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Possible new playoff scenario

Doctor Worm said:
The term "good for the conference" was relevant back in the Big East days, when we were desperately trying to hold onto Automatic Qualifier status in the face of multiple defections.

It is no longer relevant.
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Disagree. For a P5 “Big Time Conference “ that hasn’t won a football championship since 2015 and a basketball championship since 2000 or so - what’s “ good for the conference” remains relevant
 
hinson32 said:
Remember when they left out Ohio State in 2014 with their 3rd string QB? Oh right they didn't and OSU won the National Championship.
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And that was controversial.

Man, that Urban Meyer knew how to coach for post-season.. and recruit QBs. How many ex-OSU QBs are NFL now? Its crazy and a reversal from the old rep OSU QBs had in the NFL.

As for the OP premise.. maybe Oregon? Lost by 3. But you know the SEC fanboys in the media will push for both Bama and Georgia and justify clicking out someone. Heck.. maybe even Texas should they beat Oklahoma.

seinfeld-jerry.gif
 
BigEastPhil said:
Disagree. For a P5 “Big Time Conference “ that hasn’t won a football championship since 2015 and a basketball championship since 2000 or so - what’s “ good for the conference” remains relevant
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Why? Public perception?

One of my most despised cliches is that "perception is reality". Sometimes it is. Sometimes it ain't. This time it ain't.

Media contracts are reality.
 
Doctor Worm said:
Why? Public perception?

One of my most despised cliches is that "perception is reality". Sometimes it is. Sometimes it ain't. This time it ain't.

Media contracts are reality.
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Only thing relative to the conf I care about is media money and how we do.

If the B1G misses the playoffs this year, they never will again.

F Michigan
 
RUtrumpet92 said:
Alabama over Georgia
Iowa over Michigan
Louisville over FSU
Oregon over Washington
Texas over Oklahoma State
Ohio State Buckeyes roasting over an open fire

Final records: 12-1: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Florida State, Texas, Alabama
Final record 11-1: Ohio State

CHAOS!
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yesrutgers01 said:
In all seriousness, what if PSU was in Michigans place?
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PSU is always the exception
 
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OK so the playoff outlook is now simplified - a little. Oregon out. Down to six.

If you are willing to assume (as I am) that Michigan beats Iowa, then we are down to eight possible scenarios:

SCENARIO 1: Georgia and FSU win. Texas loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. FSU
Straightforward and non-controversial. IMO the most interesting. Four unbeatens! Tee it up and let's see whose best of the best.

SCENARIO 2: Georgia, FSU, and Texas all win.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. FSU
Depending on margins of victory and the FSU QB situation, there will no doubt be an argument for Texas to leapfrog FSU. But it will not carry the day.

SCENARIO 3: Georgia and Texas win, FSU loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. Texas
Conference Champion Texas leapfrogs idle Ohio State. That's the price you pay for missing your conference championship game.

SCENARIO 4: Georgia wins, Texas and FSU loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. Ohio State
This is the only scenario in which OSU makes it. They are safely on the other side of the bracket from Michigan. No immediate rematch.

And now it gets interesting:

SCENARIO 5: Alabama beats Georgia, Texas and FSU both lose.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Alabama
  4. Georgia
The only scenario in which Georgia backs in with a loss. No immediate rematch with Alabama.

SCENARIO 6: Alabama beats Georgia, Texas wins, FSU loses.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
Texas is seeded higher than Alabama, see Scenario 8 below.

SCENARIO 7: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU wins, Texas loses.
  1. MIchigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Alabama
Some say Georgia has already clinched its spot, win or lose. They are wrong.

And now for my personal favorite:

SCENARIO 8: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU and Texas both win.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Texas
A-yup. The SEC gets shut out. I mean, you can't rate Georgia over conference champion Alabama, can you? And you can't rate Alabama over Texas, who beat them by double digits in Tuscaloosa, can you?

Obviously, if Iowa does somehow beat Michigan, this gums up with works further.

Enjoy Championship Saturday! For better or worse, we will never have this opportunity again.
 
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Doctor Worm said:
OK so the playoff outlook is now simplified - a little. Oregon out. Down to six.

If you are willing to assume (as I am) that Michigan beats Iowa, then we are down to eight possible scenarios:

SCENARIO 1: Georgia and FSU win. Texas loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. FSU
Straightforward and non-controversial. IMO the most interesting. Four unbeatens! Tee it up and let's see whose best of the best.

SCENARIO 2: Georgia, FSU, and Texas all win.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. FSU
Depending on margins of victory and the FSU QB situation, there will no doubt be an argument for Texas to leapfrog FSU. But it will not carry the day.

SCENARIO 3: Georgia and Texas win, FSU loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. Texas
Conference Champion Texas leapfrogs idle Ohio State. That's the price you pay for missing your conference championship game.

SCENARIO 4: Georgia wins, Texas and FSU loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. Ohio State
This is the only scenario in which OSU makes it. They are safely on the other side of the bracket from Michigan. No immediate rematch.

And now it gets interesting:

SCENARIO 5: Alabama beats Georgia, Texas and FSU both lose.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Alabama
  4. Georgia
The only scenario in which Georgia backs in with a loss. No immediate rematch with Alabama.

SCENARIO 6: Alabama beats Georgia, Texas wins, FSU loses.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
Texas is seeded higher than Alabama, see Scenario 8 below.

SCENARIO 7: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU wins, Texas loses.
  1. MIchigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Alabama
Some say Georgia has already clinched its spot, win or lose. They are wrong.

And now for my personal favorite:

SCENARIO 8: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU and Texas both win.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Texas
A-yup. The SEC gets shut out. I mean, you can't rate Georgia over conference champion Alabama, can you? And you can't rate Alabama over Texas, who beat them by double digits in Tuscaloosa, can you?

Obviously, if Iowa does somehow beat Michigan, this gums up with works further.

Enjoy Championship Saturday! For better or worse, we will never have this opportunity again.
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Almost entirely agree with this, great work. I’m still a little puzzled by Ohio Stere being ranked ahead of Texas coming into the week. Does a close win today by Texas as a 2 td favorite hurt them? That’s one to watch. The other is if Alabama wins. I can’t see them keeping the SEC out, but obviously the justification to do it is there.
 
"Scenario 8"... I think if Bama beats Georgia a "poor performance win" by FSU tonight might knock them out. Every talking head will be saying "FSU with their 3rd string qb or Bama on a neutral field - this is supposed to be the 4 best teams?" But more importantly would the committee have the guts to leave out the SEC?

I think FSU needs to win comfortably tonight. The Louisville loss to Kentucky last week was damaging.
 
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Doctor Worm said:
OK so the playoff outlook is now simplified - a little. Oregon out. Down to six.

If you are willing to assume (as I am) that Michigan beats Iowa, then we are down to eight possible scenarios:

SCENARIO 1: Georgia and FSU win. Texas loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. FSU
Straightforward and non-controversial. IMO the most interesting. Four unbeatens! Tee it up and let's see whose best of the best.

SCENARIO 2: Georgia, FSU, and Texas all win.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. FSU
Depending on margins of victory and the FSU QB situation, there will no doubt be an argument for Texas to leapfrog FSU. But it will not carry the day.

SCENARIO 3: Georgia and Texas win, FSU loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. Texas
Conference Champion Texas leapfrogs idle Ohio State. That's the price you pay for missing your conference championship game.

SCENARIO 4: Georgia wins, Texas and FSU loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. Ohio State
This is the only scenario in which OSU makes it. They are safely on the other side of the bracket from Michigan. No immediate rematch.

And now it gets interesting:

SCENARIO 5: Alabama beats Georgia, Texas and FSU both lose.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Alabama
  4. Georgia
The only scenario in which Georgia backs in with a loss. No immediate rematch with Alabama.

SCENARIO 6: Alabama beats Georgia, Texas wins, FSU loses.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
Texas is seeded higher than Alabama, see Scenario 8 below.

SCENARIO 7: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU wins, Texas loses.
  1. MIchigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Alabama
Some say Georgia has already clinched its spot, win or lose. They are wrong.

And now for my personal favorite:

SCENARIO 8: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU and Texas both win.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Texas
A-yup. The SEC gets shut out. I mean, you can't rate Georgia over conference champion Alabama, can you? And you can't rate Alabama over Texas, who beat them by double digits in Tuscaloosa, can you?

Obviously, if Iowa does somehow beat Michigan, this gums up with works further.

Enjoy Championship Saturday! For better or worse, we will never have this opportunity again.
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Can't they rate Georgia over Alabama or Alabama over Texas?
See OSU over PSU in 2017(?).

The one caveat - PSU had 2 losses and OSU only had 1 that year so that was the justification. No extra losses would be involved with Texas, Bama, Georgia.

But there are no rules. The committee can do whatever it wants and sets new precedents annually.

That's my point in mentioning FSU could get left out even though undefeated.
The committee can make up new rules however they want.
There is a non-zero chance anything can happen.
 
Doctor Worm said:
OK so the playoff outlook is now simplified - a little. Oregon out. Down to six.

If you are willing to assume (as I am) that Michigan beats Iowa, then we are down to eight possible scenarios:

SCENARIO 1: Georgia and FSU win. Texas loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. FSU
Straightforward and non-controversial. IMO the most interesting. Four unbeatens! Tee it up and let's see whose best of the best.

SCENARIO 2: Georgia, FSU, and Texas all win.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. FSU
Depending on margins of victory and the FSU QB situation, there will no doubt be an argument for Texas to leapfrog FSU. But it will not carry the day.

SCENARIO 3: Georgia and Texas win, FSU loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. Texas
Conference Champion Texas leapfrogs idle Ohio State. That's the price you pay for missing your conference championship game.

SCENARIO 4: Georgia wins, Texas and FSU loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. Ohio State
This is the only scenario in which OSU makes it. They are safely on the other side of the bracket from Michigan. No immediate rematch.

And now it gets interesting:

SCENARIO 5: Alabama beats Georgia, Texas and FSU both lose.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Alabama
  4. Georgia
The only scenario in which Georgia backs in with a loss. No immediate rematch with Alabama.

SCENARIO 6: Alabama beats Georgia, Texas wins, FSU loses.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
Texas is seeded higher than Alabama, see Scenario 8 below.

SCENARIO 7: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU wins, Texas loses.
  1. MIchigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Alabama
Some say Georgia has already clinched its spot, win or lose. They are wrong.

And now for my personal favorite:

SCENARIO 8: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU and Texas both win.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Texas
A-yup. The SEC gets shut out. I mean, you can't rate Georgia over conference champion Alabama, can you? And you can't rate Alabama over Texas, who beat them by double digits in Tuscaloosa, can you?

Obviously, if Iowa does somehow beat Michigan, this gums up with works further.

Enjoy Championship Saturday! For better or worse, we will never have this opportunity again.
Click to expand...
I am hearing a lot (especially on ESPN outlets) how in your scenario 8 they couldn’t leave the SEC out, even some talking heads trying to sell the idea that barring a blowout loss Georgia shouldn’t be able to drop from #1 to out of the playoff regardless of the scenario.

If Texas wins and there aren’t 4 undefeated teams, it sends a horrible message to leave them out. Texas played Alabama on the road and won by double digits. Not rewarding Texas for doing that basically tells schools to never play a challenging OCC game because there is no upside to doing it.
 
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krup said:
I am hearing a lot (especially on ESPN outlets) how in your scenario 8 they couldn’t leave the SEC out, even some talking heads trying to sell the idea that barring a blowout loss Georgia shouldn’t be able to drop from #1 to out of the playoff regardless of the scenario.

If Texas wins and there aren’t 4 undefeated teams, it sends a horrible message to leave them out. Texas played Alabama on the road and won by double digits. Not rewarding Texas for doing that basically tells schools to never play a challenging OCC game because there is no upside to doing it.
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That’s a good point about scheduling.
 
krup said:
I am hearing a lot (especially on ESPN outlets) how in your scenario 8 they couldn’t leave the SEC out, even some talking heads trying to sell the idea that barring a blowout loss Georgia shouldn’t be able to drop from #1 to out of the playoff regardless of the scenario.

If Texas wins and there aren’t 4 undefeated teams, it sends a horrible message to leave them out. Texas played Alabama on the road and won by double digits. Not rewarding Texas for doing that basically tells schools to never play a challenging OCC game because there is no upside to doing it.
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I can see the point about Bama in and Texas out, and I understand why Texas and their fans would be unhappy.

No doubt on that day in September that Texas was better. But, we don’t say OU is better than Texas even though that was the result of their game played.

The ranking is for the whole season, and if you look at their better opponents, things are fairly close right now. The significant difference happens in their CCG opponents. If Bama can prevail it would give them two 1-loss opponents whereas Texas would have one. That tips the scales to me. A team plays all its games and how difficult was it to achieve the record y the hey have?

One last thing. I grew up when ties happened, and I wish they still occurred. Besides OU, there was another game this season when Texas was not better than their opponent in a regulation 60 minute game. People would think differently of Texas if they were 10-1-1.

I am expecting UGA to win though.
 
All of this debating over who should get in is why I can't wait for next year's 12-team playoff. Realistically, there are 8 to 10 teams that could win it all this year and only 4 get in
 
With Texas' emphatic victory, we are now down to six teams for four spots. OSU no longer has a path.

I am redoing the eight scenarios, this time including the theoretical (IMO) possibility that Iowa beats Michigan.

SCENARIO 1: Georgia, FSU, and MIchigan all win.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. FSU
Sorry Bevo. Take solace in the knowledge that never again will one single loss cost you a playoff spot.

SCENARIO 2: Georgia and MIchigan win, FSU loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Washington
  4. Texas
Conference Champion Texas leapfrogs idle Ohio State. That's the price you pay for missing your conference championship game.

SCENARIO 3: Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan wins, FSU loses.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
IMO it's Texas, Alabama, and Georgia, in that order. Georgia is left without a chair when the music stops.

SCENARIO 4: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU and Michigan both win.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Texas
In this case it's FSU, Texas, Alabama, and Georgia, in that order. Four teams, two chairs. Sorry SEC.

And now to consider the unlikely event of a Michigan defeat,

SCENARIO 5: Georgia and FSU win, Michigan loses.
  1. Georgia
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Texas
B1G gets shut out. Tough to pick a one-loss conference championship loser, over a one-loss conference championship winner. Too tough for me to do anyway.

SCENARIO 6: Georgia wins. FSU and Michigan both lose.
  1. Georgia
  2. Washington
  3. Texas
  4. Michigan
MIchigan's head to head win over Ohio State gets them the nod.

SCENARIO 7: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU wins, Michigan loses.
  1. Washington
  2. FSU
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
With the Alabama win, the Texas > Alabama > Georgia relationship continues to hold.

SCENARIO 8: Alabama beats Georgia, FSU and Michigan both lose.
  1. Washington
  2. Texas
  3. Alabama
  4. Georgia
OK chaos fans! Which loser do you take for the last spot - Georgia or Michigan? May depend on the eye test and how competitive the games are.
 
JayDogSmooth said:
Music to my ears if they make it
Word around Charlotte is win and we’re in
Now the hard part is actually winning
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No way an undefeated Florida State with a win over LSU should be out. BTW, the entire out the best teams in argument is idiotic. It is all based on theory not facts.

- Oregon was a 9.5 favorite over a team
they had already lost to. Why? because "experts" thought they looked better.
- How many experts ly told us Michigan was better than TCU.
 
Mufasa94 said:
I can see the point about Bama in and Texas out, and I understand why Texas and their fans would be unhappy.

No doubt on that day in September that Texas was better. But, we don’t say OU is better than Texas even though that was the result of their game played.

The ranking is for the whole season, and if you look at their better opponents, things are fairly close right now. The significant difference happens in their CCG opponents. If Bama can prevail it would give them two 1-loss opponents whereas Texas would have one. That tips the scales to me. A team plays all its games and how difficult was it to achieve the record y the hey have?

One last thing. I grew up when ties happened, and I wish they still occurred. Besides OU, there was another game this season when Texas was not better than their opponent in a regulation 60 minute game. People would think differently of Texas if they were 10-1-1.

I am expecting UGA to win though.
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We aren’t saying OU is better than Texas because OU went on to lose more games.

To try and argue that a one loss Alabama team is better than the one loss Texas team they lost in their home stadium to by double digits is a total SEC bias distortion of reality.

It isn’t even like you can argue that Alabama has gone on to look dominant since the Texas loss. They went on to barely beat USF, needed a Daniels injury to get by LSU, and just last week needed a miracle to beat a bad Auburn team that was crushed by NMSU.
 
hinson32 said:
No way an undefeated Florida State with a win over LSU should be out. BTW, the entire out the best teams in argument is idiotic. It is all based on theory not facts.

- Oregon was a 9.5 favorite over a team
they had already lost to. Why? because "experts" thought they looked better.
- How many experts ly told us Michigan was better than TCU.
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But you understand yours is a circular argument. What league does LSU play in? They're the 5th best team in that league. But you're going to leave that league's champion out of a playoff which they've dominated since its inception? I'll believe it when I see it.
 
MGSA99 said:
Could very well come down to this tonight:

FSU wins they are in. If not, Texas is in.
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If the other two favorites (Georgia and Michigan) win, it will come down to exactly that.

If either or both don't, then things get interesting.
 
Doctor Worm said:
If the other two favorites (Georgia and Michigan) win, it will come down to exactly that.

If either or both don't, then things get interesting.
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very interesting....if bama wins by 10...Could you see 2 sec teams in before Texas if FSU loses..?.
 
The certainty here that a victorious Bama WON'T sneak into the 4 seed is sort of amazing to me. Nobody knows what will happen but - again - I can't see the committee leaving out the SEC champ. I don't care that FSU might be undefeated. The loss of their qb gives the committee an out. Just my opinion.
 
RuSnp said:
The certainty here that a victorious Bama WON'T sneak into the 4 seed is sort of amazing to me. Nobody knows what will happen but - again - I can't see the committee leaving out the SEC champ. I don't care that FSU might be undefeated. The loss of their qb gives the committee an out. Just my opinion.
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I for one do not believe the sec will be left out if Alabama wins. I actually think getting two of them in is more likely than none.
 
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Rutgers Chris said:
I for one do not believe the sec will be left out if Alabama wins. I actually think getting two of them in is more likely than none.
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Just so I'm clear. I 'liked' your reasoning, not the idea of two sec teams. These are not vintage Bama or UGA teams - I think Michigan would handle both.
 
Is a win over Top 8 Georgian and loss to Top 8 Texas better than an undefeated season with worse wins?

FSU best win is LSU?
Bama beat them as well so that kinda cancels out.

What is Bama SOS against FSU SOS?
 
NickRU714 said:
Is a win over Top 8 Georgian and loss to Top 8 Texas better than an undefeated season with best win over

FSU best win is LSU?
Bama beat them as well so that kinda cancels out.

What is Bama SOS against FSU SOS?
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Yup that's my point. And you got all the power of the SEC and its sycophants too. Florida isn't even a bowl team this year and the ACC is really down. Again just a nobody's opinion but if I'm FSU the goal tonight has to be blowout, not win.
 
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I think it’s Washington, Michigan, Georgia and Alabama. They did this before with two SEC teams. FL State prob loses and Michigan wins. Texas might be in and Georgia is out.
 
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rutgersdave said:
I think it’s Washington, Michigan, Georgia and Alabama. They did this before with two SEC teams.
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I think Texas over Georgia. Texas is basically an SEC team soon anyway. Mich-Bama. Washington-Texas. Mich-Texas final. Until Mich loses to Iowa tonight lmao
 
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RuSnp said:
I think Texas over Georgia. Texas is basically an SEC team soon anyway. Mich-Bama. Washington-Texas. Mich-Texas final. Until Mich loses to Iowa tonight lmao
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I rather have Texas, don’t give Georgia a chance for a third championship. Texas jumps Ohio State.
 
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We got CHAOS!

Down to four scenarios. Here goes:

SCENARIO 1: Michigan wins, FSU loses.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
IMO it's Texas, Alabama, and Georgia, in that order. Georgia is left without a chair when the music stops.

SCENARIO 2: FSU and Michigan both win.
  1. Michigan
  2. Washington
  3. FSU
  4. Texas
In this case it's FSU, Texas, Alabama, and Georgia, in that order. Four teams, two chairs. Sorry SEC.

And now to consider the unlikely event of a Michigan defeat,

SCENARIO 3: FSU wins, Michigan loses.
  1. Washington
  2. FSU
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
With the Alabama win, the Texas > Alabama > Georgia relationship continues to hold.

SCENARIO 4: FSU and Michigan both lose.
  1. Washington
  2. Texas
  3. Alabama
  4. Georgia
OK chaos fans! Which loser do you take for the last spot - Georgia or Michigan? IMO Georgia was sufficiently competitive to take it.

I am sure of this and this alone - each of these remaining scenarios will create controversy. All of the clearcut ones are gone, courtesy of Alabama.
 
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