OT: Overnight euro showing snow for this Friday evening
- Thread starter Tango Two
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I think for you, it would come in handy when you want to grab something from the NWS conversations. It’s better than a traditional link because as you said, they’re fluid and always updating. And maybe in the hoverlink title it with what we really need to know on the ensuing weather event: “This is what they think is going to happen” and then spoiler that particular part of the conversation.
Try that and some charts and we’re good.👍
PhDs design the plane
College graduates fly it
HS grads fix it
All types watch it at an air show
We’re collectively the last group when it comes to weather threads. LOL
K.I.S.S. 🙂
For those interested in today's 12Z models and potential snowfall, here's the updated model blend, zoomed in for our area. The NWS will be updating their maps with the ~4 pm package and I wouldn't be surprised if it looked like the NBM. Could be a minor to moderate (1-4" mostly depending on elevation) snowfall late Thurs/early Fri for areas NW of 287 and N of 78 in NNJ/NEPA (could see advisories for those areas), after the 1-2" or so of rain. Looks like one has to go well NW to the Poconos and beyond to get to 6" or more, above 1000', which is where the winter storm watches are up.
We're so screwed: the Ark isn't going to be completed by Thursday night.
1.5 to 2 inches of rain at the shore. Drought over!!!!
NJ storm on the way: Will Ocean and Monmouth counties see first bits of snow?
Will winter weather show its face on the Shore?
www.app.com
Was hoping nobody would post this, lol. It's not that it's not interesting, but it's so far out that it's what the weather pros call winter weather weenie model porn, since there are far more model runs showing big snowstorms 7+ days out than there are big snowstorms that actually materialize, i.e., most don't pan out. If one just looks at the 3 major global models that run out to 10 days or more (GFS/Euro/CMC), they run 2 (CMC) or 4 (Euro/GFS) times per day, so from Day 10 to Day 7, that's 40 model runs and in the winter there is often 1 or 2 runs among those 40 that show a snowstorm.
However, it's also true that almost every big snowstorm is "sniffed out" by the models 7-10 days in advance, i.e., one will see more than 1 or 2 rogue model runs from Day 10 to Day 7 showing a big snowstorm and right now, we have 2 of the 3 models (Euro/GFS) showing a major snowstorm 9-10 days out (and at least 1-2 earlier runs showed a decent snowstorm just north of us, which is still a strong signal for a storm). So, strictly from a probability perspective, the potential Black Friday snowstorm is a bit more likely than a snowstorm on any other random day 7-10 days out, but I'd be hard pressed to put a number on it, although I'll take a WAG stab at it. Just for background if one gets a normal 25" winter in this area, that likely means ~5 significant snowfalls (of maybe 3-7", but it could also be 3 significant snowfalls with one being 16") over about ~100 days where significant snow is most likely (maybe 12/1 through 3/10), so the rough chance of any random day having significant snow is about 5%. I'd say 2 models showing significant snow 9-10 days out probably jacks that probability of significant snow up to at least 10% for Black Friday.
For Thanksgiving snow, NYC hasn't had much, but in 1989 4.4" fell (and 6.0" in Newark), so presumably the rest of the area also got snow - where were you at the time? I was in SNJ that year and recall getting an inch or two (Philly got 2.8", but we often got less).
https://en.as.com/latest_news/will-...en-was-the-last-time-it-snowed-in-november-n/
Models are trash 10 even 5 days out
People have short memories
People have short memories
Not so fast my friend - most locations are 9-12" below normal for the past 3 months, although most of NJ is only about 3-6" below normal for the entire year. Either way this will help, but won't end the drought.1.5 to 2 inches of rain at the shore. Drought over!!!!
NJ storm on the way: Will Ocean and Monmouth counties see first bits of snow?
Will winter weather show its face on the Shore?www.app.com
https://www.nj.com/weather/2024/11/heres-how-much-rain-nj-needs-to-help-end-the-severe-drought.html
Remember it being sometime in late 80s/early 90s - 1989 sounds like the one. Was in central Jersey and remember it being a legit "go play in the snow" storm, not just a dusting. Don't recall the exact amount but 6+ sounds about right.
Below are the updated snowfall and total precip graphics for the region from the NWS-Philly (love these new maps that show more than the counties under their jurisdiction). The rainfall is very significant obviously and much needed, while the snowfall map is quite similar to the NBM model blend map above and are a bit less than one sees on most individual models, as discussed previously - most models show "snowfall" i.e., how much snow is falling at a 10:1 ratio and assuming it all accumulates, whereas the NWS snowfall maps and the NBM map show actual estimated accumulated snowfall on the ground, which will be much less, especially for areas outside of the Poconos, as all other areas will have borderline surface temps (32-35F), antecedent warm/wet ground, and some mixing with rain in the column, plus some will fall during daylight, all of which serve to hold down accumulations significantly.For those interested in today's 12Z models and potential snowfall, here's the updated model blend, zoomed in for our area. The NWS will be updating their maps with the ~4 pm package and I wouldn't be surprised if it looked like the NBM. Could be a minor to moderate (1-4" mostly depending on elevation) snowfall late Thurs/early Fri for areas NW of 287 and N of 78 in NNJ/NEPA (could see advisories for those areas), after the 1-2" or so of rain. Looks like one has to go well NW to the Poconos and beyond to get to 6" or more, above 1000', which is where the winter storm watches are up.
Wantage in Sussex County is a great example: the NWS map shows <1", but the GFS, Euro, NAM, etc. all show 6" or more at Wantage, but that's likely way overdone. Same is certainly true for any where near the 95 corridor, which is why people shouldn't assume we're going to see an inch or two there, as some models show, but will more likely see maybe a coating at most, with a decent amount of "white rain" i.e., snow that falls and melts. One would need very high snowfall rates (1" per hour or more) to overcome these melting factors to get a decent accumulation. Would love to see it, but it's highly unlikely for anywhere near 95, especially since the heaviest precip is most likely to be 75+ miles NW of 95 early Friday morning when temps might get cold enough for snow, meaning snowfall rates are very unlikely to overcome melting rates.
Trying out the new quote feature (new to me) - below is the NWS-Philly full discussion.
Oh I know it’s to far out to really mean anything. I just got a kick outta it that I saw it trending. I guess it only takes one model run for people to start the hype. In 89 I was in Trenton where I grew up.
Yeah, well the jokes on him as I really did take care of my snowblower today.
It is up and running. So consider this as our version of the groundhog…we good, fam. We good.😎
***EDIT*** not sure if this range extends, nor do I care, as far as sara land.
Below are the updated snowfall and total precip graphics for the region from the NWS-Philly (love these new maps that show more than the counties under their jurisdiction). The rainfall is very significant obviously and much needed, while the snowfall map is quite similar to the NBM model blend map above and are a bit less than one sees on most individual models, as discussed previously - most models show "snowfall" i.e., how much snow is falling at a 10:1 ratio and assuming it all accumulates, whereas the NWS snowfall maps and the NBM map show actual estimated accumulated snowfall on the ground, which will be much less, especially for areas outside of the Poconos, as all other areas will have borderline surface temps (32-35F), antecedent warm/wet ground, and some mixing with rain in the column, plus some will fall during daylight, all of which serve to hold down accumulations significantly.
Wantage in Sussex County is a great example: the NWS map shows <1", but the GFS, Euro, NAM, etc. all show 6" or more at Wantage, but that's likely way overdone. Same is certainly true for any where near the 95 corridor, which is why people shouldn't assume we're going to see an inch or two there, as some models show, but will more likely see maybe a coating at most, with a decent amount of "white rain" i.e., snow that falls and melts. One would need very high snowfall rates (1" per hour or more) to overcome these melting factors to get a decent accumulation. Would love to see it, but it's highly unlikely for anywhere near 95, especially since the heaviest precip is most likely to be 75+ miles NW of 95 early Friday morning when temps might get cold enough for snow, meaning snowfall rates are very unlikely to overcome melting rates.
Trying out the new quote feature (new to me) - below is the NWS-Philly full discussion.
Below is the radar estimated rainfall for the storm so far. Looks like most have gotten between 0.75 and 1.5" in the region, which was much needed. The rain is mostly over for the Philly/SNJ with maybe only another 1/4" of rain to come, but further north there is still a decent amount to come especially north of 78 with an inch or more of additional precip likely. In addition, there's still the potential for snow late tonight into Friday for areas well NW of 95, where several inches are likely, especially above 1000' in the Poconos and maybe far NW Sussex and the Catskills, as cold air wraps in around the retrograding low. Could even be the first measurable snow (1/2" or so) for areas north of 78 and west of 287 up to the NY line and beyond. Hoping to still get mood flakes and maybe a coating here and along 95. Updated precip to come and snowfall to come maps below.
Are you scheduling a trip to Mt Pocono? 🙃Below are the updated snowfall and total precip graphics for the region from the NWS-Philly (love these new maps that show more than the counties under their jurisdiction). The rainfall is very significant obviously and much needed, while the snowfall map is quite similar to the NBM model blend map above and are a bit less than one sees on most individual models, as discussed previously - most models show "snowfall" i.e., how much snow is falling at a 10:1 ratio and assuming it all accumulates, whereas the NWS snowfall maps and the NBM map show actual estimated accumulated snowfall on the ground, which will be much less, especially for areas outside of the Poconos, as all other areas will have borderline surface temps (32-35F), antecedent warm/wet ground, and some mixing with rain in the column, plus some will fall during daylight, all of which serve to hold down accumulations significantly.
Wantage in Sussex County is a great example: the NWS map shows <1", but the GFS, Euro, NAM, etc. all show 6" or more at Wantage, but that's likely way overdone. Same is certainly true for any where near the 95 corridor, which is why people shouldn't assume we're going to see an inch or two there, as some models show, but will more likely see maybe a coating at most, with a decent amount of "white rain" i.e., snow that falls and melts. One would need very high snowfall rates (1" per hour or more) to overcome these melting factors to get a decent accumulation. Would love to see it, but it's highly unlikely for anywhere near 95, especially since the heaviest precip is most likely to be 75+ miles NW of 95 early Friday morning when temps might get cold enough for snow, meaning snowfall rates are very unlikely to overcome melting rates.
Trying out the new quote feature (new to me) - below is the NWS-Philly full discussion.
No real change. Expect some light and occasional showers, but not a constant rain, as the total rainfall forecast for that area Friday evening is still only about 0.05", which is enough to get people wet, but certainly no deluge. Temps will be around 40F with 5-10 mph winds. Below is the NWS hourly forecast.
No, but thinking of scheduling a lake effect snowstorm trip somewhere in upstate NY this winter...
I am currently in Rishikesh, in the foothills of the Himalayan mountains. Up north of me are the real Himayalan peaks and glaciers, it is called Glacier National park, I think, on the border with China. There's a town called Uttarkashi about 6 hrs north of Rishikesh and you will be among the peaks but a lot of the trekking companies are located in Rishikesh and you can make a package deal with them at a reasonable price and they will provide for everything. One of the closest glaciers is Khatling glacier , about 12000 feet altitude, which after the drive north is a 8 day trek through the mountains with a few stops in small towns and camps. It is called moderately difficult but there a lot of other choices. Rishikesh is a nice place to stay, it is called the yoga capital of the world and there are hundreds of yoga schools here and with that come thousands of stunning yoga BABES from around the world getting their teaching certifactes. I did not think yoga pants could get any tighter until I came here. I have met women from America, England, Israel ,France, Netherlands, Germany and a lot of English. If you got game and are not a broken down mule like me you could have a lot of fun. This is also where the Beatles came in the 60's. Nepal is also right next door. To get here, take a direct flight from Newark to Delhi, then a short flight from Delhi to Dehradun, then a 40minute taxi ride to Rishikesh. I help out in Southern India where it is 85 degress , this was just a quick side trip for me and I am freezing my ass off at night, certainly not prepared for a trek thru the mountains, this time. Hope that helps a little.
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In the future, don’t start threads about the threat of snow showers, ok?"INTERIOR NORTHEAST SNOWSTORM?
Fast-forming Miller-B storm Thursday night should have plenty of cold air advection by Friday morning to convert some moisture to heavy wet snow for the Pocono's/Adirondacks/Catskill mountain areas. The snow levels will be mostly confined north of I-80 for elevations over 800' but wouldn't be shocked at some snow showers getting close to #NYC ! Below is the EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES model blend showing potential for 4-6" (isolated more) in some spots
Below is the radar estimated rainfall for the storm so far. Looks like most have gotten between 0.75 and 1.5" in the region, which was much needed. The rain is mostly over for the Philly/SNJ with maybe only another 1/4" of rain to come, but further north there is still a decent amount to come especially north of 78 with an inch or more of additional precip likely. In addition, there's still the potential for snow late tonight into Friday for areas well NW of 95, where several inches are likely, especially above 1000' in the Poconos and maybe far NW Sussex and the Catskills, as cold air wraps in around the retrograding low. Could even be the first measurable snow (1/2" or so) for areas north of 78 and west of 287 up to the NY line and beyond. Hoping to still get mood flakes and maybe a coating here and along 95. Updated precip to come and snowfall to come maps below.
These are good.No real change. Expect some light and occasional showers, but not a constant rain, as the total rainfall forecast for that area Friday evening is still only about 0.05", which is enough to get people wet, but certainly no deluge. Temps will be around 40F with 5-10 mph winds. Below is the NWS hourly forecast.
Straightforward and to the point.
Is this East Hanover specific?No real change. Expect some light and occasional showers, but not a constant rain, as the total rainfall forecast for that area Friday evening is still only about 0.05", which is enough to get people wet, but certainly no deluge. Temps will be around 40F with 5-10 mph winds. Below is the NWS hourly forecast.
This guy needs to start getting the roads brined STAT!!
Of course it is - do you think I'd give you info on anywhere else? As an aside, it applies to just about all of NNJ, since temps will warm up i the afternoon turning any snow into rain and the precip will also be shutting off for the most part.
Below is the radar estimated rainfall for the storm so far. Looks like most have gotten between 0.75 and 1.5" in the region, which was much needed. The rain is mostly over for the Philly/SNJ with maybe only another 1/4" of rain to come, but further north there is still a decent amount to come especially north of 78 with an inch or more of additional precip likely. In addition, there's still the potential for snow late tonight into Friday for areas well NW of 95, where several inches are likely, especially above 1000' in the Poconos and maybe far NW Sussex and the Catskills, as cold air wraps in around the retrograding low. Could even be the first measurable snow (1/2" or so) for areas north of 78 and west of 287 up to the NY line and beyond. Hoping to still get mood flakes and maybe a coating here and along 95. Updated precip to come and snowfall to come maps below.
The NWS-Philly has issued advisories (blue) for Warren/Morris for 1-4" of snow and Sussex for 2-4" of snow (and 4-6" above 1200') late tonight into tomorrow morning and the NWS-NYC has issued similar advisories for W. Passaic and the Hudson Valley north of the Tappan Zee. For all of these advisories the NWS has tried to make it clear that this event is very elevation dependent, i.e., the 2-4" amounts will most likely be above about 1000' while areas at less than 500' will likely only get an inch or so. The watches for the Poconos/Catskills have been converted to warnings (pink) for 6" or more (and a foot or so above 2500') of snow. I'm sure the maps will be updated shortly.
It's also now likely that we'll even see white rain, i.e., snow that doesn't accumulate due to surface temps in the mid-30s tomorrow morning all the way down to the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC - although some slush could accumulate on grassy/colder surfaces when snowfall intensity is greater. For most of the region, the snow will change back to rain during the afternoon as temps warm back up to 40F or above and as precip rates decrease significantly. Treated roads in the advisory areas at lower elevations will likely not become snow-covered and there is little risk of snow covered roads outside of the advisory areas unless there's a major forecast change.
Edit (9 pm): the NWS updated their precip still to come and storm total snowfall maps to reflect the increases in snowfall for NW areas, as discussed above.
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9.5" reported at Vernon at 1220' vs. 0.9" reported at Wantage at 720' - both in Sussex County with Wantage about 6 miles NW of Vernon. Shows how important elevation is for snowfall for this system. 7.5" in West Milford at 1170'. Snow falling for most of NJ NW of 287 from 78 up to the NY line, but it's mostly melting with not much accumulation unless folks are above 800', so the NWS forecast is looking pretty good. I just want to see some flakes later today. Updated NWS snowfall map is below. Also, most locations have picked up 1-2" of much needed rain with maybe another 1/4-1/2" to come, especially N of 78.
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For those curious, there is still the potential for a winter storm next Thursday/Friday, but as expected this far out, models are all over the place for each run, showing everything from nada to mostly rain with some snow inland to significant snow for everyone.
Thanks for the updates. Oddly enough, I live just one town away from East Hanover in Roseland and my apple weather app is now showing a bunch if snow in roseland tonight yet one town away in east hanover, no snow. What are you seeing for east hanover tonight?9.5" reported at Vernon at 1220' vs. 0.9" reported at Wantage at 720' - both in Sussex County with Wantage about 6 miles NW of Vernon. Shows how important elevation is for snowfall for this system. 7.5" in West Milford at 1170'. Snow falling for most of NJ NW of 287 from 78 up to the NY line, but it's mostly melting with not much accumulation unless folks are above 800', so the NWS forecast is looking pretty good. I just want to see some flakes later today. Updated NWS snowfall map is below. Also, most locations have picked up 1-2" of much needed rain with maybe another 1/4-1/2" to come, especially N of 78.
Eat your heart out.9.5" reported at Vernon at 1220' vs. 0.9" reported at Wantage at 720' - both in Sussex County with Wantage about 6 miles NW of Vernon. Shows how important elevation is for snowfall for this system. 7.5" in West Milford at 1170'. Snow falling for most of NJ NW of 287 from 78 up to the NY line, but it's mostly melting with not much accumulation unless folks are above 800', so the NWS forecast is looking pretty good. I just want to see some flakes later today. Updated NWS snowfall map is below. Also, most locations have picked up 1-2" of much needed rain with maybe another 1/4-1/2" to come, especially N of 78.
