OT- Did anyone sell equities in reaction to brexit?
- Thread starter Extra Point
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Fear of the unknown, of change. On top of that, an upcoming election and an over-valued market. Correction is/was due. Brexit just accelerated things.
Not selling, just waiting for some buying opportunities to emerge. Bank stocks, which have been valued low since the housing crash, seem to be taking the biggest hit now. Might present some nice opportunities to purchase some dividend paying stocks at a discount.
The stronger dollar affects the FX and sales in other currencies when converted will be lower. The corporations doing a lot of international sales will be affected. The financials stocks have been destroyed also because the interest increase expectation has been moved to 2017 instead of later this year.
The Dow has dropped about 900 points in the last 2 trading days which is about 6% from the high. I expect it to go down another 4 %. I would worry if I had a lot in the market. I moved my money to mostly cash before the decision in the UK. I brought some stocks on Friday and today but still have about 60% in cash waiting for more drop. I brought stocks that are close to 52 week low like WFC 3.5% div, AAPL 2.5%, MET 4.3 %, and other with 4 % div like ETN, EMR, PRU. I think I am way too early on PRU, ETN, EMR but couldn't resist not buying. I brought some FB today and will continue stock piling it. AMZN and GOOG will drop 50 points each before the market recoveries.
I gave you a few to look at in my other post. WFC is at its low and wait for the other to hit 4.5% dividend.
I have 2 UK stocks I plan to buy when it settles down BP and DEO. With the GP devalued, the cost goes down and the sales are in dollars so margins increase.
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BBT 3.5%, MET 4.3%, PRU 4.3%, EMR 3.8%, ETN 4%, Csco 3.8 %
The financials will go up again when talk of interest rate increase happens again probably in 2017 just collect dividends.
If Trump wins the election, sell before hand because this will cause the markets to crash.
How can MetLife afford to pay out 4.3% dividends? Do they pay out 4.3% consistently? They sell life insurance, right?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=MET&a=03&b=5&c=2000&d=05&e=28&f=2016&g=v
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MET+Interactive#{"allowChartStacking":true}
They dividend has been increased or stayed the same since 2002, see attachment. The second one is the chart and you can see the dip when interest rates didn't go up and when they though interest was going to raise the stock went up to 46 dollars.
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Dave, nice analysis but from someone who took lots of econ-one one class during MBA with "your" type of analysis, it would help some of us if you spelled out some of the terms other than stock symbols. Else its often WTF! Always found the charts and relationships fascinating but a bit scary in class as you had to both carefully draw the graps and note the relationships carefully. Taped my whole aggregate econ class and then bombed the fiinal as there was only time for 1-2 line answers if that. Was very p*ssed off after my final.
Well, you still need to look at each of the stock yourself and made your own judgment, but the financials all took a dive the last couple of weeks due to the interest rates expected to stay the same until 2017. MET went down 10 pts in 1 month about 25% drop to give it the high dividend but when interest rate finally are expected to increase at some point, the stock will increase again. This is true with all the financial stocks like WFC, BBT, and PRU. I'm trying to be cautious and buying them at their 52 week low. It's not a perfect strategy but it works most of the time. The high dividend give you some protection since investors are always seeking yields.
What's funny is the opposite trend, the REITs were really low because of their set dividends same as utilities and telco Att and Verizon because everyone though rates were going up. When everyone realized rates are staying the same, the REITs , ATT and VZ shot up to their highs in a couple of weeks.
Dave, perhaps to clarify I meant you abbreviated some terms-not talking stock symbols. Yes, AT&T and VZ often considered stocks to hold during tough periods. High yield. My friends fathers old company (big pharma alum who during his time was ahead of the Pharmacy School namesake whose son graduated HS with us) BMY?
Haven't done too much during this big drop, only added some more NKE in the last couple trading sessions. They have earnings after the bell today. It's down about 25% off the highs late last year and down about 15% YTD.
So we'll see how they do but I think it could set up for at least a relief rally with just decent earnings and mid single digit growth. Currency issues could affect their guidance, I think over half of sales is from oversees, so that's something to keep an eye on. If it's not good I see support around 49 area or IMO worst case mid 40s at the August lows last year and those are places I'll look to add more if needed.
So we'll see how they do but I think it could set up for at least a relief rally with just decent earnings and mid single digit growth. Currency issues could affect their guidance, I think over half of sales is from oversees, so that's something to keep an eye on. If it's not good I see support around 49 area or IMO worst case mid 40s at the August lows last year and those are places I'll look to add more if needed.
I don't know even know if it was a panic. Market isn't that much off the highs. Really outside the European financials it didn't feel too "panicky" to me.
Yup I got some SO/VZ around that time when all the fed governors were chirping about a June rate hike and the safe dividend plays got hit a bit. Have since sold both after the tepid jobs reports. Add in Brexit now and forget about a rate raise any time soon. I can't justify buying some of these yield plays though. Everyone is hoarding into them and their valuations are just too much. Not sure if/when another opportunity will present itself.
Had been trading in KR/HRL recently too and regret that I didn't own them these last couple trading sessions. They showed some very good strength these last couple trading sessions when the market was selling off. They're not even yield plays so much but I think they showed good strength likely because they're domestic and with Brexit good companies that get most of their revenue here will likely be a place some will flock towards.
It was at 35.74 last February looking at the second chart so it hasn't gone down a whole lot yesterday, it didn't go below its low. Since I am going to wait it is almost guaranteed to go up today.
So, you expected the vote to go the way it did? The overwhelming opinion of the markets was that that would not happen. Color me skeptical and I don't remember a post about dumping equities because this was going to occur. So, you moved to "mostly" cash before the decision? Yet you bought "some stocks" on Friday and Mon and are now down to 60% in cash? So you dumped x% into the market on those 2 days? Do I have this correct?
I dump it when the market was close to the high when the final earnings came out around first week of May. I knew the market would dive at some point and even Cramer thought stock would drop before the UK decision. Yes, I probably brought too much on Friday and brought more on Monday. Still have 60% to buy.
I don't want to give all my secrets away but watch the cycles. It took me 40 years of investing to get a better understanding of the market and I still learn everyday.
waiting to see what the market will be like in a few days. Have lots of cash on the sidelines waiting for the right opportunity to invest.
I'm kicking myself. I knew there would be at least a day of panic selling on Friday and possibly Monday because people love to panic. I told my wife we should sell everything by lunch on Thursday and buy it back early this week. She reminded me of that today at lunch. "That's why I'm still working", was my response to her.
If you are making moves as a reaction you have a pretty poor investment philosophy. When I see post like this I cringe.
Well you're not the only one. Most of the market was on the wrong side of it thinking they would remain, that's part of the reason for the big move down. Really though like I said above outside of the European financials, I don't see much panic. You know it's ironic one position I did try to get out of on Thursday before the decision didn't hit my sell price but on Friday the day everything went down it sold. Go figure, lol.
I do agree with the above that the market was near the highs before the vote and I said there was a good chance for a sell the news selloff even if they remained. It just got exacerbated by the surprise of the leave decision. Some were thinking it could be a possible breakout to new highs before the vote but I wasn't so sure and we still haven't done it and seems like it will be hard now with Brexit. There have been multiple attempts for new highs on the S&P, still hasn't happened but you never know. I was completely surprised by the tear the market went on the months following the Feb. lows.
There may be some select names that have shown a little more weakness but overall I'm not "impressed" by the selling the last couple sessions before today. I thought there was more panic back in Jan/Feb with China then I feel there is right now.
Well looks like I'll have to add more NKE to my position. Earnings actually didn't seem so bad to justify the pounding it's taking after hours. Bottom line basically inline, top line little light but not much and revenue growth in that mid single digit range I mentioned above at 6%. Future orders excluding currency is 11% expectations of 12%. Considering it was already oversold, little surprised it's being sold this hard on IMO so so earnings. But like I've said in the past here, got to be ready for either eventuality and have powder available to deploy at places you think there might be support.
EDIT: Looks like it tested that 49 area support in the extended hours but seems to be rebounding now as guidance has been reaffirmed for 2017, well that's illiquid extended hours trading for you lol. It's down but not much and is more in line with type of reaction I would have expected considering the earnings. Will see how it opens tomorrow.
EDIT: Looks like it tested that 49 area support in the extended hours but seems to be rebounding now as guidance has been reaffirmed for 2017, well that's illiquid extended hours trading for you lol. It's down but not much and is more in line with type of reaction I would have expected considering the earnings. Will see how it opens tomorrow.
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EXACTLY........people over reacting and selling in a frenzy is what is killing some folks
Nice swing on NKE from after hours yesterday to pre market this morning. Futures positive and NKE up now pre market so hopefully the lift will continue a little more. I think people are coming to their senses and digesting that the earnings were so so not so bad that it should have tanked 7% after hours but hey it allowed me to add some more cheaper shares to my position.
EDIT: Sold all but my cheapest shares acquired after hours yesterday at the open.
EDIT: Sold all but my cheapest shares acquired after hours yesterday at the open.
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40 years of investing taught you how to time the market? I would have thought the opposite.
Well, if you go by all the rules of investing then everybody would only buy mutual funds or ETF's and no one would buy individual stocks. In addition, you would never sell unless you need the money because the stock market always go up in the long term. I would say most people shouldn't try to time the market since most sell when the market goes down and buy when the market goes up. I tend to sell when the market or the stock is near its high and buy when it's near it lows on quality stocks.
It's not a sector I trade in anymore but many of the US financials upped their dividends and buybacks after passing the stress tests.
