the most highly educated, intelligent states in the country and I still read some dumb ass posts. I can’t imagine what it must be like to live in a less educated state. The posts must be insane. Or I guess just hundreds of posts like Bacs.
Being educated has not proven intelligence goes hand in hand and not an accurate description of NJ. We are viewed as arrogant, smug know it alls. who have big egos and little real common sense..
The scariest thing to me about the comments in this thread is that we live in one of the most highly educated, intelligent states in the country and I still read some dumb ass posts. I can’t imagine what it must be like to live in a less educated state. The posts must be insane. Or I guess just hundreds of posts like Bacs.
Education doesn’t always equate to having good common sense . Trust this fact about NJ . People in other states find NJ residents obnoxious, smug and somewhat full of themselves. Never hear them fawn over our educational system.
 

ashokan

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This is something that need to be shared more and a reason everyone should seek to be vaccinated.


Could this virus continue to live on even if everyone is vaccinated? It’s just that we don’t get sick?
I've heard some researchers say there is a chance the virus becomes endemic, and people will need new shots on some interval similar to flu.

I'll miss the first shots and let the pioneers take the arrow. Only company I trust is Regeneron. They are local and I know something about them. They didn't chase a "vaccine"

Meanwhile - another pro hydro' study (vs the fake 'anti" one in Lancet that got pulled)


Study finds 84% fewer hospitalizations for patients treated with controversial drug hydroxychloroquine

 
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bac2therac

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The scariest thing to me about the comments in this thread is that we live in one of the most highly educated, intelligent states in the country and I still read some dumb ass posts. I can’t imagine what it must be like to live in a less educated state. The posts must be insane. Or I guess just hundreds of posts like Bacs.

NJ is wearing masks everywhere and have been forever. I wear a mask everywhere its required. NJ has one of the highest tranmission rates in the country right now. NJ has the greatest deaths per million
 

RU848789

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What is your predicted timeline for our return to normalcy?

Been reading and listening to some HCP KOLs and supply chain experts. Also, the J&J vaccine data should be announced in the next month or so. We will have 4 vaccines ready to roll in 2021. Two scenarios are being pushed:

1. Best Case - the "reopening" of America will be 4th of July weekend with packed baseball stadiums.
2. Worst Case - the "reopening" will be by Labor Day, so normal school year and packed football stadiums.

Thoughts? Sounds like #1 is a real possibility.
T - great question and we're fairly closely aligned, although I'm a bit more optimistic. I've said I think we'll start to see the pandemic slow down considerably by the end of February, after the vast majority of health care workers, front line workers and the elderly have been vaccinated, which is probably 10% of the population, which along with the 15-20% infected should slow things down. And then, I think we'll get to a point where the virus is just about beaten by the end of April, as we reach about 40% vaccinated (which should mean over 50-55% immune, which is close to herd immunity).

Might not be full stadiums by the end of April, but I think we'll see entry allowed for people who have proof of vaccination or recovery from infection (I think many companies, businesses, schools and universities will go that route); I see full stadiums and such by mid-June. Maybe the bigger question is whether "immunity passports" will be required and if so by whom.

By the way, for what it's worth, I like the COVID Science thread T2K - you've been bringing a host of interesting and informative posts to the thread. Thanks for that.
 

brad1218

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NJ is wearing masks everywhere and have been forever. I wear a mask everywhere its required. NJ has one of the highest tranmission rates in the country right now. NJ has the greatest deaths per million
I’m with you. We should stop wearing masks. Agreed!
 
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pmvon

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I've heard some researchers say there is a chance the virus becomes endemic, and people will need new shots on some interval similar to flu.

I'll miss the first shots and let the pioneers take the arrow. Only company I trust is Regeneron. They are local and I know something about them. They didn't chase a "vaccine"

Meanwhile - another pro hydro' study (vs the fake 'anti" one in Lancet that got pulled)


Study finds 84% fewer hospitalizations for patients treated with controversial drug hydroxychloroquine

A bit disappointed even for you that you would push this nonsense.

That being said the regeneron treatment seems promising but the vaccines will be the way to go.