OT: Update on SoCal Weather

[RU848789]

Since the LA wildfire thread got locked, figured folks might still be interested in the short and long range weather forecasts for that area. Unfortunately, there is extreme fire danger for today through Wednesday with wind gusts of 20-40 mph at the lower elevations and 50-70 mph in the mountains, which combined with very dry fuels, very low humidity and ongoing wildfires means we could see continued growth in these wildfires and potentially new fires if people are not careful. It is worth noting that these winds, while extremely dangerous given the ongoing wildfires, are a decent bit lower than the 80-100 mph wind gusts that were observed with the initial wildfires last week, so hopefully the fire spread rates will not be as insane as they were.

In the longer term, unfortunately, neither the GFS nor the Euro shows any rain for SoCal for the next 14 days with the Euro showing perhaps some rain by Day 15, but that's a longshot at this point. On the other hand, wind forecasts look more reasonable after tomorrow and no obvious major Santa Ana windstorms are on the horizon for the next 5-6 days, but winds are difficult to forecast accurately beyond that; humidity will also rise some over the next few days, which will be helpful.

Hopefully after tomorrow the worst of the conditions will be over (and hopefully no more major Santa Ana winds) and recovery can begin for the tens of thousands of people who have been impacted so seriously by this tragedy. Let's try to keep this thread on point, if possible.

https://www.weather.gov/lox/

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/california-fires-winds-updates/

 

[DJ Spanky]

Let's keep this focused strictly on the weather fueling these fires out there.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Really? Even after a mod came on here trying to focus the thread?

I think @Caliknight and anyone actually living this nightmare should be able to post anything he wants.

 

[ashokan]

I hear winds can kick-up covered embers to start other fires quite a few days after main event.

 

[DJ Spanky]

I guess some people don't learn.

I think @Caliknight and anyone actually living this nightmare should be able to post anything he wants.

He can post anything he wants over on the CE Board. If he wants to discuss the damage being done, he's more than welcome to start a thread on the Free Board about that. If he wants to delve into politics and everything surrounding that, that's what the CE Board is for.

 

[RU#1fan]

I hear winds can kick-up covered embers to start other fires quite a few days after main event.

The catastrophic event was obviously made exponentially worse by record winds. Smoke / flames blowing horizontally. Firefighters doing an epic job!

 

[e5fdny]

As mentioned earlier in other threads one of the most important members of the IMT (Incident Management Team) is the meteorologist.

Also, a rekindle is always a possibility. Especially without rain.

 

[RU848789]

As mentioned earlier in other threads one of the most important members of the IMT (Incident Management Team) is the meteorologist.

Also, a rekindle is always a possibility. Especially without rain.

Exactly. Fire investigators suspect that the Palisades fire flared up on 1/7 from the Lachman fire that was "put out" on 1/1, aided by the high winds that act a bit like a bellows, supplying extra air to any embers...and with 14+ dry days ahead and with there always being potential for high winds 7+ days down the road, these fires might not be "over" despite them hopefully being contained in the next couple of days.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-we-know-about-start-of-palisades-fire-los-angeles/

 

[e5fdny]

Exactly. Fire investigators suspect that the Palisades fire flared up on 1/7 from the Lachman fire that was "put out" on 1/1, aided by the high winds that act a bit like a bellows, supplying extra air to any embers...and with 14+ dry days ahead and with there always being potential for high winds 7+ days down the road, these fires might not be "over" despite them hopefully being contained in the next couple of days.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-we-know-about-start-of-palisades-fire-los-angeles/

It’s why you see the wildland firefighters always “tilling” the areas they are a working in. Aside from firebreaks you need to expose and till the burnt out area to make sure you get it all.

It’s dirty (REALLY dirty) and backbreaking work depending on temp and terrain.

 

[Caliknight]

It’s why you see this wildland firefighters always “tilling” the areas they are a working in. Aside from firebreaks you need to expose and till the burnt out area to make sure you get it all.

It’s dirty (REALLY dirty) and backbreaking work depending on temp and terrain.

I haven't seen anyone doing controlled burns or brush clearing here over 10 years here. It's comical. They tell you to clear the brush on your property, but as those of us who live in canyons will tell you, everything on the other side of property lines is wildly overgrown. Fuel for these fires was extremely abundant. It was always going to happen, just a matter of when.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I haven't seen anyone doing controlled burns or brush clearing here over 10 years here. It's comical. They tell you to clear the brush on your property, but as those of us who live in canyons will tell you, everything on the other side of property lines is wildly overgrown. Fuel for these fires was extremely abundant. It was always going to happen, just a matter of when.

That's why State Farm and other insurance companies backed out of LA. The weather isn't a surprise and neither should be the current conditions.

 

[Caliknight]

That's why State Farm and other insurance companies backed out of LA. The weather isn't a surprise and neither should be the current conditions.

If that wasn't the biggest red flag ever I don't know what was. We, like many here, got dropped from our insurance. The reason was no brush clearing in the canyon we live in. You'd think with all of the taxes we pay here we'd have the greatest public service there is. These insurance companies are experts at risk. They sounded the alarm. No one listened.

The CalFair Fire plan has about $400MM. It's being reported that they are on the hook for $24B and growing. As residents of other states who are going to be bailing us out, I would demand that accountability moving forward be part of all funds released. Simply put, we've proven not capable and being given tens of billions of dollars, and it will not be spent wisely. This will happen again.

 

[e5fdny]

I haven't seen anyone doing controlled burns or brush clearing here over 10 years here. It's comical. They tell you to clear the brush on your property, but as those of us who live in canyons will tell you, everything on the other side of property lines is wildly overgrown. Fuel for these fires was extremely abundant. It was always going to happen, just a matter of when.

All the more reason to do the follow up to try and prevent a rekindle.

Like you said the fuel load is huge. And without the additional help from above with rain (and less wind)…it’s going to be tough.

Had a fire in the Georgia swamps the size of Rhode Island (never thought it was that big but that’s what they said) and when asked when it would finally be out the officials said, “We’re waiting for hurricane season.” I was down there in June.

 

[RuSnp]

If that wasn't the biggest red flag ever I don't know what was. We, like many here, got dropped from our insurance. The reason was no brush clearing in the canyon we live in. You'd think with all of the taxes we pay here we'd have the greatest public service there is. These insurance companies are experts at risk. They sounded the alarm. No one listened.

The CalFair Fire plan has about $400MM. It's being reported that they are on the hook for $24B and growing. As residents of other states who are going to be bailing us out, I would demand that accountability moving forward be part of all funds released. Simply put, we've proven not capable and being given tens of billions of dollars, and it will not be spent wisely. This will happen again.

FYI - The 400mm is an estimate of their surplus/cash on hand. Exact number isn't known/public from what I can tell. They've got north of 2bn of reinsurance as well to tap. After that it gets complicated- insurers in the state would be called on to contribute to the shortfall, and they can pass some of those costs onto the policyholders themselves.

 

[Caliknight]

Which most assuredly they will. Bottom line is Ca is going to need a massive bailout. This in addition to the unfunded liability bomb that is about to go off. For anyone paying attention, this state is in massive trouble. And this was before the fires.

Ca. is a unique state. It's really many states in size and scope, and has an outsized impact on the economics of the country as a whole.

Because of that, and the mismanagement of it, American citizens would be very well served demanding accountability. The stakes are too high and the failed decade of horrid leadership isn't just a problem for Californians, it's a problem for the entire country.

 

[vkj91]

If that wasn't the biggest red flag ever I don't know what was. We, like many here, got dropped from our insurance. The reason was no brush clearing in the canyon we live in. You'd think with all of the taxes we pay here we'd have the greatest public service there is. These insurance companies are experts at risk. They sounded the alarm. No one listened.

The CalFair Fire plan has about $400MM. It's being reported that they are on the hook for $24B and growing. As residents of other states who are going to be bailing us out, I would demand that accountability moving forward be part of all funds released. Simply put, we've proven not capable and being given tens of billions of dollars, and it will not be spent wisely. This will happen again.

You can already write the headlines to articles that will be written about the votes. One side will want a blank check while the other will demand action in exchange and the press will say a certain side is holding back money because it’s a certain colored state. See no politics in this post!

 

[Caliknight]

I can tell you this. I am at ground zero. I have never seen so many irate people at the government than I have seen now. It's not even politics. It's about failed leadership which the residents here have now had enough of. It's funny what happens when you get personally impacted.

 

[Caliknight]

I fully expect this to happen. Blackrock will be one to watch. Much more likely in Altadena than the Palisades

 

[Caliknight]

How will this happen some may ask? Eminent domain, even for the areas that didn't burn. They will be guaranteed to get far less value than their land was is worth too.

This is what will happen is my prediction.

 

[e5fdny]

How will this happen some may ask? Eminent domain, even for the areas that didn't burn. They will be guaranteed to get far less value than their land was worth too.

This is what will happen is my prediction.

"Blight' is a big word when doing something like this.

 

[Caliknight]

"Blight' is a big word when doing something like this.

Once in a lifetime opportunity for some of these private equity firms who have billions if not trillions behind them. They will partner with sovereign wealth fund of the Saudi's or the like. They will gladly take a short term loss for the long term gain.

 

[ClassOf02]

That's why State Farm and other insurance companies backed out of LA. The weather isn't a surprise and neither should be the current conditions.

Certainly part of it, but a big reason why State Farm (and others) have been pulling out of the homeowners market in CA is because of the regulatory environment. All insurance companies have to file their rates with the state, and the state needs to approve any requested rate increase a given company feels they need in order to profitably write business. California is notoriously reluctant to approve rate increase requests. It works politically to be able to say “I’m looking out for the citizens out there and keeping the big bad insurance companies at bay.” But in reality, all it does is drive insurance companies out of the state leaving residents with fewer options, less coverage, etc.

There are excess & surplus lines solutions available, but those are insane premiums with basic/minimal coverage. If the State Department of Insurance would just give a few inches on what insurance companies tell them they need, this could have been a solvable problem.

This is not just a homeowners insurance phenomenon in California. It’s also impacted insurance for small businesses. Many carriers have pulled out of the small biz insurance market in CA in recent years as well.

Insurance companies know risk…likely better than anyone/anything else. Alarm bells have been sounding from all angles based on the last 2-3 years of insurance company behavior in CA, but the State Department of Insurance has remained steadfast in its ignorance.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Certainly part of it, but a big reason why State Farm (and others) have been pulling out of the homeowners market in CA is because of the regulatory environment. All insurance companies have to file their rates with the state, and the state needs to approve any requested rate increase a given company feels they need in order to profitably write business. California is notoriously reluctant to approve rate increase requests. It works politically to be able to say “I’m looking out for the citizens out there and keeping the big bad insurance companies at bay.” But in reality, all it does is drive insurance companies out of the state leaving residents with fewer options, less coverage, etc.

There are excess & surplus lines solutions available, but those are insane premiums with basic/minimal coverage. If the State Department of Insurance would just give a few inches on what insurance companies tell them they need, this could have been a solvable problem.

This is not just a homeowners insurance phenomenon in California. It’s also impacted insurance for small businesses. Many carriers have pulled out of the small biz insurance market in CA in recent years as well.

Insurance companies know risk…likely better than anyone/anything else. Alarm bells have been sounding from all angles based on the last 2-3 years of insurance company behavior in CA, but the State Department of Insurance has remained steadfast in its ignorance.

I had a hell of a time getting homeowners and fire insurance when I moved here in 2023. I have a Fair plan, not very reassuring. I pay less than I did in LBI for flood insurance on a street that hasn’t ever flooded.

 

[e5fdny]

Certainly part of it, but a big reason why State Farm (and others) have been pulling out of the homeowners market in CA is because of the regulatory environment. All insurance companies have to file their rates with the state, and the state needs to approve any requested rate increase a given company feels they need in order to profitably write business. California is notoriously reluctant to approve rate increase requests. It works politically to be able to say “I’m looking out for the citizens out there and keeping the big bad insurance companies at bay.” But in reality, all it does is drive insurance companies out of the state leaving residents with fewer options, less coverage, etc.

I guess in NJ it's the exact opposite. LOL

 

[ClassOf02]

I had a hell of a time getting homeowners and fire insurance when I moved here in 2023. I have a Fair plan, not very reassuring. I pay less than I did in LBI for flood insurance on a street that hasn’t ever flooded.

I would be very nervous about being insured by the FAIR plan. That will almost certainly be insolvent as a result of these fires, though we’ll see how much it gets bailed out.

You can always come back to West Amwell!

 

[ashokan]

Which most assuredly they will. Bottom line is Ca is going to need a massive bailout. This in addition to the unfunded liability bomb that is about to go off. For anyone paying attention, this state is in massive trouble. And this was before the fires.

Ca. is a unique state. It's really many states in size and scope, and has an outsized impact on the economics of the country as a whole.

Because of that, and the mismanagement of it, American citizens would be very well served demanding accountability. The stakes are too high and the failed decade of horrid leadership isn't just a problem for Californians, it's a problem for the entire country.

Looking at the photos of the fire's aftermath, the destruction in CA looks just like Hiroshima (18,000 acres destroyed ).

The current story about the fires origin is centered on a Hew Year's Eve celebration fire that had to be put out, and then reignited days after. But there are multiple fires all over LA not hear NYE fire. Arsonists keep getting, arrested and with all the nuke level destruction I don't expect fires to go away. Too many kooks/terrorists/activists really stoked now

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

I fully expect this to happen. Blackrock will be one to watch. Much more likely in Altadena than the Palisades

View embedded media

This is a lie and has already been debunked.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

I would be very nervous about being insured by the FAIR plan. That will almost certainly be insolvent as a result of these fires, though we’ll see how much it gets bailed out.

You can always come back to West Amwell!

That’s always an option lol. The Fair plan will be insolvent but it seems like if there isn’t government intervention, it would be bailed out by the insurers through policy surcharges to all property insurance holders. Strange system that clearly needs to be fixed.

 

[RU848789]

Since the LA wildfire thread got locked, figured folks might still be interested in the short and long range weather forecasts for that area. Unfortunately, there is extreme fire danger for today through Wednesday with wind gusts of 20-40 mph at the lower elevations and 50-70 mph in the mountains, which combined with very dry fuels, very low humidity and ongoing wildfires means we could see continued growth in these wildfires and potentially new fires if people are not careful. It is worth noting that these winds, while extremely dangerous given the ongoing wildfires, are a decent bit lower than the 80-100 mph wind gusts that were observed with the initial wildfires last week, so hopefully the fire spread rates will not be as insane as they were.

In the longer term, unfortunately, neither the GFS nor the Euro shows any rain for SoCal for the next 14 days with the Euro showing perhaps some rain by Day 15, but that's a longshot at this point. On the other hand, wind forecasts look more reasonable after tomorrow and no obvious major Santa Ana windstorms are on the horizon for the next 5-6 days, but winds are difficult to forecast accurately beyond that; humidity will also rise some over the next few days, which will be helpful.

Hopefully after tomorrow the worst of the conditions will be over (and hopefully no more major Santa Ana winds) and recovery can begin for the tens of thousands of people who have been impacted so seriously by this tragedy. Let's try to keep this thread on point, if possible.

https://www.weather.gov/lox/

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/california-fires-winds-updates/

As hoped, conditions are improving with most of the red flag warnings having been discontinued with diminishing winds, except for the one for the Santa Susana Mountains/Western San Gabriel Mountains and I5, which should end this afternoon. And on shore flow has begun with increasing humidity near the coast and this should penetrate inland by the weekend. The much improved conditions should help fire crews to finally get most if not all of the wildfires under control. Still no rain in the forecast for the next 15 days, however, and another Santa Ana wind event (nowhere near as severe as the one last week) is possible early next week, but the models are not in agreement on that.

https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
354 AM PST Thu Jan 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/748 PM.

Locally gusty northeast winds will continue into Thursday morning
before onshore flow arrives in the afternoon. This will result in
a significant cooling trend through the weekend with higher
humidities. Another Santa Ana wind event is possible later Monday
into Tuesday. Much below normal daytime and nighttime temperatures
will continue through most of next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/302 AM.

The 9 day wind siege has finally ended. While offshore flow
remains it is only about 2 mb and most importantly will turn 1 to
2 mb onshore in the afternoon. This morning there will be local 15
to 25 mph winds across favored cst/vly locations with some higher
gusts in the mtns. Most cst/vly locations will see a 10 to 15 mph
sea breeze this afternoon which will not only bring cooler temps,
but also very welcome higher humidities. Max temps will cool 3 to
6 degrees across the csts and vlys with highs ending up mostly in
the 60s. The mtns will not see much improvement in the very low
humidities and Red Flag Conditions continue there through the
afternoon.

Another round of cold overnight lows is expected in the wind
sheltered areas tonight. At the coasts there will be chance of
some low clouds forming esp across the LA south coast and the SBA
county west coast.

The marine layer, 4 to 5 mb of onshore flow plus falling hgts will
knock an additional 4 to 8 degrees off of almost all max temps
Friday afternoon (The Antelope Vly will be the big exception and
will see some warming due to westerly downsloping flow). Most Max
temps will come within a degree or two of 60 (5 to 10 degrees blo
normal). Coastal Humidities will be around 60 percent and the vlys
around 50 percent which a huge improvement over recent values.

Looks for an even deeper marine layer on Saturday morning with
decent vly penetration. Offshore trends in the afternoon will
bring better and faster clearing as well as 2 to 4 degree warming
trend. Max temps will be 4 to 8 degrees below normals.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/315 AM.

Sunday will be a benign weather day as a little pop up ridge
develops. There will be enough offshore flow to scare away any
coastal stratus, but not enough to bring worrisome fire weather
conditions. Max temps will rise a degree or two across the
csts/vlys.

A difficult to resolve weather pattern develops early to mid next
week. Just to the east will be a very fast moving almost N to S
upper flow pattern straight out of the Canadian Rockies. To the
west three will be a not very cold upper low skirting under a
larger scale ridge. Both the EC and GFS deterministic mdls have
very different ideas about how this scenario will evolve. The
ensembles are pretty spread out as well. So this is a low
confidence forecast.

It is a forecast Srn Ca has to keep an eye one though. The EC and
some of its solutions shows a moderate offshore event Monday and
another strong offshore wind next Wednesday with an almost 10 mb
offshore push from the east. The GFS and many of its ensembles are
much weaker. Some ensembles, in fact, show little if any offshore
flow. There is more confidence that there will be low to very low
humidities during this period. Please stay tuned for updates on
this developing situation.

 

[Ty Webb]

I actually know a former LA County fire fighter, who spent much of his career stationed south of downtown LA. Caught up with him a few nights ago and it was interesting hearing his thoughts on what was going on. He said he's not surprised by what happened and it's always been a fear what might happen in some of their neighborhoods with fast moving fires like this. The current fire system/hydrant systems in these neighborhoods are not set up to battle fast moving, forest turned urban fires. They are set up like every other metropolis/town - to pour a crap ton of water on a confined area. They are not equipped to handle a fire that churns through thousands of acres and spreads to hundreds of houses in a matter of a couple of hours due to ridiculous winds. If two city blocks go up in LA, its a few hydrants open. If dozens and dozens of blocks are threatened and hundreds of homes, you are now talking dozens and dozens of hydrants open on top of the various damage pipes leaking at homes already consumed by the fire. No system can handle that kind of demand. In order to have enough water and pressure to deal with these current fires, he said you'd have to rethink the entire water delivery system.

With regards to forest/growth management he said it's actually a pretty big debate amongst experts/fire management people, etc. Said logically it makes sense to clear out dead brush and trees on hillsides, etc. but that even doing that can lead to unintended consequences. He said he had a buddy up North that was managing a controlled burn years ago. After they completed the burn, within a few months, the area was full of these native grasses/weeds that are basically tinder when they get dry, And they can grow quickly so they were finding they were clearing the same areas over and over and over.

His biggest issue with government is that they seemingly are spending money in the wrong places. He likened it to our military budget where we keep throwing money at things that either aren't working or don't need anymore funding. He said some things that got cut were programs to help neighbors understand fire risk and how to clear their properties. Inspections were cut back due to some fund cuts.

This guy is no fan of Newsom or LA's government (he and his wife moved out of California a few years ago) but said while there is more than enough blame to go around, even in a perfect scenario this thing was going to happen when you add up all the variables.

PS - Apologies to mods if this is too political. You can delete if you want.

 

[ashokan]

Victor Daivs Hanson (third generation CA famer - he knows the place) said that a lot of what burned was "old LA" from the 20s/30s. Not all current homeowners are wealthy, and they inherited legacy homes with grandfathered in low tax rates. Its not likely these folks will be able to rebuild.

Interestingly, there's school of thought in CA that sees Malibu as inherently fire prone and a bad place to build/live ecologically. Preventing fires leads to the accumulation of the fuel that causes bigger fires. The "fire as maintenance" crew sees fires as part of the area's ecology and shouldn't be suffocated. Adding to that take is resentment for the wealthy people building and living in fire areas on a wave of renegade "aristocratization" with walled palaces blocking some folks views to get a better view of their own.

Marxist writer Mike Davis wrote about "letting Malibu burn" naturally has his own corner in the history CA's natural disasters. After every fire his work pops-up in the news, and recent fires are fostering a resurrection.

The Case for Letting Malibu Burn​

https://longreads.com/2018/12/04/the-case-for-letting-malibu-burn/

There are some interesting perspectives but would they make people happy to see Malibu burn. I think that's a definite "yes."
Would people take action to cause Malibu to burn?

Experts on bureaucratic misdeeds cite two main types of operations: A) make happen and B) let happen.
At least as far as B is concerned there is a lot evidence to suggest that was possible.

Broken infrastructure left derelict for long periods (hydrants are actually stolen for scrap and not replaced) as well as degraded staff and apparatus, slovenly land management and city leadership constantly ignoring warnings highlight that there was/is an odd lack of fear/concern about fires. Fire and wind warnings went out just days before recent fire and no emergency was declared and no crews ready to respond. Leaders went on holiday right at the time they might have been most needed. None of thee things should happen in an area many recognize as a fire hazrd

 

[Caliknight]

Certainly part of it, but a big reason why State Farm (and others) have been pulling out of the homeowners market in CA is because of the regulatory environment. All insurance companies have to file their rates with the state, and the state needs to approve any requested rate increase a given company feels they need in order to profitably write business. California is notoriously reluctant to approve rate increase requests. It works politically to be able to say “I’m looking out for the citizens out there and keeping the big bad insurance companies at bay.” But in reality, all it does is drive insurance companies out of the state leaving residents with fewer options, less coverage, etc.

There are excess & surplus lines solutions available, but those are insane premiums with basic/minimal coverage. If the State Department of Insurance would just give a few inches on what insurance companies tell them they need, this could have been a solvable problem.

This is not just a homeowners insurance phenomenon in California. It’s also impacted insurance for small businesses. Many carriers have pulled out of the small biz insurance market in CA in recent years as well.

Insurance companies know risk…likely better than anyone/anything else. Alarm bells have been sounding from all angles based on the last 2-3 years of insurance company behavior in CA, but the State Department of Insurance has remained steadfast in its ignorance.

It's one constant I can tell you never wavers. The willful ignorance of those making state and local decisions. If you are an American tax paying citizen, I'd lobby your reps to not dare give this state a bailout without serious controls taken from the state itself. That money will never, ever be spent on what it was intended for.

 

[newell138]

Interesting video from 65 years ago