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OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more

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I think I will wear a mask during flu season when I go into stores and also wear it if I have a cold or am feeling a little under the weather so I dont spread anything to other people.

The fact that other people might be upset by me wearing a mask is just a cherry on top.
 
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tom1944 said:
I think I will wear a mask during flu season when I go into stores and also wear it if I have a cold or am feeling a little under the weather so I dont spread anything to other people.

The fact that other people might be upset by me wearing a mask is just a cherry on top.
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That is what you say now. But will you be saying that in 2, 5, or 10 years ? And why would anyone be upset with you ? I could not care less if you wear a mask or not , none of my business. Me , my stance is screw the mask !
 
e5fdny said:
My assumption is the mask isn't for the person wearing it. Isn't that what we have been told all along?

So when would someone be good after getting the vaccine where you don't have to wear it.
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The mask protects the wearer to some extent from others who are infected and it also greatly reduces the viral load being expelled into the atmosphere from an infected person. Mask effectiveness is a function of mask type, how well it's worn and the amount of viral load. They're clearly not perfect, which is why distancing is better and distancing plus masking is best. And keep in mind that much of the increase in cases recently has been due to indoor transmissions within families and/or at private events, which has been borne out by the spike after Thanksgiving. Have posted detailed posts featuring discussion of the scientific data on masks before and could find/link them if interested.

With regard to mask wearing after vaccines, my post below from the othrer night discusses much of this. We truly only know that there's a 95% reduction in vaccinated people who actually come down with symptomatic infections vs. the unvaccinated, but we don't yet have the definitive data we need on what % of vaccinated people become infected, but are asymptomatic. However, the Moderna data on that suggests strongly (but doesn't statistically "prove" - need more data) that asymptomatic infections were reduced for peope who were vaccinated.

So, until we get more complete data on this (which I hope is going to be collected now with the vaccine rollouts for each vaccine), the guidance will be for the vaccinated to keep wearing masks to protect others. My prediction is that with maybe 35-40% of eligible adults being vaccinated by the end of 1Q along with 30% or more of people who are infected/recovered by then (some overlap in those groups) we'll see infections plummet by early Feb and be close to zero by the end of March. Whether or not mask-wearing guidance becomes relaxed by then is an open question, but knowing the American pubic, if cases go way down, most vaccinated people

RU848789 said:
Yep and it looks just as good as the Pfizer one, plus it doesn't have the cryogenic storage needs. Should be approved for emergency useFriday or Saturday. Been away for a few days given the snowstorm, but if it wasn't discussed, there was one other very interesting observation from the Moderna trial. They looked at asymptomatic infections in the nose after the first shot and saw reductions vs. placebo, but the results are merely suggestive of a reduction in asymptomatic infections for vaccinated people and not conclusive (not enough statistical power); Pfizer did not explore this, but given how similar results have been for both vaccines, one would expect them to share this element of performance.

But common sense says that a primed immune system ought to be able to prevent infections completely in more people than those who aren't vaccinated but get infected. Not having ironclad data on that, though is why many think we'll still need distancing/masking for some time, unless we can develop that data by monitoring enoug people post-vaccination after approval. However, IMO, we're going to see case rates start to plummet by the end of January, after vaccinating ~20MM health care workers, 2-3MM LTC residents and a good chunk (tens of millions) of front line workers and the elderly in general (plus we'll likely be near 30-35% of the general population having been infected and no longer infectious). If we see cases plummet by February, perhaps restrictions will be loosened for some events like sports, especially if one can show a record of vaccination. I hope so, as I really want to go to the NCAAs this year, given what happened last year.

The other good news we got the other day was that the Administration announced that they had purchased another 100MM doses from Moderna (for 50MM people) for 2Q21, to augment the 100MM doses from Moderna through 1Q21 and the 100MM doses from Pfizer through 1Q21. This means we'll have enough doses for 100MM people (30% of the US, although it's actually 37% of vaccine-eligible people, since ~65MM children aren't eligible for the vaccine yet). The extra 100MM doses get us to enough for 55% of adults in 2Q, which is likely to get us to herd immunity when combined with the number of people who have already been infected and are immune (there's some overlap, as some of them will get vaccinated). And if a few of the next wave of vaccines can come through by 2Q, we'll be in even better shape. That's why I think we're going to get back to at least close to normal sometime in 2Q21, faster than most others think.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-per...nalysis-details-support-moderna-covid-vaccine

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/15/...tion=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

P.S. What a mess this thread has become with all the incessant bickering about mostly non-scientific crap, which was not the aim of the thread, but moderation has been abdicated from what I can tell. When T is my favorite poster in a thread, something has gone wrong, lol. 😄😄
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ScarletNut said:
Once they find out if the vaccine prevents the spread of the virus. That hasn't happened yet with Moderna or Pfizer's vaccine. IIRC, the JNJ vaccine does prevent the spread but isn't due out yet until later next year.
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Good to know. 👍
 
tom1944 said:
I think I will wear a mask during flu season when I go into stores and also wear it if I have a cold or am feeling a little under the weather so I don't spread anything to other people.

The fact that other people might be upset by me wearing a mask is just a cherry on top.
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As to the first part...you could have always done that. I have seen people do this for years for the reasons you mentioned.

As to the your second part...why? LOL

I want to know, and I see some have tried to answer, when won't you be FORCED to wear one after a vaccination?
 
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e5fdny said:
As to the first part...you could have always done that. I have seen people do this for years for the reasons you mentioned.

As to the your second part...why? LOL

I want to know, and I see some have tried to answer, when won't you be FORCED to wear one after a vaccination?
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Awareness is one reason I will wear a mask at certain times. I also have a case of masks in my car. May as well get some use

I would bet you will not have to wear a mask by the fall 2021
 
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tom1944 said:
Awareness is one reason I will wear a mask at certain times. I also have a case of masks in my car. May as well get some use

I would bet you will not have to wear a mask by the fall 2021
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Okay.

But what did you mean by here....
tom1944 said:
The fact that other people might be upset by me wearing a mask is just a cherry on top.
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What does awareness have to do with this?
 
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Joey Bags said:
Any chance these supply chain issues are really a pause to get more data on the variant in the UK in the event that strain renders the pfizer and moderna variant significantly less effective?
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No. Not at all. That is beyond unthinkable especially in this disastrous time we are facing.
 
tom1944 said:
I think I will wear a mask during flu season when I go into stores and also wear it if I have a cold or am feeling a little under the weather so I dont spread anything to other people.

The fact that other people might be upset by me wearing a mask is just a cherry on top.
Click to expand...
Why would anyone be mad with you for wearing a mask??
 
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tom1944 said:
I think I will wear a mask during flu season when I go into stores and also wear it if I have a cold or am feeling a little under the weather so I dont spread anything to other people.

The fact that other people might be upset by me wearing a mask is just a cherry on top.
Click to expand...
tom1944 if as you say you are wearing a mask and you adhere to distancing how do you acquire a common cold or the flu? Doesn’t wearing a mask serve as protection against flu and cold virus too ... seems a little strange... so the mask wearing helps with the deadly Covid 19 virus but you are worrying about flu and colds...hmmmn strange fear there.
 
Caliknight said:
Moderna releasing 6MM does this week. Incredible work by President Trump and Operation Warp Speed!
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My wife’s hospital is scheduled for the Moderna vaccine delivery by Tuesday and will start administering within 24 hours! I’m excited for her and her coworkers. It’s been a long 9 months there. What an incredible achievement when the bureaucrats and the red tape get trimmed.
 
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tom1944 said:
Awareness is one reason I will wear a mask at certain times. I also have a case of masks in my car. May as well get some use

I would bet you will not have to wear a mask by the fall 2021
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Oh yes you will ... as Mr. TV used to say” take it to the Bank” ..
MulletCork said:
My wife’s hospital is scheduled for the Moderna vaccine delivery by Tuesday and will start administering within 24 hours! I’m excited for her and her coworkers. It’s been a long 9 months there. What an incredible achievement when the bureaucrats and the red tape get trimmed.
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Good for her MulletCork
 
WhiteBus said:
Doesn't surprise me at all. Without the perceived safety of the mask people may finally be serious about social distancing. Social distancing...hmmm sounds like it works better. They should make that a focus. Best thing about social distancing is it's not a political statement.
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unfortunately social distancing is at its worst in the grocery stores yet again this week. Why do idiots have to text or talk on the phone clogging up lanes. The other day some jerk was on the phone with his wife looking for rainbow sherbet bothering the guy working in the aisle, "they only have orange" he told the wife as he clogged up the aisle with his cart body not to mention his constant talking letting the virus spread out of his mask in the crowded aisle.

with masks people are not social distancing AT ALL in grocery stores. its just amazing to watch, people being just as rude and pushy as always. They need to ban phones and children in the grocery stores
 
RU848789 said:
The mask protects the wearer to some extent from others who are infected and it also greatly reduces the viral load being expelled into the atmosphere from an infected person. Mask effectiveness is a function of mask type, how well it's worn and the amount of viral load. They're clearly not perfect, which is why distancing is better and distancing plus masking is best. And keep in mind that much of the increase in cases recently has been due to indoor transmissions within families and/or at private events, which has been borne out by the spike after Thanksgiving. Have posted detailed posts featuring discussion of the scientific data on masks before and could find/link them if interested.

With regard to mask wearing after vaccines, my post below from the othrer night discusses much of this. We truly only know that there's a 95% reduction in vaccinated people who actually come down with symptomatic infections vs. the unvaccinated, but we don't yet have the definitive data we need on what % of vaccinated people become infected, but are asymptomatic. However, the Moderna data on that suggests strongly (but doesn't statistically "prove" - need more data) that asymptomatic infections were reduced for peope who were vaccinated.

So, until we get more complete data on this (which I hope is going to be collected now with the vaccine rollouts for each vaccine), the guidance will be for the vaccinated to keep wearing masks to protect others. My prediction is that with maybe 35-40% of eligible adults being vaccinated by the end of 1Q along with 30% or more of people who are infected/recovered by then (some overlap in those groups) we'll see infections plummet by early Feb and be close to zero by the end of March. Whether or not mask-wearing guidance becomes relaxed by then is an open question, but knowing the American pubic, if cases go way down, most vaccinated people
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you sound more optimistic and actually more common sense than Fauci and others with only 40% having to be vaccinated. I fear they will push for a very very large number before they want to relax restrictions even if numbers go low
 
bac2therac said:
you sound more optimistic and actually more common sense than Fauci and others with only 40% having to be vaccinated. I fear they will push for a very very large number before they want to relax restrictions even if numbers go low
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Thanks, but don't get me wrong - I'd like to see everyone vaccinated, but realistically if 30% are infected/immune by early Feb and we can vaccinate 60% of those eligible over 16 (including almost all of the most vulnerable and health care workers) by the end of April, assuming half of those infected also get vaccines (50% overlap, which is 15% of the population roughly), that's 75% of the adult population who are then almost all immune, which is essentially herd immunity (estimates on that have been 55-80%).

And transmissions don't just start going down when we reach herd immunity - they should start dropping off swiftly by the time we vaccinate maybe 20-30% of the adult population, which should be by early February. I think we'll start to see relaxations in restrictions when transmission levels go way down and not before then, but I think some are thinking they have to be zero for that and I disagree - but I'm not in charge. However, even if transmissions drop quickly by early February, I could see being conservative and not relaxing restrictions much until maybe the end of March or April, just to be sure - but not waiting until September.
 
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I like your thinking. I too dont think that they should have go to zero cases unfortunately I think some doctors and politicians are going to be fighting hard for zero. We shall see
 
e5fdny said:
Okay.

But what did you mean by here....
What does awareness have to do with this?
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Awareness comes into play because I really never gave much thought to how a virus spread. I mean I knew but I never thought that I could do something real easy to limit it.
 
RUBOB72 said:
tom1944 if as you say you are wearing a mask and you adhere to distancing how do you acquire a common cold or the flu? Doesn’t wearing a mask serve as protection against flu and cold virus too ... seems a little strange... so the mask wearing helps with the deadly Covid 19 virus but you are worrying about flu and colds...hmmmn strange fear there.
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Hopefully I will not. I generally do not get sick so this small step of mask wearing would make it even more unlikely.

I do not consider myself fearful about it
 
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tom1944 said:
Awareness comes into play because I really never gave much thought to how a virus spread. I mean I knew but I never thought that I could do something real easy to limit it.
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I was asking what you meant by this...
tom1944 said:
The fact that other people might be upset by me wearing a mask is just a cherry on top.
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I still have no idea what you’re talking about or what your point is with this comment here.
 
RU848789 said:
Thanks, but don't get me wrong - I'd like to see everyone vaccinated, but realistically if 30% are infected/immune by early Feb and we can vaccinate 60% of those eligible over 16 (including almost all of the most vulnerable and health care workers) by the end of April, assuming half of those infected also get vaccines (50% overlap, which is 15% of the population roughly), that's 75% of the adult population who are then almost all immune, which is essentially herd immunity (estimates on that have been 55-80%).

And transmissions don't just start going down when we reach herd immunity - they should start dropping off swiftly by the time we vaccinate maybe 20-30% of the adult population, which should be by early February. I think we'll start to see relaxations in restrictions when transmission levels go way down and not before then, but I think some are thinking they have to be zero for that and I disagree - but I'm not in charge. However, even if transmissions drop quickly by early February, I could see being conservative and not relaxing restrictions much until maybe the end of March or April, just to be sure - but not waiting until September.
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Are you concerned about this new mutant strain in England and how do U suppose it will effect the vaccine?
 
mikemarc1 said:
Are you concerned about this new mutant strain in England and how do U suppose it will effect the vaccine?
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See my post from last night. Am concerned if it truly is much more infectious, but that's not really known yet, despite what the PM said. Am not concerned about "escape" from the vaccine, but everyone has to be concerned about longer term, more significant mutations, which could eventually lead to enough antigenic drift to reduce vaccine efficacy (not expected for this variant) and require a revision to the vaccine, which wouldn't be that hard to do.
 
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Walter Reed doing analysis on the UK strain to determine if there is any effect on the current vaccines. Should have results back in a few days.

Not going to lie, the EU is a s***show at the moment. The whole UK deal feels a lot like Italy back in March. Market futures aren't spooked yet though which is good.
 
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