OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more

[pmvon]

wut? pivot? whataboutism? Have no idea what my post has to do with your comment. worry about yourself.

?

“Especially the part about: "i hate the excessive media focus on death, blame “-

Here are your words after posting a tweet from a doctor on living a healthy lifestyle which is the definition of whataboutism in a thread on science and healthcare policy as it relates to a pandemic we are currently living with.

It’s long been guidance for living a healthy life. Again, it’s a deflection from the issues that can help deal with this crisis, wearing masks and social distancing. Long term, absolutely but 50% of the population has ignored this guidance and covid won’t change their behavior. I wish it would as their unhealthy lifestyles are a tax on the system and people who do take care of themselves.

I asked a simple question about media downplaying the virus, it’s danger and contradicting health care experts and policies guided to protect people and our healthcare workers. Your lack of answering while blaming one aspect of the media focus on death etc. clearly shows your agenda. You could have simply said, I also hate the excessive media focus on downplaying the virus and science.

 

[Knight Shift]

?

“Especially the part about: "i hate the excessive media focus on death, blame “-

Here are your words after posting a tweet from a doctor on living a healthy lifestyle which is the definition of whataboutism in a thread on science and healthcare policy as it relates to a pandemic we are currently living with.

It’s long been guidance for living a healthy life. Again, it’s a deflection from the issues that can help deal with this crisis, wearing masks and social distancing. Long term, absolutely but 50% of the population has ignored this guidance and covid won’t change their behavior. I wish it would as their unhealthy lifestyles are a tax on the system and people who do take care of themselves.

I asked a simple question about media downplaying the virus, it’s danger and contradicting health care experts and policies guided to protect people and our healthcare workers. Your lack of answering while blaming one aspect of the media focus on death etc. clearly shows your agenda. You could have simply said, I also hate the excessive media focus on downplaying the virus and science.

If you are going to nitpick someone's post that is as long as my post was, how about being a bit more specific in your picking of nits? That would enhance the discussion. You made a huge assumption and whiffed, because your assumption could not be further from the truth. And I was agreeing with what @RUfubar (who is a MD) said. Those were HIS words, not mine, yet you chose to pick on me.

And if think that living a metabolically healthy life has nothing to do with science and healthcare policy as it relates to a pandemic, multiple points have gone way over your head. There are numerous papers in medical and scientific journals that discuss co-morbidities and severity of Covid-19 symptoms (including death). The more metabolically healthy people we have in this world will result in this pandemic and the attendant death rate ending sooner. Think about that for a minute. The first to get the vaccine will be frontline health care workers, then probably first responders (EMS, firefighters, police, etc) and then the teachers. The obese, diabetic, elderly, and those with heart and lung conditions (and other co-morbidities) should be ahead of those who are metabolically healthy. If there are more metabolically healthy people, that will cut down on the initial demand for vaccines, which is a positive outcome in terms of healthcare policy.

My post said nothing about wearing masks and social distancing. If you read my posts, I have supported wearing masks and social distancing. But floated away on that banana boat all on your own. You have me and my posts/agenda confused with other posters. Have a nice evening.

 

[pmvon]

If you are going to nitpick someone's post that is as long as my post was, how about being a bit more specific in your picking of nits? That would enhance the discussion. You made a huge assumption and whiffed, because your assumption could not be further from the truth. And I was agreeing with what @RUfubar (who is a MD) said. Those were HIS words, not mine, yet you chose to pick on me.

And if think that living a metabolically healthy life has nothing to do with science and healthcare policy as it relates to a pandemic, multiple points have gone way over your head. There are numerous papers in medical and scientific journals that discuss co-morbidities and severity of Covid-19 symptoms (including death). The more metabolically healthy people we have in this world will result in this pandemic and the attendant death rate ending sooner. Think about that for a minute. The first to get the vaccine will be frontline health care workers, then probably first responders (EMS, firefighters, police, etc) and then the teachers. The obese, diabetic, elderly, and those with heart and lung conditions (and other co-morbidities) should be ahead of those who are metabolically healthy. If there are more metabolically healthy people, that will cut down on the initial demand for vaccines, which is a positive outcome in terms of healthcare policy.

My post said nothing about wearing masks and social distancing. If you read my posts, I have supported wearing masks and social distancing. But floated away on that banana boat all on your own. You have me and my posts/agenda confused with other posters. Have a nice evening.

Fair enough and then I apologize. I also fully understand the importance on health and it’s clear to everyone that underlying health issues like diabetes, which can be avoided with a healthy lifestyle, lead to poorer outcomes for those infected with covid. However, while it should be promoted (and it is), I don’t think it will have an impact on this crisis as it takes time for people to change lifestyles and most wont do anything about it. We can’t even get people to wear masks and we are going to tell them to fast? Can you imagine the response from anti masker crowd? Telling them how to eat/live? My word. But again I wish they would.

 

[RUBOB72]

Fair enough and then I apologize. I also fully understand the importance on health and it’s clear to everyone that underlying health issues like diabetes, which can be avoided with a healthy lifestyle, lead to poorer outcomes for those infected with covid. However, while it should be promoted (and it is), I don’t think it will have an impact on this crisis as it takes time for people to change lifestyles and most wont do anything about it. We can’t even get people to wear masks and we are going to tell them to fast? Can you imagine the response from anti masker crowd? Telling them how to eat/live? My word. But again I wish they would.

Telling them when they can defecate would be interesting but I would put nothing past the incumbent administration and the media biased tools.

 

[ScarletNut]

So now we are blaming the not wearing of masks for the deaths related to covid 19 and people who don’t schedule “ life” saving treatments? Because hospitals became full... Here is something to chew on... When they reconstructed the Javits Center in NYC it was literally hardly used. When the Naval Hosputal ship arrived in NYC Harbor it was sadly hardly used... The original objective was to send patients to these two facilities in order to do those things you just spoke about. It would have freed up space for those who needed more sophisticated procedures in places like MSK , HSS etc. They were barely used... That is exactly why people don’t buy that reasoning after seeing the NY Governor and Mayor F it up . I mean let’s give credit to those two shills. I would add a number of other states who were negligent in their states but it’s being repeated ....New Jersey and NY will lead the 2nd wave... Truth be told NY , NJ, Florida , Texas, California , are responsible for over 100k deaths... in wave number 2 they will lead as well . They did not learn a damn thing. That’s not my rant ... check with the NJ.com .

That’s a total spin on my question. Currently the entire country’s hospitals are strained by the abundance of admissions. Not talking about deaths though they are happening. My question dealt with masks and ANY mitigation efforts to reduce hospital admissions. Rather than deflect from my question, I ask what suggestions do you have to reduce admissions to allow non-COVID patients to access the care they need? Living a healthy life doesn’t solve the immediate problem. No politics, no belligerence, no fighting.......just give me a suggestion to reduce admissions.

 

[Knight Shift]

Fair enough and then I apologize. I also fully understand the importance on health and it’s clear to everyone that underlying health issues like diabetes, which can be avoided with a healthy lifestyle, lead to poorer outcomes for those infected with covid. However, while it should be promoted (and it is), I don’t think it will have an impact on this crisis as it takes time for people to change lifestyles and most wont do anything about it. We can’t even get people to wear masks and we are going to tell them to fast? Can you imagine the response from anti masker crowd? Telling them how to eat/live? My word. But again I wish they would.

Thank you. You seem like a rationale poster, and I have never had an issue with you. It's rare to see an apology here, and I apologize if I ratcheted it up a notch.
Yeah, if we can't get people to wear masks and distance, it will be a tall order for them to eat less junk and exercise (although some of the avid exercise folks like @bac2therac don't appear to be fully on board with mask -wearing). The link I posted about fasting wasn't a suggest for people to fast their way through the pandemic. However, as someone who was trending towards type 2 diabetes (my father and his parents both died from complications of T2D), I did a lot of research and reworked my diet and exercise to lose excess weight (more to do) and commit to regular exercise. This included intermittent fasting, which involves 16 hour intermittent feeding, one meal a day and 48 hour fasts. To reemphasize what I said above, metabolic health does not make anyone impervious to disease, especially covid-19, but it does appear to confer a much better chance of better outcomes. Have a good night.

 

[RUBOB72]

That’s a total spin on my question. Currently the entire country’s hospitals are strained by the abundance of admissions. Not talking about deaths though they are happening. My question dealt with masks and ANY mitigation efforts to reduce hospital admissions. Rather than deflect from my question, I ask what suggestions do you have to reduce admissions to allow non-COVID patients to access the care they need? Living a healthy life doesn’t solve the immediate problem. No politics, no belligerence, no fighting.......just give me a suggestion to reduce admissions.

It’s not spin it’s just showing you how one side will turn one issue into something else. How about those portable hospitals that were to be used and set up for first illness other than Covid but were never used? Seems like our state leaders dropped the ball. Also I would bet 99% of people are using masks yet we are told the uptick is being caused by in home and after school event gatherings. Or is that not true...

 

[ScarletNut]

It’s not spin it’s just showing you how one side will turn one issue into something else. How about those portable hospitals that were to be used and set up for first illness other than Covid but were never used? Seems like our state leaders dropped the ball. Also I would bet 99% of people are using masks yet we are told the uptick is being caused by in home and after school event gatherings. Or is that not true...

You still haven't answered my question.

 

[RUBOB72]

You still haven't answered my question.

Your question ? What you posted is nonsense... you have not answered my OP ... you asked for a solution and I gave it to you ... off site hospitals which were provided back in March April... use them ... it’s all about logistical support .

 

[bac2therac]

If you are going to nitpick someone's post that is as long as my post was, how about being a bit more specific in your picking of nits? That would enhance the discussion. You made a huge assumption and whiffed, because your assumption could not be further from the truth. And I was agreeing with what @RUfubar (who is a MD) said. Those were HIS words, not mine, yet you chose to pick on me.

And if think that living a metabolically healthy life has nothing to do with science and healthcare policy as it relates to a pandemic, multiple points have gone way over your head. There are numerous papers in medical and scientific journals that discuss co-morbidities and severity of Covid-19 symptoms (including death). The more metabolically healthy people we have in this world will result in this pandemic and the attendant death rate ending sooner. Think about that for a minute. The first to get the vaccine will be frontline health care workers, then probably first responders (EMS, firefighters, police, etc) and then the teachers. The obese, diabetic, elderly, and those with heart and lung conditions (and other co-morbidities) should be ahead of those who are metabolically healthy. If there are more metabolically healthy people, that will cut down on the initial demand for vaccines, which is a positive outcome in terms of healthcare policy.

My post said nothing about wearing masks and social distancing. If you read my posts, I have supported wearing masks and social distancing. But floated away on that banana boat all on your own. You have me and my posts/agenda confused with other posters. Have a nice evening.

Because they want to lump all people who dont follow the company line 100% lock step and offer some alternative ways to fight the pandemic as horrible insensitive and supportive of a particular political party

Look you generally support masks but they continue to attack you for some reason. Its really odd but totally predictable

 

[bac2therac]

Thank you. You seem like a rationale poster, and I have never had an issue with you. It's rare to see an apology here, and I apologize if I ratcheted it up a notch.
Yeah, if we can't get people to wear masks and distance, it will be a tall order for them to eat less junk and exercise (although some of the avid exercise folks like @bac2therac don't appear to be fully on board with mask -wearing). The link I posted about fasting wasn't a suggest for people to fast their way through the pandemic. However, as someone who was trending towards type 2 diabetes (my father and his parents both died from complications of T2D), I did a lot of research and reworked my diet and exercise to lose excess weight (more to do) and commit to regular exercise. This included intermittent fasting, which involves 16 hour intermittent feeding, one meal a day and 48 hour fasts. To reemphasize what I said above, metabolic health does not make anyone impervious to disease, especially covid-19, but it does appear to confer a much better chance of better outcomes. Have a good night.

I wear a mask everywhere its required

 

[RU848789]

RU#s,

First I want to start off by saying that you’re a great resource on discussing, procuring opinions, explaining, validating, invalidating, demystifying scientific problems, data and summarizing the scientific community efforts to come up with solutions to scientific problems facing us on a daily basis. As a long time participant of this site I really appreciate the ability to get my RU athletics fix and clarity on the real life scientific challenges we are facing all on one website.

My question to you is whether exposing study participants to the Covid-19 virus [either pre or post vaccine injection] part of the Moderna/Pfizer clinical trial process to determine or validate immunity of the participant from the virus? Or is the vaccine a way to prevent an individual who has never been infected by the virus from ever “getting it” [for lack of a better way of putting] and all the symptoms that come with it?

Thank you for your continued efforts and look forward to your response.

GO RU

Thanks, that's all very nice of you to say. As T said, the vaccine trials have not involved any element of a "human challenge" where healthy volunteers are vaccinated and then purposely exposed to the virus. Quite a few people wanted to go that route, as it would have gotten to the safety/efficacy answers more quickly than "waiting" for enough people in a to be exposed to the virus (and infected) in the randomized, placebo-controlled, blinded trials we've been running, and it would have given more direct answers. I favored it, given the extraordinary circumstances involve with this virus and how critical time was.

And yes, the vaccine is aimed at preventing people who have not been exposed to the virus from becoming infected or at least, if infected, having a very mild case, since the vaccine activates the recipients immune system so that it can recognize and destroy the invading pathogen. So far, in the two trials with reported phase III data (Pfizer/Moderna) the vast majority of people who received the vaccine did not appear to have any infection at all and the few who did get infected had mild cases (with only 1 serious infection between the two trials). The 95% efficacy is far beyond what most had predicted - the FDA had set 50% efficacy as the minimum standard for approval (similar to the flu vaccine).

FYI, about a month ago, the UK said they were going to conduct "human challenge trials" although I am puzzled why they're doing these now, when we're not far away from having final phase III vaccine trial results for multiple vaccines. My guess is these types of trials were already done with "volunteers" in places like China and Russia. The 2nd link is to a post back in April which has a lot more background info on human challenge trials.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02821-4

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.191275/post-4521358

 

[bac2therac]

You know what was concerning to me today at the Monty Shop Rite....it wasnt mask wearing as everyone had them on, it was after i bagged my apples put them in the cart and then looked what looked to be superspeading event as about 30 people were all within a foot of each other as you went to the other end of the produce section, carts next to carts, people eyeball to eyeball, no joke. No social distancing and everyone acting as if their mask makes them Superman, I see this all the time as inconsiderate people moose on peoples space in the aisle and come right up and sometimes under them to grab products instead of following common decency and give people space. Heard the Hillsborough shop rite was limiting the amount of people in the store but the frozen food sections was basically ransacked.

 

[ScarletNut]

You know what was concerning to me today at the Monty Shop Rite....it wasnt mask wearing as everyone had them on, it was after i bagged my apples put them in the cart and then looked what looked to be superspeading event as about 30 people were all within a foot of each other as you went to the other end of the produce section, carts next to carts, people eyeball to eyeball, no joke. No social distancing and everyone acting as if their mask makes them Superman, I see this all the time as inconsiderate people moose on peoples space in the aisle and come right up and sometimes under them to grab products instead of following common decency and give people space. Heard the Hillsborough shop rite was limiting the amount of people in the store but the frozen food sections was basically ransacked.

I totally agree with this. I’ve seen it at my local ShopRite also.

 

[bac2therac]

also I continually see at my gym the constant touching and pulling up of masks at the gym and in stores, if any virus was actually on the mask well you are infecting yourself by doing it...Ive also seen Schiano and others in the sports world do it constantly. At the end of the day sometimes its better off not to be wearing one, I dont see why ON THE FIELD, the coaching staff needs to wear masks in an outdoor setting as if the lack of transmission at packed beaches and boardwalks didnt teach anybody anything

 

[matty666]

However, it turns out that a recent mutation in the virus might make vaccines more effective. The mutation lets the virus get into cells more easily but by doing so lets antibodies get in more easily, too.

Maybe. Who knows. But the same point can be said about herd immunity making the virus less less deadly. No one knows how the virus will mutate. Suggesting people change their diets and life healthier gals on deaf ears. But we pay billions every year will pay trillions if we don’t change. Covid showed this. It saying we don’t try foe a vaccine but being healthy should not be something we can’t talk more about

 

[Knight Shift]

Because they want to lump all people who dont follow the company line 100% lock step and offer some alternative ways to fight the pandemic as horrible insensitive and supportive of a particular political party

Look you generally support masks but they continue to attack you for some reason. Its really odd but totally predictable

I'm cool with pmvon. It was a misunderstanding. I don't generally support masks. I fully support and encourage them. If I walk into a store or other public building and people are not wearing masks, I walk out. I don't make a scene or say anything. It's not my job. My job is to protect myself, my family, my friends, and when on calls for service, those that we have been called to assist.

 

[Knight Shift]

You know what was concerning to me today at the Monty Shop Rite....it wasnt mask wearing as everyone had them on, it was after i bagged my apples put them in the cart and then looked what looked to be superspeading event as about 30 people were all within a foot of each other as you went to the other end of the produce section, carts next to carts, people eyeball to eyeball, no joke. No social distancing and everyone acting as if their mask makes them Superman, I see this all the time as inconsiderate people moose on peoples space in the aisle and come right up and sometimes under them to grab products instead of following common decency and give people space. Heard the Hillsborough shop rite was limiting the amount of people in the store but the frozen food sections was basically ransacked.

Airports and boarding planes is terrible On our last trip, we were in row 2, and we had carry on luggage that fit under the seat. We specifically waited last to board. Except a guy got in line behind us, and was literally almost bumping into us because he seemed annoyed that we were more than 6 feet behind the people in front of us on the jetway. We politely turned around and said to him, "it looks like you are in a bit of a hurry, you go right ahead." He jumped ahead of us like he had won the lottery. Easy peasy. No confrontation. No covid germs near us (if he had them). And don't even get me started with people not covering their noses with their masks. We double masked and wore ski goggles because we don't want to infect our kids or my 92 year old mother, who we distance at least 8 feet when she stops by once a week in the car in our driveway.

The selfish behavior of some people never surprises. There is enough stress in the world right now. I'm not going to start an argument with someone. I just move away and move on.

But I think it was you (or maybe it was someone else) who said that NJ is a mask-wearing state, and we still have a high infection rate. Maybe it is because people are very loosely complying and not distancing. If everyone did it the RIGHT way, maybe the infection rate would go down. But that is asking too much for people--it infringes on "their rights"-- I guess. Two such simple things to do that are so hard for some people to follow.

 

[bac2therac]

Airports and boarding planes is terrible On our last trip, we were in row 2, and we had carry on luggage that fit under the seat. We specifically waited last to board. Except a guy got in line behind us, and was literally almost bumping into us because he seemed annoyed that we were more than 6 feet behind the people in front of us on the jetway. We politely turned around and said to him, "it looks like you are in a bit of a hurry, you go right ahead." He jumped ahead of us like he had won the lottery. Easy peasy. No confrontation. No covid germs near us (if he had them). And don't even get me started with people not covering their noses with their masks. We double masked and wore ski goggles because we don't want to infect our kids or my 92 year old mother, who we distance at least 8 feet when she stops by once a week in the car in our driveway.

The selfish behavior of some people never surprises. There is enough stress in the world right now. I'm not going to start an argument with someone. I just move away and move on.

But I think it was you (or maybe it was someone else) who said that NJ is a mask-wearing state, and we still have a high infection rate. Maybe it is because people are very loosely complying and not distancing. If everyone did it the RIGHT way, maybe the infection rate would go down. But that is asking too much for people--it infringes on "their rights"-- I guess. Two such simple things to do that are so hard for some people to follow.

Imo distancing decreased when mask shaming and mandates went on full blast

 

[Frida's Boss]

Because they want to lump all people who dont follow the company line 100% lock step and offer some alternative ways to fight the pandemic as horrible insensitive and supportive of a particular political party

Look you generally support masks but they continue to attack you for some reason. Its really odd but totally predictable

Well, those who don’t follow medically and scientifically well-established public health measures are indeed spreading the virus unnecessarily and subjecting the economy to further stress. Of course, no one has said that improving ones physical fitness is undesirable. Of course it is, but not to the exclusion of adhering to prescribed public health measures. Those include, today, limiting holiday gatherings to co-habitants.

The objection you allude to above is not valid, since, assuming your alternative method of fighting the pandemic is not at odds with mask wearing and social distancing, no one has or would object to unhealthy people improving their fitness.

Finally, no one attacked the poster in question. Rather, his inaccurate description of the doctor’s tweets was highlighted and clarified.

 

[RU848789]

Interesting paper (abstract below) out on the importance of frequent, rapid results testing of asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic people and how doing so - even with tests less sensitive than the current PCR-based viral tests - could really slow this pandemic down. The key is the speed/ease/frequency of such tests would lead to people knowing much better when they're first infected, which, coupled with isolating such people (and their contacts), would prevent so many more transmission chains than having "perfect" tests which take 2-3 days for results, leading to people infecting others while waiting.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/20/sciadv.abd5393.1

Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. Because SARS-CoV-2 can spread from individuals with pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic infections, the re-opening of societies and the control of virus spread will be facilitated by robust population screening, for which virus testing will often be central. After infection, individuals undergo a period of incubation during which viral titers are usually too low to detect, followed by an exponential viral growth, leading to a peak viral load and infectiousness, and ending with declining viral levels and clearance. Given the pattern of viral load kinetics, we model the effectiveness of repeated population screening considering test sensitivities, frequency, and sample-to-answer reporting time. These results demonstrate that effective screening depends largely on frequency of testing and the speed of reporting, and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity. We therefore conclude that screening should prioritize accessibility, frequency, and sample-to-answer time; analytical limits of detection should be secondary.

This is the approach most sports teams are taking - for example the B1G is using daily antigen testing (which tests for detectable "pieces" of viral proteins, as opposed to the PCR test, which tests for viral RNA). The approach would be even better if the rapid tests were available at home (like a pregnancy test). We talked about this a bunch a few months ago as per the link below. Dr. Mina and many others believe frequent, rapid testing, deployed massively, even with less sensitive tests, could stop the pandemic rather quickly and this paper provides the math/modeling to support that, although it should be remembered that this approach would still rely on people getting tests and quarantining when positive, which isn't a given in this country, unfortunately.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.198855/post-4679676

 

[RU848789]

My bet since March was that Regeneron's antibody cocktail (mix of two monoclonal antibodies that target two different epitopes on the virus's spike protein) was going to be our best hope for seriously improving patient response to being infected and that seems like what we're seeing with today's additional results from the ongoing phase II/III trial in mild to moderately ill COVID patients (prior to hospitalization, when an antiviral is likely to have the biggest benefit).

Certainly can't say it's a "cure" yet, but it's looking much better than any other drug out there, so far and could be a bridge to vaccines, especially as it's also being looked at as a prophylactic to prevent infection in high risk workers/possible patients. Regeneron has applied with the FDA for an Emergency Use Authorization soon, which I think makes sense. Yeah, I know - no COVID threads, but people ought to know about this. At least leave it up for a day or so. This is really important news given that Eli Lilly announced that they were stopping their trial in hospitalized COVID patients getting their single antibody treatment along with remdesivir, due to lack of efficacy (they also have a cocktail - awaiting results on that).

https://investor.regeneron.com/news...9-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates

𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗲𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝘀, 𝗜𝗻𝗰. (𝗡𝗔𝗦𝗗𝗔𝗤: 𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗡) 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲, 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝟮/𝟯 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗺𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗-𝟭𝟵 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹, 𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗡-𝗖𝗢𝗩𝟮, 𝗺𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀. 𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗡-𝗖𝗢𝗩𝟮 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀 (𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗿𝗼𝗼𝗺, 𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱/𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗵𝘆𝘀𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗲/𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘀).

"𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗷𝗼𝗯 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗲𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗱𝗿𝘂𝗴 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟳𝟱 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗡-𝗖𝗢𝗩𝟮 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗯𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀. 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆'𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀, 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀, 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗡-𝗖𝗢𝗩𝟮 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝘂𝗿𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝘂𝗿𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻," 𝘀𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗗. 𝗬𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗽𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗼𝘀, 𝗠.𝗗., 𝗣𝗵.𝗗., 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗲𝗳 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗼𝗻. "𝗪𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗮𝘁 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗱𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱, 𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲, 𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗲-𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀. 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗼𝗻 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗙𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗿𝘂𝗴 𝗔𝗱𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝘀 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗘𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗨𝘀𝗲 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗡-𝗖𝗢𝗩𝟮 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗-𝟭𝟵."

An Emergency Use Authorization was granted for the Regeneron antibody cocktail by the FDA yesterday, as expected (and slightly surprised it was granted later than Lilly's EUA for their antibody treatment which does not look as effective). Both the Lilly and Regeneron monoclonal antibody treatments are for mild/moderately ill COVID patients prior to hospitalization, where they've had good clinical trial results, so far (especially the Regeneron one).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/21/health/regeneron-fda-clearance-trump-coronavirus/index.html

"Regeneron now expects to have REGEN-COV2 treatment doses ready for approximately 80,000 patients by the end of November, approximately 200,000 patients by the first week of January, and approximately 300,000 patients in total by the end of January 2021," the company said in their news release yesterday.

This is a start, but only a start, given that we're almost seeing 200,000 cases per day now - these monoclonal antibody drugs will be reserved for elderly patients and those with high risk factors (like Trump and Christie, who both received the Regeneron treatment). Unfortunately, the Regeneron cocktail clinical trial was put on hold for patients on ventilators and those receiving supplemental oxygen - many (including me) had hoped it would work as well in seriously ill patients.

https://investor.regeneron.com/news...cov2-first-antibody-cocktail-covid-19-receive

 

[RUBOB72]

Where and how would say the state of NJ be able to test all those asymptomatic and pre symptomatic people daily ? It isn’t set up for that still. Even if able to nobody is going to test unless a family member or contact has tested positive. If you have symptoms fine if not you would be testing everyday. Appointments and Referrals are still required at some testing facilities. Not as easy nor convenient as some believe.

 

[pmvon]

Not sure if this was posted but pretty clear evidence supporting mask mandates.

Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With ...

This report describes COVID-19 incidence in Kansas counties with and without mask mandates.

www.cdc.gov

 

[RU848789]

Where and how would say the state of NJ be able to test all those asymptomatic and pre symptomatic people daily ? It isn’t set up for that still. Even if able to nobody is going to test unless a family member or contact has tested positive. If you have symptoms fine if not you would be testing everyday. Appointments and Referrals are still required at some testing facilities. Not as easy nor convenient as some believe.

As I said, it would be very doable if we had an at home test, like a pregnancy test - we almost have the technology ready, but it needs more investment from what I've read, especially from government - Fauci has said he wished we had spent a lot more on this kind of testing over the last several months. The antigen-style testing is far less complex than the "standard" PCR viral RNA test.

 

[T2Kplus10]

You know what was concerning to me today at the Monty Shop Rite....it wasnt mask wearing as everyone had them on, it was after i bagged my apples put them in the cart and then looked what looked to be superspeading event as about 30 people were all within a foot of each other as you went to the other end of the produce section, carts next to carts, people eyeball to eyeball, no joke. No social distancing and everyone acting as if their mask makes them Superman, I see this all the time as inconsiderate people moose on peoples space in the aisle and come right up and sometimes under them to grab products instead of following common decency and give people space. Heard the Hillsborough shop rite was limiting the amount of people in the store but the frozen food sections was basically ransacked.

I believe the Hills SR had a mechanical issue with the freezers.

 

[RUBOB72]

As I said, it would be very doable if we had an at home test, like a pregnancy test - we almost have the technology ready, but it needs more investment from what I've read, especially from government - Fauci has said he wished we had spent a lot more on this kind of testing over the last several months. The antigen-style testing is far less complex than the "standard" PCR viral RNA test.

Yes exactly what I was telling my wife yesterday on testing in mass daily. It always seems to be the issue doesn’t it ? Somehow government gets in the way with many things especially getting things to the public . Things which may be beneficial to our health systems even if there were no longer a Pandemic running rampant.Thank You for the reply.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Data coming out on the AZ/Oxford vaccine!

The AstraZeneca vaccine, developed in collaboration with the University of Oxford, was assessed over two different dosing regimens.

One dosing regimen showed an effectiveness of 90% when trial participants received a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart. The other showed 62% efficacy when given as two full doses at least one month apart.

The combined analysis from both dosing regimens found average vaccine effectiveness of 70%. No hospitalizations or severe cases of the disease were reported in participants receiving the vaccine.

“These findings show that we have an effective vaccine that will save many lives,” Professor Andrew Pollard, chief investigator of the Oxford Vaccine Trial, said in a statement.

“Excitingly, we’ve found that one of our dosing regimens may be around 90% effective and if this dosing regime is used, more people could be vaccinated with planned vaccine supply.”

A total of 131 Covid-19 cases were assessed in the interim analysis.

Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine shows an average 70% effectiveness in preventing the virus

One regimen showed an effectiveness of 90% when participants received a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart.

www.cnbc.com

Obviously, AZ will surely move forward with the more effective dosing regimen.

 

[pmvon]

Data coming out of the AZ/Oxford vaccine!

The AstraZeneca vaccine, developed in collaboration with the University of Oxford, was assessed over two different dosing regimens.

One dosing regimen showed an effectiveness of 90% when trial participants received a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart. The other showed 62% efficacy when given as two full doses at least one month apart.

The combined analysis from both dosing regimens found average vaccine effectiveness of 70%. No hospitalizations or severe cases of the disease were reported in participants receiving the vaccine.

“These findings show that we have an effective vaccine that will save many lives,” Professor Andrew Pollard, chief investigator of the Oxford Vaccine Trial, said in a statement.

“Excitingly, we’ve found that one of our dosing regimens may be around 90% effective and if this dosing regime is used, more people could be vaccinated with planned vaccine supply.”

A total of 131 Covid-19 cases were assessed in the interim analysis.

Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine shows an average 70% effectiveness in preventing the virus

One regimen showed an effectiveness of 90% when participants received a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart.

www.cnbc.com

Obviously, AZ will surely move forward with the more effective dosing regimen.

Does it make sense that the lower dose was more effective?

 

[RU205]

Does it make sense that the lower dose was more effective?

I'm interested to see the full data set on this.

 

[Knight Shift]

Very concerning hospitalization numbers. Arizona is getting scary.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Does it make sense that the lower dose was more effective?

Yes, it happens often with medicines and pharmaceuticals. Push the dose too high and efficacy goes down. Very commonly seen in trials.

 

[tom1944]

With the flu vaccines they say that even if it does not completely stop you from getting the flu because it is a different strain it often lowers the severity. Will this vaccine be similar in even if you get Covid the impact might not be as great?

 

[pmvon]

With the flu vaccines they say that even if it does not completely stop you from getting the flu because it is a different strain it often lowers the severity. Will this vaccine be similar in even if you get Covid the impact might not be as great?

While the astra vax doesn’t appear to stop the disease as much as the mRNA vaccines, it does appear to perform better on eliminating any serious disease which could be a big win for this one. But I’m just a layman on this topic.

 

[RU848789]

Merck announced today that they have acquired what many think is a breakthrough anti-inflammation therapy from OncoImmune a privately held company in MD for $450MM - it gets them the molecule and there is also an investment in the company; see the first link. This molecule, called SACCOVID or CD24Fc, was shown to reduce the risk of respiratory failure or death by more than 50% in patients hospitalized with Covid and requiring oxygen; the press release in the 2nd link from September discusses the clinical data - which have yet to be published. Even with vaccines, which won't be 100% effective, and the monoclonal antibodies (which look to not work so well in seriously ill patients), there will likely still be some seriously ill patients down the road (and certainly through spring), so if this drug works that well, there will still be a need for it.

This play is all about Merck being able to scaleup and manufacture large quantities of the drug faster than this small company could have done on their own. I imagine my friends in the development and manufacturing areas are going to have a busy 6 months, lol, given Perlmutter's comments at the end of the article, especially the part in bold: “Now that we have this terrible, terrible surge in Covid-19 cases, and so many people are hospitalized in severe or critical condition, and so many people in ICUs, tens of thousands, or potentially hundreds of thousands or more just in the United States might need this drug. We’re going to move heaven and earth to produce the material.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/mer...o-ramp-supply-of-promising-covid-19-drug.html

http://www.oncoimmune.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=1101:oncoimmune-s-saccovid-cd24fc-exhibits-superb-therapeutic-efficacy-a-potential-breakthrough-in-treating-severe-and-critical-covid-19&Itemid=316

“The results are remarkable,” Merck’s research chief, Dr. Roger Perlmutter, said in a telephone interview.
With cases of Covid averaging almost 170,000 a day in the U.S. and a record number of people in the hospital with the disease, a drug that could significantly speed recovery and reduce the risk of death or of patients getting so severely ill they require ventilators could make a major difference in the pandemic.

But there’s a problem: supply. “We realized that this small little company was in no position to make CD24Fc to try and treat all of the people who could potentially benefit from this drug,” Perlmutter said. “We decided that the only way, seriously, that this could be brought to people who need it is for us to lean in with our capabilities.”

Merck plans to shift some of its manufacturing capacity to start making the drug. But it’s a complex medicine to manufacture and it will take time. Perlmutter said he’s aiming for “before the middle of next year, and ideally much before that,” for there to be ample supply.

 

[bac2therac]

a

Very concerning hospitalization numbers. Arizona is getting scary.

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Some perspective

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in intensive care units across Arizona was at 438 on Saturday, the most ICU beds in use in a single day since Aug. 14. The level is below what it was in July, when ICU beds in use for COVID-19 reached 970.

 

[RU848789]

Yes, it happens often with medicines and pharmaceuticals. Push the dose too high and efficacy goes down. Very commonly seen in trials.

A simple dose-response relationship likely has little to do with the results seen for the Astra-Zeneca/Oxford vaccine, though. Much more likely is what Derek Lowe said this morning in his blog on this vaccine, below. The issue of the adenovirus vector (even a chimp adenovirus which humans haven't been exposed to) stimulating the human immune response with the first dose and then having the body's "new" antibodies essentially deactivating the 2nd dose (and will possibly also be an issue for J&J's vaccine which uses a human adenovirus as its vector of delivery) has been talked about since day one. Let's hope the 90% efficacy for the half-dose/full-dose design holds when we see more data on this one.

Also, none of the vaccinated patients who became infected with the virus had serious illnesses (only 1 such case for Pfizer and 0 for Moderna - need final data to be sure this difference is real), which is very good. Also, the AZ vaccine is stable under refrigerated conditions vs. cyro storage for Pfizer's (-70C/-94F) and regular freezer (-20C/-4F, with one month refrigerated ok, for Moderna). There were no major side effects seen for any of the vaccines to date, which is great.

Why might there be such a significant split in efficacy? My own wild guess is that perhaps the two-full-dose protocol raised too many antibodies to the adenovirus vector itself, and made the second dose less effective. This has always been a concern with the viral-vector idea. It is, in fact, why this effort is using a chimpanzee adenovirus – because humans haven’t been exposed to it yet. Earlier work in this field kicked off with more common human-infective adenoviruses (particularly Ad5), but there are significant numbers of people in most global populations who have already had that viral infection and have immune memory for it. Dosing people with an Ad5 vector would then run into patients whose immune systems slap down the vaccine before it has a chance to work. That’s not the case for a chimpanzee-infecting form, naturally (few if any people have ever been exposed to that one!) but the two-dose regime may have run into just that problem. Immunology being what it is, though, there are surely other explanations, but that’s the one that occurs to me. Update: there’s always the outside nasty chance that the smaller N in the 90% group is giving a number that won’t hold up. I would hope this isn’t the case, but without a better look at the statistics, it’s not possible to rule that out.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/23/oxford-az-vaccine-efficacy-data

 

[T2Kplus10]

With the flu vaccines they say that even if it does not completely stop you from getting the flu because it is a different strain it often lowers the severity. Will this vaccine be similar in even if you get Covid the impact might not be as great?

Yes, all 3 vaccines show that even if someone still gets infected, it is less likely to be severe/serious.

 

[bac2therac]

not any talk here of the Chinese study that just came out about asymptomatic spread not being a thing

he conclusion is not that asymptomatic spread is rare or that the science is uncertain. The study revealed something that hardly ever happens in these kinds of studies. There was not one documented case. Forget rare. Forget even Fauci’s previous suggestion that asymptomatic transmission exists but not does drive the spread. Replace all that with: never. At least not in this study for 10,000,000.

Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270–0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423–0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.

Asymptomatic Spread Revisited

"We keep hearing about how we should follow the science. The claim is tired by now. We know what’s really happening. The lockdown lobby ignores whatever contradicts their narrative, preferring unverified anecdotes over an actual scientific study of 10 million residents in what was the world’s...

www.aier.org

 

[T2Kplus10]

Merck announced today that they have acquired what many think is a breakthrough anti-inflammation therapy from OncoImmune a privately held company in MD for $450MM - it gets them the molecule and there is also an investment in the company; see the first link. This molecule, called SACCOVID or CD24Fc, was shown to reduce the risk of respiratory failure or death by more than 50% in patients hospitalized with Covid and requiring oxygen; the press release in the 2nd link from September discusses the clinical data - which have yet to be published. Even with vaccines, which won't be 100% effective, and the monoclonal antibodies (which look to not work so well in seriously ill patients), there will likely still be some seriously ill patients down the road (and certainly through spring), so if this drug works that well, there will still be a need for it.

This play is all about Merck being able to scaleup and manufacture large quantities of the drug faster than this small company could have done on their own. I imagine my friends in the development and manufacturing areas are going to have a busy 6 months, lol, given Perlmutter's comments at the end of the article, especially the part in bold: “Now that we have this terrible, terrible surge in Covid-19 cases, and so many people are hospitalized in severe or critical condition, and so many people in ICUs, tens of thousands, or potentially hundreds of thousands or more just in the United States might need this drug. We’re going to move heaven and earth to produce the material.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/mer...o-ramp-supply-of-promising-covid-19-drug.html

http://www.oncoimmune.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=1101:oncoimmune-s-saccovid-cd24fc-exhibits-superb-therapeutic-efficacy-a-potential-breakthrough-in-treating-severe-and-critical-covid-19&Itemid=316

“The results are remarkable,” Merck’s research chief, Dr. Roger Perlmutter, said in a telephone interview.
With cases of Covid averaging almost 170,000 a day in the U.S. and a record number of people in the hospital with the disease, a drug that could significantly speed recovery and reduce the risk of death or of patients getting so severely ill they require ventilators could make a major difference in the pandemic.

But there’s a problem: supply. “We realized that this small little company was in no position to make CD24Fc to try and treat all of the people who could potentially benefit from this drug,” Perlmutter said. “We decided that the only way, seriously, that this could be brought to people who need it is for us to lean in with our capabilities.”

Merck plans to shift some of its manufacturing capacity to start making the drug. But it’s a complex medicine to manufacture and it will take time. Perlmutter said he’s aiming for “before the middle of next year, and ideally much before that,” for there to be ample supply.

Merck is great at buying other company's products. :)